Russia's secret submarine operation in British waters & does the Kremlin no longer fear Donald Trump?

Summary

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Ukraine: The Latest

Episode: Russia's secret submarine operation in British waters & does the Kremlin no longer fear Donald Trump?
Date: April 9, 2026 | Host: Dom Nicholls | Guest: James Kilner (Russia expert)

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Overview

This episode explores recent Russian maritime aggression near the UK, the effectiveness of Ukrainian military operations targeting Russian logistics, covert Kremlin strategy and propaganda, questions about potential shifts in Russian attitudes toward Donald Trump, and updates on domestic Russian political and economic turbulence. The discussion integrates battlefield reporting, geopolitical analysis, and glimpses into the Kremlin mindset, culminating in reflections on the risks facing Russia both internally and externally.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Battlefield Situation and Ukrainian Military Operations

• Drone Superiority and Battlefield Stalemate (03:31)

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly hold a slight numerical edge in drone warfare, with 1.3 Ukrainian strike drones for every Russian.
  • Some 32% of Ukrainian drones are resistant to Russian electronic warfare, versus 24% for Russia.
  • “That is probably why there is so little movement on the ground.” (Dom Nicholls, 04:01)
  • Ukraine's continued strikes have prevented Russia from launching mass drone assaults and forced staggered deployments.

• Strikes Near Kerch Bridge – Isolation of Crimea (04:31)

  • Ukrainian intelligence claims to have put Russia’s last remaining railway ferry in the Kerch Strait (the Slavianin) out of action, following systematic targeting of Russian ferries and the bridge itself.
  • If verified, this severely hampers Russian supply lines to occupied Crimea, leaving only riskier options.
  • “Russia now faces a choice between risking heavier loads on the structurally weakened Kerch Bridge or rerouting military logistics through... Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia... exposing the trains to Ukraine's strike drones.” (Dom Nicholls, 05:15)

• Civilian and Cultural Impacts

  • Massive drone and missile strikes continue across Ukraine, with casualties and destruction, including the loss of a historic estate in the Kharkiv region.

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2. Russia’s Shadow Fleet and Submarine Sabotage Threats

• Russian Shadow Fleet Operations in the English Channel (07:43)

  • Russian tankers, under warship escort, transited the Channel without interception, despite UK authorization to board suspicious vessels.
  • The only British vessel deployed was a civilian-crewed RFA logistical ship, underscoring possible gaps in response capability.
  • France announces tougher penalties for noncompliant ships, but the UK’s response is less decisive.
  • “[Shadow Fleet] vessels... were chaperoned by a Russian warship, the frigate Admiral Grigorovich. Not ideal. However, the Royal Navy... can do some pretty impressive stuff when they have to.” (Dom Nicholls, 09:00)

• Secret Russian Submarine Operation Detected (10:05)

  • UK authorities monitored a Kremlin nuclear submarine and two spy vessels in North Sea waters for a month; they threatened undersea energy and data cables.
  • British warships used sonar buoys to deter the submarines.
  • “To President Putin, I say: we see you, we see your activity... any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.” (Defence Secretary John Healey, paraphrased by Dom Nicholls, 11:01)

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3. Ukrainian Money Laundering Allegations in Hungary

• Hungarian authorities allege a major Ukrainian money laundering scheme four days ahead of a contentious election. Freshly printed euros/dollars, videos of purported corruption, and disputed evidence are central claims.
• Ukraine's Oshad bank denies allegations, asserting information was doctored.
• The politics of timing raise suspicions about election interference.

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4. The Kremlin and Trump: New Mockery or Strategic Shift?

• Apparent Change in Russian State Media Tone Toward Trump (15:55)

  • Recent Russian press is openly mocking Trump following perceived US/Trump missteps, particularly Iran policy.
  • “I have a feeling that Russia no longer seems to fear Trump... I thought they were quite pointed there, quite derisory of Trump. What do you take from those comments?” (Dom Nicholls, 15:55)
  • James Kilner: “Very florid, lurid writing. That's my first comment. They're not holding back, are they?”

• Behind Kremlin Calculations (16:12)

  • Historically, Trump was promoted as an ‘asset and ally’ in Russian propaganda, but this has shifted to derision.
  • The change is read as an attempt to exploit US weakness and undermine American support for Ukraine.
  • China remains Russia's real ally, with the Kremlin displaying loyalty to Beijing.
  • “What the Kremlin is doing is showing its frailty, its loyalty to Beijing... by really acting as sort of a lap dog.” (James Kilner, 17:39)

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5. Russian Domestic & Geopolitical Tensions

• Russian Media Mocking Britain and NATO Divisions (18:13)

  • Russian press revels in NATO infighting and highlighting UK challenges tracking Russian vessels.

• Armenia’s Defiance in Moscow – “Trolling” Putin (18:37, 21:37)

  • Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, increasingly pro-EU, challenged Putin to his face in Moscow.
  • Video shows Pashinyan “almost laughing” at Putin, who appeared “like a petulant teenager being told off.” (James Kilner, 18:52)
  • Armenia is a new focus of EU–Russia hearts-and-minds competition, with parliamentary elections imminent.
  • “For the Prime Minister of Armenia... to explain himself basically, and then give it back, is really quite remarkable. I think Putin was completely caught off guard.” (James Kilner, 22:00)

• Russian Internet and Telegram Ban (23:55)

  • Attempts to ban Telegram and VPNs fuel public irritation, especially in Moscow and St Petersburg.
  • Drop in Putin’s popularity even in pro-Kremlin polls.
  • Pro-war “Z bloggers” are furious, as they depend on Telegram for reach and income—highlighting growing elite discontent.
  • Notably, top officials like Medvedev and Kadyrov keep using Telegram, deepening public resentment: “One rule for us, another rule for others.” (James Kilner, 25:54)

• Economic Strain and Food Shortages (26:13)

  • Price spikes in staple goods (e.g., first cucumbers, now sugar); signs of impending recession with up to a 2% GDP contraction, VAT increase to fund the war, and high inflation (~20%).
  • “Sugar has started spiking. So the border point here is that even pro-Kremlin newspapers are now talking about a recession in Russia.” (James Kilner, 27:06)
  • Russian Railways selling skyscrapers to cover debt, symptomatic of wider financial malaise.
  • “Consumer spending has really collapsed... No one's buying any more clothes. They're just mending their own.” (James Kilner, 28:13)
  • War costs soak up any revenues from higher oil prices, leaving average Russians no better off.

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6. May 9th Victory Day Parade: Fears and Propaganda Dilemmas

• Parade Disrupted by Ukrainian Missile Threat (30:35)
  • Possible cancellation or scaling back of Russia's flagship parade, with flyovers already canceled—blamed on weather, but likely due to fear of Ukrainian long-range missiles (Flamingo) and drones.
  • "We are having a progressively pressured May 9th parade. This is the Kremlin's main propaganda day... it would be a huge embarrassment to the Kremlin if they did have to cancel it." (James Kilner, 32:41)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Russian Attitudes to Trump:
  • “They [the Kremlin] saw him as an asset and an ally... Now with this very obvious change in tact is a decision by the Kremlin... they decided this is the way they can undermine US support for Ukraine.” (James Kilner, 16:12)
• On Pashinyan Humiliating Putin:
  • “Pashinyan... responded with this trolling of Putin... Pashinyan’s almost grinning, he’s almost laughing at Putin... and Putin is just looking at his feet. He looks like a petulant teenager being told off.” (James Kilner, 18:52)
• On Impacts of Telegram Ban:
  • “Even pro-Kremlin pollsters are saying this. My sense is that they overhype Putin's popularity anyway, but they have still recorded an absolute drop...” (James Kilner, 25:54)
• On Russian Economy Hardship:
  • “There’s always one staple food product which seems to be spiking in price... recently, sugar has started spiking.” (James Kilner, 26:13)
• On Kremlin-NATO Relations Post-Trump Meeting:
  • “Kremlin is desperate for NATO to split. Nothing could be better for Putin and the Kremlin... we are in very dangerous times.” (James Kilner, 38:00)
• On Dagestan Floods and Russian State Capacity:
  • “If central government, the Kremlin, can't show itself to be effective in Dagestan, it could be a source of more meaningful protests against the Kremlin.” (James Kilner, 39:30)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Drone Superiority and Battlefield Stagnation: 03:31–05:00
• Kerch Strait Ferry Strike and Crimea Isolation: 05:00–07:10
• Russian Shadow Fleet in English Channel: 07:43–10:05
• Secret Russian Submarine Detected: 10:05–11:06
• Hungarian-Ukrainian Money Laundering Allegations: 11:06–12:50
• Russian Media Mock Trump: 15:55–17:39
• Armenia’s Pashinyan Trolling Putin: 18:37–22:00
• Russian Domestic Dissent: Telegram Ban: 23:55–26:13
• Russian Economic Crisis: 26:13–30:35
• Victory Day Parade Fears: 30:35–32:41
• Discussion on Rutte–Trump Meeting & Kremlin Hope for NATO Split: 36:08–38:00
• Dagestan Floods as Kremlin Weakness Exposure: 39:30–40:24

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Final Thoughts & Analysis

• NATO–US Uncertainty:

  • Unusually, no readout has been released after a two-hour Trump–NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meeting. This lack of information is interpreted as potentially stabilizing, possibly indicating Rutte was able to calm Trump's anti-NATO rhetoric for now.

• Watchpoints:

  • Russian disarray is growing, both on the home front (economy, censorship, regional disasters) and in foreign projection (maritime standoffs, alliances fraying, and global parody of Putin's statecraft).
  • Domestic unrest, especially in regions like Dagestan, could expose cracks in the Kremlin’s hold.

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In summation:
This episode highlighted how Western pressure and Ukrainian military innovation are squeezing Russia on the battlefield, how the Kremlin’s confidence and propaganda tactics are evolving in response to US and global dynamics, and how internal vulnerabilities—from economic decay to censorship and regional unrest—are quietly mounting. The next few months, especially with key elections, EU-Russia jousting in Armenia, and the May 9th parade, may prove pivotal for the course of the conflict and for Russian society.

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Transcript

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[Dom Nicholls]

I'm Dom Nicholls and this is Ukraine. The latest. Today, as Russian shadow fleet tankers steam through the English Channel backed up by a warship, Britain sends an aging civilian crewed logistic vessel to wave a diplomatic fist. Luckily, the telegraph was also floating about nearby to witness Prime Minister Sakir Starmer's new shadow fleet policy in action. We report that Ukrainian military intelligence officials say they've put Russia's last remaining ferry in the Kirch Strait out of action, potentially isolating occupied Crimea. And we hear that Hungary has uncovered a massive Ukrainian money laundering operation just days ahead of a general election. What are the chances? Plus, later we hear from our resident Russia watcher and ask, is Moscow's jeering a sign that the Kremlin no longer fears Donald Trump? Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

[David Knowles]

Russia does not want Feeschen Werther.

[Dom Nicholls]

If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years.

[James Kilner]

Nobody's going to break us. We're strong, we're Ukrainians.

[Dom Nicholls]

It's Thursday the 9th of April, four years and 44 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by our Russia expert, James Kilner. So let's start on the battlefield. Next to no move on the ground, as has been the case in quite a few months now, mainly just these infiltration dashes rushing forward to try and take a. Well, not take a position, but try and take a new hiding place, often with a flag. Now that may be because of the compound effect of Ukraine's drone capabilities. Drone capabilities of all types, classes and ranges, which are said to be degrading both Russia's frontline forces and Russia's long range strike campaign. Now, we've observed and reported this for many months. But now we have some statistics to back up that assessment. They were offered yesterday by Ukrainian presidential office deputy head Colonel Pavlo Polisa. He was speaking to Ukrainian news agency RBK Ukraine. He said Ukrainian forces have a slight numerical drone superiority over Russia. Now on the front line they have 1.3 strike drones to every one Russian strike drone. He also said 32% of Ukrainian drones are electronic warfare resistant fiber optic drones compared to 24% of Russian drones. And he said the repeated strikes against Russian drone launch sites and infrastructure has prevented Russian forces from launching up to 1,000 drones simultaneously, as well as forcing Russian forces to stagger these drone launches throughout the day. Now, much of those stats came from the Institute for the Study of War. There is parity 1.3 to 1 or 32%, 34% what have you. You know, that is probably why there is so little movement on the ground. But speaking of Ukraine's drone campaign, residents of the Russian city of Krymsk in Krasnodar Krai, about 70 km southeast of the Kirch Bridge, were left without power yesterday after several explosions were heard coming from the nearby oil pumping station. An electricity substation is also thought to have been hit. The regional governor there said that one person had been killed. Now that is very close to the Kirsch Bridge. Speaking of which, Euromaidan Press and others are are reporting today that Ukraine's military intelligence, the hur, said yesterday that they had put Russia's last remaining railway ferry in the Kerch Strait out of action by striking the Slavianin with drones overnight on Sunday, Monday. So the incident happened last weekend, but they only reported it yesterday. Now the HOOR says the vessel was the final railway ferry of three of the Russian occupation forces in the strait still afloat. Ukrainian strikes early after the start of the full scale invasion damaged the railway section of the Kerch Bridge, forcing Russia to restrict heavy loads on it. Ferries then became Russia's primary workaround for moving military cargo between the Russian port of Kavkaz and occupied Crimea. Since then, Ukraine has systematically targeted Russia's Kirch logistics chain. That's the bridge, the ferries and port Kafkaz itself. That's just north of the bridge on a spit of land that sticks out from Russia. It's a logistic hub for oil, grain, bulk cargo and passenger ferries. Now if the HORS claim holds, Russia now faces a choice between risking heavier loads on the structurally weakened Kirch Bridge or rerouting military logistics through the longer corridor across occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast that would expose the trains to Ukraine's strike drones. Now, according to her, the Slavian vessel had been supplying Russian forces in occupied Crimea with fuel and lubricants, weapons, other military equipment and ammunition. But overnight Sunday, Monday, drones from their active operations department hit it in the Kirch Strait. The Hur described the operation as having finished off the vessel. Now, the reason they say they finished it off and the reason they say it's the last remaining ferry is because in May 2024, Ukraine's missiles hit the Conroe Trader and the Avangard ferries. The other two ferries. Two months later, the Slavianin sustained damage at Port Kafkaz. The following month, the Conroe Trader was hit again while loaded with fuel cars, with the country's navy later confirming the destruction of that vessel. It all went quiet for a while. Then just last month, the HOOR disabled the Avant Garde ferry in a strike that also damaged the Slavianin. Across the rest of the country, 99 of 119 drones were brought down by Ukraine. However, those that did get through and other attacks killed two people and injured 23. The strikes hit basically an arc from Sumy in the north through Kharkiv into the Donbas and down into Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson Oblast. Now not part of last night's attack, but reported today by Turkish news outlet Anadullu Agency. A Russian drone damaged the historic 19th century estate in Kharkiv region on Tuesday, Ukraine's State Emergency Service said today. The drone strike hit the village of Veliki Baluk in Kubyansk district. It's about 50 kilometers in east of Kharkiv city, starting a fire that engulfed the wooden structure, Ukrainian officials said. The latest repatriation exchange also took place earlier today. The Coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war has said Russia returned the bodies or remains of a thousand soldiers to Ukraine. Ukraine returned 41 to Russia. Ukrainian law enforcement investigators and experts from the Interior Ministry will conduct examinations to identify the repatriated individuals who before handing them over to their families for burial, the coordination headquarters reported. Now let's talk about the shadow fleet, Russia's shadow fleet for a moment. First, some good news. The Guardian is today reporting that the French government is going to double penalties for ships that fail to fly a flag or refuse to comply with instructions. France is going to impose penalties of up to two years in prison and a fine of €300,000. That's the good news. Next, the less good news. In an exclusive Telegraph report today, our defence editor, Tom Cottrell, who's been bobbing a noggin in the English Channel. Yesterday, he was watching a Russian Shadow Fleet tanker transit through the English Channel without being stopped by British forces, despite Prime Minister Sakiya Starmer's authorisation last month for the UK military to board such vessels. Not only that, but the two Russian Shadow Fleet vessels were chaperoned by a Russian warship, the frigate and Admiral Grigorovich. Been practicing that all morning. Now, a British RFA tanker, RFA being the Royal Fleet Auxiliary, that's a civilian manned logistic element of the Navy. That was the only ship, the RFA Tide Force was the only British military asset sent out to track the Russian ships. This all happened about 10 miles off Dover. Tom was on a boat, the Royal Charlotte, watching it all happen and perhaps getting a little bit too close if his reports is anything to go by now. Also yesterday, the Telegraph identified two other sanctioned Russian tankers, the Gambia flagged Desert Kite and the Koussay from Sierra Leone, sailing through the Channel in the opposite direction, having entered on Tuesday evening. Speaking at a press conference this morning, British Defence Secretary John Healey acknowledged that there was more we can do about the Shadow Fleet, but then said, as the Prime Minister has announced, we are ready, we have the military options and we're ready to take action, not just in support of, but actually with allies, to interdict Shadow Fleet vessels. And I would just suggest to you, if the action we've already taken, the action the Prime Minister has indicated we're ready to take, in addition, is making Russia reroute its shadowships as it has, or escort its shadowships with its own warships. Now, that's not ideal. However, the Royal Navy and the wider MOD can do some pretty impressive stuff when they have to. It's been revealed today that Russia ran a secret submarine operation in British waters that that threatened vital energy and data cables. John Healey said the UK had monitored a Kremlin attack submarine and two spy vessels in the North Sea for a month before they retreated. He said British warships had dropped sonar buoys to deter the submarines. One was a Russian Akula class nuclear powered attack sub. And there were also two specialist submarines belonging to the Deep Sea research program known as Googie. They were deterred from targeting subsea cables, he said, which provide essentially telecommunications and carry large volumes of data between countries. At a Downing street press conference a few hours ago, Mr. Healey said to President Putin, I say we see you, we see your activity over our cables and our pipelines. And you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences. Now remember early last month when Hungarian authorities seized two Ukrainian banked vehicles that were transporting approximately $82 million worth of cash and gold from Austria to Ukraine. Well, Hungary has just found new evidence that it was all part of a massive money laundering operation. In a stunning turn of events just four days before the election that polls suggest Viktor Orban is going to lose, Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltan Kovacs said yesterday that investigators had found freshly printed Euros and dollars that have never entered circulation. He claimed they were tied to multiple banks, including Ukraine's Oshed bank, as well as Polish and Gibraltar based institutions. Now, they also managed to find a video of a Ukrainian official falsifying documents in a gas station restroom and his associates discussing corruption related payments. Ukraine's Oshad bank issued a public statement in response denying all these new allegations. They said the video contains audio of a conversation between members of the cash collection team for publication to a Hungarian audience. Hungarian subtitles were added, including a phrase corruption money that does not exist in the audio track. It is precisely this deliberately added phrase that forms the basis of Hungary's conclusions linking the video to the case of unlawful detention of Oshad Bank's funds. As a reminder, the bank employees were released the day after the detention. But Hungary has hung on to the cash and the gold. Well, that's it for the main updates. Now let's turn to our tame Russia watcher, James Kilner. Delighted to have you with us again, James. Before you take us inside Russia, I want to ask your opinion on something, please. I have a feeling that Russia no longer seems to fear Trump and I want to ask you if that is significant. Bear with me, please. So, Steve Rosenberg, BBC Russia editor. As he always does, he went through the papers this morning, put a tweet out, about four or five minute tweet, always worth a watch, he said, quoting one of the Russian papers saying Trump has escaped from the trap of his own making. He's talking about Iran. But only the feverish mind of the American President himself can consider this a triumphant victory. And then referring to Iran's 10 point ceasefire demands, the paper goes on. The only thing missing from the list is the demand that the arrogant American leader himself personally comes to Tehran, crawls 10 kilometers periodically kill kissing the bombed asphalt and then publicly repent. And then finally, in the Russian government paper, Steve says the opinion piece suggests that in Iran the United States saw the limits of its capabilities and everyone else saw it too. He says it reaches this conclusion. So this is the Russian state media. I'm going to forget the name. I can't pronounce the name. I think it might have been Novetic Gazeta, but you'll, you'll know better than me. But it says the US is not omnipotent. Its ability to impose its will in any way is significant, but limited. Everyone will draw conclusions from this, both friends and allies and enemies. This is another step to a completely different world. Trump's attempt to transform the American liberal world order into an American anti liberal one seems to be failing. These are completely new times. So I was quite surprised, bearing in mind that nothing really gets out in these papers if it's against the flow of information the Kremlin would support. I thought they were quite pointed there, quite derisory of Trump. What do you take from those comments?

[James Kilner]

Well, very florid, lurid writing. That's my first comment. They're not holding back, are they? I think it's important to make a point here that Russia, the Kremlin, the mouthpieces that he'd been talking about, the newspapers, they've never really feared Trump. They really saw him as an asset and an ally and they talked him up. They tried to bolster Trump, whereas they derided Biden. The Kremlin made a lot of efforts to inject Trump into textbooks as a good and strong president. So I think what we're seeing now with this very obvious change in tact is a decision by the Kremlin. They've seen this weakness, they've seen Trump's missteps around Iran and they decided that they're going to exploit it. They decided that this is the way they can undermine US support for Ukraine. I think the crime actually put out a statement today saying all peace talks with Ukraine are currently over. They're not ongoing as far as you know, the Kremlin is concerned. And obviously the US peace negotiators are too busy in Pakistan dealing with the Iranians anyway. So the point is here, the Kremlin has seen a weakness, change its strategy and is broadcasting his messages to ordinary public. I have to make the point though, that although Russian media generally saw Trump as an, as an ally and an asset, the US was still anniversary, still sending missiles to Ukraine. Russia's main ally is China. China's propped up the Russian economies. It buys its oil and gas, it allowed Russian business to use the Chinese financial system, which is locked out of the west, et cetera, and the U.S. trump is also China's main anniversary. So I think in many ways what the Kremlin is doing is showing its frailty, its loyalty to Beijing, to China, around it, with the US by really acting as sort of a lap dog, as sort of an attack dog and pointing out the US and Trump weaknesses.

[Dom Nicholls]

Yeah, interesting. What else have you been tracking in the Russian press?

[James Kilner]

Well, they're having a lot of fun poking Britain. The Russian warships are escorting these oil tankers, feeling its channel. Lots of talk as well about NATO splits. It's the sort of trope that we've gotten used to in the Russian media. And obviously these attacks on Trump is really the headline story from the Russian media and that very clear change in Kremlin strategy.

[Dom Nicholls]

Now, Nicole Pashinyan was in Moscow last week trolling. I don't think that's too strong a word, or certainly being very disrespectful to Vladimir Putin. Was this as extraordinary as I thought it was, or is this just sort of. Occasionally you see these sorts of things?

[James Kilner]

Yeah, yeah, I know, Dom. I think it's definitely a significant moment here. Nikolian, he, the revolutionary leader of Armenia, came to power in 2018 in the peaceful revolution and has very much taken a pro EU line fell out of Putin and the Kremlin. Between 2020 and 2023, the Kremlin failed to provide any real support and defense against Azerbaijan when Azerbaijan and Armenia were warring over disputed territory called Nagorno Karabakh. Since 2023, the Sinhen has really turbocharged his push towards the EU, and this has obviously irritated Putin. We know that Putin gets particularly upset when former colonies such as Armenia try to shift towards. And Ukraine tried to, with the Maidan revolution in 2014, tried to shift towards the EU. And so it's playing out again with Armenia. There's an election, a parliamentary election coming up in Armenia in June, and Pashinian has made joining the EU central to his ticket, his platform in this election. The Kremlin has responded by saying he's going to mount an influence campaign to keep Armenia inside its sphere of influence hierarchy. Officials have already warned Armenia of serious consequences if it did join the eu, this sort of thing. The EU has responded by promising hundreds of millions of dollars to Armenia to bolster democracy and I think earlier at the end of April, something called a hybrid rapid response team to Armenia to counter Russian propaganda. So what we had here last week in the Kremlin, this was the first time Pashinian has been to the Kremlin for a bilateral summit. With Putin since September. What we had here, I think, was basically Putin and Pashinian duking it out in front of the cameras. This sort of like duel between these two men with very opposed positions. Pachinian basically told Putin that they had a great democracy in Armenia. The social media was 100% free. After Putin had reasserted the warning to Armenia that there'd be major consequences if it got close to the eu, Pashinian was clearly ready for this moment and responded with this trolling of Putin and Putin. The image is remarkable, the video is remarkable. Pashinian's almost grinning, he's almost laughing at Putin sitting in the middle of the Kremlin, almost laughing. And Putin is just looking at his feet. He's not even looking at Brazilian. He looks like a petulant teenager being told off. It's a remarkable scene. And I think Armin has sort of become really the focus of this hearts and minds battle now between the EU and Russia. And we saw it playing out right in the Kremlin at the end of last week. So really something very important to keep on top of.

[Dom Nicholls]

I mean, you watch more of this than me, than most of us. I mean, how significant is that? Is that body language of Putin looking sheep? He's looking at his feet, being bored, disinterested, not clearly not liking what he's hearing. But I've seen many, many politicians have to listen to stuff that we know they don't like having to listen to, and they style it out. I mean, is that just not the way that Russia does it, or is this actually, actually a very significant moment?

[James Kilner]

I think it's a very significant Dom. I don't remember Putin having to put up with this sort of language, this sort of telling off this trolling. Kremlin would see, I mean, as a total underling. So for the head of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Pashinian, to come to the Kremlin, invited by Putin to explain himself basically, and then give it back, is really quite remarkable. I think Putin was completely caught off guard. He hadn't expected this and he just sort of looked away in trying to look to Riseri, but he just looked completely, you know, baffled by this trolling aspect by Shinyan, who's clearly confident enough to give it out in front of the cameras. There's a major EU summit coming up in Yerevan next month, and the month after, beginning of June, there's this parliamentary election. It is going to be tense. Xinyan's gone after the Armenian church. He's arrested several high ranking Bishops who are meant to be pro Russian. He's put a pro Russian billionaire, Armenian billionaire. He's imprisoned for attempted couple. So all these things are playing out and it's all going to come to a fore in a couple of months time in Armenia.

[Dom Nicholls]

All right, well, we will watch that with interest. Might actually try to. Try to get there, if we're able to.

[James Kilner]

I. I would definitely recommend that. Yeah, definitely. It's a great place. Are you going?

[Dom Nicholls]

You're going to be there? Why don't we both go?

[James Kilner]

Yeah, I'd love to. I would love to. Francis carry the bags factory depending.

[Dom Nicholls]

And I would. Just out of interest, I would love to know what an EU hybrid rapid response team looks like. I sort of picture this sort of. This army of bureaucrats with sort of red tape machines everywhere. I'm joking, I'm joking, I'm joking. Them lovely people I voted remain, for God's sake. Anyway, now you mentioned the Internet, you mentioned that passion Yan saying about how free and open the information space was in. In Armenia. What's the latest from Russia on the Internet ban and Telegram and all this kind of stuff, closing down the social media space or the information space more. More widely.

[James Kilner]

Yeah, Dom, So this is like been an ongoing story now for several weeks. The latest is that these mobile Internet blocks in St Petersburg and Moscow, they're dissipated. They're still there, but they're dissipated. They're more fractious. They're not as hardcore. It's the Telegram ban which is really irritating people. As we know, the Kremlin has tried to ban Telegram. It's now trying to ban VPNs, which people have been using to get to access Telegram. And the reason this is so important is obviously betraying Kremlin paranoia about controlling people and increasing censorship. That's an obvious point to make, but it's also impacting people in Moscow and St Petersburg more thoroughly than, you know, they previously experienced. If you're down in Southern Russia, Belgrade or etc. You've been experiencing these mobile blockages and banned various bands of various messaging acts for some time, but not in St Petersburg, in Moscow. And it's really impactful people. Like I said, there's been a drop in Putin popularity. Even pro Kremlin pollsters are saying this. My sense is that they overhype the Putin's popularity anyway, but they have still recorded an absolute drop, so we can assume that it has hit his popularity. Z bloggers. These are pro war bloggers, both useful to the Kremlin, but also an irritation they strongly back its war in Ukraine but they basically say that the Kremlin hasn't gone far enough and they decristicize. The Kremlin have been absolutely outraged by this telegram ban for obvious reasons. They basically live on Telegram and they get a lot of their cash funding through Telegram. So they're completely irritated and flying off the handle of the Kremlin about it. It's also had rather sort of unusual unforeseen consequences. There's been reports in the Belarusian media there's been an increase in parman purchases in Minsk canto at Belarus by Russians who are escaping Russia. Go to Belarus to get a more free Internet media. You also have people like Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council and Ramzan Kadyrov, the pro Kremlin Chechen warlord, still using Telegram all the time. You know it's supposed to be banned but these guys are still using it which again is irritating ordinary Russians. One rule for us, another rule for others.

[Dom Nicholls]

Oh yeah. I mean although to be fair to Medved, every probably so pissed he doesn't know what the rules are. But anyway, never mind, never mind. Now stepping back a little bit, looking at the economy more broadly, I can't remember and this is genuine, I honestly can't remember. What's the bellwether that you use for the, for the economy? Is it potatoes or bananas?

[James Kilner]

It's. There's always one staple food product which seems to be spiking in price earlier this year was cucumbers. We got to the point where cucumbers.

[Dom Nicholls]

Sorry, God, I've got it totally wrong.

[James Kilner]

Cucumbers came so expensive they were slicing it off by the grammar. You know, they're weighing it out by the gram I think a couple of years ago is potatoes previously eggs, you know. So the economic pressure in Russia is so great that there's always a spike in sun product more recently. I was just reading about it this morning. Sugar has started spiking. So all the other staples seem to be more or less on the control price wise. But sugar has started spiking. So the border point here is that even post pro Kremen newspapers are now talking about a recession in Russia. One newspaper is talking about a 2 percentage point drop in GDP which is obviously massive size of the economy to get lobbed off. Consumer spending has really collapsed. They got a VAT down to VAT increase January 1st from 20 to 22%. That increase was specifically to be spent on the war in Ukraine. Inflation is running at 20% or there or thereabouts, newspapers now warning that 40% of clothes stores in Russia will have to shut because no one's buying any more clothes. They're just making deal and mending, mending their own trades or spending the cash on food and et cetera. Yeah. The economic news from Russia continues to be dire. Even though this is an important point to make, Dom. Even though we keep talking about how the Kremlin is going to enjoy a boost in revenues because of oil, oil price spikes linked to the war in Iran. Economists feel that boost to the Ukrainians coffers is going to get spent straight on the war in Ukraine, funding its army in Ukraine and will not benefit general economy, general citizens of Russia in any way whatsoever. I've already seen in the last few days, in the last week or so, an increase to the bounties that regional governments are offering men to sign up to the war in Ukraine. Last year they were sort of trying to reduce it, now I think they've been told to increase it. There may be more cash from central government coming down the line to regions to increase recruitment. Once again, there is a very nice instructive story from Moscow where Russian Railways, one of the most important institutions in Russia, is selling two skyscrapers to 63 story high skyscrapers, selling two of them, which it owns in a region of Moscow called Moscow City. It's basically Canary Wharf of Moscow. It's selling about 280 billion rubles, about 2.7 billion pounds. It needs the cash to clear some of the debt because it's become so indebted since Putin launched his war in Ukraine and crashed the economy.

[Dom Nicholls]

And yet, and yet, and yet. We talk about the Russian economy being in dire straits a lot, but it hasn't collapsed. They seem to revel in taking pain. They can't do anything about it anyway, as in the populace. So are we just performatively enjoying this ho, ho, ho, slicing cucumbers by the gram, et cetera, et cetera, or is it really starting to bite? No pun intended?

[James Kilner]

Yeah, I mean, that's an important point. I think it is getting worse and worse. So I think that is, you know, that that's just a fact. That's an immovable fact. Whether it triggers a revolution or frustration on the street is another issue. And I can't see that happening for now. I can't see the economy being the trigger which causes the protests. I can see an army of a million men coming back from Ukraine to Russia as a major, major problem. But the economy itself, maybe there's a Link between the economy continuing to crash and the Kremlin increase in censorship by the Kremlin maybe getting more worried about it. But you know, there aren't protests, there aren't protests around food or clothing prices now there are protests around the telegram censorship, but not about the economy. But it is definitely something we have to continue to talk about. And we need to be sure that when we do talk about, we talk about these oil price increases, that we understand that they're going straight to fund the war in Ukraine and not to reduce taxes on ordinary people or improve utilities or cut the costs of the mine inflation.

[Dom Nicholls]

Now, last one for me, Russia's Mayday parade coming up May 9th. Often use as a showcase for new weapons. So are we this year going to see Ukraine's Flamingo missile?

[James Kilner]

Right. Okay, yeah, not probably not quite the sort of new weapon that the Kremlin wants to unveil, but it's clearly a concern of the Kremlin. This is a missile that Ukraine unveiled at the end of the second half of last year. Got a range of 3000km, I think it is. So it can cover half of Russia's. I think it's been used twice to hit sites inside Russia to varying degrees of success. Ukraine could obviously hit Moscow with this missile as well as with its long range drones. So it appears that the Kremlin has already canceled the aviation. The flyover bit of its May 9th grade. It's done this before. It's blamed it on the weather before. It may or may not be the weather this time is too far off. But clearly there's some concern about Ukrainian missiles or drones. Z bloggers, these annoying Z bloggers for the Ukraine are now saying the whole thing might well be canceled. Maybe they're just spreading dispersion and agitating. Maybe they're onto something. The Kremlin has been forced to already issue a statement saying this is not the case. But we do know they are increasingly worried about the Flamingo missile and these long range drones. This is probably part of the reason that they've clapped out on the mobile Internet in Moscow. We also know around this parade that they previously canceled localized parades around Russia, firstly because the Kremlin wanted to hide the fact that so many soldiers been killed and there weren't enough soldiers to really parade down the streets and they didn't have enough tanks to do it, et cetera. So they, you know, they started canceling the parades in provincial cities more recently. I think last year they also canceled them in southern Russia because they were worried about drone attacks. So I think we are having a progressively pressured main night parade. This is the Kremlin's main propaganda day of the year and we may see the Z bloggers warning estimate it gets it gets cancelled together. I I don't know. It'd be huge embarrassment to the Kremlin if they did have to cancel it, but Ukrainian threat is definitely on the cards.

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Lunch was Great, but this traffic is awful.

Um, can we stop at a bathroom?

[Dom Nicholls]

Are you alright?

[Patient]

I keep having stomach issues after eating like diarrhea, gas and bloating, abdominal pain and sometimes oily stools.

[Pharmacist/Doctor]

Sound familiar? Those stomach issues may actually be a pancreas issue called exocrine pancreatic insufficiency or epi. Creon pancrel may help manage epi. Creon is a prescription medicine used to treat people who can't digest food normally because their pancreas doesn't make enough enzymes.

Creon may increase your chance of fibrosing colonopathy, a rare bowel disorder. Tell your doctor if you have a history of intestinal blockage or scarring or thickening of your bowel wall, if you are allergic to pork, or if you have gout, kidney problems or worsening of painful swollen joints. Call your doctor if you have any unusual or severe gastrointestinal symptoms or allergic reactions. Take Creon as directed by your doctor and always with food. Do not chew capsules, as this may cause mouth irritation. Other side effects may include blood sugar changes, gas, dizziness, sore throat and cough. These are not all the side effects of Creon. Call 800-6391 or visit creoninfo.com to learn more. That's C R E O-N-Info.com I'm asking

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my doctor about EPI and if Creon could help.

[Dom Nicholls]

James, thanks as ever. I know you're pressed for time, so let's. I'll whiz to final thoughts. I will go first, partly to give yourself a chance to take a breather, but also because I'm going to cheat and I'm going to going to ask your opinion to sort of fill in the back half of my. Of my final thought. But my thought is we're now 24 hours after Mark Rutter, the NATO Secretary General, was in Washington in the Oval Office, no cameras, no press conference that we normally see around the sofas. We were told he was in the Oval Office with Donald Trump for two hours. Now, that is quite a long meeting. I said the day before that I would imagine it's going to be quite a spiky meeting. I think Mark Rutter would have to be on his toes doing a lot of defending of the alliance and explaining and, you know, stroking ears and all that kind of, all that kind of stuff. I don't know whether or not I should be concerned or relieved that here we are about 24 hours later and we've not heard a readout, We've not heard Unless it's broken in the last few minutes whilst we've been recording. But I've not seen anything necessarily from the White House. Saw it beforehand. Caroline Levitt, the White House press spokesperson, saying, oh, yeah, Donald Trump's going to raise the issue of NATO withdrawal or US withdrawing from NATO. We've not had a readout from the US administration and neither have we had a readout from Mark Rutter or NATO. So I don't know if that's. If that's a good thing, that it was a workable meeting or a bad one that actually didn't go well and both sides decided not to talk about it much. So I raised that as a final thought, but I would welcome your opinion on it.

[James Kilner]

Yeah, I think no news from Trump is good news, surely the longer he stays quiet, the poor Chance kept calling

[Dom Nicholls]

him Daddy, maybe that seemed to work.

[James Kilner]

So I'd see that as a sort of emollient. I take that as an emollient line. And, and hopefully Rich has sort of said some, some calming words to Mr. Trump and, and his temper's been. Been. Been relaxed.

[Dom Nicholls]

Our enormous Ulsterman. Your final thoughts? Yes, please, James.

[James Kilner]

I think the Kremlin is desperate for. For NATO to split. It would. Nothing could be better for. For Putin in the Kremlin. So, yeah, we are in very. That's a very dangerous times. A great scoop from the Telegraph last week about that, when Connor Stringer got to talk to Mr. Trump and get that on record. As for my final thoughts, I just want to frag up a story to listeners which has got very little coverage in the West Western newspaper. There's been major, major flooding in Dagestan in southern Russia, restive, volatile region, mainly Muslim. This is the worst flooding, according to commentators, for over 100 years. Dam's been broken, etc. It's killed at least 7 people, 50,000 people apparently been injured, thousands of homes destroyed, all this sort of thing. The images are remarkable of people sort of trying to wade through water up to their neck to escape massive houses being. Being shifted or, you know, destroyed, inflating away and that sort of thing. The importance of this story is how does central government respond? Is it capable of responding in an effective, meaningful way to show people in Dagestan that it has the ability to protect them and step in when there's emergency? Or has it lost that ability because it's so caught up in the war in Ukraine? It recruited heavily from Dagestan and poorer outlying regions of Russia for it, for its military. And we've seen protests against, you know, some of the biggest protests in Russia earlier on. I'm talking about 2022 here and 2023 against conscription, against sort of forced recruitment of men were in Dagestan. And at the same time there were major protests in the region when there's huge electricity outages and people getting frustrated with quality of their life. We had those airport programs at the end of 2023 protesting men captured the airport when they thought a plane from Israel is going to land there. All this sort of stuff saying. My point is, if central government, the Kremlin, can't show itself to be effective in Dagestan, it could be a source of more meaningful protests against the Kremlin. And I think it's worth watching. I'm not saying it's going to tip the balance, but I think if you're looking for these little potential weak points, Dagestan, worse floods in more than a century is something to keep an eye on.

[Dom Nicholls]

Brilliant. Well, thanks, James. Thank you so much for your contributions, eh? As ever, let me know the next time you're in town. We'll go for a repeat match at the Crown and Cushion. And that's it, folks. That's us for today. So do stick with us tomorrow, same time, same place. Hope you can join us. Look forward to your company. Thanks very much.

[David Knowles]

Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. [e-mail] crane the latest there's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing [e-mail] we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was Today produced by Phil Atkins. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.

My name is David Knowles.

[Dom Nicholls]

Thank you all for listening.

[James Kilner]

Goodbye.

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[Dom Nicholls]

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[James Kilner]

Acast.com lunch was great, but this traffic is awful.

[Patient]

Um, can we stop at a bathroom?

[Commuter]

Are you alright?

[Patient]

I keep having stomach issues after eating like diarrhea, gas and bloating, abdominal pain and sometimes oily stools.

[Pharmacist/Doctor]

Sound familiar? Those stomach issues may actually be a pancreas issue called exocrine pancreatic insufficiency, or epi. Creon pancrelipase may help manage ep. Creon is a prescription medicine used to treat people who can't digest food normally because their pancreas doesn't make enough enzymes.

Creon may increase your chance of fibrosing colonopathy, a rare bowel disorder. Tell your doctor if you have a history of intestinal blockage or scarring or thickening of your bowel wall. If you are allergic to pork or if you have gout, kidney problems or worsening of painful, swollen joints, Call your doctor if you have any unusual or severe gastrointestinal symptoms or allergic reactions. Take Creon as directed by your doctor and always with food. Do not chew capsules, as this may cause mouth irritation. Other side effects may include blood sugar changes, gas, dizziness, sore throat and cough. These are not all the side effects of Creon. Call 800-633-9110 or visit creon info.com to learn more. That's C R-info.com I'm asking my doctor

[Patient]

about EPI and if Creon could help

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