Podcast Summary: "Ukraine: The Latest"
Episode Title: Revealed: Trump and Putin’s $12 trillion partnership plan & wargaming a Russian attack on NATO with Lt Gen Ben Hodges
Date: February 9, 2026
Host(s): David Knowles, Francis Durnley
Guest: Retired Lt Gen Ben Hodges (former commander, US Army Europe)
Episode Overview
This episode explores a series of major geopolitical developments related to Russia's war in Ukraine and wider European security:
- Revelations about a purported $12 trillion Russia–Trump administration economic deal ("the Dmitriev package")
- President Zelensky's warnings regarding US–Russia peace negotiations and implications for Ukraine's sovereignty
- An in-depth interview with Ret. Lt Gen Ben Hodges about a recent NATO war game simulating a Russian incursion in the Baltics, the readiness of Western allies, and the risks posed by a divided NATO
- Key updates from Ukraine and across the international diplomatic stage
The tone is urgent, skeptical, and at times wry, with the hosts analyzing both frontline realities and back-room diplomacy.
Key Themes & Discussion Points
1. Assassination Attempt in Moscow & Security Incidents
-
[00:38–04:00]
- Russian Lt General Alekseyev survives an assassination attempt in Moscow. Russian FSB blames a Ukrainian-born pensioner, Lyubir Korba, arrested in Dubai and extradited.
- Ukraine denies involvement, suggesting Kremlin infighting is responsible.
- Ukrainian soldier killed in Odessa car bombing—seen as part of escalating tit-for-tat terror attacks.
- Technological developments: Ukrainian drone shoots down a Russian Shahed drone with backward-facing missiles, reflecting ongoing drone warfare innovation.
“It’s the result of a power struggle inside the Kremlin’s elite, the so-called siloviki.” — David Knowles [01:38]
2. Ukraine's Defense Industry & Diplomacy
-
[04:00–12:42]
- President Zelensky announces new arms export centers in Europe, highlighting Ukraine’s growing domestic arms industry.
- Ukraine and France sign a letter of intent for joint arms production, signaling a move from mere “supplies to joint production and long-term solutions.”
- Questions arise on whether European defense sovereignty arguments are cover to protect domestic arms industries from Ukrainian competition.
“Ukraine began in 2023 to pursue its long-term objective of ensuring self-sufficiency... so Ukraine could be less reliant on foreign military provisions.” — David Knowles [06:15]
3. The 'Anchorage Agreement' and U.S.-Russia Relations
-
[12:42–15:53]
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov laments the collapse of so-called “Anchorage Agreement”—an alleged U.S.-Russia bargain for Ukraine to cede Donbas. America, he claims, has backtracked.
- Hosts debunk the narrative, with Knowles calling it “the Schrodinger’s Anchorage Agreement.”
- Lavrov accuses the Trump administration of refusing to uphold deals, using this as leverage in Russia’s negotiation stance.
“Russia and this lot in charge at the moment, they are a cruel and joyless burst of flatulence from history. But they are not stupid.” — David Knowles [14:54]
4. Zelensky's Warning on U.S.-Russia $12 Trillion Deal
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[12:43–15:54; 15:54–17:00]
- President Zelensky warns that Russia offered the Trump administration a $12 trillion economic package—the “Dmitriev package”—to tempt U.S. private sector cooperation as part of backchannel peace talks.
- Zelensky insists any deal affecting Ukraine cannot override its constitutional sovereignty, especially over territorial matters.
- Discussion about U.S. domestic politics: Will Trump’s donors expect payoffs from peace negotiations? Might this tie into his midterm campaign strategies?
“Moscow’s strategy [is] to seduce this business-minded White House ... a warning to Europe and of course the Ukrainian population.” — Francis Durnley [13:57]
5. International Sanctions and Political Maneuvering
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[15:54–22:27]
- European Union proposes an ambitious 20th sanctions package, moving toward a full ban on services supporting Russian oil exports.
- U.S. policy in flux: sanctions legislation remains sluggish; diplomatic frictions escalate between the U.S. and Polish leadership.
- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban deploys anti-Ukraine rhetoric for domestic advantage, labeling Ukraine an enemy if it seeks to halt Russian energy imports.
- Moldovan leadership takes an opposing tone, with Maia Sandu declining a Nobel Peace Prize nomination, requesting it go instead to Ukrainian POWs.
- Japan’s snap election: strong victory for PM Sina Takeachi, with promise to revise pacifist constitution—a potentially historic regional shift.
“Almost all the news from the U.S. makes grim reading for Ukraine and its allies.” — Francis Durnley [17:00]
6. Wargaming a Russian Attack on NATO: Interview with Lt Gen Ben Hodges
a) War Game Insights
-
[22:27–29:38]
- Recently published war game: simulates swift Russian seizure of the Suwalki Gap (a vulnerable Baltic land corridor).
- Hodges cautions: war games are not hard predictions, but analytical tools. He notes this simulation underplayed the critical role of NATO air power and the importance of “total defense”—involving whole-of-society concepts beyond military forces.
“War games serve the purpose of analyzing various aspects of operations... but this is not a prediction.” — Ben Hodges [23:23]
b) Military Mobility & Readiness
-
[29:38–33:35]
- Real-world limitations: troop movement in Europe remains slow due to infrastructure and bureaucratic bottlenecks; key to deterrence is demonstrating the ability to deploy forces rapidly in peacetime.
- Air and missile defense largely unevaluated by European militaries at scale seen nightly in Ukraine.
“It still takes too long to move adequate capability to NATO’s eastern flank ... this is about deterrence.” — Ben Hodges [32:17]
c) Likelihood of Russian Success
- [25:22–26:01]
- Hodges doubts a Russian attack could unfold as war gamers suggested without warning.
- Asserts that in event of open aggression, Kaliningrad would be rapidly isolated: “I am pretty certain that Kaliningrad will be taken off the board immediately.”
- Accuses current U.S. administration of “doing a terrible job ... almost all the pressure has been on the Ukrainian side.”
d) Hybrid and Drone Warfare Evolutions
-
[37:48–42:06]
- Both sides innovate in drone tactics: Russia’s 90,000-strong drone force has reach, but limited exploitation ability because of poorly trained infantry.
- Ukraine’s adaptation is seen in deep strikes and minimizing troop exposure.
- Consensus: modern warfare is evolving toward layered, attritable (expendable) drone-based defenses, but will always be backed by conventional “heavy metal.”
“You don’t have to have all your troops up on the border... you can use these things like rounds of ammunition.” — Ben Hodges [42:06]
e) Political Fractures Within NATO
-
[42:43–45:31]
- Increasing intellectual split in NATO, with Baltic and Nordic states more alert to the Russian threat compared to major Western European powers.
- U.S. political ambiguity fuels risk of Russian miscalculations; “The cohesion of the alliance has always been the secret sauce.”
- Article 5 (the NATO collective defense clause) is ultimately a political decision—its deterrent value depends on conviction in allied unity.
“If there’s ever doubt about whether or not the US would show up, that’s a chink in the armor.” — Ben Hodges [44:17]
“Article 5 is a political decision. It’s not a laser beam ... There’s no trigger.” — Ben Hodges [47:51]
f) Recommendations for European Security
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[49:47–52:38]
- Hodges urges large-scale NATO air defense exercises, better drone response, punishment of Russia’s shadow shipping fleet.
- Predicts continued stalemate unless external shocks or bolder Western action disrupt Russia’s war effort; calls for more aggressive targeting of Russia’s oil and gas sector.
“The best way to protect Europe is to help Ukraine defeat Russia. Then you don’t have these scenarios like the one we discussed at the beginning.” — Ben Hodges [36:05]
7. Closing Analysis and Media Commentary
- [53:00–56:41]
- Shout-outs to drone operators and discussion on the impact of Starlink disruptions on Russian drone capabilities.
- Discussion on layoffs at the Washington Post, with concern for international correspondents now stranded or endangered.
- Wry commentary on media and film criticism (e.g., “Melania” film review).
Notable Quotes
- "They are dangling money ... and there is a clever strategy by Moscow, but you only have to look at Bill Browder and his comments on it ... they just lie, cheat, and steal their way through ... your money ends up in their pockets.” — David Knowles [14:54]
- “The President said the Ukrainian delegation conveyed the position that if there are any bilateral agreements between Russia and the U.S. the provisions related to Ukraine cannot contradict our constitution.” — Francis Durnley [13:48]
- “If Russia attacks a NATO country, I am pretty certain that Kaliningrad will be taken off the board immediately, in the first 24 hours.” — Ben Hodges [28:35]
- “You can kill thousands of enemy, but if it doesn’t achieve a strategic outcome, then it doesn’t matter ... We did that in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. None of those turned out well.” — Ben Hodges [46:53]
- “I think a year from now, it’s going to look like it does right now. Unless there is some significant change externally ... Putin personally has no interest in ending the war.” — Ben Hodges [51:12]
Key Timestamps
- [00:38] – Moscow assassination plot and drone warfare updates
- [04:00] – Ukraine’s defense export pivot & Franco-Ukrainian arms deal
- [12:43] – Lavrov on 'Anchorage Agreement' / US backtracking
- [13:57] – Zelensky’s warning: $12 trillion “Dmitriev package”
- [15:54] – Sanctions news, Orban’s anti-Ukrainian rhetoric
- [22:27] – NATO-Baltics war game introduction
- [23:23] – Gen. Hodges: War game analysis
- [32:17] – Military mobility challenges in Europe
- [34:09] – US, European policy towards the war
- [37:48] – Drone warfare innovations
- [42:43] – Divisions and cohesion within NATO
- [47:51] – Article 5 and threshold for NATO intervention
- [49:47] – Hodges’ recommendations for European/NATO security
- [51:12] – Predictions for the next phase of the war
- [53:00] – Final thoughts: Media layoffs and morale
Takeaways for New Listeners
This episode highlights growing complexities in both battlefield and diplomatic theaters as the war grinds on into its fourth year. Diplomatic maneuvering (and potential backroom deals) between the US and Russia present existential risks to Ukraine's sovereignty, as President Zelensky eloquently warns.
The analysis of the NATO war game exposes both strengths and dangerous vulnerabilities in the current alliance posture. Hodges' expertise clarifies that technological adaptation on the front line must be matched by political will and infrastructural reform in Europe—and that US ambiguity emboldens Russia.
Above all, the episode reinforces the continuing urgency for steadfast support of Ukraine and the need for unity within NATO and the wider Western alliance.
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