Zelensky warns of ‘massive’ attack ahead of Sunday peace talks & rumours swirl of Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire

Summary

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Ukraine: The Latest – Episode Summary

Date: January 29, 2026
Episode: Zelensky warns of ‘massive’ attack ahead of Sunday peace talks & rumours swirl of Ukraine-Russia energy ceasefire
Podcast: Ukraine: The Latest (The Telegraph)
Host: Francis Dernley
Guests: Dominic Nichols (Associate Editor of Defence), James Kilner (Russia Analyst), Toby Illingworth (Yeschenko Foundation, from Kyiv)

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into President Zelensky’s warning of an imminent large-scale Russian attack, rising speculation of a (potential) backchannel Russia-Ukraine energy “ceasefire,” and the context surrounding diplomatic moves ahead of peace talks. The team also assesses Russian societal and economic cracks—from a revealing war memorial and worsening oil revenues to the saga of a struggling baker. Finally, they shine a light on the launch of a vital blood bank initiative in Ukraine, responding to the country’s mounting medical crisis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Military Updates: Anticipating a 'Massive' Russian Strike

Dom Nichols provides a battlefield update:

• President Zelensky warned in his evening address that Russia is preparing a new "massive strike"—their intelligence and patterns suggest such attacks happen about every 10 days to two weeks (03:00).
• Recent large-scale attacks include drone/drone-assisted strikes, with 105 Russian drones fired on Ukraine the previous day, 84 of which were shot down. Seven locations hit, causing at least six deaths (primarily in Zaporizhzhia Oblast) (03:50).
• Kyiv faces ongoing power outages, with 613 high-rise buildings still without electricity after repeated strikes. Forecasted sub-zero temperatures (-15°C) add to the crisis (03:20).
• Security tightened on Ukrainian railways following a fatal attack on a passenger train in Kharkiv oblast, with reduced service and temporary bus substitutions (04:20).
• Russian media’s war coverage is increasingly muted and downplays events—e.g., Tass covering only a minor cross-border Ukrainian artillery shelling of Russia’s Kursk region (10-12 shells) and omitting mention of Ukrainian casualties elsewhere (05:00).
• Ongoing prisoner exchanges: 1,000 Ukrainian and 38 Russian bodies returned under Istanbul agreements (06:30).

2. Diplomatic Maneuverings Ahead of Peace Talks

• Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov suggests Zelensky must travel to Moscow for direct talks with Putin—a “carrot” widely perceived as empty rhetoric (09:00).
• Concerns rise over some US diplomatic envoys’ unfamiliarity with critical wartime facts, as the Kyiv Independent reveals one senior official’s basic errors (war timelines, roles of Ukrainian officials) (10:00).
  • Quote:
    “I wasn't aware of what that anniversary date was...I think it's the longest war now. It was longer than World War II at this point.” – Unnamed US envoy (10:45)
• Hungary is actively seeking a Trump-Putin meeting ahead of its April election, with Orban using the war and EU entry debates for domestic political gain, and sharp exchanges with Ukraine’s foreign minister (12:00).

3. NATO Solidarity and European Security Debates

• Discord surfaces over recent remarks by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who said Europe would need to spend 10% of GDP on defense to match US capabilities. Former Estonian president Thomas Hendrik Ilves publicly questions the credibility of these figures, arguing the EU doesn’t require global force projection akin to the US (15:00).
  • Quote:
    “Is Rutte's statement even remotely credible? ... The EU economy is just spitballing, it is neither backed up by facts nor is it credible.” – Thomas Hendrik Ilves, via X/Twitter (15:45)

4. Russia’s Diplomatic Narrative and Propaganda

• James Kilner shares insights from Russian state media and military bloggers:
  • The Kremlin is pushing the so-called “Anchorage Formula,” suggesting peace depends on Ukraine ceding the Donbas—though this seems like a recently invented narrative to legitimize Russian claims (17:31).
  • Russian military bloggers report possible unofficial orders for missile units not to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure, indicating a rumoured truce during peace talks—though this remains unconfirmed (18:20).
    • “There have been reports...that commanders of missile systems...have been told not to fire equipment at energy and power generating infrastructure in Ukraine… cannot confirm it independently…” – James Kilner (18:15)
  • Recent large strikes on Ukrainian civilian energy infrastructure complicate the truce rumours; uncertainty remains (20:00).

5. The Middle East Angle: Syria and Strategic Basing

• Russia has abandoned a minor base in northeast Syria, likely as part of shifting alliances following regime changes, but retains its crucial Mediterranean naval and air bases (23:00).
• The Kremlin focuses on ensuring it keeps these bases to maintain influence over the Mediterranean and Africa, key for projecting power globally (22:00).

6. Russia’s Economic Struggles and Social Strains

James Kilner summarises key stress points on Russian society and the economy:

• Russia is forced to sell oil to India at steep discounts (up to $25/barrel below market), following US sanctions, dropping revenue by ~20% (24:40).
• Proposals to legalize casinos nation-wide aim to generate wartime revenue, as state finances tighten due to war costs (25:30).
• A school war memorial in a small Urals village revealed more deaths from the Ukraine war than from WWII or Afghanistan—15 for Ukraine, 13 for WWII, 3 for Afghanistan—offering a poignant snapshot of war’s toll on rural communities (26:40).
• Russia’s fertility rate hits a twenty-year low (1.37 children, vs. Putin’s goal of 1.8), highlighting the regime’s failure to reverse population decline despite costly incentives (28:20).
  • “Putin looks increasingly impotent…He keeps banging on about [higher fertility]…and he’s failing." – James Kilner (28:50)
• The saga of baker Denis Maximov—a small business owner who lost his bakery chain to high wartime taxes (VAT hike from 20% to 22%), briefly gained Kremlin favor after a televised complaint, but eventually exposed cracks in Putin’s carefully managed media strategy as other entrepreneurs join in protest (29:45).
  • “The taxes…have gone up to 22% from 20% in Russia, purely to fund the war in Ukraine…now reports of flash mobs…complaining about exactly what Maximov was complaining about…” – James Kilner (30:20)

7. US Diplomatic Moves in the Caucasus

• Donald Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, is to visit Armenia and Azerbaijan—historic firsts—signaling US attempts to woo these ex-Soviet states away from Russian influence after recent armed conflicts and political shifts (31:55).
  • “If Vance does actually go to Armenia and Azerbaijan, it’ll be extraordinary. … [It will be] the US planting its flag in the South Caucasus.” – James Kilner (33:32)

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Feature Segment: Ukraine’s Medical Crisis & the ‘Walking Blood Bank’

Toby Illingworth (Yeschenko Foundation) reports from Kyiv on a humanitarian innovation:

• The Yeschenko Foundation, named after a frontline volunteer, provides water/sanitation, shelter, food, and—primarily—medical aid across liberated and at-risk Ukrainian regions (34:30).
• Ukraine faces a critical shortage of blood; up to 24.5% of deaths and a higher percentage of amputations could be avoidable with sufficient supplies at the point of need (37:00).
  • “Even before the full-scale invasion, two-thirds of patients were not receiving sufficient blood in time.” – Toby Illingworth (37:30)
• The 'Walking Blood Bank' initiative uses rapid testing (Eldon Card) to register voluntary blood donors country-wide, especially in frontline and rural areas. Donors receive push notifications to give blood in emergencies, targeting 750,000 new donors and 2 million blood type determinations (38:20).
  • “The goal is to engage 750,000 new donors by determining over 2 million blood types across the country and reducing the critical shortage of blood.” – Toby Illingworth (39:55)
• Harsh winter conditions and the ever-present risk of attacks complicate operations, especially near the front (41:03).

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On wartime information from Russia:
  "They just simply do not want to draw attention to the war...reporting 10 rounds or 12 artillery shells. That's it. That's the only military update...No mention of any attacks on Ukraine, including that drone strike on the passenger train."
  — Dom Nichols (05:30)

• On US diplomatic fumbles:
  “I wasn't aware of what that anniversary date was…I think it's the longest war now. It was longer than World War II at this point.”
  — Unnamed senior US envoy, via Kyiv Independent (10:45)

• On European security and NATO:
  “Is Rutte's statement even remotely credible?...We don’t need worldwide expeditionary forces. We don’t need 11 carriers.”
  — Thomas Hendrik Ilves, via X/Twitter (15:45, paraphrased by Francis)

• On the Russian baker's travails as a symbol:
  “If you can help this guy, you can also help us. I'm not saying this is the beginning of the end. I'm just saying it's another sore, it's another ulcer that…we need to keep monitoring.”
  — James Kilner (30:38)

• On the deep cost of war:
  “Each one of those numbers is an individual...a family that’s been forever changed…there are individuals here that don’t really get very much attention, but they are the volunteers…[continuing] to support their community to the best of their ability…”
  — Toby Illingworth (46:50)

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Segment Timestamps

• Military update & Russian attack preparations – 02:58–09:00
• Diplomacy: Moscow peace overtures, US diplomatic stumbles – 09:00–12:00
• Hungary’s electoral maneuvers and Ukraine-EU tensions – 12:00–15:00
• NATO, European defense debate (Ilves quote) – 15:00–17:00
• Russia’s media/propaganda and energy ceasefire rumours – 17:31–21:17
• Middle East: Syria, strategic basing – 21:38–24:24
• Russian economy, war memorial, demographics, bakery saga – 24:40–31:15
• US moves in Armenia and Azerbaijan – 31:53–33:43
• Interview: Yeschenko Foundation and 'Walking Blood Bank' – 34:24–42:54
• Listener wrap-up: Danish flags in Copenhagen, Kadyrov’s health, personal stories from Ukraine – 44:33–48:46

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Notable Endnotes

• Civic Engagement: Dom Nichols requests Copenhagen listeners report on continuing protests at the US embassy relating to Danish troops in Afghanistan (44:33).
• Chechnya’s Kadyrov: James Kilner notes the Chechen leader was seen in the Kremlin but visibly frail, reigniting health rumours (45:37).
• Personal Stories: Toby Illingworth closes by humanizing volunteer efforts and individual sacrifices in Ukraine’s beleaguered communities (46:46).

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Overall Tone:
Authoritative yet empathetic; blends in-depth military and geopolitical analysis with personal stories from Ukraine’s frontlines and humanitarian efforts.

Listener Value:
Essential for those tracking not just the facts of the Ukraine war, but also its cascading effects inside Russia, the broader region, and on the ground in Ukraine—from the fate of power grids to the lives of civilians and volunteers.

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Produced by: Rachel Porter
Executive Producers: Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells, David Knowles

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Transcript

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[James Kilner]

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[Francis Dernley]

I'm Francis Dernley and this is Ukraine. The latest Today, as President Zelensky warns Russia is preparing a new massive strike, we examine growing speculation that an undeclared truce may be in place regarding strikes on energy infrastructure. Then we turn to the Russian press, where a local war memorial in the Urals appears to have inadvertently revealed the true scale of Russian casualties and an unlikely scandal involving a baker that's caused fresh embarrassment for Putin. Finally, we report on the launch of a new blood bank aimed at alleviating Ukraine's mounting medical crisis.

[Dom Nichols]

Bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

[Melissa Banishai]

The Russia does not want peace.

[Francis Dernley]

If I'm president, I will have that.

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War settled in one day, 24 hours.

[Francis Dernley]

We are with you, not just today.

[Dom Nichols]

Or tomorrow, but for 100 years.

[Francis Dernley]

Nobody's going to break us.

[James Kilner]

We are strong. We are Ukrainians.

[Francis Dernley]

It's Thursday 29 January, three years and 341 days since the full scale invasion began. And today I'm joined by our associate editor of Defence, Dominic Nichols, our Russia analyst, James Kilner. And dialing in from Ukraine, Toby Illingworth, head of mission at the Yeschenko Foundation. First though, over to Dom for the latest in the military realm.

[Dom Nichols]

First start in Ukraine and President Zelensky. In last night's evening address, he said the Russians are preparing a new massive strike. Our intelligence indicates this. The United States, Europe and all our partners have to understand how this discredits diplomatic talks. Every single Russian strike does. It seems that Russia at the moment pulses these big mass aerial strikes about every 10 days to two weeks. There's been three big strikes so far this year, January 9th, 20th and the 24th, so it's due another one. So I don't know what the intelligence is that President Zelensky has seen. However, it looks like they are battening down, expecting another big strike now. Some 613 high rise apartment buildings in Kyiv remain without power following those recent Russian strikes. This comes from Kyiv city state administration speaking this morning. Heating was restored to 124 buildings yesterday, officials said. But they also warned that after a brief period of warming just in the last week or so, colder weather is forecast to return to Ukraine in the next few days. The high is likely to be -15, -15 Celsius, 5 degrees Fahrenheit. So yesterday 105 Russian drones fired at the country, 84 were brought down, but seven locations were hit, six people killed and dozens injured. Most of those casualties were in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Now, additional security measures have been implemented on Ukrainian railways following yesterday's attack on that passenger train in Kharkiv oblast, the death toll from which has risen to 6 today. So Yuko Zalnitsia, the train operator, said in a statement, the enemy is intensifying its attacks on the railway, in particular on moving trains. So changes to operating procedures are going to include temporarily restricting number of connections in Kharkiv oblast. And passengers are going to be transported in buses in some areas. Trains also may make unscheduled stops, which could affect the timelines, they say, of arrivals from Kherson, Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Now, as an odd story in tass, Russia's state news agency, but I bring it to your attention, I saw the headline. It said Ukrainian forces fire more than 10 artillery shells on Kursk region in past 24 hours. So when I saw it, I thought that they mean 10 times as many rounds fired into Russia as are coming back, or maybe 10 times more than Russia has fired this week. But no, it's literally just that it's 10 rounds. The whole story is this. The Ukrainian armed forces have attacked the Kursk region, firing more than 10 artillery shells over the past hours, the region's governor, Alexander Kinstein, reported on his Telegram channel. In total, between 9am Moscow time on January 28 and 7am Moscow time on January 29, nine enemy drones of various types were shot down. The enemy fired 12 artillery shells on evacuated areas. The regional governor added that there was no damage to infrastructure and there were no casualties, reporting 10 rounds or 12 artillery shells. That's it. That's the only military update on Tassel today. No mention of any attacks on Ukraine, including that drone strike on the passenger train. Even through the veneer, as they would often try to do, to say the targets were military, they just simply do not want to draw attention to the war special military mess up at all. So there's a story there of 12 artillery shells being fired and that's all they want you to know about it. Now, yesterday, a thousand more bodies of the dead have been returned to Ukraine. 38 Russian bodies are also returned. This comes from the coordination headquarters for the treatment of prisoners of war under the agreements that came out of the time when Russia and Ukraine met in Istanbul. And just a final one for me, an interesting, slightly old story from our colleague Gareth Caulfield, you've heard very recently on the pod says the Royal Navy has been tracking a suspicious Russian ship that spent 14 hours stopped over undersea data cables in the Bristol Channel. He's got a story online at the moment. I think it's going to be in the paper as well. He says the cargo ship Synagor sailed into the Bristol Channel on Tuesday night and appeared to have anchored about two miles off minehead in Somerset northeast coast. Now, she remains stationary over that spot, suggesting the ship was anchored until 2pm on Wednesday. Yesterday. Now, within a mile of her position, there are a number of undersea telecoms cables connecting Britain to the us, Canada, Spain and Portugal. The Shadow Security Minister, Alicia Kearns, said the movements of this Russian ship are deeply suspicious. But right over our transatlantic deep sea data cables, yet another reminder of the persistent and pernicious threats our country faces from Putin and his allies. Now, the synagogue last reported port call was three weeks ago in Russia at a major trading port that's also the headquarters of the Russian Navy's Northern Fleet. Now, within three quarters of a mile of the location where she seemingly anchored up are five undersea data cables, two of them from the TGN Atlantic cable system connecting Britain to New York. Another cable from Exa Express links the UK to Nova Scotia in Canada. And the remaining pair, forming the VSNL Western Europe cable network, connect Spain and Portugal to the United Kingdom. Aircraft tracking websites showed that a Coast Guard surveillance aircraft spent half an hour circling the synagogues yesterday morning. And after that, further surveillance was carried out by a Royal Navy Wildcat helicopter, which took off from Royal Naval Air Station Yeovilton down in Somerset and saw the synagogue. Sorry, no, it's in. In Cornwall. Yeovilton. No, hang on. No, it isn't. That's cold, Rose. Yeah, it's in Somerset. Royal Naval Air Station Yeovilton is in Somerset.

[Francis Dernley]

You're right there, Tom.

[Dom Nichols]

Yeah, yeah, exciting. Anyway, anyway, so the Wildcat circled around for a bit and then the Russian ship moved off after 14 hours. Ministry of Defence sources suggested that the synagogues may have entered the Bristol Channel to shelter from bad weather. It's worth noting the Met Office maritime forecast for yesterday said that people in the area should expect 4, 6 winds, describing a strong breeze by the Royal Meteorological Society with sea states yesterday moderate or rough. So possibly the synagogues was just sheltering from the storm. Just happened to be directly overhead a load of undersea cables. That's us up to date, Francis. I'm going to go and have a look at the map.

[Francis Dernley]

Thanks, Tom. Remember after the Alaska summit when you speculated Putin would offer to meet Zelensky, but only if he traveled to Moscow? Now, that was something that sounds, of course, to some audiences like an extending of the hand, but which really, of course, is an empty gesture for all the reasons we discussed at the time. Well, at the moment, when Moscow seems to find it rather opportune to try and show the Americans that they are not the obstructors to peace while they continually attack civilian infrastructure night after night, they've dangled that carrot once again. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said yesterday Zelenskyy should travel to Moscow if he wants to hold direct talks with Putin. It seems this idea has reared its head once more as Trump's negotiators seem eager to have the three leaders meet. And on those negotiations, more concern among Ukraine and its allies about a basic lack of knowledge displayed by those, well, a particular individual, let's put it that way, that the Kyiv independent calls a senior US envoy in a closed conversation with a small group of reporters. Our friends at the Kyiv Independence say that, quote, the U.S. official incorrectly claimed that Kyrylo Budanov, the recently appointed head of the President's office and former chief of military intelligence, now serves as Ukraine's vice president. The same US official also appeared, unaware of key facts about the war's timeline. When asked whether Trump's peace push was aimed at ending the war by the fourth anniversary on February 24, the official suggested they did not know when the full scale invasion began. I wasn't aware of what that anniversary date was, the top US envoy answered. I don't think we feel pressure to do that because we have a four year anniversary. The official then went further, incorrectly claiming that Russia's full scale war against Ukraine had lasted longer than World War II. I think it's the longest war now. It was longer than World War II at this point. It's been going on, he said. Now that individual is obviously getting confused with the war on the Eastern Front between 1941 and 1945, which did last less time than this war, as we reported, I think it was last week. But that's not the entire of the Second World War, which of course began in 1939. Now, does anyone want to guess at home who that senior US Envoy might have been? I don't know about you, but I'm really scratching my head here in the studio. But anyway, speaking of major summits, the Hungarians are still exceptionally keen that at some point over the next two or three months, a meeting between Trump and Putin takes place there before the election on April 12th. You'll recall at the end of last year they were really pushing hard for that and did seem to make some leeway in doing so. They think it will give a huge boost to Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who's currently behind in several polls after 16 years in power. I actually had lunch with the Hungarian ambassador here in London yesterday as part of my trying to clarify a few points while we work on our Hungarian series. After my trip to Budapest, it was off the record, but it is no secret that there is no love lost between Zelenskyy and Orban. Indeed, in the latest row that's blown up this week, Orban is claiming that the Ukrainians are seeking to interfere in the elections, citing the remarks of Zelenskyy's foreign minister after Orban reiterated Ukraine would be blocked from entering the EU for 100 years. Andrii Sibia said this your plan is doomed to fail, Mr. Prime Minister. Your master in Moscow won't last 100 years even if you were ready to donate him all your organs. And on the day Ukraine joins the eu, we will frame this headline in our parliament to remember your lies for the next 100 years. As for the elections, you should not be afraid of Ukraine. You should be afraid of the Hungarian people who are tired of your lies, your kleptocracy and your hatred. Hungary's foreign minister responded by saying this, well, I see you started to interfere in our elections. We know you want a government which would say yes to Brussels and would be ready to drag Hungary into your war. But we will not let it happen. The sovereign Hungarian government will continue to protect the country and its people from your war. Hungary first. So as you can see there, the Orban government is using the war and the prospect of increased Hungarian involvement under a different government as an election tactic. So this row is arguably quite helpful for them. Hence why the Prime Minister himself commented on it, I think. But somehow I can't imagine that they would disavow any positive remarks from President Trump about Viktor Orban, citing that as interference in their election. But anyway, I digress. More on Hungary in future episodes. As I say, we're working on a big project before those elections. Now we spoke earlier in the week about other remarks, those of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutter saying Europe absolutely needed the US under all circumstances. Now this is being increasingly challenged by prominent voices, particularly after the Greenland fiasco, including Thomas Hendrik Ilves, the former president of Estonia, who's written this on X and I thought was worth reflecting upon. He said, I'm beginning to have serious doubts about either the competence or the honesty loyalties of the NATO Secretary General. Warning Europe Rutte says Europe would have to spend 10% GDP on defense to match US capabilities. Is that really true given the size of the EU economy that is not much smaller than the US's and the US spends 4%, not even the 5% demanded of US on defence for all its worldwide needs? Is Rutte's statement even remotely credible? We do not need worldwide expeditionary forces. We don't need 11 carriers. We don't need to maintain worldwide basing and infrastructure. We do not need a global posture. We do not have defence treaty commitments around the world. We do need to beef up transport, space capabilities, sixth generation fighters and missiles. But is that 10%? The 10% given the EU economy is just spitballing, is neither backed up by facts nor is it credible. And if not, why should we take the current Secretary General of NATO seriously? So an interesting intervention that not going to get into all of the discussions on Rutte now, but I do think that when the history books are written of this period, Rutte will be one of the most debated figures and potentially one of the most divisive. Depending on what happens, he's either going to go down as some kind of Chamberlain type figure or the shrewdest diplomat since Talleyrand, I think. But anyway, as I say one for another time. One last story for today though, which leads neatly into our segment with James. Matt Broomfield here at the Telegraph's written an update on a story we touched on yesterday regarding Syria. Russia has now abandoned its military base at an airport in the northeast of the country. However, and this is important, they haven't been booted out because of their loyalty to the Al Sad Assad regime but because pro government forces. So the new government that's taken over are seizing control of that area from the Kurds. Matt argues that the rapid withdrawal of troops and equipment is a sign of Moscow shifting allegiance to the new government. Speaking to a source who says he believes Moscow has sacrificed its outpost in Kurdish territory in favor of a continued presence on the government controlled Syrian coast, Matt writes this when the telegraph arrived at the base on January 27, Russian flags were being taken down and military vehicles were moving supplies ready for the EV evacuation. Buildings stood empty and shopkeepers complained soldiers had fled without paying their bills for soft drinks and cigarettes. I love that they specified soft drinks there. What were the Russians drinking in Syria? Fanta and Bongo.

[Dom Nichols]

Battery fluid I think.

[Francis Dernley]

Battery fluid. Anyway, so an interesting story and we'll link to that one in the show notes as well. But let's go over to James Kilner now who's been doing what most of us would well hate to do, which is consume vast amounts of Russian propaganda throughout the course of the week so that you don't have to at home. James, thanks very much for your time today. Where do you want to start? I mean, I think we've reflected a lot recently on the talks in Abu Dhabi. It'd be interesting to hear Moscow's take on that. Welcome back.

[James Kilner]

Let's start with the Abu Dhabi talks and how it looks from Moscow. I'd say that the Ukrainian propaganda media currently figures are essentially giving us the same line they've been given for the last six, nine months. There can be no peace in Ukraine unless Ukraine gives up the Donbas region. They've been going on about this for a long time and they're not changing their tune here at all. We see it trotted out all the time. I think you've already covered in previous podcasts how Kremlin media and Kremlin officials are starting to use the excuse of this so called Anchorage formula, which is a new terminology I hadn't seen previously, this apparently informal agreement between Putin and Trump from their summit in Alaska last summer which allowed predicated any peace deal on Putin getting hold of of entirety of Donbas that seems to be the Kremlin's new central pillar for their propaganda strategy towards these so called peace negotiations and they're legitimizing it around the so called Anchorage formula which to my mind I have. As you said, I read the Russian media all the time. I've not seen it mentioned until the last few days. It seems entirely fictional to me. So interesting strategy from the Kremlin there, there have been reports and I have to be quite careful around this issue, but there have been reports this morning from Russ military bloggers on Telegram, that's the Russian language social media channel which is very heavily used. These Russian military bloggers, as we know, are very well linked into Russian army units, missile units, navy, etc. They are reporting as of this morning that commanders of missile systems infantry units have been told not to fire equipment at energy and power generating infrastructure in Ukraine. Apparently there has been some sort of truce, can't confirm it independently between Russia and Ukraine over hitting energy installations. We do know they've been struck a lot in this very cold winter and there may have been something coming out of the Abu Dhabi trilateral peace negotiation last week around this issue. And the FT has reported that war is on the table, hasn't been officially confirmed. It would be a movement in the right direction, Francis, if that was confirmed.

[Francis Dernley]

Thank you very much, James. Let's just take a moment just to pause on that because it is a really interesting point this, that speculation that there's been a reduction of Russian attacks on energy installations while these talks are ongoing. Of course there is a chance that that's because they want to avoid bad headlines whilst the negotiations are taking place. Don't want to upset the Americans too much or there has been something that's actually been broken behind closed doors. But it bears repeating that Kyiv and many other cities are suffering enormous energy outages still. So I don't know if you've got any thoughts on this, Dom. Is it possible that it's still just the long lag of the damage that was already done before this or do you not believe this story?

[Dom Nichols]

Well, I mean I've seen this story, mentioned this possible energy truce. I just wonder. The last big attack was last Saturday night whilst the talks are ongoing. The talks were in Abu Dhabi on Friday, Saturday last week and then there was a massive aerial attack on Ukraine on the Saturday night which we spoke about on the Monday and said it is outrageous, it just shows, just an absolute snub. But I mentioned at the time that the US didn't react to that. There was no comment from the administration. Perhaps they did mention or they did take it behind closed doors and said to Putin, look, you are taking the mickey here. So potential. I don't know, I've only seen what you see, what James has seen as well. If there is an energy truce, that would obviously be very welcome, as in a truce on striking energy infrastructure. Yeah, I think we've just got to wait and see, but it is notable that the strike happened last week during the talks. And I link it to President Zelenskyy's evening address last night that he says he thinks Russia is preparing a massive new strike. That will be the answer. We'll find out probably in the next 24 hours.

[Francis Dernley]

Yeah, exactly. And we have seen examples obviously previously where there's been a stockpiling of resources, then fired in one massive attack to make a sort of statement, some kind of macabre statement, of course, and an illegal one, a war crime when you're targeting civilian infrastructure. But anyway, by the by, let's turn to another subject now, James, that you've been looking into. This is a visit Middle east is on the mind at the moment of UAE leader in the Kremlin today.

[James Kilner]

Yeah, that's right, Francis. So this is a UAE President Al Nahyam, who was officiating over these Abu Dhabi peace talks last week. He is meeting Putin today in Kremlin. He's a semi regular visitor the Kremlin. He was there last August. That was his most recent visit prior to today. The timing is obviously very interesting. This comes and I don't remember it previously being announced. It seems to have been arranged in rather short space of time. Say it's come through fairly a week after these peace talks, Putin getting the UAE president up to the Kremlin to have a few words, whether it's intelligence gathering pressure or what he's going to get out of it. The timing is interesting and definitely worth watching on your story about Russia quitting an air base in the Kurdish area of Syria. The Syrian president was also in the Kremlin yesterday. That's Al Sharra. This was his second visit to the Kremlin in the last few months. It's important context here because like the Telegraph correspondent on the ground was saying, the Kremlin is working very hard to preserve these two important military bases on the Mediterranean Sea. That's the Tartarus naval base and the human air base. These are the only two military bases that Russia operates outside the former Soviet Union. The sort of air base that your correspondent was talking about giving up in the northeastern area of Syria where the Kurds were holding was a minor detachment compared to these other bases. It's really not a big deal in the scheme of things. These two bases in the Mediterranean are the thing for Russia. They allow it to project influence over the Mediterranean and over Africa. And as we discussed before on this podcast many times, Russia and the Kremlin is very interested in particular influencing proxy States proxy allies in Africa. This allows it to influence of the UN and other international bodies to undermine the Western effort and the Ukrainian effort to get their way over the war in Ukraine. So it is very important for Russia to keep control of these bases. As we've reported, the war that Al Shadal won in December 24 when it ousted Bashar, the property leader of Syria, who then fled to Moscow, really put these bases in danger. And I remember there was a lot of questions over whether Russia would be able to hold them. I remember doing a lot of reporting for Telegraph on this issue at the time the newspaper and it actually looked like they were going to have to give them up. Clearly Russian and Kremlin real politic is kicked in and they're making deals here and there's no doubt in my mind that they have come to an arrangement with Syria, with the powers in Syria to keep these bases. At the time the EU Kayakalas was pushing Syria to to kick Russia out of these bases clearly failed. And the Kremlin's got one over here.

[Francis Dernley]

Fascinating. Thanks for your insights on that story, James. Well, let's broaden things out then to your reflections on the general economic and social picture in Russia at the moment. I know you keep an eagle eye out on stories particularly relating to the economy, but anything that's caught your attention this week would be interesting to hear about.

[James Kilner]

The first is apparently Russia's having to increasingly heavily discount its oil to India. Since the war started in Ukraine nearly four years ago. India became the single largest buyer of Russian crude oil, is now having to discount prices down to about 20%, $25 a barrel, which is far lower than the international rate. This is mainly because of the impact of US sanctions imposed last year on India, specifically aimed at cutting its imports of Russian oil. Russian oil is critical to the Russian economy, critical to financing the war in Ukraine. We do know that the Russian government, the revenue, the profit it took from oil last year was down by about 20%. So that is important. We also know that Russian oil sales India now stands at about 1.1 million barrels a day. So a huge amount, but down from 1.8 this time last year. So a huge cut. Already there has been conversations about whether the EU free trade deal signed with India this week was aimed at cutting Russian oil. Whether it has had any impact on India's imports of Russian oil. That is not the case. The free trade deal was specifically about cutting tariffs between Russia and the eu. So just to clear up any potential confusion there, the cut in Indian oil is Primarily down to US sanctions imposed last year. So that is important to clarify. Another important issue that I've picked up, Frances, is the Russian Finance Ministry is now starting to make noise about legalizing casinos across Russia. They're currently fairly tightly controlled casinos only exist in certain places. Are now talking about, about releasing this and allowing casinos across the country. This is specifically to raise more cash for the war in Ukraine. They're talking about we're going to allow casinos to operate everywhere and we're going to tax them at 30. As I keep saying, Russia needs to raise more cash for this war in Ukraine. And this is the latest scheme by the Finance Ministry. There is an insightful vignette from the Euros on Russian war losses. Depending on who you believe in, Russian war losses are anything between 1.2 million and upwards. So far end of year four in this war in Ukraine, there was a photo published at a school in the Urals of these children clearing snow, huge amounts of snow in this village of roughly 8,000, eight and a half thousand people, tiny village. They are clearing snow in front of the war memorial for boys from the school have been killed in War. There's three plans. One for World War II, known as the Great Patriotic War in Russia, one for the war in Afghanistan, that ten year war over the 1980s, and one for the current war in Ukraine. Thirteen names on the World War II plaque, three in the Afghan war plaque, and I think I counted it slightly obscured, 15 on the war on Ukraine plaque. Now, obviously this is a very localized, unscientific insight, but it really Rams homes, the impact of the war in Ukraine on these small communities and the psychological impact of all this. Of course, Soviet losses in World War II were huge, getting up to about 10 million. But of course, that was the entire Soviet Union, which had roughly double the population of Russia today. But still an interesting insight there. Just from the random village in the Euros. Another quick story on economy and social issues in Russia. There's been data today, Frances, which have come out, and this is from the government statistics agency Rostat, which showed that Russian fertility rate per woman is at 1.374, which is a 20 year low. Now, the reason I bring this up is because this is one of Putin's pet projects. He wants a fertility rate per woman of 1.8. He's giving tax rates to women. He's offered free education for student mothers, he's giving away cars, flats, whatever. He's really pushing this and he's failing. This makes Putin look increasingly impotent. He has been on this project ever since he became president and he keeps on banging on about it. So another insight there. The final little story on this segment that I want to bring to attention is is and I spoke about this on the last podcast as well. This is the story of the Moscow region baker guy called Dennis Maximov, who appeared on the Putin live phone and before Christmas complaining about how increase in VAT tweets to the tax system had completely wiped out his profit at his little chain of bakeries. I think he had had three bakeries, always about 12 to 14 people, that sort of scale. And he rang up Putin on this marathon phone in and complained directly to Putin and Putin took some interest. He said, oh, I'd be really interested in trying out your pies. I'll send you some wine in return. Etc. That's the sort of way Putin operates. It temporarily boosted maximum sales, but it wasn't enough. And a few days ago, about a couple of weeks ago, he announced he was going to have to close his chain of acreage because the tax system in Russia had destroyed them. The taxes. Those VAT has gone up to 22% from 20 in Russia purely to fund the war in Ukraine. Anyway, the point is this made it into the mainstream media and even got the Kremlin commenting on this actual bakery collapses maximum of losing his business. And then it's been updated recently, France to say they've gone into the main headlines. This was a nightmare for the Kremlin. They hate this sort of thing. They lost control of this story. Putin tries to regain control of the story, apparently goes into an economic meeting, orders his officials, his goons to sort this out and get in touch with Max Marvin and get his little bakery up and running again. This is earlier this weekend of last week, two days after this apparent meeting, Maximo Rear Pierce in the Russian Kremlin propaganda media saying, oh, I'm not going to close down my bakery. I'm actually expanding it now. I'm going to open two more bakeries and hire new managers and bring out new recipes. He's later admitted on telegram channels that he's received preferential treatment from the Kremlin. No pacifics, but clearly the Kremlin's grabbed this and have decided to make it into some propaganda win. It's all very murky, it's all a bit cat candid, but it is good item that Kremlin wants to pounce on. It is quite insightful. It doesn't seem to be working. 100 there are now reports of various flash mobs in Provincial Russia. And I'm not talking a lot. I'm talking a handful by entrepreneurs, by, by beauticians, by restaurant owners who are also complaining of exactly what Maximilian was complaining about. And they're now saying if you can help this guy, you can also help us. I'm not saying this is the beginning of the end. I'm just saying it's another sore, it's another ulcer that if we're looking at Russia and potential weaknesses, we need to keep monitoring.

[Dom Nichols]

So Putin's eating humble pie then?

[Francis Dernley]

How long were you thinking of that one, Dom?

[Dom Nichols]

I think about pies a lot. Just drawn one.

[Francis Dernley]

Well, thanks for that story, Jeremy. I think we're still reeling here from the one you were saying about the war memorial in the Urals. Just extraordinary. Speaking to the scale of the losses in some of those communities. We've been talking about this priority for the regime in Moscow to make sure that the losses are not in the major cities but are experienced in other parts of the country. And I think that really speaks to that story that we've been reporting now for the last almost four years. But before we go to Toby James, just I know that there was this interesting story relating to the US that caught your eye.

[James Kilner]

Yeah, right. Thank you very much, Francis, for letting me talk about Central Asia and South caucuses. Donald Trump at the end of last week ordering J.D. vance, that's the U.S. vice President, listen, as I'm sure know, to visit Azerbaijan in Armenia. Now, the importance is here. Vance will become the first U. S. Vice president ever to visit Armenia, became independent at the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 and he'll become the second USVP to visit Azerbaijan. Dick Cheney was there as vice president in 2008, that post Russia Georgia war period when Cheney was visiting. So the context is really important here. Vance is scheduled to be announced by John in Armenia next month, month as well. John and Amina, as you know, Frances are fettered and favored by Trump because they agreed to a peace deal last summer in August last year around a long running frozen conflict which went hot in 2020 and 2023. And Trump is claiming I was the guy who bought peace this region. That's all well and good, but what the US Is really trying to do here is trying to secure Armenia and Azerbaijan, ex Soviet states, pull it away from the Russian sphere of influence into the US Western sphere of influence. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have fallen out of Russia. Armenia has blamed the Kremlin for not defending it against azerbaijani aggression in 2023. Azerbaijan has fallen out of Kremlin over shooting down of an airliner, a passenger plane on Christmas Day of a Grozny in 2024. And Putin completely mishandled any apology in that and they had completely strained relations. So I can't overstate how important this is for listeners to watch out for. If Barnes does actually go to Amin and Azbaja and it'd be extraordinary. And it'll be really seeing the US Plant its flag in the south caucuses, which had been so loyal to the Kremlin for so long.

[Francis Dernley]

Well, James, thanks so much for your insight as ever. And we'll obviously come back to you for your final thoughts later on. And you may have some questions for Toby as well. And let's go to Toby now. Dialing in from Ukraine. Now, Toby, the last time that we saw each other was on a late night in Odessa during an air raid, actually, after the bars had shut. So it's great to have you on the podcast and be talking to you again. You are the head of mission at the Yashchenko foundation and we'll talk, I think first of all just broadly about the charity's work, but particularly then want to dive into a special project you've been working on that we've been talking about on the podcast for a long time, which relates to blood and specifically blood banks. But first of all, could you just give us a summary of the work of the foundation?

Absolutely. Thank you, Francis. Yes, I'm speaking to you from a very cold, dark apartment in Kyiv, much like the ones that Dom was mentioning earlier and dreaming of our days back in Odessa, where it was much warmer. But the Yashchenko foundation is a UK and Ukrainian registered charity that was founded by a team of us who have been working in Ukraine since the start of the full scale invasion in March 2020 22. We initially were providing evacuations from Cherniivska Oblast and then expanded to Sumska, Kharkivka, Zaporizhzhka and later to Hersonska Oblast, after which we developed an aid distribution network supporting those left in in those communities. But in March 2024, we decided to spin out all our programming in order to expand and professionalize our activity and to reach more more civilians in need across the country and decided to name the foundation in honor of my dear friend and our former colleague Maxim Yashchenko, who we lost on the front line in November 2023. And if you'll excuse me, just to have a quick word about Maxim, that he was one of the bravest and most committed humanitarians I've ever had the privilege of working with. And we, we still miss him desperately, but it's a privilege to carry on his legacy by working under his name. And the foundation itself really focuses on four main areas of activity or sectors. The first is the provision of water, hygiene, sanitation, support, both for emergency relief, but also supporting the reconstruction of water infrastructure and borehole refurbishment. Our second sector is in shelter, where we provide winterization, support vital repair materials for damaged buildings, and have a particular emphasis on supporting community led reconstruction in liberated communities such as in Cherniivsko or Mykolaivsk oblasts. And we're currently in the process of conducting a major emergency winter distribution, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and Zaporizhzhka Oblast. Really in response to this bitterly cold winter that I know you've been referring to so regularly. We also support communities with the provision of food and are helping farms to rehabilitate after liberation. But our largest sector is in health. And over the past six months alone, we've delivered more than $30 million worth of medication, about £23 million, to hospitals and communities across the entire country. This includes general medications, specialist treatments for cancer and other critical conditions, and also temperature controlled cold chain medicines that are so vital in frontline communities as well. Plus the Walking Blood bank program that I think we're about to discuss a bit further.

Yeah, absolutely. Well, it is one of those themes that we've talked about on the podcast. In the last few months, Ukraine is facing a critical shortage of blood. I see from the statistics that an estimated 24.5% of deaths and an even higher proportion of amputations could potentially be avoided if sufficient blood supplies were available at the point of need. And so, yes, tell us, Toby, about your program, the Walking Blood bank, which aims to eliminate those shortages.

Absolutely. I mean, you're absolutely right to quote those figures. And even before the full scale invasion, there was actually a shortage of blood in Ukraine, with two thirds of patients not receiving sufficient blood on time. But of course, the situation has become much more critical since 2024, and there are shortages of all types of blood across the country. Unfortunately, doctors across Ukraine are frequently forced to even appeal on their own social media for specific blood types, while they've got patients lying on an operating table simply to perform the operations. And patients are often asked to bring family members to act as donors. So Ukraine really needs a voluntary blood donor revolution. And that's what our program, the Walking Blood bank, is aiming to achieve in partnership with a national NGO called Donorua and a Danish company, Elden Biologicals, we've developed the walking blood bank that will provide free blood type tests using the Eldon Card, which is a rapid blood type test which could be used in the field and takes under 90 seconds to produce a result. The result in itself is actually vital information for people, particularly in frontline communities, as knowing your blood type can save vital minutes in an emergency. And I wonder for a moment if you Dom James and how many of your listeners actually know their blood type because it's such critical information in an emergency. But once people have tested their blood type, they're invited to join the Donorua blood donor database case. At which point should there be a particular peak in demand for a specific blood type, perhaps after one of the large mass casualty missile attacks, then those donors with a particular blood type will receive a push notification to their phone asking them immediately to report to the closest blood center or hospital to donate their blood. As we're in the process now of scaling up the program, which is funded by our amazing US partners, Direct Relief, we're significantly increasing the amount of donors we are recruiting. And already in the last couple of months We've tested over 40,000 people, recruiting thousands of new blood donors into the system. And YF's role in part in the program is providing that testing in frontline communities where the shortages are often the most severe, such as Mykolaevska, Hasonska, Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska Sumska, Cherniivska Oblast. And the goal ultimately of the program is to engage 750,000 new donors by determining over 2 million blood types across the country and reducing the critical shortage of blood there is here.

Well, thank you very much, Toby, for that overview and it's really great to be able to bring attention to this, given that we've been talking about this issue for quite some time. But I know General James, who I think the two of you know each other. It's a Small World has some questions for you.

[James Kilner]

Toby, hi. Nice to hear you on the pod. I'm just curious, your blood banks sounds like a really great project. How many do you deploy at any one time? Where do you deploy them? Do you deploy them in the major cities or are they towards the front lines? And how have working conditions for your blood banks and your staff changed in the last four years?

[Francis Dernley]

Thanks, James, and likewise. Very good to hear you too. So we don't operate the blood banks ourselves. The blood banks in Ukraine are run as state bodies. However, due to some of the historic ways in which state institutions have been set up in Ukraine, the blood centers themselves don't have a mandate to actually go out and recruit donors, and therefore they don't do it. So despite the fact they have a critical shortage of supplies, they're not proactively going out and engaging and recruiting prospective new donors. So that's really where the program comes in. Our field teams go out right across the country. They provide this community testing and registration of donors into the system for the relevant or respective blood banks and hospitals to then request a message gets sent out to those donors if they're in need of a particular blood type. But certainly over the last couple of months, the horrendous winter conditions have made all of that a lot more challenging. Not that in frontline locations it wasn't challenging before. And ensuring you don't have a sort of a congregation of civilians in any one area, as unfortunately they seem to far too often be seen as legitimate targets, is something we endeavor to avoid. And so we operated in frontline areas in a very different way to how the program operates in the big cities like Kyiv, Lviv, Dnipro, Odessa.

Well, thank you very much, Toby for your insights on this. Of course, we will have a link in the show notes to those who are interested in this subject. I know there are many, many listening who are involved in this world.

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[Francis Dernley]

Dom, where do you want to leave listeners?

[Dom Nichols]

Let's go back to Copenhagen. You'll remember a story I brought you yesterday. About 44 Danish flags have been planted in the, in the flag boxes out the front of the US embassy in Copenhagen. 44 because that's how many Danish service personnel lost their lives fighting in Afghanistan. This comes after Donald Trump's comments. Was it last weekend, I think, when he was talking about NATO holding back or not being in the front line, whatever, whatever. Those flags were removed. The embassy said in error. Just at the end of the day they were cleared away. I see today that they've gone back back. So if you are in Copenhagen, please do let me know. If this is an ongoing thing and if these flags, I think more than 44 have been placed overnight, if it's now a nightly thing, and if the embassy is letting them stay there and I see that there is going to be a demonstration, a march on Saturday out of respect for veterans, I think things are coming to a bit of a head in Copenhagen. But yeah, if you're there, please give us a temperature test, please. Let's take the temperature of Copenhagen at the moment and the U.S. embassy.

[Francis Dernley]

Thanks very much, Dom. I imagine Copenhagen's pretty, pretty chilly at the moment. But anyway, thank you very much. Let's go to James then. James, what do you want to leave listeners, my princes?

[James Kilner]

Just a quick one to update listeners on Ramzan Kadirov, the leader of Chechnya. He's been spotted in the Kremlin, I think it was this morning. It was due to link up with the UAE president's meeting with Putin. The reason I'm highlighting is that he's under a lot of pressure at the moment. If you remember, I reported that on Christmas Eve he was hospitalized apparently quite seriously, then reappeared on Chechnyan TV using a walking stick, which I'd never seen before in my two decades of reporting on him. And a week later, his son, Adam Kidirov and presumed air was injured in a car crash. One person was killed and Adam Kadir was airlifted to Moscow, apparently slightly badly injured, although that's all been a bit murky. But Kadira popped up this morning. There's a video of him in the Kremlin. The first time I think I'd seen an off the cuff interview with him since his illness on Christmas Eve and he is mumbling and slurring his words quite seriously. We've seen this before, but this was quite alarming. So again, I think putting Khadira back on healthwatch.

[Francis Dernley]

Thanks James. Toby, as ever, you've got the final word. Where would you like to leave listeners as our guest?

Thank you very much indeed, Francis and I just wanted to mention that Dom so expertly reads out at the start of each podcast about the numbers of civilians that have been killed or injured each day. But I really wanted to just reiterate that each one of those numbers is an individual and it's a family that has been forever changed, having lost children, parents, grandparents, and really coming up to four years on from the start of the full scale invasion. There are individuals here that don't really get very much attention, but they are the volunteers and we have some absolutely incredible volunteers in our team. Be it Irina down in Khasanska Oblast, whose home was destroyed during the Novgohovka flood, but yet she effectively from that moment on has been supporting her local community every single day. Despite her vehicle being hit by an FPV drone, she continues to do whatever she can to support her community. And likewise, volunteers Alexei and Natalia are up in Cherniivska Oblast, whose home was destroyed in the first month of the war. Yet despite Natalia's very serious illness, they continue to support their community to the best of their ability. And so really trying to remember that each of these individuals who either has been lost, such as Max, who we named the charity after, or these amazing volunteers day in, day out who are supporting their communities, really should be remembered as individuals as opposed to just numbers that sometimes it's so easy for us to forget that there are those individuals behind them.

Ukraine the Latest is an original podcast from the Telegraph created by David Knowles to support our work and stay on top of all of our Ukraine news, analysis and dispatches from the ground. Please subscribe to the Telegraph. You can get one month free, then two months for just one pound at www.telegraph.co.uk UkraineTest deploying cutting edge technology, we also release Ukrainian and Russian versions of this podcast. These translations retain our voices and delivery so that it can reach listeners in every region of Ukraine and those parts of Eastern Europe where Russian is still widely spoken. Links to those can be found in the podcast description to this episode. You can also now sign up to the New Ukraine, the latest weekly newsletter. Each week Dom Nichols and I answer your questions, provide recommended reading and give exclusive analysis and behind the scenes insights plus maps of the front lines and diagrams of weapons to complement our daily reporting. It's free for everyone, including non subscribers. You can find the link to sign up in the descriptions for this episode. We regularly have a Ukraine Live blog on our website where you can follow updates as they come in throughout the day, including insights from regular contributors to this podcast. We also do the same for other breaking international stories. If you appreciate our work, please consider following Ukraine the latest on your preferred podcast app and leave us a review as it really helps others find the show. Please also share it with those who may not be aware we exist. You can listen to this conversation live at 1pm London time each weekday on X Spaces. Follow the Telegraph so that you don't miss it. You can also get in touch directly to ask questions or give comments by emailing ukrainepodelegraph.co.uk we continue to read every message. You can also contact us directly on X. You'll find our handles in the description for this episode. As ever, we're especially interested to hear where you're listening from around the world. Ukraine the latest was today produced by Rachel Porter. Executive producers are Francis Dernley, Louisa Wells and David Knowles.

My name is David Knowles. Thank you all for listening.

[Dom Nichols]

Goodbye.

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