← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Russian troops ‘surrender to army robots’ in war first & interview with former CIA operative on Putin’s spycraft
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Francis Dernley
The telegraph.
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David Knowles
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
law
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Dominic Nichols
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
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Francis Dernley
ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere.
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Dominic Nichols
Acast.com Foreign.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
I'm Francis Dernley and this is Ukraine the latest Today as new evidence emerges that Russia is increasing sign on bonuses to recruit more soldiers for its war, we report on efforts to ramp up defenses around Putin's palace. We also examined dramatic political developments in Hungary where the new Prime Minister has vowed to expose alleged Russian links amid reports of document shredding by allies of former leader Viktor Orban. And later we speak to a former CIA operative about Russian disinformation tactics, the failures of Kremlin intelligence services and what they've learned and not learned from this war.
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Dominic Nichols
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Russia does not want Feeschen Werther.
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Dominic Nichols
If I'm president I will have that
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
war settled in one day.
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Dominic Nichols
24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Nobody's going to break us.
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Dominic Nichols
We are strong.
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Francis Dernley
We are Ukrainians.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
It's Tuesday the 14th of April, four years and 49 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by my co host and associate editor of Defence here at the Telegraph, Dominic Nichols and former senior operations officer in the CIA and author of a new book on Russian espionage tradecraft, Sean Wiswesser. But first over to Dom for the latest in the military realm.
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Dominic Nichols
Well thanks Francis. So just a few hours ago there Was a very large explosion in Dnipro, that's in the centre of the country. So about 11:30am local time just after the authorities had warned of an incoming missile. Large explosion, killed five injured, 24. Now reports only just coming in that I've seen so very few details but it seems to be just one explosion, possibly from that missile that had been warned of. But as I say, no, no new details, no other details. Looks like it blasted in a. In a built up area. Buildings and cars said to be hit but like I say, five killed, 24 injured. I'll keep an eye on that and see if anything changes over the next hour or elsewhere. Not a huge amount of movement on the ground. There are some cross border operations by Russia in the vicinity of the border area up in the northeast of Sumy. There have been a number of these sort of pulses if you like, across the border or taking advantage of the lower troop density there by Ukraine anyway, it seems to have coalesced into something. They haven't got very deep. But Ukraine's 14th Army Corps said in a statement as a result of intensive military operations the the opponent's advantage in force and means the units of the Ukrainian armed forces to preserve the lives of personnel have moved to a new prepared border where they will continue to hold the defence. The armed forces of Ukraine are controlling the situation, conducting surveillance and are ready for further military action. So sounds like they've retreated a bit. We're not entirely sure where to when they say a new prepared border. That sounds slightly ominous anyway. Nearby and also in sumy oblast, Ukraine's 71st Separate Air Mobile Brigade said 29 Russian soldiers who had been attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian rear areas via a gas pipeline had been spotted and killed. Now this is not the first time they've tried to use that pipeline or others. We've seen it before in the Donbass. The Brigade there, the 71st separate air mobile Brigade, said the group tried to exploit poor weather but didn't succeed. And in their statement they said the real goal of the occupiers appears to be self defense demilitarization. Nearby and Kharkiv oblast Governor Ole Sibunov said earlier today that Russian forces had targeted critical infrastructure in Kharkiv oblast with glide bombs. Now six of these bombs seem to have been directed at the Pecheny dam, that's about 20 kilometers due east of Kharkiv. That's one of the largest reservoirs in the region, a key piece of infrastructure there. Subhanov was speaking on national television. This is Kyiv Independent reporting. From what I saw, the imagery I saw the dam was still intact. But clearly Russia is trying to replicate what they did on the Novikakovka Dam down south a couple of years ago. Now elsewhere, there's a lot of pushing and pulling up and down the line. A little bit of ground taken by both sides and lost by both sides, but no significant move to the line. Ukraine's General staff said that 820 Russian casualties were created yesterday. Russia, they say, fired 129 drones and four KH59 or 69 variant guided missiles. Ukraine's air force says they were all brought down apart from 1212 air munitions. They didn't delineate if it was drones or missiles, but 12 got through. So as well as those killed in Dnipro, two other people were killed, both in Herzon and nearly 20 injured. Odessa was hit badly over the last 24 hours. A number of passenger buses, residential buildings and vehicles were hit there. Amazingly, no casualties reported in Odessa. But in the early hours of the morning, Russian forces also said to have attacked a Liberia flagged bulk carrier whilst it was underway towards the port of Chonomorsk, which is just down the coast from Odessa. Hombre Intelligence, the Global Maritime Risk Management Agency said they've seen still imagery of the aftermath of the attack which shows the wreckage of a drone that struck the port side of the vessel's accommodation block alongside an impact hole and associated blast damage to the port side of the vessel's funnel. They say a fire was reported on board, subsequently extinguished and Ukrainian Navy asset was dispatched to provide assistance. No injuries reported at the time of recording. Now there are a number of reports, but without any detail, somewhat annoyingly, of Ukrainian strikes across the occupied areas of Crimea and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. But I couldn't find any more detail of exactly what was hit where, but I'll keep an eye on that and hopefully have more detail to tomorrow. And then just now, you may remember last Thursday when we were speaking to James Kilner, he was talking about how Russia has increased the sign on bonuses to get more men into the army. This has been ongoing for, for a long time, but the sign on bonuses, the value went up, then it dipped for quite a few months last year, but it's just been going up again in the, in what's only this year now research by economist Janice Klug at the German Institute for International and Security affairs says that despite higher sign on bonuses, Russian forces only recruited between 800 and 1000 soldiers a day only. But 800 to 1000 soldiers a day in the first quarter of this year, compared to 10001200 for the same period last year. So 20% decrease year on year. Now that's despite these average sign on bonuses reaching a record high of 1.47 million rubles, just over US$19,000 last month. This boarding comes from the ISW, the Institute for the Study of War, the US based think tank. They say they're unable to verify the underlying data, but say the clue also assessed, based on Russian Finance Ministry data, that Russian authorities paid compensation payments to the families of around 25,000 killed Russian soldiers again in the first quarter of this year, compared to 20,000 thereabouts in the first quarter of last year. So again an increase and that is up from 10,000 in the first quarter of 2024. So it's very difficult to get an idea, a good idea of exactly what's going on personnel wise. But these, these are little indicators, as James, James would say. Now, wider reporting, including from organizations such as Ukraine's I Want to Live initiative that we've spoken about before, say that so far in 2026, Russia is not only not recruiting enough people to meet its own targets that it set itself, but they're also losing more men in casualties than it is replacing. That has been a feature so far this year. We will see if that continues. This will get Ukraine on track for there they want to kill 50,000 Russians a month and I think at the moment they're up to about that number of casualties. Obviously casualties is more than just killed. Now, President Zelensky, this comes obviously on the back of President Zelensky saying that Russian forces have likely been committing their strategic reserves to the battlefield in recent weeks to compensate for these mounting casualties. That is significant, as I've said before, for you always need to have a reserve at every level of command. You only use your reserves as a last resort or to exploit an overwhelming success. But you, you need to use them for a very finite period only and then reconstitute them because you have to have something in your back pocket. So if Russia is committing its strategic reserve just to make up for the loss of numbers, that is as far as Russia is concerned, not a good sign because what do they then have as a strategic reserve? Or when do they say job done now pull back lads and reconstitute and get ready to go again, which they're not able to do if they're in, in contact. Now a couple more for me. I'd like to point listeners and viewers to A story by our colleague Antonia Langford, our colleague in Kiev. She says that the, the amount of air defense around Putin's palatial residence on Lake Valdai has been beefed up and there are now 27 air defense towers mounted with pan anti aircraft systems. This is according to an investigation she says by radios of aboder citing satellite imagery. This has no doubt expanded because of Russia's concern, or maybe Putin's own personal concern about Kyiv's evolving long range drone capabilities. In particular the Firepoint series of, of missiles, including the flamingo. Now in 2024 there were only seven air defense towers around the complex. So not the one down in Sochi, this is the one just north of west, about 180 odd k's northwest of
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
which is the one with the golden toilet, I seem to remember.
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Dominic Nichols
I think that was the one in Sochi, but I don't want to, I
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
don't think, I think we're going to get to visit and see it ourselves somehow.
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Dominic Nichols
No. So 2024, there are only seven around this, this, you know, lakeside residence. That's a quarter of the current total. New construction started in mid March. Now we often say, where's all the air defense? Why were all these Ukrainian missiles getting through? Where is all the air defense? Well, I think we now know the answer, but for comparison. So there' of these things around his Lake Valdai palace, the entire Moscow metropolitan region, so not just the city, but the wider, the Wider region, houses 20 million people, has just 60 of these systems. So about half, you know, Lake Valdi's got 27, so about half the entire defense of Moscow, which either says there's not a huge amount of defense of Moscow, or Putin is so terrified that he's got an enormous amount of air defense around Lake Valdai. So what's he hiding? He's there occasionally, but what else is he hiding? Well, it's thought to be home to his secret long term partner, Alina Kibaeva, former Olympic rhythmic gymnast, no pun, no jokes please. And their two sons. I've had a look on, you can see this on Google Maps if you, if you zoom in on Lake Valda. It's just in the northeast, northeast corner there you can see a little Runway and a helipad. You can see, see where this thing is surrounded by water. There's thick forest nearby. So you know, it's difficult to get at it by drone. And it's thought to, Antonio says that it's thought to contain a bunker and an exact replica of Putin's office. The office he has in the Kremlin. So when he's filmed either for, you know, for us for external consumption or on his, on his sort of zoom calls, no one knows where he is. Is he in the Kremlin? Is he, Is he, Is he a couple hundred miles away, etc, etc.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
We're not filming this in London, we're actually in the Bahamas.
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Dominic Nichols
Yeah, we're in Lake Valdine. Yeah. Now, so the investigative outlet Proct. Proed. Sorry, I don't know if I've pronounced that correctly. Anyway, they say it's also got a cryo chamber, a solarium, a hammam, a mud room and a number of private medical facilities. And he is thought to go there if he doesn't fly, he's thought to travel to and from on an armored train which is pretty, pretty old, like a goldeneye. Well, I was thinking that. Yeah, I was thinking that and then just finally for me, in the last hour I've seen this. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine's Defense Minister. He's announced a 4 billion euro defense package agreed with Germany. He says this is a massive boost for air defense funding for several hundred patriot missiles and 36 Iris T launchers. That's another air defense system, 36 RST launchers to protect our cities and critical infrastructure, he said. I'm grateful to Boris Pistorius as German's Defense Minister and the German leadership for support within the Build with Ukraine initiative. We're launching joint AI mid strike drone production. I've no idea what mid strike drones. Oh, maybe it's range or something. I've not heard that expression before. Mid strike. If you know what that is, please let me know. And then Mr. Ferros said the first stage includes 5, 000 units for the air defenses. He finishes by saying Ukrainian experience plus German engineering equals a new standard for defense tech. It's very interesting what they're doing at the moment in their Ukraine's defense industrial infrastructure which we'll talk a little bit about about later on and the potential model and lessons for the wider world and possibly a US absent European NATO if I've not mangled that completely. But anyway, we'll talk about that a little bit later.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Well, thanks very much. I'm just thinking about goldeneye now. Candidate for the best Bond film, I
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Dominic Nichols
think, Spy Love Me.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Yeah, it does have that great skiing sequence at the beginning. But isn't that the one with some slightly dubious.
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Dominic Nichols
I think anything about 1996 has very dubious lines.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Yeah, it's dubious. Anyway, so let's go into speaking of dubious characters, Hungary. This is, of course, the big story of the week. We've been looking at this in detail for some time. And we had new Prime Minister Peter Magyar yesterday giving that press conference that James Crisp was at and was talking to us about. So if you missed that, listen to yesterday's podcast. But he's given some more details, Magyar, about what allegedly has been going on in Orban's government and indeed in the last 24 hours or so. So he's claimed that Sujato, Orban's foreign minister, he's the individual who was caught in those tapes talking to Lavrov in ways that were deemed ra friendlier than one might expect between normal diplomats. Apparently, he's barricaded himself and some of his closest colleagues in his office, or former office, I suppose, now, and he's destroying and shredding evidence about sanctions against Russians. So quite a claim from the new prime minister. He also said at the press conference yesterday when asked about Ukraine specifically, that Ukraine had the full right to defend itself against Russian aggression and. And cannot be forced to cede territory. He added, you should ask Fidesz politicians, that's Orban's party, what would happen if Russia attacked Hungary? Which Hungarian county, region would they give up? Well, as you may have heard last week, that's one of the questions I actually put to some of Orban's officials. And they were, let's put it this way, exceedingly evasive about what their answer would be and were very reluctant to give any answers that would be in praise of the fact that the Ukrainians actually shot back. And I think what makes that all the more extraordinary, as we looked at it in those films, was, you know, the history of Hungary in 1956 and the role this plays in its national identity. When the Soviets sent in tanks and men, even some officials who'd previously said that 56 was a mistake. And that's indeed what Magi said yesterday. He said, the talk of Orban's officials is outrageous, cynical talk, unworthy of our 1956 Heroes and Freedom fighters. Now, as we were talking about yesterday, Dom, neither Trump or anyone in the US administration has extended congratulations for the new prime minister. Russia also rebuffed it yesterday. Other countries, of course, have been much more vocal in their support. I expect this story to run beyond Hungary for some time. Magyar also spoke yesterday about cpac. Hungary, which is the Conservative Political Action Conference, will be well known to many of you because of its senior role in sort of coordinating conservative movements. Across Europe and indeed in the United States. Quite often they take place in the United States or in Hungary in the European context. And he commented on this yesterday, Magyar saying that it was paid for by the Hungarian state using funneled funds and said the state should never have financed them in the first place, it was a crime. He then said of course the conference could go ahead, but it shouldn't be coming from taxpayer funds. And where this all gets muddy is because of apparently the schemes that were used by Orban to take money from the taxpayer, give it to another organization which allocated it, then think tanks and conferences for these conservative outlets and other conferences. It raises interesting ethical questions about what governments can and cannot do ethically in terms of intervening in other political movements around the world. But nonetheless, clearly in the political context at the moment, what really matters for the Hungarians or the new administration is where taxpayers money goes. But I think that's an interesting conversation for us to have. Another time. I suspect there are a few politicians in Europe which will be turning on their shredders and clicking delete in all of their inboxes given the alleged amount of money that was being given to other European politicians by the Orban government. Although of course I think a lot of those claims have not yet been proved. So it's just worth underscoring that now. It's worth Remembering that the 90 billion euros package isn't the only thing that Hungary has been reluctant to get involved in in the European defence context. In his address yesterday, President Zelenskyy marked Ukraine's Defence Industry Worker Day. That's an annual holiday we've spoken about before, founded in 20 observed on April 13 each year. He called workers in the arms industry the invisible heroes of our defence, highlighting Ukraine's technological achievements. He said we are not holding a weapons fair or emptying our warehouses. We are offering a security partnership, one that is long term and profitable for Ukraine. He then went on to talk about the role of Ukrainian interceptor drones in the Middle east, which has of course been a big story of the last few weeks. And then he said as early as this week we will have talks with Europeans on creating a joint air defence system. I am confident either Ukraine will become an integral part of the European security system or some in Europe risk this becoming part of the Russian world. So Dom, this is I think quite an interesting conversation more broadly here of the Ukrainians becoming closer aligned with European defence procurement and indeed European defences more broadly. I mean, what were your reflections on those remarks?
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Dominic Nichols
Yeah, I think this is alluded to earlier I think this is an interesting time to look at Ukraine. So they've, over the last few years they've. Well, first of all they were, they still are fighting for their survival, but the last year especially they have really knitted together this demand signal from the military, aligned to the political objectives from the, from the political executive. But what the military need to do that combined with or geared with the defense industrial base and what society is willing to take in terms of, you know, taxes and personnel and who goes in the army and who stays and builds these things and, and what have you, the whole societal resilience thing, they've really got that. They found their mojo really and they're now talking and they're taking advantage. Can't blame them at all for that. Politically of the chaos in the Middle east, we've seen Zelensky and the whole drone interceptor offer to Gulf countries, but you know, they are now saying the war for them, this catalyst, this ability, this petri dish, if you like, of how to fight in the, in the modern world, the speed of innovation that's required combined with the scale of mass, massat scale, they are projecting a model about how to dock with other countries and that is interesting about what the future of, of Europe might be. I mean, you know, arguably the most most powerful, the most innovative, the most experienced army in Europe right now is Ukraine. So you know, we can learn an awful lot from them. And they're talking about how to, how to dock. As we saw today, this deal with Germany is just one of, one of many they've been working on so trying to knit together that Europe. And that I think is particularly interesting given the reluctance or the coolness in the relationship between European NATO and the United States. So if the US either withdraws from NATO, which I don't think is going to happen, but if they go, go, cool. I think that the lesson is, I hope the lesson has been learned that, that Europe needs to really get its act together in defense terms and work better together. And that's not just the military is all going on exercise together. That's, that's knitting together and getting over some of these difficult questions about sovereign defense capability and who gets all the jobs and where does all the money go, etc, etc. So I think there's this model that Ukraine have at the moment that they are now trying to export out is a really interesting template for the future. Where are the docking points? We want to learn all the lessons from Ukraine, but we don't want to say that this war is how all wars will now be fought. But there are some really important lessons here that show how society, industry, politics and the military can all knit together in a much more rapid and efficient way than, than we've experienced here in the UK in the past. I mean, just look at Lord Robinson's comments. I think this is an interesting time and what Ukraine is able to offer to Europe in particular, but especially the world more broadly, but especially in Europe. I think a lot of people need to sit up and really take notice of this and see Ukraine not as the petri dish of a, of an interesting modern war, but a modern relationship between the political, executive leadership, society, business, industry and the military.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
It's the big conversation, isn't it, for the, that's coming down the tracks. I agree. Just something else that President Zelensky said in his address last night that caught my eye and I know you'll have a view on this, Dom. He said, for the first time in the war, an enemy position was captured entirely by ground robotic systems and drones. Without any infantry, a robot entered the most dangerous zones instead of a soldier and took the positions. Now this is part of course, of his conversations about we're the pioneers. We are the technological powerhouse in terms of weapons innovation. I mean, do you believe him?
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Dominic Nichols
Well, that statement there. Yeah, I believe that I would ask. So it's taken this position, Mr. Zelensky, presence. Lansky. These, these robots took this position. Great. How long do they hold it for? You know, robots can't hold ground. You need humans to hold ground. I mean, firstly, they might run out of ammunition, they might fall over and need repair. I mean, you can't hold position. Now, I don't know what happened in this instant. I've not seen any wider reporting. I don't know if there were half a dozen bedraggled Russian soldiers who saw a load of drones and a robot coming at them and went, you know, whatever the Russian is for, I surrender. In which case, yeah, fine, they've taken the position, but that is entirely different. It's not the end of the story. Of course. It is an innovation. It's interesting to see, but let's not kid ourselves that robots yet. Forever is a very long, a very long time. But let's not kid ourselves that robots can take and hold positions in a meaningful way right now. Now maybe they moved in and littered the place with mines, so it's unusable. Possibly, but I don't think we're, we're yet at sort of Terminator style robots holding defensive positions. It's the holding of the position, if that's what this comes down to, the holding of land. And who has the cards to play in any negotiations because of who holds the land? Well, robots aren't going to be able to hold. They might take, but they can't hold land.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Yet, as we've talked about before, it's not necessarily the innovation, it's the scale up that's the key measure in this war. Of course, drones have been able to be innovated and scaled up, hence why they've been so transformative. But these robots, presumably they're expensive, then, as you say, going to be there in their infancy. We're not going to see them transforming the battlefield necessarily anytime soon.
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Dominic Nichols
Well, I mean, that's a massive conversation. I mean, arguably they have transformed the battlefield, but. But in terms of what, what you mean, what tasks you want them to do. I noticed today that Ukraine's using ground drones in a firefighting capacity. They're sending ground drones in basically with a big hose, partly because they can go places where a human couldn't, but also because we know Russia uses the double tap technique of fires a missile, explodes somewhere, then the first responders go in and then they use another missile to kill the first responders. I mean, we've seen that multiple times in the last few years. So if Ukraine is now using ground drones in a firefighting capacity, that is very, very sensible and that has transformed that element of it. So there's transformation happening all over the place. I wouldn't say that it has not transformed the battlefield, but it's a massive subject to say, well, what has been the impact of drones? I mean, PhDs are going to be
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
written, probably are right now by some of our listeners.
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Dominic Nichols
We get a bloody credit. No, it's a fascinating top and it's not, not one that we, that we're able to do more than kind of scratch the surface and do the occasional, occasional deep dive analysis on here, but it's fascinating what is happening.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Well, before we go to our guest, just one other story which may sound on the surface as being quite a UK focused story, but it speaks to common themes across the whole of Europe now, and we'll just cover it very briefly. This is Lord Robertson and Sir Richard Barrons, two very senior defence officials here, or voices, should I say, both of them former officials here in Britain and two of the three of the British Strategic Defence Review, which we spoke about many, many times in the last year or so. They've spoken out today to accuse the government of leaving the UK Vulnerable. What caught your eye on this pretty extraordinary outburst, Dom?
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Dominic Nichols
Yeah, I was just trying to look for the exact quotes there. But I mean, so Lord Robertson, he's. No, well, he's a big beast, right? He's a, he's a Labour Party grandee. He was a Labor. He was the Labour Defense Secretary under Tony Blair. He was then NATO Secretary General. He wrote the Strategic defence review in 1998. He's the lead or author of three of the strategic Defense Review last year. So he, you know, he knows what he's talking about and he's current. Because a lot of people will take great delight if they're trying to defend the government's record. They will say, oh, this guy's out of date. You know, what does he know? He's a Cold War warrior. He was Defense secretary, you know, 20 odd years ago. What's he got to say? Well, no, he's, he's massively current. He wrote the thing last year. He knows what he's talking about. He needs to be listened to. Which is why when he uses phrases like we are not safe, corrosive complacency. Yeah. I mean, that's a. So, so I'll come up to that on a moment, if I may. But when he says we are not safe, that, that is, that is going to land because the first duty of government is to keep the country safe. So this is, this is a senior labor figure with great defense and security pedigree saying we are not safe, this government, and obviously the ones before it. But he's saying right now, this government is not keeping it safe. That cannot be written off. You cannot write that off as, oh, that's one man's opinion. What does he know? I mean, he knows the lot. He's literally written the book. He's written two SDRs. He knows what he's talking about. That is very, very significant. And then this corrosive complacency. Sometimes phrases really land. You'll remember 2006, then John Reed, who was the Labor Home Secretary, he said that the Home Office at the time was not fit for purpose. Well, that phrase not fit for purpose has enter the Lexcon now as, as shorthand for something that's failing. Right. We use it, we use it a lot in our country, in our politics. So corrosive complacency. It's a great phrase. The alliteration works. I think this is also going to, going to last. This is going to be played back at the Labour Party for years. Be an interesting question about does the Conservative party have the moral authority to challenge their Labour Party yet on their defense record. Put that to one side for a
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
moment given they were in power for so long.
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Dominic Nichols
Well, exactly. And a lot of, a lot of the hollowing out happened on the, on their watch. But you know this phrase called corrosive complacency and he, and he was, he was aiming his guns at the treasury, basically. This, this I think is, is really going to sting. It's going to sting Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. It's going to sting Labour's record. And he knows all this, okay. He's a, he's a very smart guy. He's much more attuned to politics than I am. So he knows that he uses these words, they are kind of to be played back over the years. So he must be so frustrated and genuinely worried and probably a bit angry about what's happened to this, this country's defenses that he chooses these words knowing that we're all going to be talking about it. And I think they are going to last through time. Corrosive complacency and we are not safe. These things are going to come back to haunt Keir Starmer and Labour's defence record.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
And another quote, he says lip service is paid to the risks, the threats, the bright red signals of danger. But even a promised national conversation about defence can't even be and I think that speaks to many other countries beyond this, this one too, hence why we mention it here. This will speak to, well, wherever you're listening from around the world, let us know what kind of conversations are happening are they having happening on this, of this tone too. But let's go to our guest now, a really special one which we've been looking forward to for some time. This is Sean Wiswesser who is, will be known to many of you as a senior commentator on intelligence affairs, former senior operations officer in the CIA, including as chief of station and expert on Russian espionage tradecraft. He's the author of a new forthcoming book called Tradecraft Tactics and Dirty Russian Intelligence and Putin's Secret War, which looks at the evolution of Russia's intelligence services as well as looking at the mistakes made by the Kremlin when the full scale invasion began. We'll get into that very shortly. Sean, thank you very much for your time. The introduction of your book is by a former CIA Deputy Director of Operations who says that this will serve as an indispensable handbook for national security professionals, students of Russian government history and international affairs and readers in the general public. We've, of course, been covering these topics for years, but I wondered, as my first question to you is, what kind of things do perhaps we not talk about enough? What things are missed in relation to this that only an expert such as yourself knows? Welcome, Sean.
- [31:15]
Francis Dernley
Well, thank you. Really an honor. Francis Dahm. I've been a listener for years of the pod, right from the very origins of the invasion. You do great work, great reporting, very professional. And so it's an honor to be on the, on the podcast with you all. Yeah, the quote and the endorsement, of course, that came with our former Deputy Director, Operations Mike Solick, writing the forward to the book. I was honored. And he, of course, is distinguished himself as a, as a Cold Warrior back in the day and as a. As one of our best leaders at CIA. I'm struck by the fact that as much as Putin is constantly in the limelight and does things to bring attention to himself. Over the years, though, Francis, Russia has not garnered the attention that they always deserve. You know, if you look at our national security strategies in the United States, the unclassified versions that are put out, you know, Russia barely made the top 10 for most of the past 20 years. So I think they haven't got enough focus of our national security apparatus. They are now, of course, because again, Putin throws himself, thrusts himself back into the limelight with the largest invasion of, of another country since World War II. So what do I think is not getting enough attention? I think it's the adaptability of the Russian services, the fact that no matter that when they have setbacks, they're constantly getting more resources, more investment from the state and from their. From their great leader, Vladimir Putin, who of course, is a former, one of them, former head of the fsb, former KGB officer himself. And so we, I think we tend to underestimate their capabilities and just how formidable they are. One of the biggest misnomers out there, Francis, is when commentators in the UK or in the United States say, oh, you know, if you look at the SVR, that's the equivalent of, of your MI6 SIS, or the equivalent of CIA. Nothing further from the truth. The Russian intelligence services are vast corporations deeply embedded within the Russian state and within its economy. And we can talk about that some more. So I think it's adaptability. I think it's just how deeply embedded the corruption is within the kleptocracy of the Russian state, how much the intelligence services are part and parcel of it, and then it's how they constantly are able to adapt to new circumstances.
- [33:15]
Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Fascinating. Well, we're certainly going to come on to that shortly. I know Dom's got some questions about the exact makeup of the Russian intelligence service on a more granular level perhaps than we've covered ever before. But I think a key really get us started into the practical impacts of the Russian intelligence services would be a very simple one, which is, as you write about in the book, no Russian agency or group of agency had more significant role in the war planning than the Russian intelligence services. A small group of advisers enabled Putin to think he and Russia could take Ukraine with minimal opposition. How did they make such a huge error in your view, Sean, given how massive and expansive and impactful they are in Russia?
- [33:56]
Francis Dernley
Well, I think that they were guilty of groupthink, but at a very small level that those inner C. Levi key, those, those strongmen, advisors of Putin, you know, Putin's gotten used to being told exactly what he wants to hear. And so those inner advisors, those silvery key, I think in the inner planning circle of, for the Ukraine invasion in 2022, they told him, hey, pounding their chests, you know, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we got this. And this isn't just speculation. We know this. There's some facts that back it up. You know, Francis, I, I pay a lot of attention to the Russian blog. There is no free media any longer in Russia. There hasn't been for a long time. About the closest they come are things you read on the blogosphere upset Russian military, former generals, officers, and those of the intelligence services. What do we know? Prior to the invasion, of course, and this was reported in media in the uk, US Elsewhere, we had FSB generals and senior leaders having picked out their apartment blocks already in Kiev, what parts of town they planned to settle in. You know, they had it all. They had it all planned out down to fine detail. The FSB has particular responsibility for the failure of the Ukraine invasion and the disaster it is for Russia. Because as I outline in the book, Francis, it was the FSB fifth service, used to be the fifth department within the fsb. They're responsible for operational, analytical reporting to the president. And they had the greatest role in planning for the Ukraine invasion because for the fsb, remember, and they're, they're arrogant thinking Ukraine is a part of the near abroad. Ukraine's still a part of Russia. That's why the FSB had primacy, not the fsvr, not the Foreign Service, but the fsb. So their prognostications of grand success, a quick, short war, of course, were a giant failure and disaster for the Russian state. And for the hundreds of thousands of casualties now, well over a million total casualties and dead. Unfortunately though, I don't think they're ever going to have accountability because that history is not going to be written for probably many decades until there is any semblance of freedom in Russia.
- [35:50]
Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
There's another quote in the book that I just wanted to read out, which is that many in the Russian intelligence services also have contempt for what their services have become, for the corruption and greed of their masters and those in the Kremlin who rule over them. Could you just comment a little bit more on that and what we know about discontent in the intelligence services?
- [36:09]
Francis Dernley
Sure. So I give examples in the book of Russian intelligence officers and defectors that I worked with over the years. And one very highly motivating factor is the constant discussed with the corruption. Corruption at every level in their services and in the, in the Russian government. It's a constant obsession. It's a constant need on their part to impress their bosses and be filtering up just like a feudal system. They constantly have to be working racket schemes on the side, officially and non officially. So there is disgust within the services. But when you have corruption that leads to disaster for a country on the order of Ukraine, there's going to be a lot of really upset intelligence officers who are patriots who said, you know what, what, look at what we did to our country. Look at the hundreds of thousands of youth now wasted. Hundreds of thousands more fled the country. So I believe it's a huge motivator for our intelligence services in the West. My opinions are mine alone. I don't speak for CIA nor any other government agency. I should always say they want me to say that. I certainly hope and believe CIA is taking advantage of it, that your, your services in the UK, SIS and, and BISIs are taking advantage of it. We should be, because there certainly are a lot of discontent and upset, upset Russian intelligence officers among many others. You see little snippets of this coming out. Remember the, the critic, well known critic who now disappeared, was arrested for speaking out against the war. Formerly very pro Putin. You see it in the Russian blogosphere, these comments, when they see disasters on the front things happening. So I gotta believe, and I know from previous practice working with Russian intelligence officers over my career that that's certainly filtering down and making people think and say maybe now is the time when I should think about my family and relocating eventually to the west, giving them a future.
- [37:45]
Dominic Nichols
Sean, hi, Dom here. Thanks so much for, for joining us today. You've mentioned it a Couple of times. Can I take you back a little bit to the silaviki? And I hope I've pronounced that but the emphasis correctly there. Can you introduce us to the silaviki? Who are they? What their function is? Who can flow in and out? Or is it a fairly fixed group of individuals and how much sway they hold over Putin if they decided, look, this guy's no good, no longer good for business, you know, they got the power to, to actually, actually get rid of him.
- [38:12]
Francis Dernley
Yeah. So you can't understand Russia today. Thank you for the question, Dom. You cannot understand Russia today without understanding the security services and the Seal of E Key and how, how embedded they are, one, one with the other. So the seal of a key, the strong men or men of force in Russian, you know, just, just think about that term for a minute. Would we ever get away with a British Prime Minister or an American President saying, by the way, I'm going to rename my cabinet, they're now the men of force, they're my strong men. Just the very fact that that's a normal form of discourse in Russia. These are his sen. Senior cabinet level officials and advisors. So principally they are the head of what the Russians call the organ. They've lost. So the organs of power, the fsb. First and foremost, Alexander Bortnikov, the head of the fsb, the head of the, the svr, Sergey Narishkin, although Narishkin goes in and out with favor with, with, with Putin on the military side. You have, as Prigozhin famously shouted, remember Shaigu Grazimov. So they're, they're of course, siloviki, they are members of the inner circle. And then you have the economics seal of E Key, like Sietchen, head of Rosneft, or Achemesov, head of Rastyek. These are part of the Seal of E Key. In the, in the security services being giant corporations. They're all embedded one with another in terms of huge national interest. Hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. So to your second question, Dom. They do. There are members of the Seal of EQ that come and go, but the steadfast inner circle are the veterans of the kgb. The, that Putin knew from his old KGB days that went with him when he was working as a deputy mayor in St. Petersburg and stayed with him when he then went to the fsb. Many of them were department chiefs. Sergey Ivanov, for instance, also a former head of the fsb. When Putin was head of the fsb, Sergey Ivanov headed that fifth department. I just named that critical Fifth Service, formerly Fifth Department. Nikolai Patrushev, also a former head of the fsb, in and out of the Security Council. His son, Dmitry Patrushev, is now Deputy Prime Minister. So that's the inner circle, those KGB brother veterans that he knows. And then there's others that sort of come and go over the years. You know, I think it's Zolotov, the head of Raskvardia. He's one of the. You know, you need to have the member of Raskvardia keep them close, because if Prigozhin had ever made it to Moscow, those would have been some of the elements, among many others that would have been fighting Prigozhin on the outskirts of Moscow. So these siloviki, I use the term, they're like a Praetorian guard, but Praetorian Guard is too nice of an honorific for them. They're closer to a mafia band of thugs, a mafia family and captains. And to your final point, Dom Putin is definitely in charge. Just like Stalin back in Stalin's days. He shifts around power between and among them, so they know the boss is in charge. The boss calls the shots. I think there's absolutely zero chance of the seal of IQ ever deciding to replace him.
- [40:56]
Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
It's fascinating, Sean. There's another quote in the book. You say that the Cold War never truly ended. It was merely heated up in places like Georgia, Ukraine, and elsewhere. I just wonder if you can reflect on your time in the 1990s in the CIA and the sense of optimism or pessimism about Russia and its direction of travel and perhaps what we got wrong in the west in terms of our understanding of the country.
- [41:19]
Francis Dernley
Yeah. So I'll take a quote from. From Mike Sulek's very generous forward. You know, he talks about the fact that, you know, we veteran Cold Wars. Mike Sulek, referring to his generation of CIA officers, they knew that the Cold War wasn't over. Now, my younger generation, that, you know, I was a chief of station when Mike Sulek was our ddo, and he was one of the best we ever had had. He helped transfer that knowledge. You know, and we're fond of saying in CIA, you know, Putin is who we thought he was. You know, we were never surprised. But again, as I mentioned to one of your earlier questions, the United States and our allies, the UK prominent among them, we were engaged. I wouldn't use the word distracted, but we were engaged of 20 years of war. We had no choice. Al Qaeda attacked us. We had war in Afghanistan. A generation of CIA officers Like myself, deployed to those war zones with our military comrades. Same in the uk Stalwart supporters in NATO like the uk, Denmark, many others supported us. So we were engaged on the war on terror, and then we were engaged with Iraq. Right or wrong, we had a war in Iraq as well. And so the Russians sort of got a pass, you know, and they were out of the limelight. They weren't real people weren't paying attention. I like to point out, you know, for the entirety of my career, Francis, the United States is always on the headlines in Russia. There's a deep set insecurity among the Russian people and particularly in their intelligence services about the United States. We're the get. We're the gladny pratibnik, the main adversary. We're always featured on the news, we're always headlining. Well, think for the past 20 years, until 2022, the Ukraine invasion, how much attention was Russia really getting summed after the 2016, the meddling of the 2016 election, the meddling in their social media that they did, but they quickly disappear and then we're on to the next challenge, national security issue. Now, fortunately, I am encouraged that, that they're getting the attention they need from our national security apparatus and I believe, believe certainly in NATO and with our allies. But they got a pass for many years. So, yeah, Putin is who we thought he was. He showed his colors pretty quickly with Georgia and then Ukraine invasion in 2014. That wasn't labeled invasion. It's only now, I think that we're appreciating just how, just how wide is his scope, just what he plans to do if we don't stop him, and until we present a more credible deterrent.
- [43:21]
Dominic Nichols
Now, Sean, you say in your book, quote, no entity or group in the Russian government has undergone a more substantial transformation due to the Ukraine War. War than the Russian intelligence service. So my question is, how have they changed? And are they any better? Should we be glad? Should we take comfort that they are? They've done this substantial transformation because that, that shakes the snow dome perhaps for a few years, or have they come out of it stronger and we should be concerned?
- [43:47]
Francis Dernley
So, Dom, I think the story of the Ukraine war, you know, early and early part of the war, about the failures, the latter two years in particular, it's about adaptation. You know, I'm a World War II history buff. There's a lot of that in my book. You know, you look at the ability of the Russian people to tolerate suffering. You know, some of those, those comments you made in your news stories. Today about how they've adapted with the. Essentially, what are bribes to families for the loss of their children? You know, they pay them, and they. They pay them very well to compensate for. So Russia's constantly coming up with. With solutions, adapting to war quite well. Unfortunately for us, Dom, in, In summary, I think we have more to be concerned about with their adaptation than anything that's going to help us.
- [44:29]
Dominic Nichols
Thanks, Sean. I think you know what I mean. Final question for me, if I may. Now, I mentioned it earlier on in today's paper. Our colleague Antonio Langford's got this story about the number of air defense assets that's been that put around Putin's mansion on Lake Valdai. And the article references the, the Kremlin office that we've spoken about and also the armored trains. It's all rather ho, ho, ho. But how secure is he? How much should he fear the people around him? Is he right to be as paranoid as he clearly is?
- [45:02]
Francis Dernley
Yeah, Dom, it's a good question, one I've been asked quite a bit lately. Some of the pods that I've been on with the book. You know, there's been talk in the US oh, dictators are falling like flies. Oh, well, Maduro in Venezuela, which was a very impressive operation. I'm astounded by what our military, my intelligence community partners pulled off there. It really is astounding if you look at that. And then there's a war in Iran right now. Khomeini was killed. So the question arises, okay, what about Putin? You know, how secure is he? To your question, though, my contention and what I've written in my column and other pieces is there's no analogies to be made whatsoever, neither with Maduro nor with Khomeini. Listen, Putin is very well guarded. He's very well protected by people that are completely beholden to him. Much like that analogy to the Praetorian Guard. Again, what is valid about it? Again, I think it's too nice of a title for, for the seal of a key who all have blood on their hands. Part of having the blood on their hands is they're beholden entirely to Putin. Their wealth, their fortune, their families. And so they're fiercely loyal to him because he takes care of them and, and he, he feeds them via corruption. Look at the example of his cousin, by the way. This is, this is a Putina who's, who's the deputy head of the Deputy Minister of Defense. Look at how wealthy she's gotten in the past 10 years. Playing off the family ties she's kind of an exception to the, to the, she's not really a part of the Seal of the Key, but she's part of his personal family. You know, she's a, she's a cousin. Completely beholden. Tim garnered huge wealth for herself, her husband and her family over the past 10 years. So those are the people. And she's a deputy minister of defense now. So, so these are, these are individuals and organizations within a Russian state that are going to protect Putin, take very good care of him because he takes care of them. The paranoia that you see bleeding out with his constant relocations and multiple studios reported on armored training. Well, look at other dictators in history. Stalin did the same thing, right? Stalin had layered guards, three different layers of guards on his Dutch outside Moscow guard forces. Hitler the same way. I think this is part of the paranoia that bleeds into the bunker mentality.
- [47:03]
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Complete the course and you'll earn a certification that proves your skills in one of the fastest growing channels in media. Get started today@go.acast.com academy. Sean, thank you so much for your time today. Of course, we'll have a link in the show notes to your upcoming book. We were reading it. Both of us this morning and it's just fascinating. So really appreciate your time today. We'll come back to you in a moment as our guest for the very final thoughts. But Dom, where would you like to leave listeners first of all?
- [48:53]
Dominic Nichols
So I've been tracking the news in the last hour or so. No update From Dnipro still 5 killed, 24 injured in that strike this morning. So no further details yet yet. Hopefully no more overnight. We'll, we'll track that tomorrow. I've also seen a note that the temporary lifting of the sanction by the US on Russian oil runs out this weekend. And Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary has said that it's not going to be extended, which I thought was quite, quite interesting, obviously is a few days before the weekend. But if that is correct and the US are going to reimpose sanctions on Russian oil from this weekend, I think that it's is noteworthy.
- [49:31]
Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Yeah, definitely something we'll want to talk about. My one's very brief of course. We've been talking a lot about her Hungary this week. Whilst I was in Budapest I spent some time with U. S columnist Charles Lane, a very well known figure in the US he has also a shared interest in the American Civil War so we had some interesting conversations about that as well. But he's written a very interesting piece for Persuasion looking at the Hungarian election. Includes this quote which I thought was, was relevant to other elections and individuals in Europe at the moment, he says and around the world actually the outcome in Hungary shows that even a deeply entrenched right wing populist leader can overplay his hand and alienate the public by failing to deliver on issues that most affect daily life. Such a leader is most vulnerable to an opposition that understands the factors that motivated ordinary people to support him in the first place. Food for thought as I say and relevant to many, many people I think and scenarios at the moment. Moment. But Sean, as our guest, thank you very much for your time and it's a privilege for us to hear that you've been a listener for as long as you have. Where would you like to leave listeners today?
- [50:31]
Francis Dernley
Well, I would like to say this Francis, first of all an honor again to be on with you and Dom. You know I'd like to to mention that I believe firmly in support to Ukraine. As you know from my book. I believe in NATO, I believe in our, in our special relationship with the UK and other five five eyes allies. It's what makes the United States and our national security relationship partnerships different than what Russia has. Russia has no strategic allies. China is not a strategic ally. It's a partnership. They may call it. Oh, a partnership without any limit. So now it's not really an alliance. So I believe in our alliance. You know, there's a phrase right now being parodied in Russia constantly, a World War II phrase, no one is forgotten. Nothing is forgotten. It was very poignant after World War II because the Russians lost and the Soviet people lost 25 million of their people. But Putin uses it today for propaganda. He uses it in his propagandized version of an alleged preventative war against Ukraine, which we all know is nonsense in a different sense. I'd like to parody that phrase in terms of our allies, in terms of the UK and, and NATO, that there's a huge part of the American population, huge support within our Congress and I believe across the administration right now as well, for the alliance, for the special relationship we have with the uk, for us. No one's forgotten. Nothing's forgotten. We remember how you've stood by us in war. We remember. And we believe that the alliance is going to stand strong against Russian aggression, against the threats and challenges from China as well. So I wanted to make that final leave, that final thought that, you know, we believe in the alliance. I believe in it. I spent three decades of my. Of my life serving my country as a part of that. So thank you. Thank you for your time.
- [52:05]
Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
Thank you, Sean. Thanks, Dom. Thanks, everyone for listening. We're back, same time, same place tomorrow. Goodbye for now. Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio. Maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest. There's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine. The latest the latest was today produced by Phil Atkins. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
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David Knowles
My name is David Knowles.
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Co-host (possibly Dominic Nichols)
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Dominic Nichols
Goodbye.
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David Knowles
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