← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Russia crippled as ‘meat assaults’ fail in spring offensive & will this be the year Ukraine takes more territory than Moscow?
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The telegraph.
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David Knowles
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Dominic Nichols
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Brooke Devard
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Dominic Nichols
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Francis Dernley
I'm Francis Dernley and this is Ukraine. The latest today as the 50 nation Ukraine Defence Contact Group meets in Berlin just hours after President Zelensky signed a new defence cooperation pact with Germany. We assess the first moves of Hungary's new Prime Minister and what they could mean for European support for Ukraine. We then take a deep dive into Russian military tactics and campaign design, including how Moscow consolidates control over the occupied territories. Territories with an expert from the Institute for the Study of War.
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Dominic Nichols
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Francis Dernley
The Russia does not want fees instance.
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Dominic Nichols
If I'm President, I will have that war settled in one day. 24 hours we are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years.
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Carolina Hurd
Nobody's going to break us.
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Dominic Nichols
We are strong. We are Ukrainians.
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Francis Dernley
It's Wednesday 15 April, four years and 50 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by our Associate Editor of Defence here at the Telegraph, Dominic Nichols and a very special guest from Washington D.C. carolina Hurd from the ISW. But first, as ever, before we get to you, Carolina, let's go to Dom for the very latest on the battle battlefield situation.
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Dominic Nichols
Well, thanks, Francis. Hi Leila, lovely to meet you. So, Ukraine Defence Contact Group, as you mentioned, the Ramstein Group, so named because that's where it started. Ramstein Air Base, US Air base in Germany. Meeting now. No outcome yet, but we're not expecting anything until at least another hour and a half. I'm standing by for a missive from the mod, so we should get some readout in the next couple of hours for tomorrow, however, Rachel Reeves, Britain's Chancellor, she's currently in Washington for the IMF spring meetings. Now, ahead of her departure over the pond, she said that Britain has sent the third £752 million payment, very specific million pounds payment as part of the £2.26 billion loan for Ukraine. This money is primarily going on military equipment. It's mainly that side rather than humanitarian or just financial support. But she said the loan is backed by the profits from the frozen Russian assets held in the eu. So that's just the the interest on rather than the actual assets themselves. Today, Rachel Reeves, he's going to meet with Ukraine's Deputy PR Minister, Yulia Sverodenko, and she's going to hold talks with other G7 finance ministers as well. Also ahead of that and ahead of Ramstein, Ukraine Defence contact group. The mod announced another drone package for Ukraine. They said they're going to deliver about 120,000 drones this year which is pretty good. The package is going to include thousands of long range strike drones, ISR so intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance drones, logistics, also maritime capable which I think is pretty much the same thing, just hardened against salt water and all that kind of jazz. You can tell I'm a bit of an expert on maritime drones and we're told deliveries have already started this month. Now all that, all that is ahead of say the Defence Secretary flying out for today's meeting in Berlin. He's going to co chair the 34th meeting of the 50 Nation Group. Co chair alongside Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius. We're told Ukraine's Defence Minister Mikhail Fedorov is going to be there as well. And also NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, President Zelensky, he's on his travels as well doing a lot of defence diplomacy. He's currently in Norway. He's just signed a defence declaration in Oslo with Prime Minister Jonas Garastore there. The new agreement is going to include expanded collaboration we're told on drone technology with Ukraine going to jointly produce drones in Norway as well as other industrial cooperation. Quite interesting how this network, as we were talking yesterday, this network of knitting together the political direction, the military requirement industrial complex is expanding beyond Ukraine.
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Francis Dernley
It's also a new pact every week now, isn't there?
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Dominic Nichols
Well, yeah, hold that thought, hold that thought for a moment. Norway is one of Europe's more generous supporters. The government there has committed long term funding for Ukraine about $28 billion worth up to 2030. Importantly that's got backing from all parties in Norwegian politics in the Norway's parliament. So that's pretty secure. So he's in Norway today. Yesterday Hensky was in Berlin where he signed another defence cooperation agreement with Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This deal expands on the existing military cooperation between the two countries. Berlin pledged additional support in a number of key areas including air defence which is top of the list at the moment. Long range weapons, drones and ammunition. President Zelenskyy said today, as in yesterday, today we have a new cooperation agreement, 10 in total in key areas. Germany is a clear leader in supporting Ukraine and our efforts to protect lives. So quite a lot of I'd say knitting together this network, this matrix of defense industrial corporation across Europe. Now that timing was good him being in Germany because in an interview with German broadcaster ZDF published yesterday, President Zelenskyy Spoke about the shortage of Patriot air defense missiles, saying the situation is in such a deficit it could not be any worse. Pretty stark language, you'll remember. Yesterday we reported that Berlin is going to be supplying more PAC2 missiles. So the Patriot missiles for air defence as well as additional RST air defense systems. RST being another type of air defense system. So President Zelenskyy said we are receiving air defenses slower than is possible, but we are receiving them. So kind of glass half empty there anyway, after the Defence cooperation agreement was signed in Berlin yesterday. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has said he's in Berlin today for the Ramsay, but he tweeted after yesterday's agreement was signed, we're focused on scaling defense tech with Germany's State Secretary Jens Blotner. We're expanding joint production and using Ukraine as a hub for testing new tech in combat. He said the key focus is joint production and data sharing, turning battlefield feedback into innovations. A couple of interesting things there talk about Ukraine as a hub for testing new tech in combat. A point I somewhat glibly made, I think last week, saying I'm inundated with press releases from PR firms saying that they're amazing. New kit has been tested in Ukraine to which, you know, I've speak to a lot of the Brave One guys out there and they say, yeah, absolutely, we tested it, it was rubbish. But that doesn't stop the firm saying, you know, stamp mark tested in Ukraine. So if Ukraine is setting itself up as a hub for testing new kit in combat, that really will separate those whose kit does what it says on the box and those that doesn't. I also think it's very interesting. They're talking about Fedorov, talking about data sharing. You know, the amount of data. Who was it that said the amount of data that's been gathered by Ukraine, that has a value for. If you think about what language does for large language models and AI and ChatGPT and all this kind of stuff. Well, think about what the data that's being collected from the battlefield of Ukraine is doing right now for future defense production. So if you can harness that data, if you can gather it, if you can collate it and make sure it is readable and sensible, then that has an immense value. And I'm sure, I'm sure Ukraine's factoring that into all these defense diplomacy.
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Francis Dernley
Federal said that was a priority for them. When he became Defense Secretary, he was like, this is one of the pillars is, is AI and data.
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Dominic Nichols
Yeah, yeah. Data being the new oil and all that, yeah. Anyway, inside Ukraine, Russia launched 324 drones and three Iskander M ballistic missiles into Ukraine yesterday. The air force said Ukrainian air Defenses shot down 309 drones but all three ballistic missiles did get through. Seven people killed, over 60 injured across the country. Most of those killed were in Dnipro. As we yesterday, that strike that killed five people injured nearly 30. But also yesterday apartment buildings were hit in Cherkasy that killed an eight year old child, injured a dozen more people there. Also the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast that was hit this morning, caused a number of injuries there. No deaths I've seen reported. Thankfully it destroyed a children's sports facility that is marked as a historical landmark, damaged around another 40 other buildings. Authorities there say it was a glide bomb that hit about 5am in the morning, obviously when most people are in their beds. A couple more for me. There are reports you'll see. Doing the business, I picked it up on a couple of social media sites. It has been reported more widely but a reported Ukrainian long range strike in Zhulitamak in the Republic of bashkostan that's about 1500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The report suggests this strike on the Sintes Kalchuk plant that is a crucial part of Bakholstan's petrochemical cluster. There's a number of images, as I say on social media you can see the drone very clearly. To me it looks like a bar actor and I'm a little bit out of date but I think it's got to be the TB3 variant because the ones before that just didn't have the range to get 1500 KS. But if you know what it is then please let us know. But I think It's a Barakta TB3 but it's very clear on the social media feed that you'll be able to find and we'll include in the episode. Now the back Orchestan governor said he was speaking on telegram. He said that it hit about 11am local time this morning. So they came under attack. Drones were reportedly shot down over an industrial zone. This is Radi Kabarov. He said that our old friend drone debris fell on the grounds of an enterprise. He didn't say which one but again I think we can tell from the large mushroom cloud that's over the petrochemical plant exactly where the drone debris did land. He said all services are working at the site putting out the resultant fire. So I don't know if he means all services are working on the site and they're putting out the resultant fire or just everything's working like the fire hose and stuff and the bell.
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Francis Dernley
What was the name of the guy in the Iraq war who was the spokesman? Yeah, and that sort of. The tanks were behind him. He said, we're winning the war. You can see the Americans in the background.
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Dominic Nichols
Reports of Americans inside Baghdad are all false. This is ridiculous. As an M1 drove past behind him.
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Francis Dernley
It's like that classic scene in Naked Gun where he's like, nothing to see here and the house is burning behind.
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Dominic Nichols
Well, just finally for me, the security service of Ukraine, the SBU says it's detained an informant for Russia's FSB who whilst working as a school principal in Kramatorsk, has actually been calling in coordinates and directing shelling of the city. Now, in a statement on their website that we'll include in the episode notes, the SBU say that this woman was held in the Donetsk region, having come on their radar just after the start of the full scale invasion, having traveled to Belarus. So since then they've been watching her and now they finally, I guess they decided they've got enough evidence and went and picked her up. They say that last summer the FSB activated their asset, activated her and instructed her to monitor the locations of and report on groups of large number of defense forces in the city. She's said to have concentrated her work in the city center, recording large concentration of personnel and equipment of Ukrainian troops. She's currently being held, no chance of bail, faces life imprisonment with the confiscation of property. I say put a link in the episode notes for that. FSB also said in another statement they'd detained two other Russian agents who've been committing arson in Dnipro and Odessa. That's us up the day, Francis.
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Francis Dernley
Thanks very much, Dom. Well, before we go to Carolina, just a few small political updates. The first one is, of course, Hungary's new Prime Minister has hit the ground running. How's this for a power play? So he went to see the Hungarian president who of course formally has to appoint him. It's mainly a ceremonial role. He rocks up and, you know, shakes hand. I imagine there's some sort of, maybe not a bow, but some ritual that has to be carried out. And then he told him that as Prime Minister Peter Magell, that he expected the President to resign as soon as possible. And he actually went further. He posted an image of it, of him meeting with the President on social media. A pretty awkward image, I think it's fair to say. He said the Fides appointees unworthy of representing the unity of the Hungarian nation and unfit to serve as the guardian of legality. Nor is he fit to serve as a moral authority or a role model. Following the formation of the new government, he must leave office immediately. I couldn't remember, John, what's your army phrase? Meetings without coffee. I mean, there's that.
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Dominic Nichols
Interviews without coffee.
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Francis Dernley
Interviews without coffee. I mean, I think that's an understatement based on what's happened in this one.
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Dominic Nichols
I've seen a social media post that suggested they then walked out onto the balcony outside. Maybe somebody said, all right, lads, take it outside. But they went out on the balcony and then the President pointed out that in the building two buildings across on the balcony, there's this rather portly figure keeping an eye on what's going on. It was Viktor Orban who was spotted.
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Francis Dernley
Was he shredding documents rapidly and he wasn't looking that. Throwing them off. Throwing off the. Off the edge. Well, a fascinating story. Obviously, the other element of this is the EU has started to make some noises about hoping that this will be the moment the 90 billion is unlocked. The bloc's expansion chief Marta Kos, who we've spoken about before because of Ukraine's hope to become a EU member, was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and the World bank spring meetings. She described the Hungarian election on Sunday as a big win for Europe. Of course, there are many other European leaders who echoed those sentiments, saying she thought it would help the budget passing and have a positive effect on the Ukrainian accession process, too. But I think it's important to emphasize, as we have the last few days, extreme caution here. Even if, as Magyar has signalled, the blocking of the 90 billion is no longer in place by Budapest, it is entirely possible there are other countries like Slovakia, possibly, it's been speculated, Belgium, who will block it instead, that they have their own reservations that have been hiding behind Hungary, knowing that they're going to block it so they can make warm noises, but actually not really vote for it when push comes to shove. So we will see. But nonetheless, it is changing the tone of the conversation and putting more pressure on other capitals. And that I'm sure Kyiv will see as a good thing now staying with Europe. We gave an update a couple of weeks ago on the development of the special tribunal to prosecute the crime of aggression against Ukraine. I'm sure this is something that you've been following very closely at the isw. Just another very quick update on this. Iceland and Poland have now signed up to the idea of backing this as being actually literally a separate building as well that exists to give a permanency to the investigations. That now means there's 17 countries that have signed up to this, which means they've passed the minimal threshold required for it to advance at the upcoming Council of Europe meeting in May. So it looks likely that this is actually going to be agreed. And if so, this is believed to be a significant step, a major thorn in the side of the Russian, because they will hope that when this war ends that it will perhaps go away to a certain degree if there is a permanent building in the Hague, publishing reports saying people that should be being arrested internationally, blocking people being able to travel or recommending countries stall the progress of individuals. That is going to be something that will never go away. And so there's been a lot of work to try and make sure that that is the case. So an interesting development there. And just one last story we've been covering the last, well, really three years, I would say, the involvement of Ukraine increasing in Africa. And an interesting development, the Kyiv Independent report that Ukraine has just opened its first food processing and distribution center in Ghana as Kyiv seeks to expand its agricultural exports and address the region's food crisis. Ghana is totally reliant on wheat imports. And Ukraine, of course, being the world's fifth largest wheat exporter, has a key role to play in the country. And evidently they are trying to become increasingly involved in having political alliances with those countries that have been dependent on them, at least as a trading partner. We saw back in Odessa last year the grain shipments that were going in and out of the port of Odessa escorted by the Ukrainian navy. And that was one of the key issues in the. What about two years into the war, would you say something like that was
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Dominic Nichols
when it was the so called blockade,
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Francis Dernley
the blockade and the grain exports, and you remember the UN and Turkey were very much involved in the conversation about unlocking that. And that is still very much the case. But of course it gives opportunities for Ukraine to extend its hand to many Africans, African nations. That being relevant, of course, because of Russia and Wagner's involvement in Africa, too, and the leverage that they've been utilizing to gain political capital there. So that's us in terms of the military and political updates. But delighted now to bring in Carolina, somebody who will be familiar to many of you either for your appearances on the podcast over previous years, but also if not for your work on the assessments of the isw, including the daily assessments, which I know you're not as heavily involved in anymore, but are still involved in. I'm keen to ask you some questions about that. But much of your work today as a National Security Fellow at the ISW is focused on the occupied territory. So we're going to talk a little bit about that as well as reflections of like us reporting on the war over the whole course of this period and the lessons you take from that. So welcome. It's great to have you here with us in London. First of all, perhaps just for those who are newer to the war, what is the ISW and how do you operate?
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Carolina Hurd
Yeah. So thank you so much for having me. It's amazing to be in person. So for listeners who are not necessarily familiar with isw, that's the Institute for the Study of War. It is a think tank based in Washington D.C. it's actually been around for a very long time. It was established in 2007 in response to the war in Iraq. But we have expanded our focus significantly since then, since covering the Middle east and Syria and all of that. We're now covering as well the war in Ukraine. I started at ISW in January of 2022 and then the full scale invasion happened just a month after I started. And since then ISW has been putting out a daily assessment of what's happening on the battlefield in Ukraine every single day since actually February 19, 2022, with the exception of Christmas Day and Thanksgiving Day. So we've been very busy for the last four years. But again, for those not familiar with isw, we are an entirely open source intelligence based think tank, which means that all of the information we get is from open sources. We receive no classified information from our government, any other government or any classified sources. Which means that if you really think about it, any one of us could really pull the information that we're pulling. It's a lot of telegram, Twitter, Facebook, government readouts, that sort of thing. And we pull all of that together into a daily report looking at what's happening on the very tactical, even sub tactical level on the battlefield in Ukraine, but then also using that to look at the political situation in Russia, developments in Russian force generation, insider information, what's happening in the Kremlin. And because we've been following these sources and these assessments for such a long time, we have very robust data infrastructure basically that helps us make these sort of intelligence community standard assessments about everything from the military situation to the political and the economic situation.
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Francis Dernley
Well, it's absolutely invaluable. We've been relying on your work now for the Last four years. And it was a real treat to go and visit your offices back in September 2023. I think it almost feels like a lifet. And I remember when we had that meeting and David and Giles were with me at that time. I think you were at the White House, Dom, which you know you'd be forgiven. It was really striking how small your team was and obviously our team is very small too. How big is the team now working on Russia and Ukraine specifically?
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Carolina Hurd
Yeah. So the Russia team is around 10 people right now. I think everyone still very small. Everyone is just shocked at how small we are because we've been producing five to 10,000 word reports every single day for over four years. So people think it's a huge team. When I started it was four people. I was one of four people doing this work. And now it's 10 or around 10, give or take. And that feels really huge and really massive compared to where we started. But I remember so clearly in September, sitting down with you three and it was, I think five of us around then. It's like less than 10 people between our two teams doing this daily work, which was crazy. And I'm very thankful that there's been so much interest and passion for the war in Ukraine or for the coverage and this sort of daily cadence that we're able to do. So we've been able to grow our team quite a lot, which has been very important for a lot of reasons.
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Francis Dernley
I'm really keen to hear more about the big takeaways for you on the strategic side and obviously what comes the occupied territories in a moment. But just give us a sense of what does your day look like in terms of putting together those really detailed assessments or does it begin the previous day?
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Carolina Hurd
Yeah. So we actually collect on basically a 24 hour cycle, which means that when our staff logs on in the morning, normally between 8 to 9 in the morning, we start our data collection, which is basically a very. What can be sometimes a very grinding, arduous process of going through by hand all of the sources that we've built sourceless kind of over the years.
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Francis Dernley
Soldiers on the ground.
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Carolina Hurd
Exactly. So it's kind of a mix of telegram channels that are associated with Russian units or Ukrainian units, units, telegram channels that are posting combat footage, that sort of thing. And then Twitter we use for a lot of geolocated content. We also have an in house geospatial intelligence team which is actually the team that makes the maps that I think people are very familiar with when it comes to isw, but they're doing a lot of the sort of geospatial intelligence gathering to supplement the more textual sources that we're collecting on. But basically it's just this process of collector analysts collecting information from Russian, Ukrainian, Western sources. And then we all get together around midday and talk through developments, updates, assessments. And then we get to writing and we sit and we write the update, which is broken down between the tactical what's happening in different geographic parts of the frontline, and then wider scale assessments. There's normally a team of between four to six people writing that every single day. And finish writing that, move to edits, which is much more what I'm focused on these days. And then the day is done when the update is out for the day and back in the morning, rinse and repeat. We've been doing it for over four years now, so a little bit of a science at this point.
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Francis Dernley
Yeah, it's a similar experience for us, I think it's fair to say. We've got our routines and at some point I really feel that we should do a sort of behind the scenes of Ukraine the latest, to see what our process is. But I'm not sure that necessarily people would want to see all of the details of that. But when I know Dom's got some questions, but one last one for me to get us going in this sphere. Russia's art of war operational tactics, how it approaches this. What have you seen change the most over the last four years? You're one of those people doing it as granularly as we have, that you see that progress and you see those changes.
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Carolina Hurd
It's been so interesting watching the Russian military both reckon with modern war and in some aspects be quite successful in adapting tactics and operations. But in other areas like really, really struggling. And I think the struggles come in a lot of ways from Ukraine's commensurate successes. But we first basically saw, you know, early 2022, these mechanized assaults with tanks and all of that. And it's not as much of a thing anymore. It's not to say that these traditional battlefield systems are obsolete. They are absolutely not. But the way that they're being used has changed. And the way that the Russian military as an institution has reckoned with these changes has been really interesting to observe. And we are still seeing four years in a row now, this constant use of these meat assaults. Right. Just a few guys going and trying to take a position and suffering really high attrition rates, especially in the face of Ukrainian drone capabilities. So in that aspect, it's very Much hitting their heads on the same brick wall over and over again. The big change in sort of tactics that we've seen has been this infiltration, right? We have a special layer on the ISW maps that. That denotes infiltration, which is a kind of specific tactic where a few guys, so it's fire team or less, like one to three people, will basically try to permeate through Ukrainian positions. And that's very much a effect of the fact that the battlefield is very porous right now. It's been described as a pointless battlefield, like a piece of impressionist art, right, where there's. All of these positions are intermixed and intermingled, which is really difficult to. Difficult to map and kind of to understand control of terrain. Because that's very much change, right? The kind of concept of a set frontline, it's very, as I said, porous. But the Russians have adapted to this with this idea of infiltration groups that go and try to take a position weaving in between Ukrainian positions, but they're still struggling with motorized or mechanized assaults. You get reports every single day from a Ukrainian battalion or brigade or whatever talking about how they eliminated however many motorcycles or ATVs that were in a Russian mechanized assault. So it's been, I think, if I could summarize it, it's very much this constant sort of back and forth between offense and defense and adapting to the other side's offensive and defensive capabilities. And that has manifested in the infiltration tactics we're seeing and then also the drone war and the specifics and tactics of how drones are used at an operational level. I'm sure we'll talk about that in a bit. But yeah, if I had to summarize everything we've seen over the past few years, it's this sort of tug of in what side can adapt to the other side's capabilities quickest and then go right back to the other side, adapting and in response.
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Dominic Nichols
Hi, Lina, thanks so much for all the work you do and for coming in. Dom here. Question first about methodology, if I may. Now, you say your team has more than doubled. Huge, 150%, but still only 10 of you. But there's been an explosion in open source intelligence, open source information, ozint, however you want to. To phrase it. How do you go about over the last few years, has your methodology changed about how you try and make sense of that all? Do you use AI at all to drag stuff in and try and try and make sense of all the information feeds out there? Because it's a great resource, but you can just so easily. It's like putting a cup under Niagara Falls, you know, so, so easy. Just be lost in it and not be able to produce anything. So any big changes over the last four years?
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Carolina Hurd
Less than you'd expect. We do not use AI for collection or anything like that right now because we've really found that the sort of personal day to day interaction with data is irreplaceable when you're collecting on a 24 hour cycle. Because it's really important to have an analyst who can say this is how it was yesterday and this is how it is today, and this is the inflection and the change in what we're seeing. And we haven't really found a way to recreate that, right? Neither have we, exactly, I'm sure. You know, I think people who are doing this sort of daily, very rigorous, granular data collection, you need the humans behind that. And I think one of the cool things that we've done over the past few years is we have a huge data archive, right? Every single telegram post that the Russian MOD has ever put out, we've collected on that. So we have both the physical data archive and then in the brains of the analysts, this really long archive of how things used to be in February 2022 compared to how they are today. And this sort of personal expertise, I think is really important. And a thing that makes our team very strong is it is experts who are in this data every single single day collecting it. I think if anything, the thing that's changed is we have more sources. But when I say sources, it's the fact that we've gotten very familiar with the ecosystem, right? The different telegram channels that we know to be trustworthy. Even if it's a Russian mail blogger, they'll make a claim and then two days later we see geolocated footage that backs up their claims, so we see that they're a valid source. So sort of our, our ecosystem has expanded a lot. But that's another reason that, that the people behind the work is really important is because our analysts understand the ecosystem that they're working in. And that's not something that you can really replace with AI.
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Francis Dernley
Sorry to interrupt, just one question on this before going back to dom. When you say an analyst is assessing that source, let's say that mill blogger, if they're proven to be right, are they recategorized into being more reliable or does it only exist in the head of the analyst, as it were?
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Carolina Hurd
I think we have source categorizations Right, So it's like we know which of our MIL bloggers, for example, have been co opted by the Kremlin and then which ones are much more critical and walking the line where one day their account might be shut down because they're saying things that are a little bit fringe. So one validation wouldn't change a source characterization. But in my case especially, I've been following some of these mill bloggers for four years. So I kind of know the behavior or the way that they talk and they make assessments. So I'm able to make, make assessments on their validity or sort of their involvement based off of just having observed them for so long.
- [31:35]
Dominic Nichols
No, it's fascinating stuff. We follow a similar process I, I guess here that you build up over time about have they been proven accurate before? Is it likely to be true what they're claiming? Because of course sometimes it might be, might be extremely unlikely and then it happens, you know, so you are, you describe very accurately that you are, I mean we call you a think tank, but you're not the somewhat staid. And this is not to denigrate the academic world at all because I can feel your eyes burning into the side of my head, Francis. But you know, it's not a small number of researchers producing a brilliant document in six months time. You're doing this every day. You're more of a kind of J2 and intelligence clearing shop or halfway or somewhere between the two. So that is fascinating. But as a body of analysts and researchers and people interested in this, it does keep you every day you're rooted into the. You've got to get the news out, you've got to get the updates out. So do you have time to develop areas of your own particular interest in this war? Are you able to, do you have the mental space to be able to carve out that time for yourself? And do you have the resources to then be able to go and look at a specific issue, deep dive on a subject?
- [32:44]
Carolina Hurd
Yeah, absolutely. That's been a really interesting facet of the last four years is watching different analysts on the team spin out and really become both generalists in the sense that they can easily cover what's happening on the battlefield in Ukraine, but then also develop very deep expertise in other areas. So for example, there's our new team lead, Katerina Stepinenko. She has become a drone expert. So she's the expert on drone technology and also Russian force generation. So she's really been able to find through her daily data collection and work on the daily update, really Find things that she was interested in and passionate about and then make that her deep expertise. And it does involve a lot of long hours. Right, because if you're doing a daily product that sometimes will go until 10pm that means being okay with doing your own analysis or your own research on the side, maybe in the wee hours of the morning or that sort of thing. But I've had that journey as well where I started this job from a military analysis perspective and then found quite quickly I was very interested in more of the human rights and humanitarian angle. And I've been very lucky that ISW has very much empowered me to pursue my own research interests. So I've been able to do longer form research and reporting on a lot of the issues of, for example, Russian occupation or deportation of children and that sort of thing. So I think it's also really important because. Because it is important to have this sort of generalist product, but it is also, I guess that's the one aspect of ISW that's maybe more of a traditional think tank, is that we do have people who are deep experts in a niche topic where they will spend six months a year researching one single question on top of doing the daily updates.
- [34:30]
Francis Dernley
Well, tell us about the occupied territories then. I mean, this is a subject of course, that we explore with Dr. Jay McClint, who I know you also know every fortnight we do a section dedicated to the resistance in the occupied territories, although we've now expanded it to include other analysis. When you look at again, how things have changed in that respect and the way that they approach this Moscow, what jumps out at you?
- [34:50]
Carolina Hurd
Yeah, so I actually have stood up my own product at isw. It's a once weekly update on basically everything that's happening in occupied Ukraine. It's called the Russian Occupation Update, very creatively titled. But I basically divided the themes of the occupation into, for example, economic, financial, social, cultural, militarization, administrative, and then infrastructure and then a few other categories. But I've been for over a year now producing this weekly product mainly by myself. So that's actually been quite an adjustment in terms of that workflow. But basically looking at very in depth what is happening along these sort of lines of inquiry. And the thing that's really struck me as someone who's been observing occupation since 2022, is how much money Russia is spending on it. The Russians are spending billions of rubles on trying to make occupied Ukraine remake these areas in Russia's own image. But I've been really thinking about how at what point Is it just too much money for them to spend? Right. And why are they spending so much money on hospitals, buildings, sports complexes and that sort of thing?
- [36:00]
Francis Dernley
They rebuilt a theater in Mariupol.
- [36:02]
Carolina Hurd
That's a really good example, actually, of this sort of very cynical rebuilding of these areas that are destroyed because of Russia's military actions, rebuilding them in Russia's own image. And it's very clear to me at this point that it's a tool of integration. Right. They're investing all of this money because that's what they need to really forcibly integrate these territories into the Russian sphere of influence, but also to actually be able to reap a profit off of the occupation. It's an investment that's going to pay off the longer that Russia can occupy these areas. For example, a huge thing that's going on right now is like the property nationalization. Right, Right. They are basically stealing apartments from Ukrainians and then redistributing them to Russians or those loyal to the occupation regime. And that has a profit incentive. Right. For landlords or property owners. That sort of thing also encourages people to move to occupied Ukraine, get jobs in occupied Ukraine, build out the economy there. So it's very much that they're using these areas as this economic and financial boon, hopefully to remedy a lot of the economic problems that Russia's facing at home. Home as a result of the war in Ukraine. So it's very kind of circular, cynical logic that seems to be underpinning a lot of the developments we're seeing in occupied areas right now.
- [37:18]
Francis Dernley
When you look at the situation relating to children as well, I imagine that that's something that is a core focus for you. What, again, we've looked at figures like 19,000, 35,000. Sometimes it's hundreds of thousands. I mean, the figures are all over the street Shop. Where do you place the severity of the situation at the moment?
- [37:36]
Carolina Hurd
Yeah, I actually think it's really useful to break down the figures because they're all useful in their own context. So the Ukrainian government has most recently, they actually just upped their number. It used to be a little over 19,000, and now it's over 20,000. But these are verified children who have been deported. And these are only the children that the Ukrainian government can verify the identities of. That's over 20,000, and that is the smallest number you will see thrown around. And that number's important because it's a verified number by the Ukrainian government and because it has identities attached to it. The 35,000 is the number that the Yale Humanitarian Research lab has said that they're tracking, actively tracking 35,000 children who have been deported and are being juggled around the adoption infrastructure within Russia. Yale is top of the line methodology for tracking this sort of thing. They are the world authority on this issue. So I very much tend to lean towards that 35,000 number. Although, as with all this, the actual number is likely to be much higher because Russia's gone to obviously really great lengths to hide what they're doing. Change names, change identities. Especially since I think the ICC arrest warrants were issued in 2023. That's probably changed some of the information access a bit. So I'd say that it's bigger than 35,000. The other number that gets cited a lot is 700,000. That comes from a report by the Kremlin appointed commissioner on children's rights, Maria Vobolova, who's also been sanctioned by the ICC. She wrote in a report in 2023 that 700,000 Ukrainian children had been accepted into the Russian Federation. That number's a bit confusing because that does involve children who came with their parents and people who are voluntary refugees. So they don't necessarily meet the legal definition of deportation. So I think obviously it's a huge range, but between that 35,000 and the 700,000 is likely where that number's going to be. Also with that in mind, I think it is really important to note that the statistics on deportation don't even really tell the full story because there are children who are being shuffled back and forth to summer camps every single year. Tens of Thousands, up to 100,000 children
- [39:57]
Francis Dernley
between Ukraine and Russia. Yeah.
- [39:58]
Carolina Hurd
And that seems harmless. If you're just reading the newspaper, you see, oh, they're taking children to summer camps. And most of them, not all of them, but most of them end up back in occupied Ukraine. However, these summer camps are very much used to indoctrinate and militarize these children and then also force them to form lifelong attachments with Russia. So it's, again, this, like, tool of integration that it's not as easy to understand, not as black and white as, oh, the forced deportation is bad. I would really argue that the summer camp or exchange program is also part of the occupation design and something that isn't talked about or understood properly. And that is a huge number of children every year that go from occupied Ukraine to summer camp camps all throughout Russia, maybe two, two weeks to a month. And most of them come back, some of them don't, but most of them come back and they have These lifelong attachments to Russia, they've been exposed to really anti Ukrainian and pro Russian sentiments. It's very much intended to co opt an entire generation.
- [40:57]
Dominic Nichols
That figure is 700,000. That is as you say, that was, that's a Russian figure. But that must be somewhat easily challenged by Kyiv, isn't it? But because they would if they can document, if Yale is saying 35,000 and it's that kind of ballpark figure. I mean Ukraine would know if they've, if over 600,000 other children were not there anymore. I don't understand how Russia, why it's not more easily disputed. I don't know why Russia have come out with that figure because that's extreme. But surely it's somewhat more straightforward to say that's rubbish.
- [41:31]
Carolina Hurd
That's an interesting question. I think, I think part of the challenge is that number came from 2022. So it was when there was a lot of people leaving the country along various borders. Right. Not just into Russia. So that number does to some extent account for forced deportations, but it also does account for people who voluntarily decided to go to Russia because they had families in Russia or whatever or it was closer and then some of them may have ended, ended up back in either occupied Ukraine or in Europe or in non occupied Ukraine. So I think it's actually really difficult to disprove because of how chaotic and complex the situation was in 2022. And then the other issue that makes it really difficult to actually properly track this is statistics. And access to occupied territories is obviously very difficult. It is a very repressive controlled society there now. So it's very difficult to verify because there's not necessarily reliable census records of how many children were in schools before the invasion compared to what the Russians are saying now. And then there's obviously the constant issue that I'm sure we're all very familiar with. The Russians really do exaggerate these numbers or they exaggerate all numbers. But I think that a lot of the, especially before the ICC arrest warrant, they were flying very fast and loose with the numbers that they were using with Ukrainian children. I think because they were very much convinced that they were engaged in this very good hearted humanitarian project which of course we all know they weren't. But I think that that colored the numbers at that time.
- [43:03]
Dominic Nichols
Last one for me. So with the body of knowledge that you've built up over the years and the analytical tools and the skills of the individuals you have, have you been able to predict stuff? Are you able to see or suggest what might happen? Because you, you said there's that a lot of the metrics at the moment are if it's a kind of slack water, if not turning in Ukraine's favor in some areas. So impossible question, but we have to ask analysts, what's your prediction then for the rest of 2026?
- [43:31]
Carolina Hurd
Yeah, that's great question. We at ISW like to use forecast instead of predict. It's a little more like methodologically aligned with our tradecraft. But we do make forecasts. It's actually a really big part, especially on the military side of what we do, right. Forecasting where the next offensive is going to be, the prospects of that offensive, etc. So that is absolutely something we're engaged in. We forecast that the Russians would start their summer offensive around now. We have assessed that the summer offensive has started. It's going the way we thought it would. It's in the area of the front we thought it would, the fortress belt area. So we do make forecasts very frequently. That's a huge part of the sort of value that ISW has, especially with the Russian military and its capabilities. I think in terms of forecasts for 2026, you mentioned a really important point that I think needs to be talked about more. The tide is really starting to turn, I think in Ukraine's favor. They of course conducted all of these counterattacks, which you've brilliantly covered on this podcast, in the southern part of the front, and they retook a lot of territory. We've seen more Ukrainian territorial advances this year than we have since the massive counter offensives in 2022. So there's that turn of the tide on the frontline, this sort of slow chipping away of the Russian positions on the front line. But I also think that the stuff that's happening beyond the front line in terms of Ukraine's mid range strikes, so they're conducting almost nightly mid range strikes on Crimea, hitting air defense radars and that sort of stuff. And then within Russia, you talked about this just today with the strike on Bashkortostan, these longer range strikes targeting Russia's defense industrial base, its petrochemical industry, air defense, military sites, that sort of thing. And in isolation, right, these one strike isn't going to change the story in one day. But over time, Russia's air defense is getting degraded by these Ukrainian strikes. Its petrochemical industry is getting degraded, its export abilities have been impacted for sure. And then of course, strikes on ammunition depots and that sort of thing. They all start to have an effect over time. So you take all of these small pieces of the puzzle together, right? The advances on the battlefield, the mid and long range strikes, and then Ukraine's just institutionalization of its innovation, the work of the unmanned systems forces and their ability to really create these very clever use cases for frontline drones. That's all. I think on balance, as Russia is starting to struggle economically and with recruitment and all of that, starting to tip the scales and I think we'll continue to see this tipping of the scales throughout 2026. Russia's engaged in an offensive right now. It's very underwhelming. They're not really making any gains in part because they have to reckon with defending against ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks. So I'm sure we'll see more of that throughout the year. Year we're not going to see the collapse of the fortress belt this year and in fact I think we'll see that offensive culminate in the next few months as Russia just doesn't have the personnel to pursue it. And I think hopefully we'll be able to see more of these sort of Ukrainian counterattacks that we've been seeing in the Julia Polya and Alexandrivka directions. That's not to say that the war is going to be over this year, that Ukraine's going to win this year necessarily. But the important point is that Ukraine has leverage and it has levels of leverage, leverage, tactical, operational, even strategic leverage that I don't think we've seen since 2022.
- [47:00]
Francis Dernley
Fascinating. Well, thank you Carolina very much for your time today. Fascinating insights as ever. It'll be great to have you back on, maybe dialing in from Washington in a few weeks time.
- [47:23]
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- [48:58]
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- [49:41]
Francis Dernley
Let's go to our final thoughts next. Don, where would you like to listen today?
- [49:44]
Dominic Nichols
Well, just on that last point, if I may, strategic leverage. We've been talking about how President Zelensky was in Berlin yesterday, Norway today with all these defence cooperation agreements he's been signing. Wouldn't it be a very smart move if on his way back from Norway he stopped off in, in Hungary? I wonder if that's going to be the first. I wondered this meeting with Mr. Magyar and what would that say? And I just, I'm keeping an eye out for that. Yeah, if I was a betting man, in fact he lend me a fiver.
- [50:14]
Francis Dernley
Well, I know who can lend you some money. Dom. This is 17 year old Lithuanian who won the Norwegian Mathematical Olympiad. Schomantas Obanas. I probably butchered the pronunciation of that. But he won €1300 in this Mathematics Olympiad and I'm sure he could lend you a fiver, but he's given the rest of the cash, all of it really, to the Ukrainians. So a bit of lighter news. So he said, I've always heard that evil can only win when good people do nothing. Therefore I felt that this achievement would have more meaning if I could contribute to Ukraine's victory. 17 years old and the Ukrainian ambassador to Norway met the student and he said, this is a powerful example of how individual actions can truly make a difference. True strength lies in refusing to be indifferent to the suffering of your neighbour. We're not talking about politics, we're talking about a conscious choice that belongs to each of you. So good on you, Scamantas, if I haven't butchered the pronunciation of your name, but where would you like to leave listeners?
- [51:14]
Carolina Hurd
Carolina, today I've been thinking quite a bit, I think, as most of us who are following the war have, about the issue of drones, right, and the sort of proliferation of these technologies that we're seeing on the battlefield. And the one thing that I've really been observing at least watching the Russians and we touched on this, but in terms of the tactics that they've taken on in the past few years and how that's adapted, I've been really concerned at a trend I've seen of the Russians very much using civilian harm that they basically purposely pursue, using specifically first person view FPV drones for military purposes, and the sort of really dangerous blurring of the lines between the military sphere and the civilian sphere causing civilian harm in order to accomplish military effects. And I think as we talk about drones and the proliferation of these systems beyond the war in Ukraine, really understanding the potential for civilian harm that these systems can have in the hands of malign actors, that will be a really important conversation in context of Africa, in the context of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, for example. So the point I've always made when I'm on this podcast is always remember the human angle of everything, of the military side, of the political side, all of that. And I think that the drone example is a really good way to understand the human impacts of this war.
- [52:34]
Francis Dernley
Well, thank you so much, Carolina. Always, as I say, a pleasure to talk to you. Thanks, Dom. As ever, thank you all very much for listening and watching around the world. We're back, same time, same place to watch tomorrow. Goodbye for now. Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest there's a link in the Description Description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk UkraineTest Ukraine the latest was Today Produced produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [54:08]
David Knowles
My name is David Knowles.
- [54:10]
Dominic Nichols
Thank you all for listening. Goodbye.
- [54:20]
David Knowles
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Dominic Nichols
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