Ukraine: The Latest

Episode: UK pledges 'boots on the ground' in Ukraine as European leaders meet for emergency summit

Date: 17 February 2025
Host: Francis Durnley
Guests: Dominic Nichols, James Rothwell (Berlin Correspondent), Alexandra Matvetchuk (Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Centre for Civil Liberties)

Overview

This episode examines a watershed moment in Western policy towards Ukraine and Europe following a dramatic weekend at the Munich Security Conference and as simultaneous emergency summits unfold in Saudi Arabia and Paris. With the U.S. signaling a reduced role in European security—while emphasizing cultural rifts—and the UK pledging possible direct military involvement post-war, European leaders face urgent decisions on collective defense, NATO’s future, and Ukraine’s security guarantees. The episode features firsthand reporting from Munich, military analysis, and an in-depth interview with Alexandra Matvetchuk on war crimes and the stakes for Ukrainian civilians.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Military Situation Update (03:35)

Speaker: Dominic Nichols

• Front Line Stalemate: Minimal movement on the ground in Ukraine. Small gains by Russian forces near Velika Novosilka; otherwise, high-intensity but static fighting.
• Drone Warfare: Ukraine continues precision attacks on Russian oil facilities using FPV drones, signaling new tactical trends.
• Estonia’s Defense Procurement: Estonia may shift from purchasing HIMARS to South Korean systems due to U.S. supply delays, highlighting supply chain pressures on Western rearmament.
• Casualty Figures:
  • President Zelensky: 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since invasion start; about 500/week recently.
  • Estimated 380,000 Ukrainians wounded; tens of thousands missing/detained.
  • Russian casualties approach 860,000 (Ukraine’s General Staff).
• Russian Mood:
  • Domestic Russian media and officials are jubilant after Trump-Putin communications.
  • Comments from U.S. Vice President JD Vance criticizing European priorities are welcomed as division within the West.

Quote:
“Any sign of cracks in the Western alliance is always welcomed [in Russia]... Vice President J.D. Vance’s comments at Munich... is absolute catnip for Russia, makes them very happy indeed.” — Dominic Nichols [09:36]

2. Munich Security Conference: U.S. Policy Shift & European Shock (10:24)

Speaker: James Rothwell

• Turning Point for Transatlantic Relations:
  • U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech shocked delegates: Focused on “culture war” issues in Europe (free speech, elections, far-right politics) instead of Ukraine or security.
  • Absence of commitment on Ukraine: “They were in a state of shock… You could hear a pin drop.” — James Rothwell [11:47]
• Concerns of U.S. Election Interference:
  • Europeans alarmed at perceived U.S. meddling in EU political processes, especially in Germany regarding the far-right AfD.
• Policy Highlights:
  • President Zelensky publicly doubts U.S. seriousness about Ukrainian NATO membership (13:17).
  • Suggestion that Europe could create a new multinational defense structure (“European army”), though Poland opposed boots on the ground.
  • U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg diminishes Europe’s role in negotiations and urges Europeans to bring more “ideas to the table.”
  • UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy calls for 2.5% GDP defense spending, warning of higher costs without immediate action.

Quote:
“President Zelensky… feels the United States had never been serious about letting Ukraine into NATO… If Ukraine can’t be in NATO, what is the alternative that the Europeans might put forward?” — James Rothwell [13:25]

3. The Emergency Summits: Saudi Arabia & Paris (19:32)

Speaker: Francis Durnley

• Saudi Talks:
  • High-level U.S.-Russia talks expected in Riyadh; Russia (Lavrov) flatly refuses to contemplate territorial concessions in Ukraine.
  • U.S. officials heading to Saudi Arabia; Zelensky in the region, but ruling out direct meetings.
• Paris Summit:
  • European leaders meet urgently after being sidelined by U.S.-Russia bilateralism.
  • France calls for “coherence and doing more” after U.S. signals.
  • UK PM Keir Starmer’s historic pledge: UK is “ready and willing to contribute to security guarantees to Ukraine by putting our own troops on the ground if necessary.” (22:55-24:15)
  • Sweden echoes UK’s willingness for boots on the ground in peacekeeping.

Quote (Starmer):
“I do not say that lightly. I feel very deeply the responsibility… but any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent and this country, to end this war when it comes.” — quoting Keir Starmer [24:12]

4. The Strategic Dilemma: Europe’s Role Amid U.S. Uncertainty (26:50)

• European Anxiety:
  • Lithuanian former FM Gabrielis Landsbergis warns of potential Trump-Putin deal marginalizing Europe and forcing dangerous choices:
    “If Europe is unable to stand up, Ukraine will be forced to rely on itself and a smaller group of allies… Otherwise, threats to European security will grow immensely.” [28:50]
  • Raises specter of China stepping in as a security broker if both U.S. and Europe fail.
• Military Peacekeeping Options:
  • Discussion on whether a UN-mandated force would have the necessary teeth to deter Russia, drawing lessons from Gulf War and Balkans.
  • Importance of mandate wording, Russia's potential veto, and whether a “coalition of the willing” (e.g., UK-led) would be effective.

Quote:
“You can have an internationally-recognised mandate… which you would need the full gamut of fighting power and military capabilities.” — Dominic Nichols [33:30]

5. Final Thoughts & Political Fallout (37:14)

a) German Politics and U.S. Influence

Speaker: James Rothwell

• Predicts U.S. pressure may force Germany to allow far-right parties into government if AfD performs well.
• Sees JD Vance’s speech as explicit U.S. support for challenging European political status quos.

Quote:
“I think there’s a strong probability now that German leaders will come under intense pressure to break their firewall policy of not cooperating with the AfD and letting them into some kind of coalition.” — James Rothwell [37:56]

b) Alternatives to NATO: The Role of 'JEFF'

Speaker: Dominic Nichols

• Suggests the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEFF)—a coalition including Baltic and Scandinavian states—could serve as a vehicle for direct European military intervention outside NATO structures, thus avoiding vetoes from less-committed alliance members.

6. Human Rights Perspective: Interview with Alexandra Matvetchuk (43:08)

Key points:

• On JD Vance’s speech:
  “JD Vance… didn’t speak about Ukraine. He spoke about the European Union and problems… I think it’s more important to focus on the issues which are important to us… the Russian war of aggression.” [43:10]
• Collapse of International Order:
  • Calls current era one of ‘turbulent times,’ as the UN system fails to provide security or enforce accountability. [44:19]
• Security Guarantees for Ukraine:
  • Argues Ukrainians would be a net asset to NATO, having “the biggest army in Europe with real military experience.” Even if not in NATO, collective defense mechanisms outside NATO—such as joint air patrols—should be considered. [46:12]
• Consequences of Russian Occupation:
  • Documented systematic war crimes and demographic manipulation in occupied territories.
  • Militarization of Ukrainian children in occupied territories is “part of the common plan to prepare these territories as a platform for the next attack.” [51:10]
• On Justice and Ending Impunity:
  “The answer… depends whether or not our political leaders will find historical responsibility and strength to demonstrate justice and stop the cycle of impunity which Russia enjoyed for decades.” [53:10]
• European Weakness & Hope:
  • Europe has not yet shown real strength but offers hope: “Hope is not confidence… but a deep understanding that all other efforts have huge meaning.” [55:04]
• Resilience and the Power of People:
  • Despite hardships and international paralysis, Ukrainian civil society remains resilient and committed: “We are much more resilient than we think about ourselves… you can always rely on people. Because people have much more strength than they can even imagine.” [57:37]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Keir Starmer’s explicit readiness for boots on the ground:
  “Any role in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security is helping to guarantee the security of our continent and the security of this country, to end this war when it comes.” (24:12; quoting Starmer)

• On the international order:
  “Now it become obvious that such fires like wars will emerge more and more… the international wiring is faulty and sparks are everywhere.” — Alexandra Matvetchuk [44:19]

• On the inadequacy of UN mechanisms:
  “The work of 16 Security Council is paralyzed… People… started to understand that they live in the illusion… that they have security and human rights guarantees. They have no security and no human rights guarantees.” [44:30; Matvetchuk]

• On Russian war crimes as systematic:
  “War crimes is a technology… it’s technology which Russia bring to Poland if Russia will come to do it.” — Alexandra Matvetchuk [53:30]

Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |:-----:|:------------------------------------------------------| | 03:35 | Military situation update – Donbas, drones, casualties | |10:24 | Munich Security Conference analysis (JD Vance speech etc.) | |13:17 | Zelensky and European Army idea | |19:32 | Saudi & Paris summit developments, UK policy | |24:12 | Keir Starmer’s statement on UK troops in Ukraine | |26:50 | European responses, fears of China filling security gap | |31:03 | UN/NATO peace force feasibility explained | |37:14 | Closing reflections: German politics & military frameworks | |43:08 | Alexandra Matvetchuk interview: war crimes, occupation, hope |

Tone & Style

Serious, urgent, and clear-eyed; speakers balance sober analysis with moments of direct emotional clarity, particularly in interview segments addressing human rights abuses and Ukrainian resilience.

Summary

As the U.S. steps back from traditional rhetorical support for Ukraine and Europe, British and Swedish leaders pledge direct military involvement in post-war Ukrainian security, while the idea of a “European army” briefly gains traction amid widespread European anxiety. The podcast underscores the vulnerability of the international order, the growing irrelevance of the old security architecture, and the human cost of inaction—amplified by passionate testimony from Alexandra Matvetchuk, who stresses the fundamental necessity of accountability, resilience, and clarity of purpose in both policy and society.