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David Knowles
Foreign.
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Adelie Pojman Ponte
I'm Adelie Pojman Ponte and this is Ukraine. The latest today, as Ukraine continues its strikes on Russian oil terminals on the Baltic Sea, we explore how Russia, oil exports and economy are benefiting from the war in Iran. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy is in Saudi Arabia looking to strengthen defense cooperation in the Middle East. And finally, we bring you several updates on the occupied territories.
David Knowles
Bravery takes you through the unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
The Russia does not want peace.
David Knowles
If I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day. 24 hours. We are with you. Not just today or tomorrow, but for 100 years. Nobody's going to break us. We are strong. We are Ukrainians.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
It's Friday the 27th of March, four years and 31 days since the full scale invasion began. Today I'm joined by my colleague Dom Nichols, Associate editor for defence, and Dr. Jade McGlynn from King's College London. But first, over to Dom for the military updates.
David Knowles
Thanks, Adli. So Ukraine's strikes against Russian oil terminals in the St. Petersburg area have continued for a fourth night. Drones reportedly hitting the oil terminals in the port cities of us, Luga and Primor. So it was all in Russia's Leningrad Oblast. This comes from, well, numerous places, but Russian telegram media channels amongst many others. So in the early hours of today, local residents reporting explosions in the area of all these oil terminals. They're located just off the Baltic Sea. Russian officials had earlier warned of drone attacks expected in the region. They turn out to be correct. There are many photos and videos posted on social media showing flames coming from the Ustluga terminal, which as you'll remember from earlier the week, is one of Russia's largest ports on the Baltic Sea, a major hub for exporting crude oil and other petroleum products. Primorsk, just a little bit to the north, handles around 60 million tons of oil annually. It's Russia's main export oil hub on the Baltic Sea. Now, as I say, that's the fourth night in a row that these facilities and similar facilities, some slightly to the east, but fourth night in the row the oil terminals and oil facilities have been hit. Got to wonder why they are getting through. What is it about Russian air defence that is missing? Or has Ukraine found a gap in air defence that they are exploiting? Perhaps this is the culmination of these months long Ukrainian effort to erode air defence. So systematically going after the radars and the missile batteries and what have you. So maybe they've been punching a hole for a number of months and this is the expected outturn from it. So they finally got through. Who knows, but I'm sure they'll be eagerly watching the sky tonight. Now, Russia says it shot down 85 Ukrainian drones over Leningrad Oblast and also neighboring Vologka Oblast, that's just to the east as well as over the Black Sea. And again, we've got no way of verifying those figures. But if they say they shot down 85. You can be pretty sure that some others got through. Well, certainly something did because they all exploded. Explosions also reported in the city of cherubavec, that's about 250ks to the east of St Petersburg. Local residents there said drones were targeting the Apatit chemical plant, that's part of Fosagros industrial complex, Vologda Oblast. Governor Georgy Philomenov confirmed the strike on an unnamed industrial site in the city, but said there was no damage to the critical infrastructure and no casualties. Now on the ground in Ukraine, no significant moves to the lines, but a lot of activity, a lot of violence. Let's start off in the northeast. So the Vovchansk area haven't talked about it for a long time. Vovchansk is that lodgment just north of Kharkiv city. Russia pushed over the border 18 months ago. Now I can't remember exactly, but they've been sitting there doing not a lot ever since and neither has Ukraine been able to reject them to be fair. But that has not done much at all. Well, Ukraine seems to have pushed into the southwest of the city. There's a notable thrust there. Whether or not that's a precursor to something else we will see. But yeah, worth noting because we haven't actually looked at that area for a long time. This comes from geolocated footage published yesterday cited by the Institute for the Study of of War. Now go further southeast from there. And Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force spokesperson Colonel Viktor Dreborov said yesterday that the remaining Russian troops, thought to be fewer than 50 in Kupyansk, are said to be in the basement of one of the city or ruined hospitals, one of the city's hospitals. I mean again we've talked about Kupyansk for a while. The last surviving elements of the Russian forces in there, which is thought to number in the very, very low tens, but yeah, they now seem to be in the city. Interesting that they are still there. Interesting that Russians particularly Sergei Lavrov seems to be claiming that they own the city, but also interesting that Ukraine hasn't been able to winkle them out. But that is the nature of urban combat. Now go slightly further south into the Donbas. And a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Brigade operating in the vicinity of Lyman said that Russian forces there are deploying fresh infantry into the front line and last week they'd conducted an attack where infantry were were in and supported by armoured fighting vehicles and they were escorted by first person view drones. So in micro terms if you like, a combined arms effort. So the drones were there to try and intercept any Ukrainian drones. The bombers coming to have a go at the armoured fighting vehicles didn't work. They didn't get through. It was an unsuccessful attack. But interesting to see the evolution of these assaults to try and get some kind of manoeuvre going again. But as they didn't work now just to the south of there. So between Lyman and Sloviansk, footage has emerged of a Russian strike on a dam along the Siversky Donetsk Donbas Canal that took place on Monday. Now, authorities say that the first and second stage pumping station reservoirs of the Siversky Donetsk Donbas water Canal have only about two weeks of water reserves left after Russian forces hit a dam near Rhedorok, just northeast of Sloviansk on Monday with two aerial bombs. So all part of the, we think the shaping of the battlefield as part of the spring offensive. Again, that that hasn't yet worked. The dam is still standing. But we know from earlier experience that they do try and use water and the environment as a weapon. So keep your eye on the dam there near Sloviansk now, then still heading a little bit south of there. An Ukrainian 11th Army Corps spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Zaporizh speaking yesterday, said that Russian forces are actively advancing towards Sloviansk. Now that obviously is near the top of the fortress, Bel Sloviansk and Lyman right up there at the top of the fortress belt. He said that they're attacking seven or eight times a day and they've increased the rate of artillery strikes. Again, artillery not heard a huge amount of it recently because it's all drones. Artillery is still there, tubed and barrel artillery. And they seem to be trying to increase the number of artillery strikes. Now, we are told that in that area, Ukraine currently holds the high ground from which they're able to operate drones to see the potential Russian advances and interdict them as they try and cross the low ground. But again, another area of very high activity. Now let's keep going southwest. Let's go down into the Dnipropetrovsk Zaporizhzhia areas. Ukrainian forces say they've liberated nine settlements in this area, kind of near Oleksandriivka, and they say they've killed just over 2,600 Russian troops over the last couple of months. Ukraine's Air Assault Forces command said yesterday they're reporting this operation that they say has gone on for a couple of months. They say Ukrainian forces have regained 400, 240 square kilometers of territory, liberating seven settlements in Dnipro Petrosp and two in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Now, we have reported those numbers. They haven't moved massively in the last few days. But they're saying this is the Air Assault Forces Command. They're saying Russia's spring offensive began on January 29th. Very specific. And they say since then, Russia has lost. I'll just read these numbers exactly. They say Russia's lost 3,676 personnel just in that sector alone, including 2,653 killed, 1023 wounded and 11 captured. Now, I read them out specifically like that because look at the ratios. I mean, you normally have far higher number of wounded to killed because most people survive small arms fire and artillery and what have you, but they are wounded. That ratio is completely turned on its head there. 2,600 ish killed, 1,000 wounded. I mean, that's totally the other way around. And I think that speaks of the amount of drones that are being used here because as we unfortunately see, as we have, we look at all this footage to make sure we know what we're talking about. If you get hit by a drone, you don't come out of it wounded. It is pretty binary. It's a one or a zero and you're hit by a drone and it ends up as a zero. Equally, 11 captured. That again speaks of. It's just not the mixing of forces. In normal war, when two armed forces mix, the opportunity to take prisoners of war is much greater. Well, that's just not happening here. I don't think the forces are meeting. I think they're getting hit by drones before they get anywhere near each other. Hence so few actually do come to meet to the other side. I think think it's. It's drones doing all the work here, or the majority of the work. I'll just point to some comments though, by Emil Kastelmy, who's a military analyst with the Finland based Blackbird Group. He was speaking to the Kyiv Independent. He said that he thinks Ukraine's momentum is gone. Remember this knitting together, this series of counter attacks? Well, he says the momentum is gone. He says it doesn't really seem that the Ukrainians have made much progress beyond what they achieved in February and early March. As I say, this figure of 440 square kilometers liberated we have mentioned before. So perhaps the potential benefits of this Starlink cut off and the other things that we've spoken about that allowed Ukraine to make that push and reclaim territory down there in the southwest. Maybe that's coming to an end now. Just finally further southwest there are counterattacks from which Ukraine's taken back some minor pieces of land. There is geolocated footage from Zaporizhzhia Oblast as well as sighting from Russian sources that say Ukraine has regained ground in the Primorsk and the Stepohirsk area. That's just south of Zaporizhzhia city. That was the area when we were in Ukraine three weeks ago in the ops room in Zaporizhzhia city. These were the areas in Primorsk and Sipahursk. This is what we were looking at. So it's that area there where Ukraine has taken back some land across country. Yesterday, 93 of 102 drones brought down by Ukraine. However it did leave one person dead and 13 injured across the country. The person killed was in, in the eastern Donetsk region. There was a 90 year old woman injured in Kharkiv oblast for no reason whatsoever and a 53 year old man injured in his civilian car that was hit by a drone in Herzon city. There are suggestions, supported by footage I've seen recently that the so called drone safari is Russian drone pilots practicing on civilians before then going elsewhere. Some of the footage is just so blatant when they are attacking civilian vehicles, dogs, things like this. I mean it's just, it's, it's sickening to watch A couple more for me, but just looking slightly wider. Interesting news out of the Ukrainian delegation's visit to Saudi Arabia today. So President Zelenskyy said in the last few hours, he said, we've reached an important agreement between the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defence of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on defence cooperation. It lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation and investment. It also strengthens Ukraine's international role as a security donor. We are ready to share our expertise, he says, and systems with Saudi Arabia and to work together to strengthen the protection of lives. Now into the fifth year, Ukrainians are resisting the same kind of terrorist attacks. This is quite clever, sort of knitting them together. The same kind of terrorist attacks, ballistic missiles and drones that the Iranian regime is currently carrying out in the Middle east and the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia also has capabilities that are of interest to Ukraine and this cooperation can be mutually beneficial. And I think that last sentence says it all, the whole mutually beneficial bit. So if you look at how Ukraine may view the world right now, look at the United States. They are distant, they are detaching from support of Ukraine. In some places, you might say they are actively hostile to Ukraine at the moment. Europe, Europe is dithering, I think, showing themselves to be unserious defence and security actors at a time when strong leadership is required. The EU seems to be too wedded to its rules about consensus decision making, such that one country, Hungary, is able to hold everything up, the 90 billion loan or the frozen assets or what have you. So at what point does consensus then just become a hindrance? Europe dithering as well. Hence Ukraine turns to the Gulf and Saudi Arabia with deep pockets and a very real, real need right now for the kind of stuff that Ukraine is able to sell anti drone capabilities. So it seems like a lot of Gulf countries, in Saudi Arabia in particular here, their outlook has fundamentally changed and they are willing to talk to Ukraine, say they've got a lot of money they can support, there's a lot of business deals they can do there over the drones and it all adds to the diplomatic heft. So I think that's quite a canny move by Ukraine and just turns to Europe and America and says, well, if you're not going to pony up, we'll go and find people who can help us.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
It's a card well played.
David Knowles
It is, I think, yeah.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Am I right in thinking that Zelenskyy may be the first Western leader to have gone to the Middle east since the beginning of the war in Iran? I think so, yeah.
David Knowles
Can't think of anyone else.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Clever move if that's the case.
David Knowles
Yeah, yeah, it does. It all matters. One last one for me. So here we go. How's this for a headline? The United Kingdom commits 100 million pounds of air defense package for Ukraine to protect cities and critical infrastructure.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
That sounds good.
David Knowles
This sounds good. So this came in a slightly breathless Ministry of Defense press release last night, arrived in my inbox.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
It.
David Knowles
It says the UK will urgently commit an additional 100 million pounds for air defence support to Ukraine, helping to defend the country from Russia's relentless attacks. This looks pretty good, I thought. It goes on. The funding will be rapidly deployed to strengthen Ukraine's air defences, ensuring frontline forces and key national infrastructure are better protected from aerial bombardment.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
No dithering there.
David Knowles
No dithering sounds brilliant. So I'm now looking down to see this 100 million pound air defense stuff. It's going to be rapid, it's urgent. What's in the 100 million quid? I'm sort of reading through the press release. It goes, the UK package comes as Joint Expeditionary Force Leaders met in Helsinki, like, yes, yes, we know that, we talked about it yesterday. You know, I'm sure any moment now they're going to get onto the detail of this 100 million quid, blah, blah, blah. It also follows President Zelensky's visit to London last week. Yes, yes. Why are you still picking that out in a press release that you bung out last night? I mean, I'm still looking for the detail, blah, blah, blah. Then there's some nice morale boosting quotes from Defense Secretary John Healey. They then repeat an old announcement, a 500 million pound air defense package that was announced in February and actually then lists the details that were in that 500 million quid. No detail of what the 100 million
Adelie Pojman Ponte
is and where it comes from.
David Knowles
So yeah, where it comes from, what it's going to do other than it's going to be urgent and rapid and it's going to protect cities and critical infrastructure. So at this point I'm quite annoyed. I've just had to wade through another blooming press release. Doesn't tell me anything. So I rang the MoD and I spoke to the, the spokespeople there and I said, right, what's the score with this 100 million quid then? Air defense all sounds brilliant. What's it going to be spent on? And I said, oh, we can't tell you. I said, well, what do you mean you can't tell me? I mean, you literally say later on in the press release with a 500 million that you announced in February, you list that, you know, a load of different missiles, load of bits and pieces, you list that. So why can't you list what's in the 100 million quid? And also, by the way, if you're going to spend 500 million in February, then why an extra 100 million just a month later? I mean, why not put the two. So what's happened? But come to the first question, if you wouldn't mind first of all and tell me what's in the 100 million. Then they said, oh, well, we don't know yet. I said, well, if you don't know what's in it, how can you cost it up at 100 million? Yeah, we'll get back to you, we'll get back to you quick as a flash. They didn't get back to me, so I rang them again just before we came on air and nope, they still haven't come back to me. So mod, please don't put out press releases that you just expect us to lift and drop into tomorrow's Telegraph without any detail. And when I ring you and ask for details, detail, and you say you'll get back to me, please do just give us some detail. Otherwise, I just read all this stuff out on air and you look a little bit silly. And that's us up to date. Adli.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So let's go now to the diplomatic updates and we're going to look at the economic consequences of Ukraine's strikes on oil terminals. How is that impacting Russia's sale of oil and gas, which are so fundamental in financing the war effort? Well, we kind of have to go back to the beginning of the year in order to really understand what's going on because Trump's sanctions have eroded Russia's oil revenue. It has been down 47% compared to 2025. That was at the beginning of the year in January. And that really showed how effective Western sanctions could be because four years into the war, it was still managing to inflict material damage on Russia's economy. In December, the price of the barrel had fallen to roughly $39, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. And for the more recent shipments, for example, to India, which is Russia's biggest, I believe, crude oil buyer, or at least it was before the sanctions in September, it dropped to under $25 a barrel, which barely covers Russia's break even price. So it's really, really low. And as a result of that, then Russia's national deficit had already reached 91% of the 2026 target. So that's pretty bad. But then the war with Iran started. And so what happened? Then the Strait of Hormuz closed and the price of oil skyrocketed across the globe.
David Knowles
Who could have guessed?
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So Ukraine feared, rightfully so.
David Knowles
My granny could have guessed. And she's been dead for 30 years.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Well, maybe we should try and ring her in.
David Knowles
Yeah.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So Ukraine, rightfully so, feared that it could lead to a rapprochement, I've learned to say that word since last time, between the west and Moscow following the result of the energy crisis. And you may rem that the Belgian prime minister at the beginning of February had called for the common sense normalization of relations with Russia in order to, I quote, regain access to cheap energy. That hasn't happened. But the war in Iran is indeed a boon for Russia's economy because Moscow has been earning almost $800 million per day in sales of oil and gas, which is totaling almost $24 billion in March. And on top of that, India is coming back into the picture. So you'll remember that in September, the US had imposed very harsh export tariffs on India to prevent it from buying more Russian oil. So in January, Indian diplomats were negotiating with the US trying to ease those sanctions and those tariffs. And they were willing to do that by slashing their crude oil imports from Russia.
Paige Desorbo
But.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
And that's a big but. Reuters revealed in an exclusive yesterday that New Delhi and Moscow were now doubling down on their energy cooperation. They were resuming direct sales of liquefied natural gas for the very first time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Not the war in Iran, the war in Ukraine. And the agreement also includes an increase in the sale of crude oil to India. And that could basically double India's import of Russian oil within about a month. So where does that leave Ukraine? So between all the strikes of the last four days that we've been reporting on and all of the tankers that have been seized by various countries across the globe and the damage to several pipelines, Ukraine. Ukraine is trying to prevent the oil from actually getting to the customers. This week, as we reported yesterday, it's 40% of the Russian oil export capacity that was halted, which Reuters has called the worst disruption in oil supply in modern Russian history. And that strategy is obviously very important because the higher the global oil price go, the more the Kremlin has room to absorb the wartime costs. But there's also another analysis about this. It's coming from the spectators. It's Alexander Kolyandra, a researcher for the center of European Policy Analysis whose specializes in Russia's economy. He points out that although the logic seems pretty disrupt exports, reduce revenues, constrain the war efforts, there's, according to him, a deep flaw in the strategy. Firstly, because Russia has actually changed its tax system. The federal government no longer taxes oil exports, but oil extraction. That's an important nuance. What that means is that crude oil doesn't need to reach the customer in order for the federal government of Russia, Russia to get money out of it. In 2024, that generated roughly $108 billion. And that was considered a bad year. That is through that special tax that taxes companies at extraction level, not export level. On top of that, Russia is still able to export through pipelines towards Asia. And with the price per barrel skyrocketing over the last months, that means that Russia is extracting more oil than before and therefore getting more revenue intact. Again, federal level. So let me quote the piece. Every $10 rise in the Urals crude price adds roughly $1.5 billion to Russia's monthly extraction revenues at the current extraction rate. I'll leave you with that analysis to ponder. It says Ukraine is in effect further intensifying a global oil supply shock that disproportionately benefits the budget it is trying to deplete. The burden is being shouldered by consumers worldwide paying record fuel prices and by Russian oil companies squeezed between high extraction on the one hand, and constrained export earnings, not by the Kremlin. The Kremlin is not being affected by that squeeze. The analysis continues. The strategy made sense when oil costs $65 a barrel. At $110 a barrel, the arithmetic runs the other way. You'll find the link in the show notes and I'll leave that with you to ponder. Let's move on now to the topic of Ukrainian children that have been forcefully deported to Russia. Yesterday, the US State Department announced that $25 million would be allocated to track and return Ukrainian children that were abducted by Russia. So these 25 millions are meant for identifying, returning and rehabilitating these children and they will go to American non profit organizations. I'm still trying to find out what exactly the detail of that is and what they mean by that. And these organizations will be supporting the Ukrainian government's efforts as well as trusted actors on the ground. So I'm curious to see who gets access to that money and under what conditions, because obviously the lack of funding on the US Side is something we've been reporting on for several months now. Another aspect of the US Policy when it comes to Ukrainian children, as we've reported previously, is the First Lady Melania Trump's efforts to make the cause of Ukrainian children the center of her humanitarian agenda. And it seems that now her mediation efforts, which were announced in the autumn, have brought back about 19 children to Ukraine. Overall, it's really important to keep in mind the numbers and the scale because we're often talking about 20,000 children that have been forcefully taken at the lowest so far, it's only 2,000 children that have come back through various means. That's either government mediation or actors on the ground organizing the logistics for children to be brought back to Ukraine or families going into the occupied territories or Russia to get the children back. So that's about 2,000 children, which is not bad. But it's very, very far from the lowest estimated number of children who are missing. So in that overall picture, Melania Trump in the last five months roughly has brought back 19 children. There was also a new report on that front yesterday published by the Yale Humanitarian research lab. It's calling the Russian state energy companies Gazprom and Rosneft, I quote, the willing accomplices in the deportation of Ukrainian children. The report states with high confidence that at least six camps were about 2,500 children were forcibly transferred were owned by these Russian state actors. It also identifies 44 entities that are linked to the deportation. So they can be either subsidiaries of these state companies or also trade unions. And 80% of them are not currently included in US or European sanctions. And we know how much Europe in particular has been trying to target individuals and organizations in the deportation of these children. And I'm interested to see if there will be new batches of sanctions coming through from various countries or from the European levels based on that report. And finally, before we go to Dr. Jade McGlynn for the regular news on the occupied territories, three updates on the topic. One, the Ukrainian government reported a couple of days ago that Russia is trying to ban people over 60 from calling and receiving calls from outside of the occupied territories. I'm not really sure how you implement that to be fair, but obviously for a lot of people in the occupied territories, a lot of elderly Ukrainians living under occupation, they've not been able to escape because it's cost. It's a difficult and long journey. And if you're not in good health, it's a very, very difficult undertaking. But phone calls is basically the only way they can stay in touch with their families. So I'm not really sure again how you implement that, but that is something that is part of cracking down on the population and severing the links between people living under occupation in the occupied territories to the wider Ukraine or Ukrainians living in the diaspora elsewhere in the world. And that's I think, really key in understanding what it's trying to do to families to keep people from just communicating from one another. Another update is that Russia is auctioning off a gold ore deposit in occupied Luhansk near the town, I believe, of Bobrikivske. It was sold for almost $10 million to the Russian mining firm Polyanka. And according to the auction data, the deposit contains an estimated 1.64 metric tons of gold, which at current market prices could be worth almost $260 million. So that's a lot of money. It's a lot of money towards the Russian war effort as well. And it' only one of the dozen sites that Russia is currently putting up for auction from the occupied territories. Another example is a large lithium deposit in Donetsk Oblastk near the town of Shevchenko. And finally, the last update is an opinion piece published in the Kyiv Independent by Olha Kurishko. She is the permanent representative to the President of Ukraine for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. And she goes deep into the information war waged by Russia in order to kind of convince the international community to recognize Russia's historic right to Crimea and what good it's doing over there. She calls it a vast propaganda arsenal that is implemented through various means. One of them, which I found particularly interesting, was fabricated stories about foreign migrants to Crimea. So what does that look like in practice? Well, for example, that is an alleged German plumber, a Polish electrician, a British taxi driver or a French nanny who are moving to Crimea, employed by locals, trying to paint Russia as a hub of opportunity for the wider West.
David Knowles
Good luck with that.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Would you, if you were to do a career move, would you move to Crimea, Dom?
David Knowles
I'm looking forward to going to Crimea after the. After the war.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Different circumstances. Before we go to Dr. Jade McGlynn for the latest update on the occupied territories, here's a teaser for the first episode of Francis three part series on Hungary as they prepare for that critical election on April 12.
Francis (podcast reporter)
War has come to Europe. Not that you'd know it looking out over Budapest, Hungary's capital. An EU and NATO member state, it borders many nations, including to its east, Ukraine. But despite the war taking place just 250km from this spot, the government here takes a very different view from its neighbors regarding its relations with Moscow.
KPMG Announcer
Starting and waging a war is not a war crime.
David Knowles
This war cannot be won by Ukraine. They are in a worse and worse situation.
Francis (podcast reporter)
It has huge defence ramifications for you.
David Knowles
It's on your border.
Francis (podcast reporter)
But the greater threat, as far as Planet Minister Viktor Orban is concerned, is Brussels. So what's really going on here? Why would a NATO member be apparently more comfortable with Moscow than Brussels? I flew to Budapest to find out more. There, I spoke to leading figures in the Orban government, visited historical sites and took the temperature with ordinary people to better understand how they view the world war at a pivotal moment for Hungary as it fast approaches a tightly contested election on 12 April.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Well, we certainly don't want to miss that, do we?
David Knowles
No, we don't.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
The first episode of the series is dedicated to the country's relationship with Ukraine and Russia, and it releases tonight on the main Telegraph YouTube channel. We'll add a link to the show Notes, make sure to in tune. And now over to Jade. Hi, Jade. It's good to see you again and you. Today we wanted to discuss together an investigation published by Reuters on what's happening in the occupied territories and all of the money that Russia is pouring in to make it New Russia Novorossiya, if I'm understanding this correctly, and all of the infrastructure is building. Do you want to take us through what the investigation shows and what those findings are?
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Sure. So the investigation was interesting. I'm always happy when anybody writes about the occupied territories in some ways, but I did find the article a little bit odd. So it sort of was making out that Russia is pouring a lot of money and investment into the occupied territories. But I probably would have written it a little bit differently, to be honest with you, whilst still being grateful for particularly the satellite imagery, which is interesting. But I would say that it presents Russian investment announcements, I would say maybe a little bit at face value. So it's talking about the different roads and infrastructure projects that are being built and suggesting that, you know, there's now a lot more investment going to the occupied territories. It also claims that maybe the occupied territories might then become profitable and that I went back and looked at my figures and my statistics and I don't really understand how that would happen. So there are three economic zones that were established in 2023, but they do very little to offset the immense costs of annexation. The occupied regions are among the biggest recipients of subsidies from the Russian national budget. They're very far from being economically self sufficient. A lot of the investment that is spoken about, first of all, even by the Kremlin's own numbers, they often announce a certain amount of money and then it gets reduced later on. But even with the investment that does occur, a lot of it is just siphoned off because of course Russian elite lost a lot of assets after the full scale invasion. And the occupied territories has been an area where they've been kind of allowed to exploit and extract from them in recompense. I mean, in terms of the kind of economy. I was just reading blocknut today. So it's a sort of Russian nationalistic news source that's centered around southern Russia and the occupied regions. And it was about, you know, huge numbers of complaints that they're receiving because people including those working for construction companies, just have not received their wages for months and months. And we've heard that, I mean, it's shockingly regular. So like port workers in Berzhansk were unpaid for three months. Coal mine workers in Lysichans, coal mines in Luhansk based enclosure, because there's Just no money. The main focus of the piece is to look at the so called Azov Ring Road. It's an infrastructure project kind of about connecting occupied territories more into Russia and these projects there has recently been an uptick in building which is what the satellite imagery showed but they've been so, so delayed. I mean I've been watching the asphalt ring grid for a long time. They're routinely re announced the satellite, the vessel tracking data as well does confirm, you know, there has been a notable uptick in maritime traffic. But I would just note that considering the amount of reconstruction needed in the occupied territories, all of these volumes still remain far below pre war levels. You know, when Ukraine also obviously was not trying to rebuild these territories because they had not yet been destroyed. So I just find the framing again a little bit odd. And similarly, I mean there isn't really a real economy in the occupied territories. They're more sort of a colony from which to extract resources. And so I suppose whilst I did there were many aspects I thought were useful and thought provoking about the article and it's good to see Reuters covering it. I did feel that in points it completed announce spend with effective economic integration and extraction with development and also that if what we can see across years now is Russia's resource extraction initiatives, they're very much primarily designed to funnel seized Ukrainian assets into Russian controlled networks and the local population sees very little from this. It's unstable work, degraded infrastructure, services that as we know is function very unevenly if we were going to be sort of polite. So I think you know, Russia is very good at generating the appearance of economic activity, whether that's for shell companies, ribbon cutting, budget allocations, investment forums, but and I can see how if you follow that paper trail it might send you in a certain direction. But that gap between announcement and reality which exists across Russia, but I would say in the occupied territories is particularly enormous and something to flag. In fact it interested me because it pointed to some of the things at the moment at King's we are what I am working on setting up an occupied territories insight hub that will host some of the incredible amounts of data that I and some of my kind of collaborators have so that other researchers and of course journalists can use it as well as some of the analysis and policy. But I really want to kind of provide more of this data hopefully so that we can have maybe some of these more informed conversations about the occupied territories and what and how is happening there. Because often the argument is it's very hard to know and that's true to an extent, but of course there is, as always, whenever you want to research what Russia's doing, where there's a will, there's a way. And so we're really looking forward to kind of launching this platform and just having it as a space where people can deal with. With the unfiltered data because there's so much politicization of the topic, inevitably. And I myself, you know, often feel that as well. But this place is designed to be a kind of purely academic endeavor and to just provide you some of the core information that will hopefully make it easier for people for other research. Because I'm. Even if I live 10 lives, I wouldn't be able to get through and analyze all of this data as well. So hopefully it will spark some interesting projects.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
That sounds like a great initiative indeed. What can you share with us about how you gather all of that data on the occupied territories? It's so difficult to have any access to what's going on over there.
Dr. Jade McGlynn
So, of course, there are real limitations on what you can do, and we often discuss that. But a lot of the time, I mean, there is a range of. A range of different elements. I mean, some of the data, a lot of the. And of course, you can't always take it at face value, but it's still useful to have a. The data as primary kind of source. If you're talking about legislation to do with the occupied territories, if you're talking about companies that have been registered, if you're talking about a whole range of things that leave an administrative paper trail, provided you have some basic scraping, coding skills and a good VPN to show that you're in Russia, you can just scrape this information. So that's point one. I mean, in terms of one of the parts of the data collection that I find that most fascinating is we have quite a large collection of methodological manuals, curricula, training manuals, which books are allowed to be taught, which aren't, and they're often published on very small telegram channels. And, you know, it's kind of. We've been sort of collecting them like, like very specific magpies over the years and collating them. Some of the other data is provided, let's say, is given, and that's some of the data where some of that won't be able to be published. Of course, you know, not everything in my possession can go on, not just for reasons of security, but also just for ethical reasons. I mean, there's certain people's names, there's an incredible amount of public information, essentially, provided that you know where to look and you start documenting and keeping it. And provided that you're able to parse it not just in terms of kind of actual technological skills or research skills, but almost pass it in terms of critical thinking as to. I think one of the most important guides I'm going to have to provide to this, maybe in a more simplified form and also in a more detailed form, is how to engage critically with these. What does it mean when they say, what are some flags? When they say xyz, what does that actually mean? Because what I don't want to do is to provide a bunch of history textbooks for the occupied territories about how there is no Ukraine, for everyone to come away and be like, well, there's no Ukraine. So obviously you're going to have to be some sort of responsibility around how the data that's from the occupation itself is provided in terms of the data on, for example, cultural infrastructure. Sometimes it's a combination of using our own sources on the ground and using satellite imagery. Quite a few of the bases are sort of mixed and separately. Of course, it's not just my data. I'm going to be working very closely with the Centre for Occupation Studies, who are very generously going to provide me with a huge amount of their archive. Also been speaking to other researchers who are working on European projects around cultural destruction, who are very keen to get involved, and some of the relocated media sources as well, so media from the occupied territories who've since relocated. So I think everybody kind of who's involved has a shared interest in having this data available and having a more informed conversation around the occupied territories and what's happening there. And of course, a lot of it at the moment is in Russian or Ukrainian. So a question of how to translate that or who wants to pay for somebody to translate that will be a question for later on, but that's not a question for now. For now, our task is just to get it up and start it running.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Yeah. Staggering the resources one after the other. But it's really interesting, the point that you bring up, because it goes back to what you were saying about the investigation, which is whatever comes out of these territories needs to be looked at with a critical eye, because you can't take all of that information at face value, depending on where it's coming from. Right?
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Exactly, exactly. And I think as well, it's quite easy, once you've been doing this for a while, it's quite easy to actually know what things mean. And I think I'M hopeful that I will be able to create. I'm sure, you know, it will only improve over time, but I'm hopeful I'll be able to create a useful guideline of. Just when they say, you know, more investment in X, this actually means we're taking the money for so and so's mistress. But obviously in a more. In a more formal way.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
I know you haven't got loads of time today, Jade, so thanks again for taking time and your busy day to join us. Shall we just wrap it up with the updates from the last fortnight from the occupied territory?
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Yes, thank you. So between the 12th and 25th March 2026, we identified 14 confirmed operations as usual sabotage of RO attacks on military vehicles and damage to kind of logistical or support infrastructure. And another interesting point because it sort of re emerged in the last fortnight as well, is most active regions again, Luhansk Oblast figures. So Luhans Oblast is effectively under total occupation. I think if I wanted. If you want to be very specific, I think it's 99.1%, but yeah, so it's interesting to see things happening there. Crimea and Martin Group were also active. So if in terms of chronology, the first case took place in Sievierodonetsk in Luhansk, that came under occupation in 2022 and that was on the 15th of March. Atesh claimed responsibility for this. So their origins are in the Crimean peninsula, but they operate sort of throughout. And there was the destruction of a transformer that supplies a electricity to a Russian brigade headquarters in Sievierod, Donetsk. The next case was on 17 March near Svatove, which is also in the Luhansk region. And this was reported by Sorok, who don't maybe are not as active sometimes as attes, but often quite clinical precision. And in this case they destroyed a vehicle used by the occupation forces in which it would appear, though I'll be careful with this, we haven't been able to fully confirm this, that the driver and the military escort individual died. And these areas in particular, they're pretty important because they're part of the wider land corridor and military logistics space in the east, you know, for the fighting that is still happening around into Donetsk, but also as well into Kharkiv region and Kupyansk and these parts. So it's a quite specific location. On 18 March there were two separate cases, both in Crimea. The first one was reported by Crimean partisans and was the good old tradition of burning a railway relay cabinet. And the second Incident in Crimea was reported by Atesh and took place near Simferopol and it involved the destruction of a diesel, a locomotive that was supplying apparently to the Zaporizhzhya direction. So of course there are numerous sources, human intelligence sources in the occupied territory territories who pretty much consistently track logistics, whether that's by road or by rail, are going towards the Zaporizhzhia direction. So essentially resupplying Russian forces who are fighting back against the Ukrainian successful Ukrainian counter offensive. In the conditions in this particular case, you know, a locomotive is pretty hard to replace. It's harder than a car, obviously. And you know, rail transport remains, remains pretty central for moving heavy cargo like ammunition, fuel, engineering supplies. And so once again it's part of that pattern that we see this concentration on the rail system and military logistics, which is not just a symbolic target. We kind of see this increasingly strategic approach by the resistance. On 21 March there was an activity by MariupolsProtiv. So this was the burning of a car. But there was a much more interesting act by Mario Prosprotov which technically shouldn't be part of this. Using the methodology, which perhaps I might need to amend in coming months, but also during this period MariupolsProtiv, working with Hur, blew up a data center in Mangush and destroyed it. Now, considering some of the work that is happening in the occupied territories to prepare administration, to prepare bureau bureaucratically and administratively for what looks like a new force conscription move, I mean that's an incredible, that's quite an incredible feat to be, you know, that involves both on the ground and of course quite technical capability inside Free Ukraine. So Mariuposporati, very interesting organization. However, even in this case, when we're just talking, not just, but when we're talking about the burning of a car like these, these attacks matter because they create that sense of everyday insecurity, everyday, you know, kind of low level, low level insurgency. They of course increase the cost of mobility and they show that you have not pacified the area. And the last visible case that I'll talk about took place on the 22nd of March in Sierra Donetsk. So back in Luhansk. And this again was a burning of a military vehicle belonging to a Russian brigade. And it's interesting that Sieberodonetsk is a location with two separate incidences. In this case, after having been relatively quiet for quite a while. There were also in terms of the non violent cases, there were also some, a couple of incidences in Crimea around the 19th or they were reported on the 19th of March. I imagine they happened earlier that showed burning of the Russian flag. But yeah, so there are also these acts of political messaging and identity, but rarer and unnecessarily. So. So on that I will, I will wrap up, but thank you. Thank you.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
You were talking about the attacks on infrastructure and trains and how that's really important to create a sense of insecurity and how the area hasn't been pacified yet. We started this conversation talking about the Reuters investigation, and obviously they're describing how much infrastructure is potentially being built, also in terms of railways and in terms of motorways as well. I mean, these attacks are very effective, but they're also very local. How does it compare the scale of the attacks, which are obviously, you know, from small, small underground organ and very local, and the scale of the plans that Russia has for these occupied territories?
Dr. Jade McGlynn
No, I think it's a good distinction to make, but I think in some ways, if, of course, if we were just purely comparing violent resistance acts and separating that from the broader work of the resistance, 90% of the work of the resistance is human intelligence is providing not just coordinates, but information about what is happening that then feeds into Ukrainian headquarters waters and of course, I am sure is part of, for example, their calculations when they choose places for deep strikes or medium strikes, you know, targets. So, for example, if you have human intelligence on the ground, you know that a factory that is building, let's say important elements or important part of the construction process for this infrastructure is located in, I don't know, let's say somewhere in Luhansk. And then you can provide that information so that they know how to target the factories or the military production sites or the logistics, you know, parts of the logistics supply chain. So I wouldn't see it as just partisans against what Russia can build. I think realistically we're talking about partisans and the information partisans can provide to the Ukrainian state and anybody else, you know, who would like to engage in deeper targeting beyond, beyond the front line. So I think that's. It's a more equal battle than it may at first seem.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Thanks, Jade. I know you've got Tadash, so I don't want to keep you for too long, but is there any final thoughts that you'd like to share with us?
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Just simply that we really should be paying attention? I suppose, to come back to the point and why I overall think that the Reuters article itself, it's really good that it came out because we should be paying attention to what Russia is doing in the occupied territories. It does give us insights into Russia's plans, into viability of negotiations, into Russia's plans for the future. And also I guess what Russia will do if it comes to occupy other countries. Which given the pretty kind of flaccid response from our own country in Britain and from European countries of late, is unfortunately the trajectory we're currently on. There's still, still lots and lots of time and ways to change that trajectory.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Thank you, Jade and we'll see you in a couple of weeks then. Thank you so much.
Dr. Jade McGlynn
Bye bye. Thank you.
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And now onto our final thoughts. Dom, do you want to start?
David Knowles
Yes, thank you. I'd like to say thank you to Barry. Barry wrote in, said, hi guys. When you report that X amount of drones have been intercepted, I'm wondering how and what does the intercepting. Well, there's a whole load of things, Barry, that does the intercepting. So starting on the electronic side if you like, there's first of all there's electronic warfare that interferes with the signal. So if it's just a radio frequency signal, the old remote control drones, if you like, a drone goes off and you control it by just by radio signal, if you can chop that signal or interfere with it in some way, then the drone's either going to fall out of the sky or as we saw in the very early days since the start of the full scale invasion, some drones, if they lose signal so that you don't smash up your nice hobby toy, it's not going to fall out of the sky and obliterate itself. It would go back to where it came from, go back to the launch point. So Ukraine worked out in the first few weeks, if they broke the scene, signal Then the drone would then go back to the launch point and then they just call in an artillery strike on the Russian drone pilots. Things have moved on since then. It's not quite that simple anymore. So after electronic warfare they started bringing in fiber optic control drones which you can't intercept because you can't get into the cable. That's why we've seen just in the very, in recent weeks we've seen these airborne lasers. We think they're more experimental than an actual capability that's fielded widely. These lasers that are literally burning out the fiber optic cable if you, if you hit the laser is just light. So if you hit the ground at a certain angle, it's going to go inside the fiber optic cable and it will burn out the very fragile filament in there. So that's one way of defeating a fiber optic cable controlled drone. And then of course you've got the hard kill option. So you've got like things like air defense missiles like the Patriot that we keep talking about. But a Patriot missile is about $4 million a pop, so you don't want to be banging those around blats. If you're up against a $2,000 drone, you're just going to bankrupt yourself. So what else do you need? It's just a question of getting metal into the sky. So that's why we see these heavy machine guns mounted on vehicles and point defense. They're just sort of on the ground. We've seen these gepards which are German supplied. Gepard is a German capability that was going out of service. It was brought back in since the full scale invasion. It's basically just almost like a tank hull, but it's got two, it's got twin 35 millimeter cannons that just pile a huge amount of shells into the air in a very short space of time just to bring down drones. And then you've got interceptor drones. So the most recent innovation is to have smaller drones that then go and either hit the drones that are coming in to attack you or have an explosive charge in them as well. If you think about it, the drones that are flying along, you don't need to do too much to them to make them tumble out of the sky. That's why we've seen some examples of nets being fired at them. If you can wind up the propeller, it's going to, is going to collapse. Some drones have had shotguns and missiles on them as well, but that's all quite technically demanding. So actually it's just a lot easier to Fly a drone and smash it into the one that's trying to come and attack you. So hence this family of interceptor drones that we're now seeing. And I think it's interceptor drones that are now said to account for 70% of the Shaheds that are being fired by Russia. So interceptor drones seem to be doing a lot of the damage, but essentially it's all about getting as much metal into the air as you possibly can can to bring these things down. Although there is still always a place for electronic warfare as well. But thanks, Barry.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
I have a tangential question.
David Knowles
Go on.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Them. So you talked about the German made Gepard. Am I right in thinking the tanks are the Leopards from the Germans? Are they German as well?
David Knowles
Yep.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So, you know what I would be really curious to read about one day? I would really like to read an analysis on how different countries name their weapons and what it says about them and their relationship to such weapons.
David Knowles
Well, that. That would be a very interesting read. We need to get Hamish onto it immediately. But in this instance, leopard, L, E, O, P, A, R, D. The Gepard is not just replacing the L with a G. Gap art is G, E, P, A, R, D. So different. So I don't think it comes from the same place. I think they're probably cousins. We'd say the hull.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Yeah, but they're two big cats who eat animals, right?
David Knowles
I guess.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
So I'm two big wild cats and that's how much I know about zoology. But yeah, no, I'd be really curious to read about that. What does it say? Storm Shadows, Patriots. The French Caesars. I think I'd love to read about that.
David Knowles
Well, I mean, our big drones, you had Reaper and then you had. What else? You had Predator, and the latest iteration is Protector. Because, you know, it sounds a bit too. A bit too sort of, if you have.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
We don't want too warmongering with missiles.
David Knowles
You want the drone that kills you to have a nice name, basically.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Right. Okay, that wasn't my final thought. My final thought is a little anecdote that I heard on my trip to Latvia at the beginning of the week. And we'll hear more about Latvia in the next few weeks. But I've been speaking some really interesting people, and one anecdote that I heard that I've not actually had time to double check, but I trust the person who told me that, is that if you are arrested in Latvia for driving under the influence and you reach a certain level, level of alcohol in your breath, in your blood, wherever it goes, your car apparently gets seized by the police and sent to Ukraine.
David Knowles
Wow. Oh, yeah. I think I've heard. We've heard things like this. Yeah, that's interesting.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Which I thought was a really interesting development in terms of, you know, police enforcement and also support for not a neighboring country, but a country you're trying to support militarily. If you drink and drive, you might just get your car seized and it might get sent to the front line. And I kind of wonder what they do with the very fancy cars that are probably not helpful. Helpful on the front line. What happens if they seize a Porsche?
David Knowles
You're asking the wrong person. I've never driven a Porsche.
Adelie Pojman Ponte
Neither have I, but yeah. So anyways, if you are in Latvia and you've had your car seized, shoot us an email. We'd love to hear what that was like.
David Knowles
Yeah, I mean, it's an incentive, isn't it?
Adelie Pojman Ponte
All right, well, that's it for us today. Have a good weekend, everyone, and we'll see you all next week. Jack, will you.
David Knowles
Thanks, everyone.
Francis (podcast reporter)
Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles. Every episode featuring us in the studio maps and battlefield footage is now available to watch on our YouTube channel. Subscribe@www.YouTube.com crane the latest there's a link in the description. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the Latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where your listeners from around the world. And finally, to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground, please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month for free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk Ukraine the latest Ukraine the Latest was today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Frances Dernst Stanley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.
David Knowles
My name is David Knowles. Thank you all for listening. Goodbye.
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This episode covers Ukraine’s ongoing strikes against Russian Baltic oil hubs, the liberation of territory and settlements, geopolitical maneuvering by Zelenskyy in the Middle East, and extensive updates on events in the Russian-occupied territories. The hosts—Adelie Pojman Ponte, David Knowles, Dom Nicholls, and guest analyst Dr. Jade McGlynn—deliver in-depth frontline reports, military analysis, energy economics insights, and context on resistance within occupied zones.
[03:46–09:30] Dom Nicholls' Military Updates
Quote:
“Maybe they've been punching a hole for a number of months and this is the expected outturn from it.”
—Dom Nicholls [05:13]
[09:30–15:39]
Quote:
“If you get hit by a drone, you don't come out of it wounded. It's pretty binary.”
—Dom Nicholls [13:40]
[15:39–16:05]
Quotes:
“It’s a card well played.”
—Adelie Pojman Ponte [15:39]
“Clever move if that's the case.”
—Adelie Pojman Ponte [15:51]
[16:05–18:52]
Quote:
“Please don’t put out press releases … without any detail. When I ring you … and you say you’ll get back to me, please do.”
—Dom Nicholls [18:25]
[18:52–26:30] Adelie Pojman Ponte
Quote:
“Ukraine is in effect further intensifying a global oil supply shock that disproportionately benefits the budget it is trying to deplete.”
—Adelie Pojman Ponte [22:54, quoting Alexander Kolyandra]
[26:30–30:00]
[30:00–31:51]
[31:51–49:42] Dr. Jade McGlynn
Quotes:
“Russia is very good at generating the appearance of economic activity … the gap between announcement and reality in the occupied territories is particularly enormous.”
—Dr. Jade McGlynn [36:52]
“90% of the work of the resistance is human intelligence … it’s a more equal battle than it may at first seem.”
—Dr. Jade McGlynn [48:23]
“We should be paying attention to what Russia is doing in the occupied territories … it does give us insights into Russia’s plans … and what Russia will do if it comes to occupy other countries.”
—Dr. Jade McGlynn [49:49]
[51:50–57:32]
Quotes:
“Interceptor drones seem to be doing a lot of the damage, but essentially it’s all about getting as much metal into the air as you possibly can to bring these things down.”
—Dom Nicholls [54:50]
“If you are arrested in Latvia for driving under the influence … your car apparently gets seized by the police and sent to Ukraine.”
—Adelie Pojman Ponte [56:57]
On drone warfare binary casualties:
“If you get hit by a drone, you don’t come out of it wounded. It’s pretty binary.” —Dom Nicholls [13:40]
On Ukraine-Saudi defense cooperation:
“It’s a card well played.” —Adelie Pojman Ponte [15:39]
On Russian economic extraction:
“There isn’t really a real economy in the occupied territories. They're more sort of a colony from which to extract resources.” —Dr. Jade McGlynn [34:33]
On global oil market paradox:
“Ukraine is in effect further intensifying a global oil supply shock that disproportionately benefits the budget it is trying to deplete.” —Adelie Pojman Ponte [22:54, quoting analysis]
Ukraine’s campaign of drone strikes is disrupting Russia’s oil export infrastructure and highlighting vulnerabilities in Russian defense, though paradoxically surging oil prices still fill Kremlin coffers. On-the-ground liberation continues, but with high casualties and little direct engagement—a hallmark of the drone-dominated war. Diplomatically, Ukraine pivots towards the Gulf as Western aid wavers. In occupied territories, Russian investment is often more show than substance, while persistent resistance sabotages infrastructure and supplies frontline intelligence. Humanitarian dimensions—especially child deportations—remain urgent and under-addressed. The broader landscape is one of grinding attrition, shifting alliances, and economic paradox, with the future—as ever—uncertain but fiercely contested.