Podcast Summary: "Ukraine: The Latest"

Episode: Putin spends 50% of state budget on military, says intelligence service & Russia tests turning pigeons into drones
Date: February 5, 2026
Host: Francis Durnley
Guests: Dom Nicholls (Associate Editor, Defence), James Kilner (Russia Analyst), Antonia Langford (Foreign Reporter, Kyiv)

Episode Overview

This episode dissects multiple dramatic updates on the war in Ukraine, focusing especially on:

• Russia’s staggering military spending (50% of state budget)
• The evolving chaos on the Russian front after losing Starlink connectivity
• North Korean troops fighting under Russian command
• The dire energy and humanitarian situation in Kyiv
• The resumption of Ukraine-Russia prisoner exchanges during US-backed peace talks in Abu Dhabi
• A bizarre report on Russian efforts to engineer “pigeon drones”
• Russia’s worsening economic woes under sanctions and ballooning war expenditures

Tone: Analytical, sometimes wry or darkly humorous, with deeply informed on-the-ground perspectives.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. War Updates & Military Tech (03:17–16:03)

Missile Strikes and Starlink Catastrophe (03:17–07:02)

• Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s Kapustin Yar airfield—the seat of intercontinental ballistic missile testing—using indigenous “Flamingo” long-range missiles (03:17).
• Russian frontline troops plunged into turmoil after losing Starlink satellite network access, following new restrictions coordinated by Ukraine’s government and SpaceX to block Russian use (04:00).
  • Russian millbloggers lament loss of vital connection: “This will hit harder than anywhere at our frontline assault groups... They will be deprived of any chance of connection with the wider world. Alas.” (05:00)
  • OSINT analyst “Cloud” sharply notes the irony:
    “How did the self-proclaimed second army of the world… become so pathetically dependent on a wi-fi connection provided by a US company? …you can’t really fight NATO when your entire military command structure is one terms of service violation away from total silence. It’s a masterclass in geopolitical clownery.” (06:00)

North Korean Troops Fight Under Russian Command (07:04–09:02)

• Ukraine’s military intelligence says North Korean troops are fighting under Russian command in the Kursk region, launching border attacks and operating artillery and drones.
  • About 6,000 of 12,000 deployed North Koreans are estimated casualties.
• The hosts discuss murky boundaries:
  “If North Korean troops are actually involved in Ukraine, it has massive ramifications for the arguments that Western troops can’t enter Ukraine without it being an escalation.” — Francis Durnley (08:20)

Energy Crisis & Continued Russian Bombardment (09:02–11:30)

• Massive blackouts in Zaporizhzhia after Russian strikes; 156 of 183 Russian drones intercepted by Ukrainian air defense, but with notable injuries in Kyiv.
• Russia is increasingly targeting logistics—“G-LOCs”—and drone operators behind the front, using drones for mining and “drone ambushes”.
• Ukrainian brigades now rely more heavily on ground drones for resupply.

Russia’s Expanding Drone Operations (12:50–14:15)

• Russia reorganizes its 87,000-strong drone force, separating out the “Rubicon” unit (elite drone innovation force) for improved coordination.

Massive Increase in Russian Military Spending (14:16–15:15)

• German BND intelligence: Russia spent ~€250bn (50% of state spending, 10% of GDP) on military in 2025, up from 6% GDP at the start of the war.
  • Hidden spending includes construction, IT, and increased benefits for military personnel.

Latest Prisoner Exchange (15:20)

• 157 Ukrainians, some captive since 2022, exchanged for 157 Russians—marked as real progress amid the Abu Dhabi talks.

2. Abu Dhabi Peace Talks, POWs & Nuclear Tensions (16:03–23:12)

• Abu Dhabi Talks (16:03): Second day just finished, the only concrete result being the resumption of major prisoner exchanges.

  • For Ukraine, POWs are a rallying cry—the domestic movement for their return is immense.
  • Despite ongoing peace efforts, Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukraine have doubled year-over-year (32,000 drones launched in 2025), challenging claims that Moscow is holding back during diplomacy.

• Nuclear Arms Treaty Expiry (19:00):

  • New START treaty expires, Russia blames US for refusing an extension.
  • Russia issues saber-rattling: “We remain prepared to take decisive military technical countermeasures...”
    —Russian Foreign Ministry (20:00)
  • Host:
    “My dad always says you can’t expect to sit at the table if you haven’t got any cutlery. And as cutlery goes, nuclear weapons continue to be the shiniest in town, unfortunately.” — Francis Durnley (21:39)

• US Politics & Sanctions:

  • Trump yet to state New START policy; seeks to involve China in future deals.
  • EU says Russia’s war economy could become “unsustainable” in 2026 due to sanctions, but the team notes past predictions of collapse have been premature.

3. Kyiv Live: Hardship, Morale, and Political Fallout (23:12–26:55)

Life in Blacked-Out Kyiv (23:12–24:19)

• Antonia Langford:
  “I’m actually in a friend’s apartment right now. My entire district is in blackout... now people are back to having sort of two or three hours of access to electricity and heat per day. There are huge water shortages… Kyiv thermal power plant is said to have been completely obliterated in the strikes early on Tuesday.” (23:12)

Ukrainians’ Views on Peace Talks (24:22–25:19)

• Most ordinary people in Kyiv are unaware or indifferent; general cynicism towards peace talks given Russia’s behavior.
  • American Foreign Legion soldier:
    “Of the three parties involved... only Ukraine is being sincere in its approach. So you can make of that what you will.” (24:56)

Domestic Political Infighting (25:19–26:55)

• Zelensky’s criticism of Kyiv’s authorities after the energy crisis is seen as justified by many, reflecting widespread blame for lack of preparedness.
• The spat slightly damages morale and underscores political friction with Mayor Klitschko.

4. Russia’s Economic Crisis & International Maneuvers (28:46–36:58)

Collapsing State Revenues and Economic Warnings (28:46–32:29)

• Half the year-on-year income: Russia’s budget is reeling: oil and gas revenues have halved, and India (major buyer) signals cuts to Russian oil imports.

• Welfare Fund Freezes: The National Welfare Fund may halt all project financing, a major fiscal blow.

• Banking Woes: Russian banks face rising problematic loans (11% corporate, 6% retail), with even a Top-10 bank posting losses due to default risks.

• Regional Debts at 15-year highs: Regions struggle after spending heavily to recruit soldiers.

• Declining car sales and GDP growth slowed to 1%; Russia’s civil economy may soon tip into recession.

• Anecdote:
  Gazprom tests flying passenger planes on recycled McDonald's (“Kusna E Toshna”) cooking oil (31:57) as a sign of cost-saving desperation.

Russia’s Focus on Africa and the Middle East (32:29–35:38)

• Putin instructs increased military aid and weapons deals with African states; Israel’s foreign minister visits Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to shore up alliances in “Russia’s backyard,” showing Moscow’s shrinking regional influence.

Russian Press on Epstein Scandal (35:38–36:58)

• Russian state media uses the Jeffrey Epstein scandal to discredit Western elites as “self-interested and decadent,” while carefully protecting Trump and ignoring scant references to Putin.

5. Russia’s “Pigeon Drone” Project (37:20–39:13)

The Pigeon Cyborg Story

• Russian startup claims to have developed “pigeon bio-drones” (PJN1), with electrodes for remote mid-flight steering and solar-powered “backpacks,” potentially for surveillance or delivering bioweapons.
  • Antonia Langford:
    “It’s a bit less sleek than you might imagine... a regular pigeon has electrodes inserted through its skull... and wears a solar-powered backpack carrying a controller preloaded with a flight path… in theory, the handler can then guide the pigeon remotely and scout its surroundings using a camera, which is strapped rather conspicuously to its chest.” (37:20)
  • Science is unverified; the company denies military use, though promotional material suggests otherwise. Experts warn of covert surveillance or bioweapon potential.

Historical Anecdotes

• Stories recounted of carrier pigeons in WWII and even 1979 Zimbabwe war reporting.
• Dom Nicholls on pigeon nostalgia:
  “No, not come across pigeons... We had a lot of dogs, a lot of horses.” (39:33)
• “Bridge Too Far” film and atmospheric reminiscences on war reporting close out the segment.

6. Final Reflections & Notable Quotes (43:53–48:19)

On Peace Talks and Media Cuts

• Dom Nicholls:
  “I’m keeping an eye on Abu Dhabi—if nothing comes out, then what’s the world going to say? What’s Donald Trump going to say? …We can’t just go, oh, that was a nice few days of chit chat and they’re going to meet again at some point.” (43:53)

• The Washington Post shutters its foreign desk, including Ukraine correspondents.
  Francis Durnley:
  “The world is becoming less America-centric by the minute while the US is becoming more America-centric than ever. What a perfect encapsulation of where we have arrived.” (44:42)

Russian Positions Harden

• James Kilner:
  “The Kremlin... now expected the entire world, not just Ukraine and the US to accept that Donbass would be Russian. I think that is actually slightly moving the posts. I think they’re particularly aiming that at Europeans...” (46:15)

Kyiv’s Endurance

• Antonia Langford:
  “Even in these unlivable conditions, polling has shown this week that Ukrainians, a majority of Ukrainians, still categorically reject accepting any of Moscow’s maximalist demands on territory in exchange for security guarantees. And I think that’s a really exceptional and inspiring thing.” (47:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can’t really fight NATO when your entire military command structure is one terms of service violation away from total silence. It’s a masterclass in geopolitical clownery.” — Dom Nicholls, quoting OSINT analyst Cloud (06:00)
• “50% of Russia’s state budget is going on its military—and its true defense spending is 66% higher than is officially declared.” — Dom Nicholls (14:16)
• “I’m watching people clambering up the hill with no street lights, looking at buildings with no lights… listening to this roar of generators... polling shows a majority of Ukrainians still categorically reject any of Moscow’s maximalist demands. That’s exceptional and inspiring.” — Antonia Langford (47:41)
• “Pigeon bio-drones… a regular pigeon has electrodes inserted through its skull… the handler can then guide the pigeon remotely... the imagery is extraordinary.” — Antonia Langford (37:20)
• “The world is becoming less America-centric by the minute while the US is becoming more America-centric than ever. What a perfect encapsulation of where we have arrived.” — Francis Durnley (44:42)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:17 | Strikes on Russia’s missile hub; Starlink panic on Russian front; “clownery” | | 07:04 | North Korean troops under Russian command, casualties, and implications | | 09:02 | Blackouts in Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv; Drone warfare escalation | | 14:16 | Russia’s true military expenditure surges to half of budget | | 15:20 | Major prisoner exchange tied to Abu Dhabi peace talks | | 16:03 | Analysis of Abu Dhabi talks and nuclear treaty expiry | | 23:12 | First-hand from Kyiv: humanitarian and morale crisis, political infighting | | 28:46 | Russian oil/gas revenue collapse; banking woes and national fund freeze | | 31:57 | Flying passenger planes on used McDonald’s oil (anecdote about budget cuts) | | 37:20 | Russian pigeon “bio-drone” experiments explained and critiqued | | 43:53 | Final thoughts: peace talks, press layoffs, media’s global myopia | | 47:41 | Ukrainians’ resilience under blackout, still refusing territorial concessions |

In Summary

Episode underscores Russia’s mounting economic and strategic vulnerabilities, Ukraine’s stunning civilian resolve amid collapse and blackout, and the Kafkaesque absurdity of modern conflict (exemplified by pigeon-drones). Powerful testimony and analysis make clear that, despite diplomatic motions, both military escalation and societal suffering continue unabated.