← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Russia’s deadliest day & Orban ‘gross act of disloyalty’ stalls €90bn Ukraine loan
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- [00:04]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
The telegraph.
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David Knowles
Okay, caller one wins courtside seats to tonight's game.
- [00:15]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
What?
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Dom Nichols
I won floor seats.
- [00:16]
David Knowles
You did? I've been calling for 13 months.
- [00:19]
Dom Nichols
Wait.
- [00:19]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Chris.
- [00:20]
Dom Nichols
Yes. I finally did it.
- [00:22]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
What are you gonna wear?
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Dom Nichols
Men's Wearhouse. They've got today's looks for any occasion and I need to look like a celebrity. Don't want to stick out. Exactly. They've got Chill Flex by Kenneth Cole,
- [00:30]
David Knowles
Joseph Abboud and A Taylor at every store for the perfect fit.
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Dom Nichols
Congrats. You can stop calling now.
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David Knowles
Not a chance. Hit any look for every occasion at Men's Wearhouse. Love the way you look.
- [00:42]
Dom Nichols
Acast powers the world's best podcasts. Here's the show that we recommend.
- [00:50]
Paige Desorbo
Hey guys. Welcome to Giggly Squad.
- [00:52]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
A place where we make fun of everything, but most importantly ourselves.
- [00:55]
Paige Desorbo
I'm Paige Desorbo.
- [00:56]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
I'm Hannah Berner.
- [00:57]
Paige Desorbo
Welcome to the squad.
- [00:58]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Giggly Squad started on Summer House when we were giggling during an inappropriate time.
- [01:02]
Paige Desorbo
But of course we can't be managed
- [01:05]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
so we decided to start this podcast. To continue giggling.
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Paige Desorbo
We will make fun of pop culture news. We're watching fashion trends pep talks where we give advice, mental health moments and games. And guests.
- [01:16]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Listen to Giggly Squad on ACAST or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:21]
Dom Nichols
ACAST helps creators launch, grow and monetize their podcasts everywhere. Acast.com
- [01:31]
Paige Desorbo
Foreign.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
I'm Adelie Pojman Ponte and this is Ukraine. The latest today, three days into Russia's so called spring offensive, there are virtually no advances on the ground, yet casualties continue to rise. A Ukrainian delegation is on its way to Washington to resume talks tomorrow after the latest round in the diary was postponed to by the war in Iran. Meanwhile, the European Union stalls again in providing Ukraine with financial relief.
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Dom Nichols
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
The Russia does not want fees.
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Dom Nichols
If I'm president, I will have that
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David Knowles
war settled in one day.
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Dom Nichols
24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years. Nobody's going to break us. We are strong.
- [02:44]
David Knowles
We are Ukrainians.
- [02:47]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
It's Friday the 20th of March. Four years and 24 days since the full scale invasion began. Today I'm joined by my colleague Dom Nichols, associate editor for defence. And as usual, let's go to Dom for the military updates.
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Dom Nichols
Well, thanks Adli. So yeah, day three as you say of Russia's spring offensive, if that's what it is. The most offensive thing so far being that They've lost another 1600 soldiers for just a few hundred meters of land southwest of Huliupol, that takes to nearly 5,000 the number of Russian casualties since the much trumpeted effort supposedly started on Wednesday. Now, you'll remember Ukraine's Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov said recently that he wants to increase the lethality of Ukraine's armed forces to be able to inflict 50,000 casualties on Russia per month. Well, the maths are 1600 a day or thereabouts. Like today, in a typical month, you're not far off, you're 50,000. So this is the kind of level that he wants to achieve. Whether or not this has been achieved by waves of Russians just running at the guns, as we think they are, or an increase in the number of drone strikes and the capacity to hit at depth. Depth, it's probably a combination of both, but that's what the numbers are suggesting elsewhere. Very little movement on the ground, apart from that little bit down in the southwest that I suggested, but still very violent up and down the line. So let's just pause for a moment and have a think about what's happening here, why there's been such an increase in casualty figures. Well, it's a number of things. Firstly, that loss of Starlink that we've been speaking about for a number of weeks now. Russia has not been able to get over that. They're still trying to build these WI FI bridges, so to try and try and get over the loss of the Starlink capability. But their equivalent has to see the skull. It can't put up with just any kind of foliage cover at all. Where Starlink you could operate from inside a wood line, for example, the Russian equivalent can't. So they're out in the open, more visible, get hit more easily. Plus they need elevation. That's why we see all these videos of these Russian engineers climbing towers to do all the engineering, to put up all the signals equipment, and hence they're just getting knocked out as well. So all that combined means that Russian command and control is even worse than normal. Secondly, or to illustrate the second point, I'd suggest you have a look at the Institute for the Study of War. They're reporting a Ukrainian open source intelligence analyst that says the monthly Ukrainian strikes at depth. So between 50km and 250km behind, the front line has increased from an average of about 10 up to October last year to an average of nearly 50 since then. Now that is a huge uptick. As well as that almost half of those strikes have been against radar stations, missile launchers and Other elements of Russia's air defense network. So Russian air defence is getting hammered at the moment, allowing or not allowing enabling Ukraine to get further at depth. And thirdly, importantly, Ukraine's increasingly using its own domestically produced missiles, the strike drones they're using now up to that range of about 250km, largely replacing what Himars would have done, the high mobility artillery rocket system, the US based system. So Ukraine is able to use more of its own stuff, which it can produce at scale because it's got society and industry, the defense industrial base, all working together now, less reliant on the US and other systems of course don't just mean being the us, but all of that together. This is what it looks like on the ground. Now, it takes an amount of time for all that to come together, but it means that Ukraine is now no longer having to deal just with that immediate contact battle the front line if you like, but they're able to look one bound behind the near rear as some people call it, or the short range area where the Russian ground lines of communication are. So logistic nodes, fuel dumps, troop concentrations, that kind of thing. Now they're able to hit those areas and they have not freedom of movement at all. But as I say, Russian air defense has been severely impacted, so they're able to have a go at all these things, meaning that Russia is now just having to fight to get to the fight, let alone get its people up the front and off you go lads to go and do your infiltration events, meat waves and all the rest of it, which we know aren't really achieving a huge amount. So the whole of the Russian Tactical Operational Military machine is grinding to a hole or chasing its own tail. Now, as an example of what this might look like on the ground, a Ukrainian drone unit said yesterday that they'd destroyed an entire battery of 6 Russian grads. Now these are MLRs, the multiple launch rocket systems, artillery systems. This happened down near Pokrovsk. Also, geolocated footage published Yesterday showed another two grad systems in Zaravka. That's about 16Ks from the front line, 16 kilometers southeast of Pokrov. Now the GRAD range is up to about 40 kilometers, depending what variant it is, but let's say 40 kilometers. So that's exactly where you'd expect these things to be. If they've got a range of 40km, they're probably going to be about 20ks off the front line, meaning they've got quite a bit of reach. And if Ukraine is now able, not at Will, because I think that's a bit early to make that kind of summation. But if they are able to select these targets and hit them because of the combination of all the other things that I've said before, that speaks of a much reduced Russian air defence network, a really poor and disconnected command and control network and just increases Ukraine's ability to get their things through, get these strike drones through. So I think that's where we are at the moment. It means Russian assaults are blunted where they are attempted and or Ukrainian assaults are able to get through where tactical situation allows, as we've seen down in the southwest near Huliupol where we were talking about the Starlink switch switch off and these localized counter attacks that seem to have developed into slightly larger counter offensives if you like. Although they pushed about 10ks into Russian lines, they've not gone any further than that. We don't think so. It's all very disruptive for the Russians. Plus it means that there is nobody or very few people spare for that all important reserve. You always need to have a reserve, every level of command in the military to exploit unexpected success or plug a gap if you have unexpected failure, if the enemy come piling through. So you need a reserve. So where are these people going to come from if, if they're just getting chewed up even before they get to the front line? And who's going to train the other troops that have been prepared for this so called summer offensive that's now starting to be whispered by Russia? It's almost as if they talked about this spring offensive that's not gone well in the first few days. So now it's like oh no, no, it's just, that was just the warm up act. There's now a summer offensive. Okay, fine, you're going to have a summer offensive, lads, but who's going to train the soldiers if you're too busy? And we know you're having to redeploy units in Ukraine, having to take units from the Donbass and push them into the southwest. So Russia having a bit of a time of it at the moment, tactically, they're on the back foot. They are responding and reacting to Ukrainian military activity, which is not where you want to be as a military force. You want to be owning the momentum, you want to be dictating events on the ground. That is absolutely not happening for the reasons we've just described.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
Is that then why the so called spring offensive is moving so slowly or barely at all then?
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Dom Nichols
Yeah, I think so. I Think it's a combination of all those factors. I mean, war is hard. The enemy always gets a vote. And we know Russia isn't the best trained, best led, best equipped army anywhere, no matter what they, what they might claim. And I think this new lay down of military force that Ukraine is adopting, going for that near rear, the 50 to 200 kilometer sort of depth that is meaning that the troops at the front just are largely irrelevant. The Russian troops, these infiltration events, the meat waves and what have you, I mean, they're not doing meat waves anymore because we haven't got the numbers. But these infiltration adventures aren't doing anything and they are quite easily mopped up. So Russia's struggling to, to get to the start line of the fight, let alone taking the fight to Ukraine.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
Push forward. Okay.
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Dom Nichols
Now, across the rest of the country yesterday, 133 of 156 drones were shot down. It still meant that seven people were killed, 32 injured. Across the country. Three people were killed in Sumy Oblast, another three in Zaporizhzhia, both in the city itself and in the wider region. In Donetsk Oblast, a Russian drone attacked an evacuation vehicle operated by the Priliska Humanitarian mission this morning. One person was killed there and others injured. Russia also conducted a drone attack on the port of Chonomorsk. That's down, it's just to the southwest of Odessa city. That happened last night. Air raid sirens first activated in the early hours of yesterday morning and remained active pretty much for 24 hours now, hombre Intelligence, the Global Maritime Risk Management Agency, they said they've seen video footage reportedly of the attack that showed explosions in the port area. Regional authorities down there said that two merchant vessels, a Palau flagged bulk carrier and a Barbados flagged grain vessel, plus other equipment inside the port had been damaged as a result of that attack and two people were injured there. Just finally for me, Kremlin officials are reportedly considering military means to escort Russian ships. This has been talked about for many, many months. But now, Russ presidential aide and former Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev told Russian state media and the business outlet commandant that Russia is considering installing what he called special protective equipment on ships, including armed fire groups, he says to defend them. Likely defense from drone strikes. He says it might also include Russian naval vessels to escort merchant ship in convoys. Now, very nimbly, because they didn't actually name the US President. Patrichev said an unprecedented campaign has truly been launched against the fleet transporting cargo from Russian ports. Some countries have simply gotten carried away in their hunt for tankers, bulk carriers and container ships. Now there's been recent European action, of course, to interdict the so called shadow fleet, but I think that was a very obvious criticism of Donald Trump's policy. I find it very interesting that Russian officials seem now to be more confident to make these kind of statements that have been obviously pointed against Trump. They have more confidence to ignore Trump and basically don't care what his reaction will be. So it will be interesting to see if he responds to those kind of comments at all. I don't think he will, bearing in mind that he's currently looking at the Gulf. But I mean, Russian officials now just not even trying to hide their criticism and scorn for Donald Trump. That's us up to date. Adli.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
Thanks, Dom. Well, I was going to start with tomorrow's news, but as I was writing these updates, there was something about the Russian shadow fleet because France seized an oil tanker in the Mediterranean sailing under a Mozambique flag from Murmansk that may be part of Russia's shadow fleet. So I'm sure we'll know more in due time. It came right as we were wrapping up. These updates also just came through. Ilya Rameslow that you talked about with Francis yesterday, the Russian blogger that we talked about at length for his very open and critical telegram post accusing Vladimir Putin of being a war criminal has been sectioned to a psychiatric hospital. So no window that just came through as we walked into the studio.
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Dom Nichols
It was only a matter of time, I suppose. Yeah, we wonder what was going on there. I mean they're trying to hide it.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
They now to tomorrow's news then, as the Ukrainian delegation is heading to the US for another round of talks with American representatives on the Ukrainian side. The delegation include Rustem Umarov, the former Ukrainian minister of Defense, and Budanov, the head of office of the President. No details on the American side yet as I was writing these updates. That's yet another meeting you'll tell me and you'll remember that the last trilateral talks took place about a month ago in Geneva. So is this taking anyone anywhere? Well, there are two things that are worth noting here. It's a welcome sign. Several weeks into the war with Iran, which has diverted eyes and resources away from Ukraine, especially in the US after the talks in Geneva a month ago, there was a follow up meeting that was scheduled in Abu Dhabi for March 5 which ended up being canceled because of the war. Zelenskyy has worried many times over the last few weeks about the impact of the war in Iran and what it could have for Ukraine. That's a sentiment that he's acknowledged again about tomorrow's meeting. While remaining optimistic. He said there has been a pause in the talk and it is time to resume them. We are doing everything to ensure that the negotiations are genuinely substantive. Our priority is to do everything possible to create the conditions for a dignified peace. The second point I'd like to make is that at the moment it's unclear whether Russia will be present at the talk at all. Now, is that a good or a bad thing? Well, surely nothing can come out of a meeting where there is only one of the parties involved. But realistically, considering Russia's hypocritical approach to these talks since the very beginning, was it ever likely to move the needle forward? I would argue that in the constant battle for influence over the US Between Kyiv and Moscow, the more Kyiv can have the Americans attention span, the better, especially when times are as unstable as they are right now. Yesterday the Kremlin said that the trilateral talks were on situational pause because of the war in Iran, while Russian newspaper Izvetsia hoped that the war in the Middle east could push Kyiv towards compromise. But in Kyiv, meanwhile, President Zelenskyy said that it was time to end the pause and that Washington was sending signals that it was ready to continue negotiations. So I'm not sure where that headline came from. That's what takes us to what's happening in Washington tomorrow. We'll follow up on Monday. Next up is, it seems, the final blow to the 90 billion euros loan promised by the European Union in December after it failed to unlock the 185 billion worth of Russian frozen assets for Ukraine. We've talked about that this week already. The guilty party is Hungary's Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, who has changed his mind from his previously stated position in December over the ongoing dispute about the Druzhba pipeline and the accusations that Ukraine is being slow on repairing it. In the background of Orban's decision is the upcoming election in a couple of weeks time in Hungary, where Orban is campaigning on a strong anti Ukraine agenda, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, also refused to sign the commission statement. Being similarly affected by the pipeline which brings Russian oil to both countries, Fico has said that there was now a state of emergency in the country's oil sector. Now both Hungary and Slovakia have blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. As we know here, they've been vetoing what the European Union has tried to implement in favor of Ukraine for four years now. The European leaders and all other dignitaries have not held back on their anger over the U turn. German Chancellor Merz has called it a gross act of disloyalty. Very strong words here, saying it will leave deep marks, while Caja Callis said that Orban was not acting in good faith. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, however, promised that the EU will deliver one way or another. Now, in the events that the funds couldn't be delivered to Ukraine, Ukraine has no good option to replace those funds. The Kyiv Independent does a deep dive into that and the reasons why it has no good option, which I'll link to in the show notes. Now to wrap up, I want to bring to your attention two other deep dives from the Kyiv Independent that I thought were particularly noteworthy. The first one is about the US relationship with Belarus. In early February, Russia's foreign intelligence service, the svr, released a report that barely made headlines. The report has claimed that Western governments were attempting to weaken the alliance between Minsk and Moscow and ultimately staging political change in Belarus by building a Belarusian opposition movement. Now, in and of itself, that isn't particularly noteworthy as Russia often accuses the west of destabilization. But the Keevendi what stood out this time was something subtler. The SVR conspicuously avoided naming the main actor supposedly behind the operation. The omission raised an obvious why the sudden caution? The answer may lie in Washington. Why's that? Well, the person at the centre of this potential rapprochement, I'm told it's pronounced in English, is a rather low profile diplomat, John Cole, the US special envoy for Belar. He's a former lawyer and he's been involved in the release of at least 250 people from Belarusian prisons, including six US citizens. While yesterday Kohl was in Minsk to meet with Lukashenko, leading to another 250 prisoners being pardoned, as well as opening the conversation on a potential visit to Washington and bilateral agreements. Kohl has also been building ties to the Belarusian opposition. Now the Kyiv Independent reveals that the first call he made when he took his post was with Belarusian opposition opposition leader living in exile Svyatlana Tsikanouskaya. Her team has praised President Trump's effort to meet with them, as well as singling out that Belarus is a separate track in U.S. foreign policy. There's more in the Indies article, especially on sanctions. It's really interesting and I'll link to that in the show notes as usual. Now the second article is an interview with Iran's envoy to Ukraine, which and I'm not spoiling anything here because that's in the title of the article is wild. Let's go back. In 2022, Ukraine expelled the Iran ambassador for obvious reasons. Now Iran is being represented with a special envoy. His name is Shahriar Amuzeghah and he makes the following that his country is, I quote, neutral in the conflict and that there was propaganda against Iran. Now I've seen the Shaheed drones myself and so have you, Dom. But the article also reminds us that in November 2022 Ukrainian officials said Iranian military instructors were present in Russian occupied Crimea to train Russian forces to operate The Iranian designed Shahid 136 drones. What about those drones then? Well, according to him, they were given to Russia before the beginning of the invasion and Russia has since copied them, which you know is partly true, but there are also records of agreements between Russia and Iranian drone companies about nine months into the full scale invasion. The envoy also said that Iran had opposed the conflict since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. And despite this, Amuzega confirmed that Iran's relationship with Russia was perfectly normal as it is with all of its neighbors, he said putting Russia in the same category as Turkey or Pakistan, for example. Another claim that he makes in the interview is that Iran had been ready to mediate between Russia and Ukraine since the very beginning but had been ignored. There's load more in that interview. It's really fascinating in particular on the rights of women or on the repression of protests. You know where to find the link and that's it for me today. Dom, any thoughts?
- [21:50]
Dom Nichols
I find it absolutely staggering. So this guy is saying that Iran's relationship with Russia is just the same as his relationship with Turkey. So that'd be Turkey that Iran's just fired. 3. But no, sorry, let's be fair. Three ballistic missiles had to be shot down that were flying through Turkish airspace. Those ballistic missiles that came from Iran. So he says that relationship one of just sort of playful little I'm going to chuck a few ballistic missiles your way. Is this relationship that Iran has with Russia, I've said it before, it's the satirists I feel sorry for because they got no material. Just the news itself is laughable enough. We expose. I mean does he say these things and maybe he's used to a compliant media but he just thinks what we're just going to trot off and believe that and not question. Absolutely staggering.
- [22:36]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
I mean the quotes in that article throughout from the special envoy to Ukraine are just absolutely crazy. The level of bad faith when it comes to the war in Ukraine and Iran's position are just absolutely incredible. Well, that baffling interview from the Kyiv Independent about the Iranian special envoy to Ukraine leads us very nicely into our pre recorded interview for today because earlier this week our sister podcast Iran the Latest talked to Dr. Jack Watling of the think tank RUSI, predominantly about the Middle east, but also about its implications for Russia and Ukraine. Obviously you should check out the entire interview on Iran the latest, but we thought we would share a few relevant points that he made. In Jack's book Statecraft, he compares the Strait of Hormuz to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the Black Sea where Russia and Ukraine were in a position to attack each other's commercial shipping, but chose to largely leave it alone as the cost was way too high. Well, he points out that for years in the Strait of Hormuz there had been deterrents working on both sides. On the one hand, the Iranians could see the benefit of applying pressure there, but they also knew that if they went too far they would draw a massive response. And their opponents, the west, felt vulnerable, but also didn't really want to bear the costs of confronting them or letting things spiral into a conflict. Roland asked him what changed his mind.
- [24:01]
David Knowles
Now the Iranians want to re establish deterrence and deterrence can be, or compellence can be a very, very effective means of raising the cost on the other side so that they start to conform in their behavior to what you would like. We've seen this with the Houthis last year where the United States was becoming increasingly frustrated at the Houthis interdicting shipping in the Red Sea and the US tried to stop them being able to do it by striking launches and so on. The UK participated in some of strikes and it didn't work because we were not able to strike all of the potential launch sites. There were just too many. And so the US switched tactics and started to kill pretty senior Houthis. And in that context, the Houthis were largely engaging in a strategic communications campaign in the Red Sea. And so they did a couple of final strikes to show that they were still able to do, but they broadly speaking, desisted on the basis that the pain they were incurring was too great. Now you can see a similar logic potentially arising here where the US essentially says, well, we're not able to completely eliminate the threat in the Strait of Hormuz, even if we can bring it down to a lower level, but we're now going to impose costs elsewhere. On Iran, such that the Iranians feel that this situation shouldn't continue and both sides now want a resolution. And then you can have conditions whereby both sides essentially have an orchestrated withdrawal. But the problem there is that the US And Israel have messaged clearly to the Iranian regime that this is existential. And under those conditions, it's very, very different, difficult to compel someone to de escalate. So, and then we have the issue of spoilers, the fact that Israeli interests are not the same as US interests and their objectives are different. The IRGC has disaggregated command and control, and a lot of its personnel are going to want to kill Americans for the purposes of revenge, let alone political calculations. And so how you make that diplomatic effort actually align is very delicate. And it requires channels, it requires the ability to talk to each other while you're fighting. You know, the two things go in parallel. Of course, the challenge there is that the Israelis have said they will kill anyone who replaces Khamenei and therefore and strike other leaderships, people in leadership positions. And so you end up with the question of how do you maintain negotiations while a party in the conflict is also trying to eliminate potential negotiators.
- [26:51]
Dom Nichols
Now, I think Jack's point there about Israel and the United States having differing objectives is the key point because Trump, Hegseth, and Rubio have never actually properly spelt out what their objectives are. They've said a whole load of different objectives at different times and said it's perfectly clear. It says, and it's perfectly clear, it's that. But they've never actually said what they are. And in a way that's okay because it means that Donald Trump can declare victory whenever he likes. I think he's already declared it about four times. But anyway, he could say, you can declare victory and find an off ramp and we all go, yeah, we know what's really going on here. But fine, fine. We want the oil price to come back down. It's different with Israel, okay, Because their objective is clear regime change. They see this as the chance to remove an existential threat to their country. So they are all in. They've been very, very clear, which is good for clarity, but it's quite worrying because it's absolutely clear what they want. They want to completely wipe out the Iranian regime. And they've finally, in their view, found a US President that is going to along with that. They've been looking for such a person for a long time. They seem to have found it in Donald Trump. So they're very Happy that Trump has allowed them, slash, backed them up, supported them in this effort. So that is very concerning. Now, a secondary but no less important question is what this attack on Iran means for the post second World War global security architecture, what it means about the existing rules and norms of behavior and when you can go to war and when you can't, etc. Etc. Here's what Jack had to say on that.
- [28:18]
David Knowles
That. So I think, firstly, the US has not even really attempted to offer a Casa Speli, right. An explanation of why they've conducted this attack. And so we are looking at a situation in which we have two now permanent members of the Security Council who are engaging in wars of aggression, essentially without feeling the need to have a legal basis in which they're doing that. At that point, we can say that the international system is pretty fundamentally challenged. And so the barriers, in terms of normative barriers for states using armed force to solve their or impose their problems is coming down. That's one thing I think we just have to acknowledge up front. Then we get to the operational question, which is, as you say, the kind of balance of power in different theaters. And the US Is deeply concerned about the prospects of China realizing what has been the direction to the People's Liberation army from the Chinese leadership, that they have to be prepared to forcibly reincorporate Taiwan into Chinese control by 2027. That doesn't mean that they are expected to decide to do it in 2027. It means that they are ordered to be ready to do it. And we're seeing them take steps that suggest they are implementing those instructions, getting ready. Now, if we work on that timeline, what the US really fears, putting aside the direct balance of power between the US And China, is global, simultaneous, protracted conflict where the US Is not only having to deal with China, but also having to deal with Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, etc. Etc. And so in that context, I think there is a logic that we're observing in US Behavior whereby they are trying to write down those threats to desynchronize them essentially from that Chinese timeline, eliminating Iranian striking power, removing hostile leadership in Venezuela, and developing this kind of coercive relationship. We will see what happens with Cuba, Trump has said, and that he wants to see changes there as well. And of course, in Russia, the US because of Russia's nuclear deterrent, can't impose a comparable approach. And so the US Are trying to build every single opportunity for the Russians to sit out some kind of future US Chinese confrontation, essentially sit on the sidelines, and sell to both sides, which is why, or it's partly why the US is so cautious about pushing back on Russia in any way at the moment. Now that might be a kind of overall logic. People get very focused on stockpiles. So the expenditure of munitions and as you've said, the redeployment of capability into the Middle East. I think the US has kind of turned a corner in their thinking on this. Previously it was all about stockpiles. But if the logic is that, that do we run out in two weeks or one, it fundamentally doesn't change the outcome of a major conflict. Production capacity is fundamental to deterrence. And if the US can expand production capacity, then the expenditure of munitions is much less of a problem. If they can't expand production capacity for weapon systems, then they know that they have a deterrence problem with China anyway. And so I think that's why you're seeing in the US this emphasis on increasing stockpiles. But then we have the question of what does this look like to the US's adversaries or competitors? Russia conducted some assessments shortly after their full scale invasion of Ukraine, in which they determined that it would be extremely helpful if several eventualities happened in the course of the war. One of them was a outbreak between Israel and Palestine. One of them was the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and a third was a Taiwan crisis. There were others as well. But that's not to say that the Russians caused this or, you know, were behind it in any way. But they, they absolutely want to see this protract. And they do see this as very much in their favor. It's regenerating their cash reserves through oil sales. It's seeing sanctions lifted, and it's distracting a lot of political capacity that could otherwise be focused on supporting Ukraine and how China looks at it is not yet clear. But it's worth noting that China was already building up massive stockpiles of oil and other resources. And so I suspect this will confirm China in its view that it does have a vulnerability in the number of chokepoints, not just the Straits of Hormuz, that it relies on to get oil. And it will therefore start to double down on its counteractions to make sure that it is not vulnerable to that kind of disruption.
- [33:34]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So there was a report towards the end of last week from AFP that they've been tracking via satellite photos the very bizarre movements of Chinese fishing boats. Between 1,000 and 2,000 fishing boats have been holding positions as close as 500 meters to each other for about 30 hours in near gale force winds, and then suddenly scattering, forming these sorts of very straight lines that you just would not normally get. They did this once in December and then they did it all again in January, and then they did it again in March. So have you seen that, Tom?
- [34:08]
Dom Nichols
Yeah, I saw that. I mean, it was bizarre. It was like one of these perfectly choreographed drone swarms that we see, albeit this happened on the sea. But it was almost as if China was saying, look, even our fishing fleet can be corralled into providing a disciplined military function should we so wish. It was very organized, very disciplined. I think that was the message they were trying to send. Interestingly, Jack drew a parallel with that, with the old Soviet days. Have a listen to this.
- [34:35]
David Knowles
So I think we have to acknowledge that as with the Soviet Union, it used to be the case there also. But very much in China, the Chinese fishing fleet is not independent of the state. Under Chinese law, if you are a Chinese company or entity, you are obligated to make yourself useful to the state. And many of these vessels have radio links, the specifications of which are determined by the Chinese military so that they can be turned into sensor networks, essentially. And we are seeing the increasing sort of experimentation and practical refinement of drills for incorporating civil structures into military campaigning by the pla. So this is in cooperation with the Chinese People's Liberation Coast Guard and with also the maritime militia who use old Coast Guard vessels, but they're still an armed component of the force. And so, yeah, this is a phenomenon that's not only happening with fishing vessels, it's also happening with quite a lot of companies that run foreign infrastructure, for example, and other means. And essentially this is the state making sure that if it ends up in a conflict, it has all of the levers in place and people understand what their functions and responsibilities are relative to a campaign plan, which is concerned learning. Because this is kind of what I was saying that, that the, the Chinese are genuinely implementing the guidance they've been given by Xi Jinping to be ready. What we have to hope is that China can be deterred from stepping over into implementation. And that is what is very much occupying the thinking in Washington or parts of Washington at the moment. But the coherence of US Policy doesn't lend itself to clear communication would probably be my. My concern.
- [36:50]
Dom Nichols
So in his book, Jack is wrestling with the modern world. An angry, bitter, revanchist Russia, resurgent China, the west that seems to be in decline, United States that is. Well, who knows where the United States is right now. So, you know, it was trying to come to terms with what the new world disorder looks like right now. I mean, plot spoiler. He didn't offer a ray of sunshine about his views for the future and where this is all going. But listen, here's. This is what he had to say.
- [37:17]
David Knowles
So I think, firstly, it's about recognizing that we're not in a world where there is a stable state of continuity. And then intermittent crises emerge that we have to respond to. You know, there are floods, there is a civil war that breaks out here, there's a humanitarian crisis there, there. Instead, we are dealing with adversaries who are powerful state actors that can intervene in ways that fundamentally realign the international system. And actually, when it comes to the U.S. we have allies who are doing the same thing in their own interests. And so the question then is, how do you pursue a consistent understanding of your own interests in a very dynamic environment? And I think that requires a much more opportunistic policy. It requires much more discipline in identifying what our core interests actually are. And as I said before, it requires making decisions early. Right. But there is an element to that which is difficult within our political system, because let's say we were to completely rejig the deployment route of the British military in order to move it somewhere to deter something. Something. Well, if we succeeded in deterring it, nothing would happen, Right? Because the other side would decide not to act. And at the point where the other side is thinking about doing it or not making that judgment and therefore is susceptible to messaging and deterrence, you're probably acting not when there is a really obvious imminent invasion, but quite a bit beforehand. And so the risk there is that you have to spend a lot of resources and the public is asking, well, or what is that? Just waste.
- [39:01]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So make sure you go and listen to the entire interview. It's on our sister podcast, Iran, the latest wherever you listen to your podcasts.
- [39:22]
Paige Desorbo
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- [40:16]
Dom Nichols
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- [40:57]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Now let's go to final thoughts. I'll start We've talked about the responses on the Oscar win of Mr. Nobody against Putin. I think we've talked about the international community's response. We've talked about Russia's response, but I'd like to mention the Ukrainian response because I don't think we've touched upon that and it, you know, rightfully so. I think they have been quite exasperated that a film portraying Russian passivity has won. They have associated this film, winning with the international community sort of applauding very mild resistance to Putin's regime. And the Kevin Appendant wrote a long opinion about this, which I'll quote because I thought it was very interesting, but it's kind of been popping around on social media everywhere. This week they said that not every story about Russian propaganda demonstrates its power. Some merely highlight the self dramatization of the Russian people and their real position that in their own country there are nobodies and will not ever try to change that. So the audience is left with a distorted sense of agency shaped by the denial of collective responsibility. It removes the need to speak about the collective responsibility of the Russian nation and reparations owed to Ukrainian I the person writing the article can't shake the impression that the film indulges in fantillism of ordinary Russians. Other voices I've seen on social media point to the sort of collective victimhood of the Russian people. They're collectively victimized by Putin and by the elite in power rather than playing a real role in this war and the way way Russia has been shaped over the last 20 years. And the second point of exasperation is that in the Shortlist to the Oscar was this particular Russian film and not the Ukrainian 2000 meter to Endrivka, directed by Oscar winner Mstislav Chernov, whom I interviewed last July when the film was released. It's an intense and brave and heart wrenching film filmed embedded with the unit on the front line. It's really worth seeing. The film is very raw, very moving and very much tells you line in Ukraine looks like. And the interview with Mitzlav last July was really interesting, so I really encourage you to check it out. I will link to that in the show notes. And I have a second final thought for today which is something slightly nicer to end on. During my trip to Ukraine I was actually very lucky because it was very quiet. I didn't have to go into the shelter many nights and when I did as often, and we've come across this many times, Dom, is that we're often the only ones in the shelter because the Ukrainians don't really bother going anymore. Otherwise they'd spend spend all of their nights there. But when I was in Trekasi and we mentioned this in the podcast in one of my postcards, there was a very long and very heavy drone raid. There was about 20 to 25 drones flying over, well, coming to Trekasi and we didn't know whether they were aiming at Trekasi or flying over. So I went to the shelter and I was the only one. So throughout the night I was scrolling on telegram to see what the channels were saying about the attacks. But there was also something very, very lovely in there, which is that Ukrainians, as we've discussed so many times on podcast, cope with a lot of humor to this war and what's happening to them. There was one telegram channel in particular that posted a message that really made me smile. It said, on the eve of a possible sleepless night, it is recommended to consume 10 doses of evening anti stress. Now I don't really know what that was, so I was quite intrigued. The doses of evening anti stress were, was pictures of, I quote, sky without anxiety. And they were calling people following the telegram channels to send the best pictures of skies without drones, without missiles. Just beautiful pictures of blue skies, sunsets, sunrise, which led to a whole collection of beautiful pictures in the middle of the night. So you know, when the world is dark, humor does a lot, beauty does a lot, whether it's natural or artistic. And I think that's really worth remembering.
- [45:01]
Dom Nichols
Yes. And I think for me the anti drone stress tablets come in 568 milliliter form. But that's just me.
- [45:09]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Can you get that in the middle of the night in the shelter? Dumb.
- [45:12]
Dom Nichols
You can. Before you rush downstairs. Yeah. My final thought, I'm going to point folks to an article in United 24 is about this large humanitarian aid convoy that's currently on its way from Tajikistan to Iran. It's raised a number of questions, questions about his cargo and the backdrop is the any possible military help that Tajikistan is offering Iran in the war against US and Israel. So we'll link to this in the episode notes. The article is called 110 truck humanitarian convoy from Central Asia Heads to Iran but what's Inside Now Tajikistan's Ministry of Foreign affairs said on Wednesday this shipment 110 trucks, contains nearly 4,000 tons of cargo, medical supplies, food, hygiene, hygiene products, tents, construction materials. But there's a huge lack of transparency. There's no, there's no way of backing that up. It's just what, just what they've said. And the fact is that Iran built a drone production facility in Tajikistan in May 2022. And there's, you know, they're quite deep military ties. So questions are being asked about what's in the trucks. Tajikistan, they're going to drive through Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and they've got quite a, quite a long way to go. I'm sure some enterprising youth would be able to break in the back and have a look and see if it's full of, full of medical supplies or drones. But anyway, I'm not, I'm not advocating anyone breaking the law, but I'm just very interested to see what was, what was in these trucks. Anyway, we'll link to that in the episode notes.
- [46:32]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Well, thanks Dom. Thanks everyone and see you all next week.
- [46:36]
Dom Nichols
Thanks everybody.
- [46:42]
Narrator
Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David no Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest there's a link in the description. You can also sign up to the Ukraine the Latest Newsletter Each week we answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes insights plus diagrams of the front line lines and weaponry to complement our reporting. It's free for everyone including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the episode description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepop podelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was Today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [48:22]
David Knowles
My name is David Knowles.
- [48:23]
Dom Nichols
Thank you all for listening. Goodbye.
- [48:29]
Adelie Pojman Ponte
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Dom Nichols
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
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Dom Nichols
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Dom Nichols
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