← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Russia loses 7000 troops in 5 days & Putin tells Trump: I’ll stop giving Iran intel if you cut off Ukraine
00:48:22
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- [00:00]
Hayden
Foreign. Howdy, howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan Fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
- [00:17]
Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Daddy.
- [00:21]
Hayden
And we are currently deep diving Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
- [00:30]
Stephen
That's right.
- [00:30]
Dom Nicholls
Hei, hei.
- [00:31]
Stephen
So each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single chapter.
- [00:35]
Hayden
And along the way, we'll do character deep dives, magic explainers, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
- [00:42]
Stephen
News flash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday and you can find Fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:49]
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- [01:21]
Dom Nicholls
I'll come back up for you.
- [01:22]
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- [01:36]
Francis Durnley
Really?
- [01:37]
Michael Bohnert
I'm gonna have another one.
- [01:40]
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Amica empathy is our best policy. Visit ameca.com and get a quote today.
- [01:54]
Dom Nicholls
I'm Dom Nicholls and this is Ukraine. The latest today after another weekend of so called peace talks, we look for some any signs of a breakthrough. Although plot spoiler we didn't find any. We report on another weekend of long range strikes deep inside Russia that at one point saw 15 Russian airports cancel all flight operations. And we look at the so called game changer plot. An idea to stage a fake assassination of Viktor Orban in order to help him win next month's election. And later we we have our semi regular catch up with Rand where we ask whether Ukraine's flamingo cruise missiles and interceptor drones are currently setting the pace for military development in the sky. Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Francis Durnley
The Russia does not want peace.
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Dom Nicholls
If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day. 24 hours. We are with you, not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years. Nobody's going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians. It's Monday the 23rd of March, 4 years and 27 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by the Telegraph's executive editor for audio, Francis Dernley and RAND analyst Michael Bohnert. I started with the updates. So US and Ukrainian officials met in Miami for two days of peace talks over the weekend. It was pretty standard bland readout on Saturday. Nothing heard so far from Sunday, but not thought to have been any major developments. President Zelenskyy said there are signals that a continuation of prisoner exchanges is possible and this would be really very good news and confirmation that that diplomacy is working. We hope that this will happen soon. Now that is good, but doesn't exactly scream breakthrough to me. More on that from Francis shortly. Now in the military realm, Ukraine's long range strikes deep inside Russia have continued over the weekend. Russia says that 283 Ukrainian drones were shot down over Russia throughout Friday and into Saturday. The Ufa airport was closed. That's about 2,000 kilometers northeast of Ukraine. Kiev high rise residential buildings were also hit in that city. They were thought to be almost certainly on the flight path towards oil facilities in the city. Now that airport was one of 15 including Domodidovo in Moscow that was forced to temporarily cease operations due to the drone threats. Also, a chemical plant in Toliati that's a mere 1200 kilometers northeast of Kyiv was hit on Friday night as well, along with the oil plant in nearby Saratov. Ukraine's unmanned systems forces said they hit the Saratov oil refinery on Friday night in coordination with other components of Ukraine's defense forces. This is so our Saratov is about 700Ks northeast of Kharkiv. To give you the idea, the Unmanned systems forces said in a statement, each such facility is a resource base for waging war. The unmanned systems forces systematically targets these assets, limiting the enemy's ability to sustain the combat operations against Ukraine. Now to give you an idea of quite how widespread these attacks across Russia were and how brilliantly Putin's three week lightning offensive is going, Russia says that those 283 drones were shot down over the following Russian regions, Bryansk, Smolensk, Kaluga, Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov, Volgograd. Be right with you. Tula, Ryazan, Kursk, Saratov, Samara and Moscow oblasts as well as the Republic of Tatastan and Russian occupied Crimea. And then last night, Sunday night, Ukrainian long range kamikaze drones struck the Russian port of Primorsk in the Leningrad region. That's about 1,000 K's north of Ukraine. Primorsk is Russia's largest oil exporting facility on the Baltic Sea. Reportedly exports about one and a half million barrels a day through the Baltic Sea. Lots of images on social media, numerous explosions, fires, thick black smoke billowing over the site. And that's the end point for Russia's Baltic pipeline system, making it a key hub for Russian energy exports. You may remember warnings given to Ukraine by Trump and to be fair, the Biden administration before him warning Ukraine not to hit oil infrastructure because it might lead to a rise in oil prices. As I said, it's the satirists I feel sorry for. Now these are all part of a large scale drone attack that saw several regions across Russia hit. As I've said. Nearby St. Petersburg airport was closed for 15 hours. Leningrad Regional Governor Alexander Duschenko said Russian air defense and electronic warfare systems had intercepted dozens of drones over the region, including more than 50 that have been brought down just over Leningrad. Now the Russian Ministry of Defence said this morning, Monday morning, that a total of 249 Ukrainian drones were shot down across the country just last night. That gives an idea, like I say, of how sustained these attacks are. Question, maybe for our guest a bit later on. Does that mean that Flamingo has come online? Does it mean that Ukraine has taken the gloves off as US Interest has been diverted or perhaps deemed no longer relevant by Kyiv? And if both of those things are correct, how long until Moscow is targeted, I wonder? Now then, as well as these long range attacks, Ukraine's strikes. So the campaign on the near rear has continued over the weekend. Remember the near rear, this is term that's being used indicating that area not immediately in the contact battle and sort of back to a depth of about 250km behind the front lines, the area that shapes the contact battle. The Ukrainian military said they'd hit a Russian command and observation post near Smorodino in Belgorod oblast. That's about 5k's over the international border, just as their drones were hitting two Buk air defense systems about 30 kilometers further into Russia's Bryansk Oblast on Sunday. Now this was amid a wider range of attacks I've just described hitting air defence and other military targets, including an S400 Triumph air defence system in occupied Donetsk. On the ground, not a lot of movement, some movement, not a lot of movement. We wonder if the spring offensive has started. We Think it probably has, has it continued. Friday saw 1,240 Russian casualties, slightly higher on recent averages. But on Saturday 940 and Sunday 970, which is about in line with what we've been seeing for the last few weeks. Still crazy numbers, but sort of in line with what we've been seeing means that in just the last five days alone, Russia's had about 7,000 soldiers made casualties. Now up in the northeast, Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps said over the weekend that it has stopped Russia's biggest mechanized push on the Lyman Barova axis. They said this happened last Thursday where Russia pushed in seven different directions with over 500 troops, 28 armored vehicles and 100 plus bikes and buggies. The Corps said that 405 Russian casualties were forced there still in the 3rd Army Corps area. And Russian forces are said to be intensifying assault operations towards Kupiansk, right up in the northeast. A spokesman spokesperson for the Ukrainian brigade operating in that area said Russia is now using barrier troops to force Russian infantry to advance. Barrier troops, you'll remember, is a somewhat erroneously named force that is one bound behind the assaulting troops, encouraging them not to turn around or surrender, often encouraging them by fire. Now, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian brigade there said that Russian troops are suffering insufficient food and ammunition supplies leading to their high casualty rate there. Further south in the Donbass, there have been more reports of Russian mechanized assaults in the vicinity of Lyman and Sloviansk. No breakthrough there, but a lot of activity, possibly minor gains in the vicinity of Kramatorsk by Russia. And then right down at the bottom of the fortress belt in Konstantinivka, Ukraine regained a small amount of land there, not much at all, but small. So we mention it just for accuracy. Now then, Russian attacks on infrastructure across the country also continued over the weekend. One million people were left without power on Saturday morning in Chernihiv region after overnight attacks on energy infrastructure there. 148 of 154 Russian drones were downed Friday to Saturday, but they still still led to some deaths and injuries across the country. Similar story for Sunday. Most of the 139 drones were shot down, but still six people killed, 30 injured. It's not just drones, of course, as a point we make quite regularly. Zaporizhzhia Governor Ivan Fedorov said that Russian forces had carried out 700 strikes on 39 settlements across Zaporizhzhia Oblast Saturday to Sunday alone. And then of the 127 drones brought down through the day, it's thought a large proportion were Gerbera. Interestingly because they are primarily used as decoy drones, which suggests maybe the Shahed or the Russian equivalent, the Garan explosive drones might be either being hoarded for some future event or supporting Iran. Unlikely. Or perhaps there's some issue with supply chain. We will see now. Ukraine's state emergency services said first responders were targeted in a Russian double tap attack in Sumy. A fire engine was damaged. There were no casualties among the firefighters there. And then on Sunday, parts of eastern Kyiv and the wider oblast were hit with power cuts after the failure of a power facility that had been hit some time ago. So it wasn't struck over the weekend but suffered a failure. Hence cut out power to a large part of east of the city and the wider oblast. Detec, that's Ukraine's largest private energy company, said parts of the Brovary district in Kyiv oblast are also affected, so they are trying to get power back on as soon as possible. On Sunday, 234 of 251 drones were brought down, seven people killed, mostly in Zaporizhzhia oblast. And then into Sunday night, a Russian drone attack on the port of Chonomorsk that's down near Odessa, just south down the coast from Odessa was reported. Air raid alarms are activated just after 9pm local time there with explosions reported about half an hour later. Hombre Intelligence, the global maritime risk management firm, said they'd seen video footage showing large explosions at the port with columns of fire and clouds of smoke rising from the area of impact. They said at the time there were no merchant vessels detected in Chonomorsk. However, they do note that most vessels withhold their AIs signals, the location signal basically when conducting Black Sea port calls, making it very difficult to know what is where at any particular time. Now also just something to bring you go back to Friday but need to bring to your attention. There's an arson attack on a drone manufacturing plant in in Czechia. Now it's about 120 kilometers east of Prague. An unknown group called the Earthquake Faction claimed responsibility for the attack, linking it to Israel's actions in the Middle East. But suspicion quickly shifted to Russia as drones that were made at the factory go to Ukraine have nothing to do with Israel or the defense company Elbit Systems as initially claimed. Now the plant is said to belong to lpp, which produces drones and has publicly highlighted delivery of AI enabled systems to Ukraine. A spokeswoman for LPP said no Israeli drones were ever produced at the plant and that an earlier Planned cooperation with elbit systems never moved forward after the Czech Defense Ministry canceled the relevant tender. We do know that Russia or Russian Special Services have been accused of carrying out a number of espionage attacks across Europe. We also know that they've been using anti Israeli so called useful idiots in Europe to attack companies selling or donating weapons to Ukraine. So maybe that's what happened here. We will keep you posted. Now I'm tempted to mention something about useful idiots and Miami, but I will withhold the urge. But Francis, what have you been looking over the weekend and what's happening in Miami?
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Francis Durnley
Well, thanks, Dom. Yeah, it's been a busy weekend in the diplomatic realm as well, as you allude to at the start. We've seen the next of the peace talks between the United States and Ukraine take place on both Saturday and Sunday, delayed of course for weeks because of events in Iran. But Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were both there representing the us. We weren't sure if they would both be able to make it, but they were there, as with the Ukrainian delegation. Another similar picture as to what we've come to expect. So Rustem Umarov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, and Krylo Budanov, the head of the Presidential office, both there. Now Umarov on Saturday had this to say. The focus was on issues of reliable security guarantees and the humanitarian track, including the exchange and return of our citizens. We have made progress in aligning positions and further narrowing the circle of unresolved issues. Now, Witkoff said that the US was encouraged by the substantive engagement of the Ukrainians. So as you say, not much sign of progress. I must say I always get a little bit concerned when they talk about prisoner exchanges as being one of the key issues in these discussions. Not because it's not a vitally important issue, but because it's the only conversation that seems to have any progress and tangible result. And so if they're talking about that, it suggests that they can't talk about the other things. Maybe Russia isn't engaging on those other things and so they just resort to talking about the prisoner exchanges. We don't know. That is pure speculation on my part. But nonetheless it does worry me when we see that in references to the humanitarian track rather than the more tangible security guarantees and other things as being a core focus there. But that's not to say these exchanges aren't important, of course, between the two sides. It is a miracle that the meeting took place at all, given events in the Gulf where it like things were set to escalate even further following the ramping up of rhetoric from President Trump over the weekend. Something covered in detail on Iran, the latest, our sister podcast. Although in the last few hours President Trump has posted this on Truth Social, which may change things again. Now, this is all in capital letters, but I'm not going to shout. I'm pleased to report. I am please to report so missing a d to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which spelt like the hag, not which. Which reminds me of that will continue throughout the week. I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strike against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Blah, blah, blah.
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Dom Nicholls
Five days, taking us till the close of markets on Friday.
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Francis Durnley
Yeah, who would have thought that that might be the date that's plucked out? Now, if that is true, then we might well see a de escalation or some kind of ceasefire in the Middle east in the coming days or weeks. Now, that would have, of course, massive consequences for our theater, not least on the oil price, which Washington of course was so concerned with that it was apparently willing to turn a blind eye to Moscow's support of Tehran and even lift sanctions because of the Kremlin's role in potentially buttressing the market and dampening the impact of the strikes on Iran. Now, on that score, a remarkable story from over the weekend, which Iona Cleave reported on for the Telegraph, that Putin allegedly offered to stop intelligence sharing with Iran if the US agreed to do the same for Ukraine. Now, Washington apparently rejected that quid pro quo, sources told Politico after it was presented by Kirill Dmitriev, the Russian envoy to Witkoff and Kushner in Miami at that meeting that we reported on. So not only were they talking about the oil sanctions, they also were seemingly talking about this. We don't know any more details, but I'm sure it will come as a relief to Kyiv that that was rejected. And I wonder, Dom, did you have any reflections? I mean, do you believe it, first of all, that this is actually something they would very serious. I was, to be honest, I was really shocked that Moscow would even admit to be sharing any intelligence with Tehran.
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Dom Nicholls
Yeah, I mean, we spoke about it briefly or related on Friday. And I said they've dropped all pretense here that the Russians dropped all pretense of taking Donald Trump seriously. They're now not even trying to hide the fact that they are actively working with an ally to damage American interests and kill U.S. service personnel. I mean, that's basically what they're saying. So whilst we all suspected it before, they're now openly saying it and using it as a threat, or if not a threat, then a bargaining tool.
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Francis Durnley
Yeah.
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Dom Nicholls
So, you know, I made the point on Friday. I said they've just dropped any pretense whatsoever that they take Donald Trump seriously. They're just laughing and they're saying, we're going to continue to threaten your people and your interests unless you help us. And America have said nothing.
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Hayden
Nothing.
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Francis Durnley
Anyway, I thought it was worth us doing a further discussion on that. Ukrainians remain in disbelief over so many countries failure to stop Iran's drones. The former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, now the ambassador for Kyiv here in London, Valery Zaluzhny, has written a piece in the Telegraph, which we'll link to in the episode Notes, where he talks about the parallels between Iran and Ukraine and some of the lessons that he takes from Ukraine, which can be applied to the Middle Eastern theatre. He underscores as one of them the deficiencies in key assets required for wars between world powers. I think we can guess what he's alluding to here, particularly drones. He says we need to think carefully about whether everyone is physically ready for a fight like this. I mean, I think the answer is very much no, given many of the things that we've been talking about, not least what Don was talking about last week and that drone that was flying over the US Embassy in Baghdad seemingly unmolested. I mean, that is just a taste of where we could end up if worse comes to the worst between world powers on a broader scale. He also said that regarding the risks of a multipolar world, a destroyed balance in one part of the world brings the desire and necessity to destroy the balance in another place until the number of local conflicts approaches. A third world war in terms of intensity and consequences. Now, it's worth saying that many of his predictions about the evolving nature of the war, and particularly about the battlefield, have proven far sighted, I think it's fair to say. And he is still the favorite to succeed President Zelenskyy one day, so he's always worth paying attention to. Just turning briefly to Russia, which will be the main focus of tomorrow's episode with James Kilner there are still widespread reports of mobile Internet outages across the country, including in St. Petersburg. Now, not just Moscow, as the Kremlin rolls out its supposed white list system that only permits access to pro government social media and official state websites, among other things. Apparently it's even impacting the air alerts that people are able to get. So obviously quite a dramatic story if that is true. In Yak, 500 Russians reportedly paid $20 each to watch a K pop concert in a movie theater, but couldn't because the Internet wasn't working. Now, whether that is connected to all of this, we don't know, but it seems to have upset a lot of teenage girls. So I can imagine many unhappy parents over there in Yekaterinburg. It's leading to rare breakouts of criticism. All this in the Russian press. The BBC, Steve Rosenberg, draws attention to one mainstream tabloid writing, either they see us as kids too small and brainless to be trusted or to have anything explained to us, or the system's now so unbalanced, one part no longer knows what the other is doing. So, pretty punchy stuff. Now, speaking of our friends in the Russian intelligence service, aye, lads. The Washington Post has published a remarkable piece looking at the attempts to guarantee a win for Viktor Orban in Hungary on April 12. One of the options put forward by them apparently was to stage an assassination attempt to boost his approval ratings before the election. Now, a document obtained and verified by European intelligence describes the strategy, titled the Game Changer, that would shift the perception of the campaign out of the rational realm of social economic questions into an emotional one. It was apparently inspired by the real assassination attempt on Trump in 2024, which gave a boost to his campaign. Now, just as interesting as part of these revelations, according to European Security Services, as cited in the piece, Hungary's foreign minister regularly called Sergei Lavrov, right, during breaks in EU meetings and provided live reports on negotiations and all other sorts of details about the various parties positions and decisions that might be made further down the road. Quoting a representative of a European Security Service. Every single EU meeting for years has basically had Moscow behind the table. Now, Poland's leader, Donald Tusk has chimed in on this. He said the news that Orban's people inform Moscow about EU Council meetings in every detail shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. We've had our suspicions about that for a long time. That's one reason why I take the floor only when strictly necessary and say just as much as necessary. So two very, very big and significant stories relating to the Chief blocker of Ukraine related policies in Europe, including of course, that crucial 90 billion dol euro loan. And while we're on the subject, this Friday we released the first of three films that I made with our videographer here at the Telegraph, Elliot Daily, focused entirely on Hungary and its role in the EU at the present moment, not only in the Ukraine, Russia context, but also more broadly than that. Although the first episode which we're releasing this Friday is focused on the war and Hungary's relationship with both Ukraine and with Russia. So do check that out. Here is a short teaser to the series.
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Michael Bohnert
Starting and waging a war is not a war crime.
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Dom Nicholls
This war cannot be won by Ukraine. They are in a worse and worse situation.
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Francis Durnley
It has defence ramifications for you. It has huge defence ramifications for you. It's on your border.
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Michael Bohnert
What I think of Viktor Orban, I think he's a c. He's a traitor to the Hungarian people.
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Dom Nicholls
He's the one who can save Europe.
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Francis Durnley
Soviets sent in tanks and troops and crushed the uprising. Thousands were killed. The west watched on and did nothing. They were supposed to be in the heart of Budapest forever. Turns out eternity didn't last as long as they thought. We're currently driving to Hungary's southern border with Serbia. How do you see yourselves? Do you see yourselves as defenders of Europe?
- [24:32]
Michael Bohnert
Yes, we are.
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Francis Durnley
I should just add that we also plan to release some of the extended interviews from those documentaries which will be going out on the main Telegraph account onto our channel on Ukraine. The latest here, so you'll be able to check out some of those, including a round two with Mr. Kovacs, who, you may recall, I had that tussle with last year. So lots more on Hungary to come and I know we give a lot of focus on Hungary, but it really, really matters because of that EU veto. That's us up to date in the diplomatic realm.
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Dom Nicholls
Thank you. So this is. This was Hungary's EU rep. Well, Foreign Minister. Minister. Foreign Minister. Oh, my God. I mean, I've done some live blogging for the Telegraph. It's a massive pain in the ass to have to keep live blogging. He said that. She said that. She's wearing the blue dress. I mean, we had sausage rolls for lunch. Why. Why would you volunteer for that? Anyway, Anyway, I think we know the answer to that. Let's turn to our guest, Michael. Delighted to. Speech. Haven't spoken to you for a while. Welcome back. And never actually seen you. Or we have, but our listeners, slash viewers have not. So there you are, folks. That's that's Michael Bono.
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Francis Durnley
Welcome, welcome the legend.
- [25:37]
Michael Bohnert
Nice to finally see you face to face.
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Dom Nicholls
Always so much to talk about and not a huge amount of time. Thank you very much for getting up early, early in Washington for this. When we last spoke, Michael, this much trumpeted Russian spring offensive had not started. We're sort of analyzing it here, assessing that it has. For ease of math, we're saying it has. Do you think it has? And then I'd like to talk to you about the counterattacks that Ukraine's been able to knit together partly with the Starlink shutdown, but also because of the, well, the slightly better weather in the country. And I'll ask you after your comments about the spring offensive, how important a part is weather on military capability, not just the sensors and the cameras and the batteries, but actually on military operations. Welcome back, Michael.
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Michael Bohnert
Thank you, Dom. That's a pretty big list. So what I'll say to start off is I think the question on is this actually a spring offensive or is it just a general shift in trend? And that's the big question right now. What I will say is when you interact with anyone that's been on the front over the past three, four, five months outside of the immediate fortress belt region, they comment on how quiet it's been where there's maybe one or two Russian attempts of a four person infiltration team a day. That's about it. Now, whether that was Russia conserving forces for something later or indicative of a broader shortage in manpower or equipment, that's to be told. But I think that's something that might indicate this is more of their intended offensive for the spring than not. So we'll start there. When it comes to the recent counteroffensives, I think you've been really hitting the nail on the head the past couple of weeks simply just talking about we have these big zones of territory that only have a few folks per square kilometer, if even that dense. And so I've actually been using your paper analogy recently of if I have a 1, 2, 3 and 4 at each corner, it doesn't mean either side has really been taking that territory. It's really just the no man's land has gotten so much larger and one side claiming the no man's land is theirs. When you look at the actual depth of operations for both sides, with drones able to look 100km either way of the zero line, so the actual point of contact, it really changes how strikes can occur. Both sides can strike 30, 40, 60 km in some instances deep. So that Greatly changes what we think of the deep battle and what we think of the space that allows you to cross in the time. So that's something new. I mean, the first World War, that space was measured in hundreds of meters. Now it's almost 200km. So that's a very different dynamic than what we're used to. And I mean, when you think about it from NATO doctrine perspective, the idea of a corps itself is to shape somewhere between 102 kilometers deep. Well, if you have battalions that are 50 kilometers or more, that really kind of changes the overall structure of depth of the battle.
- [28:47]
Dom Nicholls
Yeah, no, no, I can see. Well straight away the logisticians in the room will be shouting, see, I told you, I told you. It's all about distance, not just blankets, anyway, onto the weather. So with these counter attacks, as I say, a number of things have happened at the same time. The Starlink shut down and weather or the spring offensive started and all that kind of stuff. But the weather has shifted. When we were last air, what, three weeks ago, it was the, it was hovering around the 0.0 degrees centigrade, which was a bit nippy for us. But we, we had to sort of keep our grumbling to ourselves because most people wandering around saying it was a barmy, a balmy summer's afternoon because they were used to sort of minus 20. Now that has an effect on military kit as well as the humans. But if we can just focus on the equipment, what effect does weather have good and bad weather have on battery life, sensors, Just how everything works together. What happens to the fluids and the oils in an armored vehicle, for example, in really bad weather and then conversely when it gets slightly better, as we've seen the last couple of weeks?
- [29:46]
Michael Bohnert
Well, there's a reason why humans like sort of being in that temperate 15 to 30 degrees Celsius, or, you know, 50 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit. It's very comfortable for us in part because that's a comfortable room for water, for oils, for alcohol. All of the things that we encounter with on a daily basis. There's a certain level of fluidity and viscosity that work well. So I'll start with one that kind of was a factor early on in the war. Tires. So some of us, going back to February and March of 2022, remember pictures of all of the Russian vehicles with busted tires. Temperatures were well below freezing and many of these wheeled vehicles were just stuck. Well, you know, it was attributed to cheap Chinese tires that everyone talked about. But what many people today Forget now that we have all season tires is going back 20, 30 years. Almost everyone had winter and summer tires. And the reason is that rubber itself has this nominally 50 degree Fahrenheit 20, 30 ish degree Celsius range where it likes to operate. Scientists have been able to push it out to about 50% more than that. But when rubber gets a little too cold, it doesn't track as well. It gets stiffer, it gets more brittle. So if you're going through cold ground in winter, you're taking a lot more stress and that's more likely to cause the sidewalls of tires to buckle. If you're in the summer and it's warmer, on the other hand, the tires get stickier. So actually, driving gets a little harder at higher speeds, because higher speeds tires get warmer, stick to the road, it's a little harder to control and your tires wear faster. So it sounds minor, but as we saw, if they had summer tires on those vehicles and driving through that cold, hard ground, you would expect buckling. Exactly what happened back in January. So just kind of a little stroll through history on the weather front and just ground. We always talk about wheeled vehicles versus tracked vehicles, and it's not just what's a tank and what's not a tank, although we could discuss that for weeks on end. But the advantage of tracked vehicles is they tend to be a little more robust in terms of what the ground looks like. So, for instance, when there's mud, when there's snow, when there's uneven terrain, that longer span of the track, that wider contact with the surface of the ground, really enables much better traction when things aren't great, but the cost is lower speed. A big example of this was actually around 2017, 2018, when the Latvians bought these wheeled vehicles. And there was a lot of people making fun of purchasing these older vehicles from the UK and elsewhere. Well, one of the reasons they did that was because of the boggy terrain in the Baltics, that these were the heaviest vehicles that could operate year round in the backcountry, and they also were small enough that you could house them. So there's different reasons why you pick your vehicles, pick your tires, and I apologize to everyone, this might seem very much in the weeds, but it actually starts to really matter from an operational flexibility perspective. So another example that's definitely going to be at the forefront of everyone's minds right now is the effect of temperature on batteries. So, batteries, they're not solid state, even though we think of them as these solid state batteries in Reality, there's actually some flow that happens, happens. So what that means is if they get too cold, the flow stops down and they lose their energy or they discharge slower. So what that means is you have potentially less range or you don't get as much power out of the batteries, you might not be able to go as quickly. However, when the temperature gets really hot, so much above kind of our standard room temperatures, you actually see a similar effect. Now, that being said, you can tailor the design of a battery to work better in hot or cold temperatures, but it means it also works much worse in the other. So as we're thinking about that, the same batteries that you're using in drones in winter and summer, you're probably going to want to have them different. Now, at the rate Ukraine goes through drones, every many cases, it's factory to frontline in a matter of days, it's easy to swap it out. But that supply line, that logistics chain, that production chain from raw materials on takes time. And so I'm just going to do a little bit of an industrial tie in here. If I'm thinking of this industrial scale warfare, I could pay a lot of money for a battery that could cover the full spectrum of temperatures, or I might be able to get a battery that's cheaper, but only works in say, summer and the first half of fall and winter, and then its performance gets worse and vice versa. Well, a question for the commanders is would you rather have more assets, more batteries, maybe 10, 20% more, or, but you have to use them in those seasons or would you have greater flexibility and you can cover a longer duration? But there's this user lose aspect because if they're not as functional because of a seasonal change, you might actually be better off with the more robust platforms. So we talk about these in abstract. Oh, they're just small, tactical, but actually from this industrial scale warfare that we're in now, having 20% more capacity to kill than your adversary. That's the difference between the kill rate we saw of 800 to 1000 Russian casualties a day to 1200 to 1400. So we really do see these tangible strategic impacts of very minor changes in weather. And that's even before we get to sensing and effectiveness.
- [35:58]
Dom Nicholls
That's fascinating stuff. I mean, it is that accumulation of lots of different aspects, isn't it? But it's incredible. As you've seen, we've seen the results on the ground and we try and unpick it and say, well, what's happened? Where have they pushed through? And of course it's very rarely one straightforward answer. It's a lot of small things that are all working in concert.
- [36:15]
Michael Bohnert
And we're talking about weather. Time of day actually matters a lot too, where that even gets completely lost. So when you look at sensing, sensing is all about the scientists will say signal to noise. What it comes down to is how different are you from the background. So normally Francis has more interesting outfits. And so I actually picked my outfit today to discuss the differences. But if the three of us are in a crowd and I'm wearing the suit jacket with relatively minor difference in color of shirt, I might blend in one way with the crowd where Dom, you know, his arms, you know, tend to be exposed a little more. He shows a little more of his chest, how he buttons up his shirt probably sticks out a little bit more
- [36:58]
Dom Nicholls
in a formal crowd pulling a hegseth. Yeah.
- [37:00]
Michael Bohnert
And Francis tends to look more like an intern with his skinny ties and white shirt that he's wearing today. Just to fully describe to everyone that's listening.
- [37:09]
Francis Durnley
Careful, Michael. It was going so well.
- [37:11]
Michael Bohnert
I'm wearing a brown suit jacket and kind of a dark purplish shirt. So why does this matter to sensing? If you look very different from the crowd, you're going to stand out more. So that's a big piece of it. So if you don't want to get detected, you want to look as similar to what's around you. So if you're thinking of the seasonally, in summer, there's trees, there's animals, there's all sorts of different colors. So there's a lot of noise. So if Francis is wearing one of his more, you know, interesting suits, he might be able to blend it in more with the background and you have trees and other clutter in front of you. Whereas if you're in the spring, where there's or fall where there's a lot of rain and everything's just different colors of mud, something that's a little more brown, you might not have those trees in front of you, but your color differential at the background, you can disguise yourself to look more similarly similar. In snow, you might be able to be in all white. So if you're strolling through in the summer and you go from tree line with green to yellow grass, you have to change up your camouflage or your way to conceal yourself. So that's just one way seasons affect sensing. Then if we look at time of day during the daytime, standard cameras, electro optical, as we say, are pretty good at finding things. They're able to look for those differences and they're looking for kind of a size, so we call it characteristic length. But the idea is what size are you relative to the pixels on that camera? So you want to be smaller or the drone needs to be closer. Well, at nighttime those cameras don't work as well. So at that point we use infrared cameras because they're looking for heat signatures and heat differences. Well, everyone talks about night and day. What they tend to forget about is that dawn and dusk. So during dawn and dusk you get these deep shadows as the sun's rising and falling and they're very dynamic. So you're seeing all sorts of movement and the clutter is changing. You see vehicles change temperature at different times. So if you have a tank of water and a tank of fuel, they have different thermal mass, so they're going to heat up and cool down differently that you only see in that dusk or dawn. So if I'm targeting in a more dynamic fashion, dusk and dawn, I might be able to target fuel versus water or an empty tank versus a full tank. If you look. A lot of the pictures you see tend to show combat during dawn and dusk because of these shadows and because the temperatures are changing. The electro optical is having trouble with the shadows, the infrared is having trouble with the changes in temperature. Because if I'm looking for a person to be a certain difference from the background, it's very hard when the background's constantly changing. So you know, we're going through all of these and how that affects a commander's decision. Which drones do I use? Do I buy an expensive drone? Do I buy one with two types of cameras that is a lot more expensive, but then I can use it any time of day? If I don't have the right camera, maybe I want to use more artillery. So these shifts once again relate to your industrial warfare. How much robustness do I want versus volume? So this all goes back to your industrial warfare and those production lines and how you want want to give that commander's decisions. And then I just want to bring one other point that Dom really focused on in 2023 and 2024 is if that commander knows they have consistent vehicle and resupply, they might be more willing to tailor which weapons to which weather condition or which time of day. Because you might be willing to be a little less robust in those higher end systems just to kind of loop it all together.
- [41:03]
Dom Nicholls
Thanks. Now, as you mentioned, production lines there, and one thing that we've been speculating on for a few days now is whether or not the Flamingo, the Ukrainian Domestically produced cruise missile, long range cruise missile are finally coming online in the numbers that they say they want them to. Do you think Flamingo is there now as a regular available military capability? And if so, do you think we're going to see Moscow attacked?
- [41:26]
Michael Bohnert
Well, so we saw the strikes on St. Petersburg, the oil terminal over the night. That looked like something hit them that was more than a propeller drone. Whether or not that was the Flamingo, that's yet to be determined. Because it was at night, we didn't get a good view. But given that multiple large explosions were seen, something got through air defenses and whatever it was had a relatively large warhead. That being said, I think we're going to start seeing more of it. They seem to have that production going. But a question is, you know, there's utilities and where you have easy access. So we've all seen the footage of all of the Russian air defenses that have put on top of buildings around Moscow. So first and foremost, can you even get a missile there successfully or are you better off somewhere further away? I think the answer is somewhere away from Moscow. Probably a higher probability of success. The next question is military utility. What is getting you kind of more bang for your buck in this case, literally? Would you rather be hitting refineries, oil terminals, the production facilities for ballistic missiles, for instance, I think is a very high value target right now, given a lack of patriots. You want to force your adversary to use what you want them to use. In this case, you want them to use drones because Ukraine's pretty good at drones. You don't want them using ballistic missiles. So I think the ballistic missile supply chain is really where there would be much more of a value. And that stretches all the way to your Kateringberg. There's some. I'm going to plug a competitor here. I think Rusi's reports on this are very detailed. But you look at a Flamingo going at very high subsonic, all of the gun systems that you've seen Russia employed are not really going to be effective against the high subsonic. Once you get above 0.3, machine gun systems really don't work well other than protecting yourself. So if the Flamingos really are coming online, that ability to get one or two missiles through without losing a lot is going to be very valuable, especially for those factories not in the Moscow media region.
- [43:31]
Dom Nicholls
Interesting. Thank you. Now, we've heard that ground drones are the area of biggest potential innovation, but do you think ground drones offer real military utility or are they just a good example of innovation? And what's possible, Are they? I don't want to say gimmick, but how much real utility do you think ground drones offer and do you think they hope they've got the growth potential that some people are telling us?
- [43:52]
Michael Bohnert
I mean, we've seen a lot of them be used very successfully for logistics and casualty evacuation because they're relatively cheap and commanders have been willing to send them into places they won't send a manned platform. So revolutionary? Evolutionary, I'd say probably more evolutionary. But one way to think about it is are they maybe displacing the Hilux? Now, we've talked for years about pickup trucks being used for high utility. One question is in areas where you normally would have sent a pickup truck to do deliveries, the drone gives the commander, okay, I don't want to lose a person for this, but I have this wheeled or light tracked vehicle. I think we're seeing that kind of substitution principle when it comes to combat power. Offensive, defensive, I think is a question. I think using them to get drones closer to the front to use cheaper drones, I think we're there now. It looks like that is a legitimate use case. Once again, that's not a gimmick, but it's not a game changer, I think for the offensive gun use and combat drones. You know, Terminator, I don't think we're anywhere there yet.
- [45:02]
Dom Nicholls
Foreign.
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- [46:13]
Hayden
howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan Fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
- [46:20]
Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Daddy.
- [46:24]
Hayden
And we are currently De Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
- [46:33]
Stephen
That's right.
- [46:33]
Dom Nicholls
Hey hey.
- [46:34]
Stephen
So each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single chapter.
- [46:38]
Hayden
And along the way we'll do character deep dives, magic explainers, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
- [46:45]
Stephen
News flash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday and you can find Fantasy Fan Fellas wherever you get your podcast.
- [47:02]
Dom Nicholls
Let's move to our final thoughts. I'll start, if I may. One thing we've spoken about a lot recently is Interceptor drones. Now this is another area, like first person view drones and fiber optic control drones. This is an area we need to get our head around. So I will point you to an article in United24 Media that talks about the family of Interceptor drones currently fielded by Ukraine. You've got the P1 sun, and it explains the backstory to why it came up with that name. The Sting, the Stria, the Serov eight, and the Octopus. Now, it's very easy to get out of date and be overtaken by events. So do go and have a look at that United 24 Media article on Interceptor drones. We'll put a link in the episode notes just so we all know where we are and what we're talking about. Francis, what's your final thoughts?
- [47:41]
Francis Durnley
We've had something in the post bag from Brigadier Richard Tilley retired, and I had to read this one out. It says, dear Francis, I refer to your podcast on Pigeons in War, dated 5 February 2026. My story took place over a century ago, on 16 May 1900. The setting was the small town of Mafking in South Africa during the Second Boer War. the time, the town had just been under siege by the Boers for seven months. I'm sure you remember it well. Dom, now the commander of the troops, Robert Baden Powell, was also developing what would become the Boy Scouts movement during the time. Now the worldwide organization the British needed to lift the siege, a batch of documents from Baden Powell arrived with a small basket containing two pigeons. A message was attached to one of the pigeons telling Baden Powell a relief force was on the way, except they'd run out of gummed paper to attach the message to the bird's leg, so they. They had to use a stamp. This was the first time in war that we know of that a stamp was used in flight anywhere. The first official airmail stamp flight, and even three years before the Wright brothers first powered one. Finally, it may interest you in Dom to know that Badanov is reportedly an avid stamp collector, among his many other attributes. He therefore joins an august group of collectors that has included many kings and queens, as well as General Field Marshal Rommel. Thought you'd find that fascinating, Dom. I know I did. Thanks for that, Richard.
- [48:59]
Dom Nicholls
Thanks, Richard. Michael, as our guest, where would you like to leave audience today?
- [49:05]
Michael Bohnert
So, as an Eagle Scout, I always love the Lord Baden Powell reference, but I think as we're looking forward over the next year or two, Russia definitely was having structural issues in terms of either manpower generation, military production, and then their economy more broadly. I think what will be very interesting to see over the next few months and years is a combination of deep strikes as well as lack of replacement parts for industry. How that will actually start to have a serious effect. I point to Yerkateringburg. That was where the Soviet Union moved much of its production away from front lines. Ukraine can now strike there. That's historically an untouchable region. So I think once you start seeing strikes there, that will have both a psychological blow as well as an industrial blow that Russia has not had to contend with yet.
- [50:02]
Dom Nicholls
Well, and when those blows land, we will of course be bringing them straight to you. So, team, thanks so much for today. Francis, thank you for your input. Michael, lovely to see you. Thanks for coming back. We do always enjoy your. Your input. Thank you so much for talking us through those things today. We look forward to chatting again soon. That's us, folks. We'll be here again same time tomorrow. Do hope you can join us everyone here, the Telegraph newsroom in London. I wish you a very good afternoon.
- [50:25]
Francis Durnley
Thanks everyone. Ukraine the latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio. Maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe at www.YouTube.com Crainethelatest. There's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepost podelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk. ukraine the latest Ukraine. The latest was Today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Durnley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [51:50]
Michael Bohnert
My name is David Knowles.
- [51:52]
Dom Nicholls
Thank you all for listening.
- [51:53]
Hayden
Goodbye, howdy, howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan Fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
- [52:10]
Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Daddy.
- [52:14]
Hayden
And we are currently deep diving Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
- [52:23]
Stephen
That's right.
- [52:23]
Dom Nicholls
Hey, Hei.
- [52:24]
Stephen
So each week, you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single chapter.
- [52:28]
Hayden
And along the way, we'll do character deep dives, magic explain, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
- [52:35]
Stephen
News flash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday, and you can find Fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:43]
Hayden
Okay, caller one wins courtside seats to tonight's game. What? I won floor seats. You did? I've been calling for 13 months. Wait. Chris.
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Michael Bohnert
Yes.
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Hayden
I finally did it. What are you gonna wear? Men's Wearhouse. They've got today's looks for any occasion. And I need to look like a celebrity. Don't want to stick out. Exactly. They've got Chill Flex by Kenneth Cole, Joseph Abboud, and a tailor at every store for the perfect fit.
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Michael Bohnert
Congrats. You can stop calling now.
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Hayden
Not a chance. Hit any look for every occasion at Men's Wearhouse. Love the way you look.
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Michael Bohnert
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