← Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine: The Latest
Ukraine knocks out 40% of Moscow's oil export capacity in single attack & first ever successful strike on Russian military ship in Baltic Sea
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Francis Darnley
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Hayden
Howdy, howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan Fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fan Girls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
- [00:17]
Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Daddy.
- [00:21]
Hayden
And we are currently deep diving Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
- [00:30]
Stephen
That's right.
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Dr. Robert Pearson
Hei hei.
- [00:31]
Stephen
So each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single chapter.
- [00:35]
Hayden
And along the way we'll do character deep dives, magic explainers, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
- [00:42]
Stephen
News flash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday, and you can find Fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:49]
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Adam Grant
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Francis Darnley
I'm Francis Darnley and this is Ukraine. The latest today as extraordinary Ukrainian strikes in the Baltic region reportedly knock out around 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity in a single attack and achieve the first known successful strike on a Russian military ship in the Baltic Sea. We assess the strategic impact on Russia's war economy. Then we take the temperature from high level meetings in Germany and Finland and examine reports that Moscow is supplying Iran with vital assistance in its confrontation with the United States and Israel. What vulnerabilities has this widening conflict exposed for Washington.
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Dominic Nichols
Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
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Francis Darnley
Russia does not want feast.
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Dominic Nichols
If I'm president, I will have that
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Adam Grant
war settled in one day.
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Dominic Nichols
24 hours.
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Dr. Robert Pearson
We are with you.
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Dominic Nichols
Not just today or tomorrow, but for a hundred years.
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Dr. Robert Pearson
Nobody's going to break us.
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Francis Darnley
We're strong.
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Dr. Robert Pearson
We're Ukrainians.
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Francis Darnley
It's Thursday the 26th of March, four years and 30 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by my co host and associate editor of Defence here at the Telegraph, Dominic Nichols. And down the line from the United States, non resident senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Dr. Robert Pearson. But Dom, let's go to you first as ever. What's the latest in the military realm?
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Dominic Nichols
Well, thanks. Foreign says hi Robert. So the big news is the continued strikes on Russian oil terminals near St. Petersburg. It's now confirmed that Ukrainian forces have struck the ushluga oil terminal in Leningrad Oblast. Again, footage today shows it ablaze. It's more severely than originally thought or you know, carries on from the strike a couple of days ago. That's the fourth similar strike this week. So to recap, because it can get a little confusing, on Monday night Ukraine hit the Primorsk port. That's one of Russia's largest Baltic oil export hubs with capacity for around 75 million tons per year. Then on Tuesday night the Usgluga port was hit. It handles over 100 million tons of cargo annually, including oil and LNG, liquefied natural gas. Also on Tuesday night, a little to the north, across the Gulf of Finland, in the port of Vyborg, an ice patrol ship, the Perga, partially sank in the shipyard there after an attack. There's very dramatic images of it having tipped over in the dock. That's the first known successful strike on a Russian military ship in the Baltic Sea that we know of. About 1,000 kilometers from Ukrainian territory. Then the fourth strike last night. So Wednesday night, Kinev. And that's not what the Russians said when the drones were landing. That's the name of the refinery. It's apparently it's short for the Kurishi something or other. Anyway, the Khurishi refinery, one of Russia's largest, with a processing capacity of around 20 million tons a year. That strike on the Knif refinery has been confirmed by the Leningrad Oblast governor. Now, according to Reuters calculations, about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capabilities, that equates to around 2 million barrels per day, were shut as of Wednesday after the most recent attack. It's the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia. It hits Moscow just as oil prices exceed $100 a barrel because of the Iran war. Now, possibly brackets, probably connected. Also, last night, or the early hours of this morning to be precise, a Sierra Leone flagged crude oil tanker was reportedly struck by projectiles approximately 12 nautical miles north of the Bospora Strait in Turkey. Now there were reports that the Altura had been struck at approximately 22:30 local last night. The vessel was en route from Novorossiysk, the new home of the Black Sea fleet Novorossi in Russia, to Istanbul in Turkey. The tanker was laden with oil bound for India at the time of the attack, we're told. Ombre Intelligence, the global maritime risk management firm, say that as a result of the incident the vessel sustained significant damage to the engine room and bridge with search and rescue operations for the 24 crew members ongoing following a distress call to Turkish authorities. Now there are Turkey flagged law enforcement and search and rescue vessels in the area. We are told they were observed throughout today, early hours of today, in the vicinity of the tanker. The Altura was sanctioned by the UK just in February, just a couple of months ago. Just last month in fact. Yeah, it's hard to keep time.
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Francis Darnley
Keep message with you at the moment.
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Dominic Nichols
Sanctioned last month, thought to be part of Russia's shadow fleet. Now an update to that. The Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure said the incident was carried out by an unmanned surface vessel, I. E. A maritime drone, a sea drone. There are no fatalities or injuries reported. The crew members on board all rescued by Turkish responders. We are told the engine room was taking on water as a result of the drone strike. And at the time of writing this is Hombre's report. They said the vessel is listed as not under command, so that's on the automatic identification systems. Vessels is not under command, making it clear to other maritime vessels in the area that this thing is just drifting. An enormous great oil tanker drifting. Now other strikes. Ukraine hit elsewhere too, cutting the power of almost half a million people. In Russia, Kyiv reportedly launched almost 400 drones according to Russian authorities. So take that with as much salt as you want to. Belgorod we are told, or they say was was worse. Yet the governor there said it had caused serious damage to energy infrastructure. Now yesterday I heard you and Adlie, you were speculating why there are relatively few casualties from the huge Russian air raid on well Monday, Monday night, wasn't it? Monday and Tuesday, nearly 1,000 aired vehicles in total, as you say, the largest series of strikes of the, the entire war. What was suggesting it was because of the, the government warnings? Well another factor could be that Ukrainian air defenses are getting better depending on what the incoming munitions are. So they say they shot down 97% of the drones. That's higher than their average. So they say of the 556 drones used on Monday night, 541 were shot down or suppressed by electronic warfare. Now again you posted maybe it's because it's daytime. Obviously it's easier to see in daytime. So if you've just got the old fashioned heavy machine gun, you can more easily see where the things are and bring them down. So I think all these factors combined mean that that success rate was, was higher than, than their recent average.
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Francis Darnley
Because when you were in Odessa you went out and visited one of the sites where they shoot down the drones before they can get to the city and they were using, is it night vision equipment in order to be able to clock the drones in the sky?
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Dominic Nichols
Well, yeah, they had night vision, they had radar, they had a radar feed from somewhere. They wouldn't tell me where it was, they wouldn't let, I wonder why. But they could see. Obviously not ballistic missiles, they, they're moving so fast that they kind of come out of nowhere really. But certainly the drones shahed drone especially they can see them coming. So that's why they're able to very accurately put out these or not the air defenders. But the system is able to put out the air alerts and let people know if they need to go to the shelters and what have you. But yeah, you can actually, you can just look at the radar, see where it's coming, get in position. That's for drones but that's not for all munitions. I mean some do get through as we report. And in the last 24 hours, 130 of 153 drones were brought down ew or shot down or just or failed or destroyed in the, in the air at least 16 drones got through hitting 11 locations with two people killed and 30 injured. Now on the ground speculating about the, the spring offensive. We think it still going on. The Borova and LMAN areas seem to be the sector of main activity now up in the Donbas. Russian forces there said to be attacking at least six areas simultaneously with over 20 armoured vehicles and nearly 100 motorcycles, all terrain vehicles and buggies. Now the commander of a Ukrainian drone battalion operating in the vicinity of Lyman said that Russian forces undertook standard textbook Preparations for these kind of, these assaults, hitting Ukrainian logistics in depth with drones and glide bombs, hitting crossings across rivers and dams on the Seversky Donetsk river to. To prevent either Ukrainian reinforcements or areas of withdrawal. So he said all this sort of shows where they're intending to push. He said these mechanized assaults, which he described as massive, but I think that shows just how the metric has changed. I mean, 20 armed vehicles is quite big, but if you start including buggies and motorcycles, that doesn't scream hugely capable to me. But it's bigger than what they've normally been doing. So hence he used the word massive. He said they are being considered once again as these small group infiltration efforts of two or three men running forward and trying to survive under drone fire. They've been unsuccessful around Lyman, so that hence they're using more vehicles up there, apparently. Also, a spokesperson for Ukrainian Brigade operating near Sloviansk said that Russian forces have been probing defenses there for future, well, almost certainly future offensive operations east of Sloviansk in particular, this individual was citing the better weather. That means that drones can fly more easily and the ground is a bit harder for vehicles if they want to use them. All in all, not a lot of movement, no great shift in the line at all. Certainly not worth the 1,210 Russian casualties that Ukraine's General Staff said it cost them yesterday. However, it is worth noting that the distances from the lines to some of the cities in the fortress belt are very short, as we know our friend Fabrice and Deprez, who now writes for the Financial Times, but he's well worth a follow on Twitter. He says that while all this is true, that is that the lines aren't shifting very much. While all this is true, it is also the case that Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are still lively cities that more than 100,000 people call home. And Russia only needs to advance a couple more kilometers to make them unlivable. Bringing them into artillery range, I think it means there, he said. There's a point where a city stops being a city and becomes a battlefield. For Pokrovsk, that was around October 2024. Kramatorsk and Sloviansk aren't there, Febreze says, but it seems almost inevitable. Now, I might challenge is almost inevitable, but the point is that you don't need to have the Russian line through your city for it to become unlivable. If you know, if you're in drone and artillery and mortar range, then it's, you know, it's Unviable. Basically, that's us up to date on the military front.
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Francis Darnley
Well, thanks. Before we go into the diplomatic realm, because there's a lot going on there, I have to ask about your trip to Dusseldorf. That's where you've been the last couple of days, I assume. Not scouting out venues for Oktoberfest is a bit early for that, but interested in where you were and what you've gone up to.
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Dominic Nichols
I did manage to find a beer hall. I was just looking for something to eat and as soon as you arrived,
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Francis Darnley
you just fell into one.
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Dominic Nichols
Heaven and Hell Immolant Ard.
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Francis Darnley
It's very Gert.
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Dominic Nichols
Heaven and Hell.
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Francis Darnley
Right.
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Dominic Nichols
Anyway, had some very nice Schwarzer beer in there. That's by the by. Yeah. So I was there for Exponential Europe, which is the world's biggest autonomous systems trade fair. Not just AI and not Miltech, but specifically autonomous systems. So big old trade fair, loads of tech and gizzards and all that kind of stuff. You know, you walk around the stuff just baffles me. And you've got all these quadrupeds, these dogs basically, that are hopping around and sitting up and begging and rolling over. And I look at all this and people are just lapping up and I think, we've got dogs to do that. You don't need to build a robot. So a lot of it is sort of glitz and glamour and I just think, okay, but what's the. What's the military effect you're going to have? What's the capability that you're. You're designing, other than just, you know, producing a metal dog? But anyway, I was there to moderate a few panels at the event and then wander around the trade fair. I met some very interesting people. So there was interesting. One American delegate said to me, he was talking about Ukraine and the war and he said, the archive of battlefield data, the repository, if you like, that they've built up over the last few years, has immense value for training other systems and exporting. So he says it's not only. There hasn't been this body of data throughout history. So they are sitting on a. On a gold mine. They can use that obviously for them for their own capability development, but they could sell it. They could use that as a training platform for others. Should they? Should they wish. I then went and met the brave one folk. Now, brave one, if you remember, is the Ukrainian government arm's length body that brings together the government with tech and the military and industry to bring forward capability development and short circuit that what would Otherwise be a quite long and turgid, or could easily be a long and turgid procurement cycle. It's back to the good old skunk works. Move fast, break things, fail, fail fast, fail better just, you know, see what works and, and what have you. And these guys are interesting. I was speaking to them about drones in particular, and they say that they are moving from the current model of one to one. So one pilot to one. One drone. Drone takes off either fiber optic or other controlled by a pilot. Now we've talked at length about the, the technology where the technology is for the actual air vehicle and the command and control systems and all this, this kind of thing. But ultimately you're still a one to one ratio. You've got one pilot for one drone. They are moving beyond that, they are trying to move or they think they're on the cusp of one to many. So you'd have drones that could launch themselves. I know, let's say 10. And they can all look after themselves. So maneuver through an area. If you know that there's some Russian air defense over there or some Russians over there, they could maneuver to get around that and then only be taken back under command by the pilot at the business end of things, if you like. So that, that model of one to many is where they think they are. Just on the edge of where they want to get is zero to many. So complete autonomy. They want to have autonomous drones that just have a, have a mission and then they could, they can launch themselves or under requests from a, from a Ford unit, for example, and then go and do their, do their thing. So what that model might look like is so at the moment you've got these forward observation posts or you've got, you know, troops out in the field who can see stuff coming towards them with a range of different radars. So you've got radars that can say there's something coming towards the country. You've got other radars that can say it's definitely coming towards our sector. Then you've got other radars that can say, yeah, it's definitely coming to our sector. And I can see it in space down to sort of 1,1 meter. So I can, I can hit it. And at that point, when it's down to an individual saying that drone, I've got such good fidelity on where that drone is and where it's going that it's targetable. At that point, the drone, the interceptor will be launched, go and attack it. Now, at the moment it's a little bit done on voice, as in launch the drone now and they'll take it under control later. They're just on the cusp of it being not automatic, but because of Delta, the battlefield management system that we've spoken of before, the drone base will be getting the same feed as the people at the front. So they will then decide right now's the time to launch, launch the interceptor. Because our battle space management is so good, so accurate, we know that we can launch now rather than waste the kit. So we know it's, now's the time to, to launch it. Where they're trying to get to is beyond that. So the drones will then launch themselves when they know that it's the, it's the optimum time to launch and then they will know what they're going for. Now the pilot might take control as at the moment, pilot takes control in the last few hundred meters. So drone, drone flies off and then the pilot takes control and steers into the oncoming munition. But they are looking to get beyond that and have full autonomy where the drone decides what to hit. That of course is hugely contentious because allowing a machine to decide what to go and kill is arguably the stuff of Hollywood. And so they're saying, well, that's where you have to be really careful. If you just assign, you could just assign a kill box, you could say, we friendly forces, we know that none of our people are in that sort of two by two kilometer box over there. So off you go droney. If you, if you get the indication that something's coming that way, just head over there and go and kill anything, anything that looks like another drone because we know none of ours are in there. Anything that looks like a human, because we know none of our humans are in there or vehicle, etc. Etc. It can be pre, pre programmed. That obviously is a, is quite a big step, but that's kind of where they're, where they're trying to get to. So a lot of, a lot of interesting conversation with, with Brave One about all this kind of stuff. I was hanging on to their ankles after about sentence three, as you can imagine. I was trying to use the, looking for the salt and pepper pots to say, right, this is me and that's you. And anyway, I think I've got there just about. They said some other stuff as well. Interestingly. They said there's a, there's. In their experience, a lot of Western companies don't take part in trials with them for fear that their kit won't, won't perform quite as good as the brochure says, that would obviously impact sales, investment and, or sort of share price. Now they were very discreet, they didn't name and shame any companies. But they said they had containers full of western donated drones that were out of date by the time they got there. They're just so far behind the, behind the curve. They are moving on, they say, to more mature relationships built around having to sign non disclosure agreements and what have you. But they are getting some firms, some western firms that are now partnering, we've heard about these joint venture arrangements, partnering with them to go and use it, make it, break it, all the rest of it, work out what's going wrong, tell us why it's not working, we'll fix it and then make it better. And if it is part of a joint venture then there's hopefully some sort of funding mechanism behind it to be able to lay a big contract. The upshot of that was that these relationships are maturing. But I would just say beware if you go to these trade fairs, beware of all these lovely glossy brochures where this drone says it's, it's been battle tested. It's like, yeah, it might have been battle tested, it might have been found to be rubbish. One final one for me. So brave one again they said that they'd sent a team, quite a few people to the Gulf to help out with the air defence there to teach counter drone operations. And they said that it was all going to, all going well, but as soon as they took their people out the whole capability just fell over. Because as we've said many, many times before, to have a military capability it is more than just the kit. The kit is just one part of it. You need to develop the whole system, you know, the whole defense lines of development as I, as I seem to remember from, from the army days. But you need this integrated ecosystem, correctly trained people and correctly people who know how to manage this. And you need a system, a system of alert to tell you that something's coming. You need a system to classify, to say, is it a drone, is it a cruise missile, is it one of ours, is it one of theirs? You then need a system to most accurately provide the information quickly for somebody to decide what to do and then direct a force component to do something about it. Now all that is happening via Delta, but you still need to be trained on it. So layered on top of that of course is the trading for all the individuals both flying the things and also commanding this whole, this whole thing. And then the Distributed and delegated decision making in order to prioritize scarce assets. You just want to, as we saw in the early, early hours of the Iran war, you know, firing Patriot missiles all over the place means you run out of them pretty quickly. You need to integrate all your radars, integrate your command and control. There's so much more to it than just saying, there's an interceptor drone. You're right, lads, off you go. And them saying, yeah, fine, we've got it from here, thanks a lot. And then it just, it just falls over. So still quite a long way to go. What that says is that the offer that Ukraine can make to the world as Zelenskyy is pushing, we've seen time and time again, is immense. You know, it is much more than just selling kit. You can buy as many of these interceptor drones as you like and you might be able to fly them very successfully. But unless you know where to fly them and what to do, and if you, if you haven't got many and you need to prioritize which ones to use when, then you, you've not got an effective military capability. So the offer that Ukraine can make and sell and get something back for their own defense, these relationships are going to be built. The potential there is huge. But no, very interesting that the Brave one. Well, I don't even know to call it a company or a quango. Well, I don't know what we'd call it, but the Enterprise, the Brave one Enterprise, it was very, very interesting. And then my head hurt and I went and had a beer.
- [22:26]
Francis Darnley
Well, my head hurts a little bit, but it's, it's fascinating. And actually, one thing that strikes me from what you've just said is when I was at the Landuro conference in Wiesbaden last year, they were talking about the next steps for drone development and particularly AI and autonomy in the way that you've just described. And they're now developing it. So we're seeing huge step forwards made in no time at all. That was about six or seven months ago that I was there. So that just speaks to the accelerated process that you've just been talking about. But we'll get into some more of this with our guest, I imagine very shortly. But let me just talk through some of the big developments in the diplomatic realm in the last 24 hours or so. Two big stories published on the political implications of Iran. The first from the Washington Post is that the Pentagon is considering whether to divert weapons intended for Ukraine via the Pearl Initiative, which Dom spoken about many times to the Middle east instead, as the war in Iran depletes some of the US Military's most critical munitions. Although a final decision to redirect the equipment hasn't yet been made, it's thought they could include air defence interceptor missiles as we've spoken about. That makes sense. Vulnerabilities in America's military capability have been exposed by this conflict and stockpiles have been reduced very significantly. In the first days of the conflict alone, more Patriot missiles were fired than were given to Ukraine over the past four years. And I still think that is the most revealing statistic in many ways when comparing these two conflicts. But as I say, it makes sense, but alarming potentially for Ukraine and its European allies. And we'll continue to keep our ears to the ground on any implications for this for the Pearl Initiative. The other important story is an exclusive from our friends at the Financial Times, who report that Russia is close to completing a phased shipment of drones medicine and food to Iran. According to Western intelligence reports, they claim that senior Iranian and Russian officials began secretly discussing delivering drones days after the Israeli and US Strikes. The processing of deliveries began in early March and was expected to be completed by the end of this month. Now, again, no shocks here, but again, no sign that this is having any consequences in the White House's attitudes towards Russia. Incredibly, Russian lawmakers will meet members of the US Congress and a US Federal government delegation during a two day trip to Washington that came yesterday from the State Department speaking to the Kyiv Independent. The initiative apparently was organized by Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna, who's known for her opposition to US Aid to Ukraine. The visit comes despite sanctions imposed by Washington on Russian legislators following Moscow's invasion. So I don't quite know how they're going to square that circle. The discussions with the Trump administration officials are expected to take place tomorrow, and I had to read this twice, that will take place at the United States Institute of Peace. You couldn't make it up. Now, a junior State Department official will also attend each meeting as a note taker and because Cleo, the muse of history, has a dark sense of humor, as we've said many times. The Russian delegation is headed by Vasyslav Nikonov, deputy chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee and grandson of Soviet Foreign Minister Molotov, remembered most famously for signing the pact with Nazi Germany in 1939, which paved the way for the Second World War and most importantly for our purposes, the division of Eastern Europe. Now, as one would expect, Kremlin spokesman Peskov has welcomed this Planned contact, framing it as a step forward, saying that restoring dialogue between Moscow and Washington is always welcome. Now, I just can't believe that story. And. Extraordinary. Anyway, meanwhile, and I think you'll like this, Dom, Jeff is back in the headlines. Yeah. Who's Jeff? Is what you often get asked, who is Jeff? Well, this is of course, the Joint Expeditionary Force, the military alliance headed by the uk. It's taking place the meeting today in Finland with representatives from all of the countries there. So Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Netherlands, as well as the uk lots of their big wigs, including the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who reiterated that the UK and fellow Jeff members are deeply committed to the NATO alliance coming just 15 minutes, those words after President Trump posted that it had done absolutely nothing to help with the war in Iran. He also talked Starmer about Ukraine a lot, saying whatever Putin may tell himself after four years, the truth is that Russia is not winning, they won't win, and they must stop blocking the path to a just and lasting peace. He also made the announcement that British forces are to be given permission to board sanctioned ships sailing through UK waters. We've seen more instances of European governments intervening in stopping the shadow fleets, but I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on that, Dom, and the status of Jeff at the moment more broadly. I mean, is it fair to say that Jeff never quite realised its potential being an organization that was separate from NATO, separate from the coalition of the willing, which, as we've talked about many times, have members who are more hesitant to act? Jeff has countries that are, I would say, more hawkish, but it's never quite done enough, has it? Or is that fair?
- [27:38]
Dominic Nichols
I wouldn't say it was unfair, but, but Jeff has never actually been asked to do anything. Now, the Joint Expeditionary Force, as you say, 10 nations, the Scandies, the Balts, Denmark, Netherlands, US and Iceland. Okay. As Ben Wallace said, it's the North European beer drinkers who actually turn up on day one. Now, yeah, that, that sounds great, but you know what is day one? Who can call upon it? All members of NATO. So is this NATO's spearhead element? Is it the first part of NATO that can be thrown at a problem? Jeff has recce teams on immediate notice to move. It's got a, it's got a two star headquarters. So General, Major General heading up Jeff, that's on 24 hours notice to move. So it can be thrown as a problem very quickly. And that might be military, it might be humanitarian, might be, I mean, humanitarian can be military, but, you know, it can be thrown at a problem very, very quickly. Now it hasn't got all the enablers that the US brings to NATO, so it's sort of a, like I say, a stepping stone down, if you like, from NATO. But it, but it. Does its speed of response mean that it, it's more usable. It's never actually done anything bar exercising, so we don't actually know and the, and you know, until it, until it's actually asked to go and do something. But because it's seen as a, almost a gateway drug to NATO, it almost can't just go and do its own thing because then there'd be such a weight of expectation on. It's like, right, okay, so you're, you're doing this first and then NATO is going to come and backfill you. Or is this a NATO deployment? So it is in a slightly difficult position. It would be, it's brilliant for like, say, humanitarian response, disaster relief and all the rest of it. It's never actually been asked to do anything militarily yet, so it's a bit unfair to say that it hasn't lived up to its expectations because it's, it sort of hasn't been asked to do anything. It is, you know, a good idea on paper. It came out there used to be the joint rapid reaction force of NATO, which sort of, that, that fell by the wayside through the, the campaigning years in, in Iraq and Afghanistan. So Jeff was a way of sort of restarting that within the construct of NATO, this European problem fixer you could bung very quickly. So that was the genesis of it. It is well, well resourced, albeit on a, on a small scale. But yeah, it's not, it's never actually done anything to judge whether it works or not yet.
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Francis Darnley
I just, I wonder because I remember those conversations that were had by pretty senior figures that were saying, I think it was really before the coalition of the willing was formed, they were looking around saying NATO is impeded. Is there another organization that we can find? In the end, they created the coalition of the willing, but that hasn't done very much either. So I, I suppose it's, it's whether Jeff could one day do more in extremists. But it doesn't, as you say, perhaps we're not judging it by the right frame of reference, as it were, for that.
- [30:16]
Dominic Nichols
Well, yeah, I mean, I think it is time to do something or get off the pot, as our, as our American colleagues might might say. I mean, Jeff's been talked about for ages. There's enough problems in the world right now that surely you can find one that fits. You could throw Jeff at it and say, well, gone there. Let's see, let's see if it works. I mean, I, I've asked repeated British defense secretaries and, and other European military and political figures, is there room for Ukraine in Jeff? Because it's not. There's no mutual defense clause. There's not like Article 5 of NATO that an attack on one is deemed an attack on all. That's not in Jeff's charter. So is there room for Ukraine? If it's a club of like minded, spirited go getters, we shall see. But you know, if that is the case, then, then is why is there not room for Ukraine? But so what if it's just another club that you join that doesn't actually do anything? So I don't know. But I think there are enough problems around about that. Jeff could be tested. We could see how it works. Run up the flagpole and see who shoots at it is another military expression.
- [31:17]
Francis Darnley
Well, we shall see. We better get to our guests. But just a couple of quick stories before then. We discussed yesterday the Russian daytime drone attack which hit a UNESCO World Heritage site in central Lviv. A RAO has now broken out about this, not from the officials appalled around the world at the barbarity of Russia's seemingly indiscriminate attacks on civilian and historic sites, but rather because of their inability to name the culprit. So in a statement UNESCO said. UNESCO is deeply alarmed by the March 24 strikes that hid a building in the area of the Bernardine Monastery within the World Heritage property of Lviv, the ensemble of its historic center. UNESCO recalls that cultural property is protected under the 1954 Hague Convention and the 1972 World Heritage Convention. All parties must safeguard heritage and refrain from any acts harming cultural property. UNESCO stands ready to support the authorities with assessments, protection measures and emergency assistance. Now that phrasing and the lack of any reference to Russia bear in mind a permanent member of the UN Security Council has understandably upset a lot of people today. Though I don't think it's actually surprised
- [32:28]
Dominic Nichols
anyone said all parties. I mean, what more do you want? I mean, all is pretty clear. All parties. Do they need to name Russia? Be helpful if they did, I suppose. But all parties that stinging criticism will have will have the Kremlin quaking.
- [32:42]
Francis Darnley
Yeah, that's one word for it.
- [32:43]
Dominic Nichols
Another, another mauling by the United Nations. It's like being mauled by a dead sheep.
- [32:48]
Francis Darnley
Yeah, quite an image. Anyway, one final story from me. The plot thickens with regard to what's really caused those Internet blackouts in Moscow over the past three weeks. Independent Russian media outlet the Bell, citing sources in the local IT sector, claims the direct to impose that blackout originated actually from the Russian government. So according to the Bell sources, the Scientific and Technical Service Department of the FSB received orders from above to shut down the Internet in response to unspecified security threats. So we imagine that's different from the drones. The source informed the Bell that the FSB gave Internet providers a map marking the areas in Moscow where the Internet should be turned off, but also hinted in every possible way that it wasn't their decision. So I think we should treat that assessment with caution. But it is interesting, if true, amid all the speculation at the time about security threats, as we reported.
- [33:50]
Hayden
Howdy, howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan, fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
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Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Dadd.
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Hayden
And we are currently deep diving Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
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That's right.
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And along the way we'll do character deep dives, magic explainers, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
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Stephen
Newsflash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday and you can find Fantasy fanfellas wherever you get your podcasts.
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Francis Darnley
But let's go now to our guest today, hearing again from long time listen to the podcast and now pretty regular contributor, I think it's fair to say. Dr. Robert Person, non resident Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Robert, welcome back. Always a pleasure to speak to you and usually when we do it's about the state of negotiations and we're going to start there because that is a core area of your expertise. But we're also going to talk a little bit later on about the implications of Iran for US capability and what that also might mean for the US's ability to arm Ukraine via Pearl. But first of all, as I say, negotiations, where are we at the moment?
- [36:43]
Dr. Robert Pearson
Well, let me just first say thanks both to you, Francis and Dom for having me back. It's always wonderful to be with you, even though we are often talking about, you know, somewhat difficult and at times depressing issues. And so I suppose that's an appropriate way to answer your question question, which is to say that the state of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the United States to bring an end to the war basically have stalled. You know, there's been lots of different ways to describe it in the last few weeks, you know, operational pause on hold. But the fact of the matter is since the start of the war in Iran, there hasn't been any significant activity, certainly at the trilateral level between all three parties. But even the bilateral talks between Ukraine and the United States, there's been a little bit of talking going on, but nothing of real significance. That chips away at some of the persistent core barriers to peace that you and I have talked about numerous times now on the pod.
- [37:56]
Francis Darnley
So really nothing has changed as a consequence, despite all of the rhetoric. We're 90% of the way there, 99% of the way there. We've heard these phrases banded around. You don't see any reason to think that, say, Iran, the instances of instability in. In Russia that have been reported have led to any profound strategic shift that would have implications on the. On the negotiations taking place?
- [38:22]
Dr. Robert Pearson
Yeah. So, you know, recent weeks, the. The conflict in Iran really has. Has been sucking up so much of the oxygen. There's very little attention, I think, being paid to the negotiations that were going on previously. That's not to say that the war in Iran hasn't affected the prospects of diplomacy, but the actual act of diplomacy really has been put on hold. Now, to be honest, if I had come on the pod the week before the war in Iran started, as you know from our previous conversations, I would have been skeptical that they were anywhere near resolution at that point either. And this whole idea of 90% of the way there, 99%, pick whatever number you want. I've always been skeptical of those pronouncements because, as I see it, the underlying core issues that first motivated Russia to launch its war and that Putin has continued to pursue, those haven't been resolved. And I've seen no evidence that Putin is willing to back off of his maximalist demands. One of the things that we've often talked about, I've always argued that this war was fundamentally not about territory. Putin's original objectives in launching the war really was targeted on Ukrainian sovereignty and Ukrainian statehood and the existence of Ukraine as an independent, democratic country that can make its own foreign and domestic policy decisions. That was always what Putin was going after, whether he was trying to decapitate the government in the first three days of his little special military operation. And ever since then, I think that's been what has been driving him. And so with that in mind, I actually see the territorial question not as the really hard nut to crack, but it's actually the security guarantees, because any security guarantees that the United States, that Europe, that NATO extend to Ukraine means that Putin will not have that uncontested control over Ukraine. He will not be the puppet master. And that's fundamentally unacceptable to him. And so, yes, there can be talks about what the United States and Ukraine can agree to on security guarantees. There can be talks about how NATO and Europe fit into that. But at the end of the day, I don't see Putin accepting any of that or anything less than his maximalist demands. So that is sort of my eternal pessimistic assessment of how close we are to peace negotiations. But as I said, I think there are some significant implications for the war in Iran that do still affect at least the more medium and long term prospects of bringing the Ukraine war to a diplomatic end. So just to throw out a few of the forces or variables that have been on my mind, ultimately, any sides willingness to continue fighting, sort of, generally speaking, is going to be shaped by their expectations about what future fighting will look like. That sort of rationalist calculation, do I expect to have the upper hand in the long run? Do I expect it to win? And so there's a lot of things that have been happening lately affected by Iran that I think affect Russia's calculation on that question. So obviously the spike in energy prices as a result of the war in Iran is huge. We know, you know, from your excellent reporting that, you know, the Russian economy was really starting to show some significant strain in the last several months. Maybe not on the point of collapse, but to the point where for perhaps the first time in four years, Putin was really going to have to start making some hard choices and trade offs the Russian budget. I think the 2006 budget balances at $59 per barrel of oil. And before February, before the Iran war started, oil was trading well below that level. I checked this morning before coming on the pod and I think Urals is trading today at $93 a barrel. And so obviously that will provide a significant budgetary boost to Russia and its war machine for as long as energy supplies are restricted in the Middle East. So that's going to be a significant factor that I think in Putin's head he'll see that and think that I can continue to outlast, I can keep fighting this, because I think he probably understands the reality, which is that energy prices are going to remain high. Even if, if the fighting in the Middle east ended tomorrow, it will still take significant time to bring supplies back online and bring those prices down. So that's a real boon for Putin. That makes him more willing to continue fighting, less likely to seek any kind of compromise. The other big piece that I know you guys have been tracking again is the issue of, of Patriot missile and other air defenses that are going to Ukraine. Again, we know that Ukraine has struggled to get the Patriot interceptors that it needs. And the first few weeks of the war in Iran really have highlighted just how serious an issue that is. So, you know, in this respect, I'll recommend a really excellent piece that was recently published by some of my colleagues at FPRI, just looking at the munitions fired in the first 96 hours of the war. So by their calculations, the United States fired 325 Patriot missiles. That represents 13% of our stock of those munitions. Our Middle Eastern allies fired 618 Patriot missiles, which is about 15.5% of their stocks. So that totaled up to 943 rounds in just about 96 hours. To put that into perspective, and the statistic that really just blows me away, that what we fired and our allies fired in Patriot interceptors In the first 96 hours of the war in Iran, that represents 18 months of patriot missile production from the single production line that's run by Lockheed and Boeing. 18 months worth of production that was fired in four days. Now, right now, the capacity of that production line runs at about 50 interceptors per month. Now, obviously the intensity of that fighting has not continued at that same pace, but it really does give one pause to think about what this means, not just for the actions in the Middle east where we're firing Patriot missiles that cost millions and millions of dollars against drones that are as cheap as 1000 bucks. But it obviously has significant implications for Ukraine because now we're reading that story that you cited from the Washington Post that they're actively considering diverting Patriot output from the Pearl Initiative that supports Ukraine to the Middle East. And then of course, there are significant implications for, you know, for all of us, you know, for defending the American homeland, for defending Europe, all the countries around the world, our allies in Asia that also are in line to buy Patriot interceptors. And so that obviously has incredible strategic ramifications. But again, that's also a statistic that surely Putin is aware of as he launches, as he did just what, a couple nights ago, the largest barrage of drones and missiles of the entire war.
- [47:15]
Francis Darnley
Well, thank you very much, Robert, for that very enlightening and fascinating insight. I've got to ask, when, Dom, you've been saying for a very, very long time that the west is not prepared for a larger scale conflict, what's your reaction to what Robert's just said in terms of some of the statistics out of Iran?
- [47:32]
Dominic Nichols
We've spoken about this staggering number and what it says about where your priorities are. And also, I mean, if they should have learned from the opening days of the full scale invasion that just getting overexcited and firing this stuff all over the place. Unless each of those Patriot missiles were for a specific target. I mean, that's not how you manage your inventory. If they were doubling up or trebling up, I've seen some reports that three, three Patriots fired for a single contact coming at them. I mean, okay, there's, you want to make sure, but at this kind of cost and the, and the delivery time scale, as Robert says, I mean, that's not, that's not a clever way of, of doing it because people seem to get so overexcited and yet you would have thought that they'd have got over this hump and seen the effect that if you are not careful with your inventory, you can very, very quickly wear it down. Pretty depressing, really.
- [48:22]
Francis Darnley
Yeah. Robert, I have to ask the broader strategic implications of this for the United States. You're very plugged into to Washington think tanks and the reaction to what's going on in Iran. I don't mean in a political sense. I mean just purely in an assessment on a military level. I mean, China will be watching this and thinking about the implications for if ever there were any war breaking out in the Pacific over Taiwan. I mean, what kind of lessons will Washington take from this and will Beijing take from this?
- [48:51]
Dr. Robert Pearson
Right. Well, you know, obviously the whole world is watching and perhaps none more intently than the Chinese. And so, you know, I don't have good connections in Beijing, I don't claim to be a China expert, but just as someone with a brain, it's not hard to imagine that they're watching this very intently. And they too are aware of the munitions limitations, the logistical limitations, and the challenges certainly that any country might face in the case of major conflict. And so, so if they're watching, they are both observing our vulnerabilities, but also it remains to be seen, do they have the strategic awareness to then think about their own vulnerabilities, what that means for them. As you noted, I probably do have a better handle on some of the strategic implications for the United States. And again, here we can only hope that policymakers, military leaders are actively studying and learning the right lessons. I think a very significant one here is the lesson that Ukraine actually can be a very significant contributor to Western security. It's been this fascinating evolution. If you think back across the course of the conflict, early on, even before the full scale invasion, Zelensky Ukraine would often say, hey, listen, we are experts in Russian hybrid Warfare, because we've been the subject of that for years and years. We have this expertise and we can contribute that to Western security, to NATO. There was often sort of this patronizing reaction to Ukrainian offers of assistance, expertise. You know, bless your little hearts, you know, you go off and play and let daddy worry about, you know, about the grown up, up things. Even in the early days and the first couple of years of the full scale invasion, again, the Ukrainians have been very open and vocal about sharing their experiences on the battlefield as really being the one country in the world with the most experience in high intensity conflict against a great power of offering that expertise. And I will say that, that NATO allied countries and the United States both sort of in the policy world and in military circles, have actively sought to learn lessons from Ukraine, both by observing what's going on there, but also interacting and partnering with our Ukrainian partners to derive some of those lessons. And so that's been a significant to step forward. I think the moment we're at could potentially really be a turning point because when Ukraine offered its expertise and its assistance and actual counter drone technology to Middle Eastern countries and to the United States and when those offers of assistance were accepted, did. It's not just about sort of learning from Ukrainian experience. It's not just sort of sitting with your notebook and jotting down lessons learned. This is a moment when Ukraine really proved and demonstrated that it could be a very real and concrete and meaningful security contributor. It has the experience, the expertise, the innovation, the technology in the output to provide for collective defense. And so that could be a huge strategic turning point for Ukraine if it's reciprocated, if Ukraine is recognized as such by allies, and if they are willing to then support Ukraine's industry and its defenses. So will it be enough? Will, will that kind of assistance come soon enough? And is it enough to turn probably the head of the individual who matters most here, and that's Donald Trump. You know, will he see that, yes, Ukraine actually can be a very valuable asset and is worth supporting? You know, obviously his attitudes towards Ukraine and Zelensky are well known. But you know, certainly as one who does support the Ukrainian cause, I do hope that all of the allies of the west will recognize the potential that Ukraine really can bring to our collective defense. In an era that just feels like it's starting to shake apart at the seams and come off the rails, we will need every bit of assistance, every bit of expertise and every bit of allied support I think that we can get in the coming decades.
- [54:15]
Dominic Nichols
Hi Robert, it's Dom here. Thanks so much for joining us today. I think your comments about Ukraine feeling a little patronized. I think there'll be many people in the Republic of Moldova right now who would echo those comments about political subversion and electoral interference. When we speak to folk out there, they've got a lot they can offer about how Russia has been trying to undermine their, their, their political and electoral process. And, and they, they're not massively listened to anyways, by the by, on negotiations, if we think that there's a lot of going through the motions here in order to appease Trump from both sides, to show that they're really, they're really, you know, meaningfully engaging here. But from the Ukrainian side, if, if that is correct, if Ukraine are turning up and saying the right things and not overly, no, not committing to too much, but just try and keep Donald Trump on side, how much longer do you think they need to keep up that pretense? If it's very clear that Donald Trump doesn't actually care? Do you think there's going to come a point where Ukraine just don't bother with negotiations, or is that just too big a step?
- [55:19]
Dr. Robert Pearson
Yeah, that's a great question. My crystal ball is a little bit hazy these days. I'm not close with the president. We don't chat about these things. And so I, I obviously can't predict what's going on in his head at any given moment. But I think you probably hit it on the nail with your last comment, which is to say that Ukraine recognizes that they need to stay in President Trump's good graces for diplomatic support, political support, and if only for America's blessing to allow European countries to buy weapons through the Pearl initiative. They can't totally ignore that. So in the meantime, on the diplomatic front, I think Zelenskyy's game, which he's pretty good at playing, is to continue to emphasize Ukraine's willingness to negotiate in good faith and the willingness to engage, even if he perhaps doesn't see it going anywhere at the same time. And in the meantime, it's not a surprise that they continue to develop their own capabilities and sort of push the envelope with the type of operations and weaponry that they're able to do. At the end of the day, I think one of the most powerful things that Ukraine has to sort of defend against in the information sphere is this narrative that Russian victory is inevitable. And I get very nervous now that the news cycle is turning to the spring offensive. You know, we've been here so many times before. We know that the intensity of Russian activities is going to increase and we know that there's this tendency to sort of seed the narrative with these Kremlin talking points, points of major gains, Ukrainian losses and this inevitability that Ukraine can't hang on forever. Now, your guys, excellent reporting from the last year, I think has underscored the point that that narrative was very much present and very powerful in a lot of media discourse here in the United States and in the West. But it actually doesn't really match reality. And the actual territorial gain that Russia made at staggering losses was really not that significant. So in the narrative game, which we know is very important, you know, to President Trump, he sort of sometimes latches on to particular framings of issues. If Ukraine in the spring and in the coming year is really able to demonstrate very vividly in its own defenses and its own counter, counter offensive operations and its long strikes, the Russians are not making significant progress, I think that could garner a little bit more attention and respect, you know, from the Trump administration as they relate to the negotiations.
- [58:26]
Francis Darnley
Well, Robert, thank you so much for your time today. Always fascinating to talk to you and I'm sure we will hear from you again as things continue to evolve with it relating to negotiations or the way and Iran and its implications for the United States and beyond. So thank you for your time. That's all we've got time for today, everybody. Thank you. Wherever you're tuning in from around the world, we'll be back same time, same place tomorrow. Goodbye for now. Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest there's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepod. We continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the latest was Today produced by Phil Atkins. Executive producers are Francis Durnley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
- [60:08]
Adam Grant
My name is David Knowles.
- [60:09]
Dominic Nichols
Thank you all for listening.
- [60:11]
Francis Darnley
Goodbye. Foreign.
- [60:23]
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- [61:17]
Hayden
Howdy, howdy ho, and welcome to Fantasy Fan Fellas. I'm Hayden, producer of the Fantasy Fangirls podcast and your resident lover of all things Sanderson.
- [61:25]
Stephen
And I'm Stephen, your bookish Internet goofball. But you can call me the Smash Daddy.
- [61:29]
Hayden
And we are currently deep diving Brandon Sanderson's fantasy epic Mistborn. But here's the catch. Steven here has not read Mistborn before.
- [61:37]
Stephen
That's right. Hei hei. So each week you'll get my unfiltered raw reactions to every single.
- [61:43]
Hayden
And along the way, we'll do character deep dives, magic explainers, and Steven will even try to guess what's next. Spoiler alert. He'll be wrong.
- [61:50]
Stephen
News flash. I'm never wrong. Episodes come out every Wednesday, and you can find Fantasy Fan fellows wherever you get your podcasts.
- [61:57]
Adam Grant
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