Ukraine: The Latest

Episode Date: February 12, 2026
Title: Ukraine strikes 2,000km deep into Russia in 'longest range strike of the war' & Zelensky accuses Olympics of playing into Putin’s hands after Ukrainian athlete disqualified
Hosts/Guests: Francis Dernley, Dominic Nicholls, Jeremy Wilson

Episode Overview

This episode centers on two major stories:

1. Ukraine’s claimed longest-range strike into Russian territory since the war began, targeting key oil and military infrastructure—an event with major implications for both sides’ strategies.
2. The growing international controversy at the 2026 Winter Olympics over the disqualification of a Ukrainian athlete for honoring fallen comrades on his helmet, and President Zelensky’s accusation that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has furthered Russian interests.

The hosts and guests provide military updates, political analysis of the NATO/Ukraine summit, and an in-depth look at the Olympic row, exploring both the frontlines and the intersection of sport and war.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Military Strikes and Battlefield Situation

• Ukraine’s Longest-Range Strike:

  • Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claims a drone/missile strike 2,000km into Russia, hitting the Lukoil-owned Ukta oil refinery in the Komi Republic.
    • Dominic Nicholls: “This marks the furthest strike yet by Ukrainian attack drones unless you then start a conversation about Operation Spiderweb.” (03:35)
  • Recent strikes also reported in Volgograd and Tambov regions, including attacks on military arsenals and an aviation equipment plant.

• Russian Casualties & Recruitment:

  • Ukraine claims 770 Russian military casualties in the prior day alone, alongside massive numbers of drones downed.
    • “1,442 drones were brought down yesterday.” (Dominic Nicholls, 06:54)
  • Reference to a wider Ukrainian strategy to kill 50,000 Russian soldiers monthly (07:07), with drone warfare making such numbers theoretically possible.
  • CSIS and Financial Times report: At least 325,000 Russian fatalities since the full-scale invasion; monthly casualty rates nearly match Russia’s mobilization targets, citing stagnating frontlines and slow Russian advances:
    • “That rate…is slower than almost any war in the past 100 years.” (Dominic Nicholls, 08:35)
    • Michael Kofman, cited: “Putin’s bet has been that sustained pressure across the broad front is going to eventually lead to a collapse on the Ukrainian side. But…the way Russian forces are fighting simply won’t generate operationally significant breakthroughs.” (paraphrased, 08:50)

• Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Cities:

  • Latest missile and drone barrages: 24 missiles and 219 drones launched at Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, and Kharkiv (12:30), with significant damage to energy infrastructure.
    • Over 100,000 Kyiv residents lost power, and Dnipro attacks left 10,000 without heat. Several children injured; civilian casualties remain under international scrutiny.

2. NATO and International Political Response

• NATO/Ukraine Summit in Brussels:

  • Updates on military aid: $4.5 billion contributed by 21 NATO member states plus Australia and New Zealand via the prioritized Pearl fund since summer 2025.
  • The UK announces £150 million to Pearl and an additional £400 million in air defence missiles.
    • UK Defence Secretary John Healey: “We will back you, we will defend you, we will fight with you in this new era of threat and hard power.” (Dominic Nicholls quoting, 13:44)
  • Praise from Ukraine’s Defence Minister for the UK’s “urgent air defence support.” (13:58)

• European Defence Readiness & Critique:

  • Francis Dernley highlights paradoxes in European leaders' positions: existential rhetoric but slow rearmament.
    • “This war has now lasted more than the entire conflict on the Eastern Front in the Second World War…and the world’s considerably sped up since the 1940s…” (Francis Dernley, 14:58)
  • Dominic Nicholls, playing “Devil’s Avocado,” notes the challenges of military procurement amid fast-changing technological needs—namely, drones eclipsing older artillery.
    • “If they put all their chips into building artillery stuff at the time, then along come drones and we go, ah, blimey, right, drones. Drones is it?” (15:56)
  • Comment on European reluctance to prioritize defense spending except in emergencies; a “break glass in emergency” attitude prevails.

• US Involvement & New Peacekeeping Initiatives:

  • US representation at the summit notably less senior, signaling a strategic pivot.
  • EU floats proposals for training Ukrainian soldiers inside Ukraine as part of long-term security guarantees.
    • Francis Dernley: “These are some of the first concrete proposals we’ve heard… But again, how helpful is this when there’s simply no evidence that peace is any closer?” (18:44)
    • Dominic Nicholls: “This is diplomatic word salad that masks Europe’s not got an awful lot else to say, which is the tragedy of it all.” (19:49)

• Peace Talks and Domestic Turmoil:

  • Anticipation for US-proposed talks in Miami, pending Russian acceptance.
  • Domestic Ukrainian news: Illness among MPs possibly linked to harsh energy shortages; reports of Russians attempting to get Ukrainians to register Starlink terminals, a new angle in electronic warfare.

3. Olympic Controversy: The "Helmet of Memory"

Background & Disqualification

• Ukrainian skeleton athlete Vladislav Herskevich was disqualified for wearing a helmet honoring athletes killed in Russia’s war—an act the IOC deemed a prohibited political gesture.
  • Host insight: “He said this was a bigger issue than medals…It felt like a betrayal of those athletes not to wear it.” (Jeremy Wilson, 23:41)
• The IOC president, Kirsty Coventry, tried to broker a compromise but held firm: expressions allowed before/after competition, not during (24:18).
• Herskevich refused to back down, resulting in his disqualification.

Zelensky and Ukrainian Reactions

• President Zelensky: “The IOC are playing into the hands of aggressors by what they are doing. If you want to disqualify someone, it should be the Russians competing as neutrals.” (paraphrased by Jeremy Wilson, 25:02)
• Issue raised that, by already banning Russia and Belarus earlier, the IOC had set a political precedent—making the neutral stance seem inconsistent.

Debate Over Remembrance, Politics, and Sport

• The IOC’s justification: Allowing gestures could unleash “chaos”—athletes from various conflicts making public statements.
• Jeremy Wilson: “Even if [the IOC] felt this was a breach, the disciplinary sanction is another step…My feeling is, why couldn’t they…impose a sanction that was much more proportionate?” (29:13)
• Dominic Nicholls: Criticizes the binary position of the IOC and questions the severity of stripping accreditation—though notes the IOC partially reversed that decision later in the day (30:37).

Wider Ramifications and Irony

• Francis Dernley: “Should the war in Ukraine be treated as a special case?...many would argue it should be considered differently than those other conflicts, many of which are smaller in scale.” (29:26)
• Dominic Nicholls: “You can’t invite the world to come and have a look at you and then say, oh, but you’re not allowed to bring any pesky opinions with you… I don’t think that stands up to scrutiny any longer.” (34:35)
• Jeremy Wilson: “Had he just been allowed to do what he wanted…it would have felt more like an act of memorial remembrance. But by taking the action they have done…it's become way more political than it…it would have done…” (35:27)
• Dominic Nicholls: Ridicules how the IOC’s approach invites absurd scenarios of “blank” helmets or silent protests and draws comparisons to Russian censorship.
  • “It’s the same as people we see arrested in Red Square for holding up a blank piece of paper…” (36:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This marks the furthest strike yet by Ukrainian attack drones unless you then start a conversation about Operation Spiderweb.” (Dominic Nicholls, 03:35)
• “1,442 drones were brought down yesterday. It just gives you an idea of the amount of activity at the front.” (Dominic Nicholls, 06:54)
• “[Putin’s] bet…won’t generate operationally significant breakthroughs.” (Michael Kofman via Dominic Nicholls, 08:50)
• “We will back you, we will defend you, we will fight with you in this new era of threat and hard power.” (John Healey, 13:44)
• “This war has now lasted more than the entire conflict on the Eastern Front in the Second World War…” (Francis Dernley, 14:58)
• “I think this is diplomatic word salad that masks Europe’s not got an awful lot else to say, which is the tragedy of it all.” (Dominic Nicholls, 19:49)
• “[The IOC] say it’s okay before, it’s okay after. But during competition…We can’t make an exception.” (Jeremy Wilson, 24:18)
• “He said, it’s hard to say or put into words, it’s emptiness describing the verdict. This is the price of our dignity.” (Francis Dernley, quoting Herskevich, 32:41)
• “You can’t invite the world to come and have a look at you and then say, oh, but you’re not allowed to bring any pesky opinions with you.” (Dominic Nicholls, 34:35)
• “Had he just been allowed to do what he wanted…it would have felt more like an act of memorial remembrance. But by taking the action they have done…it's become way more political…” (Jeremy Wilson, 35:27)
• “The IOC have just invited this upon them. I wonder if a Ukrainian athlete wears a helmet throughout the rest of these games with things blotted out, whether they say, oh no, you’re jumping on the bandwagon, off you go.” (Dominic Nicholls, 36:19)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |----------|-----------| | 03:27 | Ukrainian strikes inside Russia: summary and locations (oil refinery, arsenals, ammo depots) | | 07:07 | Discussion on Ukrainian drone strategy and casualty numbers | | 08:12 | Numbers on Russian fatalities, causes of limited front-line movement, CSIS report | | 12:30 | Russian missile and drone attack details, impact on Ukrainian cities | | 13:44 | NATO/Brussels meeting updates; UK and allies’ new contributions | | 14:58 | European defense posture and paradoxes in rearmament | | 15:56 | The challenge of procurement and investment in military technology | | 18:44 | EU training proposals for Ukrainian soldiers on Ukrainian soil | | 23:09 | Introduction to Winter Olympics controversy; summary of helmet dispute | | 25:02 | President Zelensky’s reaction to IOC and athlete disqualification | | 27:25 | Dominic Nicholls on the IOC’s rigidity and consequences | | 29:26 | Should Ukraine/this war be a “special case” in international sport? | | 30:37 | IOC’s initial and revised sanctions against Herskevich | | 34:35 | Broader debate: Remembrance, politics, and sport—limits of neutrality | | 36:19 | Discussion on “silent” protests, the absurdity of restrictive rules | | 38:46 | Final thoughts, culture notes (Ukrainian art at Olympics) |

Additional Notes & Cultural Moments

• Closing segment highlights Ukrainian cultural presence at the Winter Olympics through artist Helena Klepikowska’s “Keep Moving,” contextualizing the broader Ukrainian contribution to the Games beyond politics and controversy (38:46).
• Reminder about the Telegraph’s Ukraine newsletter and additional resources for further deep dives.

Summary

This episode offers a compelling, multifaceted look at Ukraine’s ongoing war against Russia—on the battlefield, in the diplomatic arena, and within the global spotlight of the Olympic Games. It highlights Ukraine’s escalating technological counter-strikes, the grim calculus of casualties and recruitment, the complexities of Western support, and the moral/political ambiguities when global institutions like the IOC confront the realities of war. Notable quotes and uncompromising commentary add urgency and clarity for listeners seeking to understand both the latest sweeping events and their deeper implications.