Ukraine: The Latest – Episode Summary

Date: January 29, 2026
Episode: Zelensky warns of ‘massive’ attack ahead of Sunday peace talks & rumours swirl of Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire
Podcast: Ukraine: The Latest (The Telegraph)
Host: Francis Dernley
Guests: Dominic Nichols (Associate Editor of Defence), James Kilner (Russia Analyst), Toby Illingworth (Yeschenko Foundation, from Kyiv)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into President Zelensky’s warning of an imminent large-scale Russian attack, rising speculation of a (potential) backchannel Russia-Ukraine energy “ceasefire,” and the context surrounding diplomatic moves ahead of peace talks. The team also assesses Russian societal and economic cracks—from a revealing war memorial and worsening oil revenues to the saga of a struggling baker. Finally, they shine a light on the launch of a vital blood bank initiative in Ukraine, responding to the country’s mounting medical crisis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Military Updates: Anticipating a 'Massive' Russian Strike

Dom Nichols provides a battlefield update:

• President Zelensky warned in his evening address that Russia is preparing a new "massive strike"—their intelligence and patterns suggest such attacks happen about every 10 days to two weeks (03:00).
• Recent large-scale attacks include drone/drone-assisted strikes, with 105 Russian drones fired on Ukraine the previous day, 84 of which were shot down. Seven locations hit, causing at least six deaths (primarily in Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (03:50).
• Kyiv faces ongoing power outages, with 613 high-rise buildings still without electricity after repeated strikes. Forecasted sub-zero temperatures (-15°C) add to the crisis (03:20).
• Security tightened on Ukrainian railways following a fatal attack on a passenger train in Kharkiv oblast, with reduced service and temporary bus substitutions (04:20).
• Russian media’s war coverage is increasingly muted and downplays events—e.g., Tass covering only a minor cross-border Ukrainian artillery shelling of Russia’s Kursk region (10-12 shells) and omitting mention of Ukrainian casualties elsewhere (05:00).
• Ongoing prisoner exchanges: 1,000 Ukrainian and 38 Russian bodies returned under Istanbul agreements (06:30).

2. Diplomatic Maneuverings Ahead of Peace Talks

• Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov suggests Zelensky must travel to Moscow for direct talks with Putin—a “carrot” widely perceived as empty rhetoric (09:00).
• Concerns rise over some US diplomatic envoys’ unfamiliarity with critical wartime facts, as the Kyiv Independent reveals one senior official’s basic errors (war timelines, roles of Ukrainian officials) (10:00).
  • Quote:
    “I wasn't aware of what that anniversary date was...I think it's the longest war now. It was longer than World War II at this point.” – Unnamed US envoy (10:45)
• Hungary is actively seeking a Trump-Putin meeting ahead of its April election, with Orban using the war and EU entry debates for domestic political gain, and sharp exchanges with Ukraine’s foreign minister (12:00).

3. NATO Solidarity and European Security Debates

• Discord surfaces over recent remarks by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who said Europe would need to spend 10% of GDP on defense to match US capabilities. Former Estonian president Thomas Hendrik Ilves publicly questions the credibility of these figures, arguing the EU doesn’t require global force projection akin to the US (15:00).
  • Quote:
    “Is Rutte's statement even remotely credible? ... The EU economy is just spitballing, it is neither backed up by facts nor is it credible.” – Thomas Hendrik Ilves, via X/Twitter (15:45)

4. Russia’s Diplomatic Narrative and Propaganda

• James Kilner shares insights from Russian state media and military bloggers:
  • The Kremlin is pushing the so-called “Anchorage Formula,” suggesting peace depends on Ukraine ceding the Donbas—though this seems like a recently invented narrative to legitimize Russian claims (17:31).
  • Russian military bloggers report possible unofficial orders for missile units not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, indicating a rumoured truce during peace talks—though this remains unconfirmed (18:20).
    • “There have been reports...that commanders of missile systems...have been told not to fire equipment at energy and power generating infrastructure in Ukraine… cannot confirm it independently…” – James Kilner (18:15)
  • Recent large strikes on Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure complicate the truce rumours; uncertainty remains (20:00).

5. The Middle East Angle: Syria and Strategic Basing

• Russia has abandoned a minor base in northeast Syria, likely as part of shifting alliances following regime changes, but retains its crucial Mediterranean naval and air bases (23:00).
• The Kremlin focuses on ensuring it keeps these bases to maintain influence over the Mediterranean and Africa, key for projecting power globally (22:00).

6. Russia’s Economic Struggles and Social Strains

James Kilner summarises key stress points on Russian society and the economy:

• Russia is forced to sell oil to India at steep discounts (up to $25/barrel below market), following US sanctions, dropping revenue by ~20% (24:40).
• Proposals to legalize casinos nation-wide aim to generate wartime revenue, as state finances tighten due to war costs (25:30).
• A school war memorial in a small Urals village revealed more deaths from the Ukraine war than from WWII or Afghanistan—15 for Ukraine, 13 for WWII, 3 for Afghanistan—offering a poignant snapshot of war’s toll on rural communities (26:40).
• Russia’s fertility rate hits a twenty-year low (1.37 children, vs. Putin’s goal of 1.8), highlighting the regime’s failure to reverse population decline despite costly incentives (28:20).
  • “Putin looks increasingly impotent…He keeps banging on about [higher fertility]…and he’s failing." – James Kilner (28:50)
• The saga of baker Denis Maximov—a small business owner who lost his bakery chain to high wartime taxes (VAT hike from 20% to 22%), briefly gained Kremlin favor after a televised complaint, but eventually exposed cracks in Putin’s carefully managed media strategy as other entrepreneurs join in protest (29:45).
  • “The taxes…have gone up to 22% from 20% in Russia, purely to fund the war in Ukraine…now reports of flash mobs…complaining about exactly what Maximov was complaining about…” – James Kilner (30:20)

7. US Diplomatic Moves in the Caucasus

• Donald Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, is to visit Armenia and Azerbaijan—historic firsts—signaling US attempts to woo these ex-Soviet states away from Russian influence after recent armed conflicts and political shifts (31:55).
  • “If Vance does actually go to Armenia and Azerbaijan, it’ll be extraordinary. … [It will be] the US planting its flag in the South Caucasus.” – James Kilner (33:32)

Feature Segment: Ukraine’s Medical Crisis & the ‘Walking Blood Bank’

Toby Illingworth (Yeschenko Foundation) reports from Kyiv on a humanitarian innovation:

• The Yeschenko Foundation, named after a frontline volunteer, provides water/sanitation, shelter, food, and—primarily—medical aid across liberated and at-risk Ukrainian regions (34:30).
• Ukraine faces a critical shortage of blood; up to 24.5% of deaths and a higher percentage of amputations could be avoidable with sufficient supplies at the point of need (37:00).
  • “Even before the full-scale invasion, two-thirds of patients were not receiving sufficient blood in time.” – Toby Illingworth (37:30)
• The 'Walking Blood Bank' initiative uses rapid testing (Eldon Card) to register voluntary blood donors country-wide, especially in frontline and rural areas. Donors receive push notifications to give blood in emergencies, targeting 750,000 new donors and 2 million blood type determinations (38:20).
  • “The goal is to engage 750,000 new donors by determining over 2 million blood types across the country and reducing the critical shortage of blood.” – Toby Illingworth (39:55)
• Harsh winter conditions and the ever-present risk of attacks complicate operations, especially near the front (41:03).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On wartime information from Russia:
  "They just simply do not want to draw attention to the war...reporting 10 rounds or 12 artillery shells. That's it. That's the only military update...No mention of any attacks on Ukraine, including that drone strike on the passenger train."
  — Dom Nichols (05:30)

• On US diplomatic fumbles:
  “I wasn't aware of what that anniversary date was…I think it's the longest war now. It was longer than World War II at this point.”
  — Unnamed senior US envoy, via Kyiv Independent (10:45)

• On European security and NATO:
  “Is Rutte's statement even remotely credible?...We don’t need worldwide expeditionary forces. We don’t need 11 carriers.”
  — Thomas Hendrik Ilves, via X/Twitter (15:45, paraphrased by Francis)

• On the Russian baker's travails as a symbol:
  “If you can help this guy, you can also help us. I'm not saying this is the beginning of the end. I'm just saying it's another sore, it's another ulcer that…we need to keep monitoring.”
  — James Kilner (30:38)

• On the deep cost of war:
  “Each one of those numbers is an individual...a family that’s been forever changed…there are individuals here that don’t really get very much attention, but they are the volunteers…[continuing] to support their community to the best of their ability…”
  — Toby Illingworth (46:50)

Segment Timestamps

• Military update & Russian attack preparations – 02:58–09:00
• Diplomacy: Moscow peace overtures, US diplomatic stumbles – 09:00–12:00
• Hungary’s electoral maneuvers and Ukraine-EU tensions – 12:00–15:00
• NATO, European defense debate (Ilves quote) – 15:00–17:00
• Russia’s media/propaganda and energy ceasefire rumours – 17:31–21:17
• Middle East: Syria, strategic basing – 21:38–24:24
• Russian economy, war memorial, demographics, bakery saga – 24:40–31:15
• US moves in Armenia and Azerbaijan – 31:53–33:43
• Interview: Yeschenko Foundation and 'Walking Blood Bank' – 34:24–42:54
• Listener wrap-up: Danish flags in Copenhagen, Kadyrov’s health, personal stories from Ukraine – 44:33–48:46

Notable Endnotes

• Civic Engagement: Dom Nichols requests Copenhagen listeners report on continuing protests at the US embassy relating to Danish troops in Afghanistan (44:33).
• Chechnya’s Kadyrov: James Kilner notes the Chechen leader was seen in the Kremlin but visibly frail, reigniting health rumours (45:37).
• Personal Stories: Toby Illingworth closes by humanizing volunteer efforts and individual sacrifices in Ukraine’s beleaguered communities (46:46).

Overall Tone:
Authoritative yet empathetic; blends in-depth military and geopolitical analysis with personal stories from Ukraine’s frontlines and humanitarian efforts.

Listener Value:
Essential for those tracking not just the facts of the Ukraine war, but also its cascading effects inside Russia, the broader region, and on the ground in Ukraine—from the fate of power grids to the lives of civilians and volunteers.

Produced by: Rachel Porter
Executive Producers: Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells, David Knowles