Podcast Summary: Un tema Al Día – "TACO: Trump, la gallina y el shock"

Host: Juanlu Sánchez
Guest: Carlos Hernández Echevarría (Director adjunto de Maldita.es)
Date: April 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the latest escalation between the United States and Iran under the presidency of Donald Trump. The host, Juanlu Sánchez, and U.S. analyst Carlos Hernández Echevarría dissect Trump's brinkmanship strategy—popularly known as "TACO" ("Trump Always Chickens Out")—and the impact of raising tensions with Iran, only to dial them back at the last moment. The discussion dives into whether this shock-style negotiation genuinely works, its risks, historical precedents, possible profiteering in financial markets, and the effects on Trump’s political base.

Key Discussion Points

1. Trump’s Genocidal Threats and the Iran Ultimatum

• Timestamps: [00:05]–[03:12]
• On March 21, Trump threatened Iran with the destruction of its power infrastructure if it didn’t open the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. When ignored, he intensified warnings and set repeated ultimatums.
• On April 6, with tensions at a peak and global markets rattled, Trump suddenly announced a diplomatic pause, accepting a 15-day ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.

Quote:
"Era por escrito el anuncio de un genocidio y las alarmas internacionales saltan. ¿De verdad es capaz de hacerlo? Sabemos que es capaz de hacerlo, pero ¿De verdad será capaz de hacerlo?"
—Juanlu Sánchez [01:50]

2. What is “TACO” and Why is it Called That?

• Timestamps: [03:12]–[04:12]
• TACO: "Trump Always Chickens Out"—refers to Trump’s pattern of extreme threats, followed by last-minute retreats, often spun as negotiating wins.

Quote:
"La traducción en español mejor sería Trump siempre se raja, aunque más literal y más graciosa sería Trump siempre hace la gallinita."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [03:25]

3. Does Trump Truly “Always” Back Down?

• Timestamps: [04:12]–[05:21]
• The guest stresses that Trump doesn’t always back off: sometimes he carries out dramatic actions, e.g., the Venezuelan crisis with Maduro, military deployments. The “always” in “TACO” is misleading and dangerous.

Quote:
"No siempre... muchas veces Trump dice que va a hacer una barbaridad y va y la hace. Hay que tener cuidado con identificar esto del taco como un chistecito de no te preocupes que luego en el fondo siempre se raja."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [04:27]

4. Tracing the Pattern: Past Trump “TACO” Moments

• Timestamps: [05:21]–[07:44]
• The approach predates his presidency and has occurred in both domestic and foreign arenas—trade wars, threats to cities like San Francisco, and international escalations (e.g., North Korea).
• The core method: escalate, threaten worst-case scenarios, then step back or claim a "deal."

Quote:
"Durante su primer mandato... también le dijo a Corea del Norte, 'ojo, como tenga que entrar ahí, te voy a destruir totalmente.' Y luego, pues al rato estaba dándose besos en la frontera."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [06:35]

5. Roots in Trump’s Negotiation Philosophy (“The Art of the Deal”)

• Timestamps: [07:44]–[09:51]
• Trump's own words advocate negotiating from extreme positions to maximize leverage—threatening total destruction, then accepting less.
• His reputation as a tough negotiator hinges on instilling fear, which sometimes works but carries immense risk.

Quote:
"Lo ha reconocido abiertamente en ese libro famoso best seller que escribió del arte de hacer un buen trato, de Art of the Deal, lo explica: tú tienes que negociar siempre desde la fuerza, cuanta más fuerza tengas mejor."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [07:57]

6. Comparison to the “Shock Doctrine”

• Timestamps: [09:51]–[11:07]
• The host links Trump’s method to Naomi Klein’s “Shock Doctrine,” where crisis and confusion are weaponized to force outcomes.
• The unpredictability is part performance, part impulsivity: Trump alternates between threat and conciliation, keeping everyone off balance.

Quote:
"El poli bueno y el polimalo es el mismo... a veces te intenta dar la mano pero a la vez siempre te está amenazando."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [10:42]

7. Calls for Removal: Is Trump “Incapacitated” for Office?

• Timestamps: [11:07]–[12:43]
• Some Democrats claim Trump’s threats show mental incapacity, desiring to trigger Constitutional removal. Carlos calls this “soñar despierto” (wishful thinking), seeing no political path for such action.

Quote:
"La idea de que el propio gobierno de Trump... se va a poner de acuerdo para en una votación inhabilitar al presidente… eso es soñar despierto."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [11:31]

8. Will the “TACO” Work with Iran This Time?

• Timestamps: [12:43]–[14:17]
• Trump has bought time (15-day ceasefire), but Carlos questions whether the “solution” just resolves a crisis of Trump’s own making, with ambiguous gains and immense costs.

Quote:
"Si de lo que se trata es de solucionar un problema que el propio Trump ha creado y cantar victoria y marcharse, es perfectamente posible."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [13:18]

9. Insider Trading and Market Manipulation Concerns

• Timestamps: [14:17]–[16:43]
• Speculation grows over suspicious stock and betting market activity timed precisely with Trump’s public threats and their subsequent de-escalation, suggesting some may profit from insider information.

Quote:
"Hay buena evidencia de que hay gente que de algún modo ha sabido en el momento justo lo que iba a decir Trump o lo que iba a hacer Trump y ha ganado dinero con eso."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [16:18]

10. Impact on Trump’s Base and Political Future

• Timestamps: [16:43]–[18:43]
• Despite anger in Trump’s radical MAGA base, Carlos sees little real risk for Trump’s core support. However, the instability harms his appeal to key independent voters, evoking echoes of 2020’s pandemic mismanagement.

Quote:
"Si tú no te has bajado del carro de Trump ya, cada vez es más difícil que te bajes... pero le está dañando mucho con el votante independiente de EEUU."
—Carlos Hernández Echevarría [17:19]

Notable Quotes

• "Trump Always Chickens Out. Es la forma que tiene de llamar mucha gente un poco de cachonderíto en EE.UU. a esta práctica..."
  —Carlos Hernández Echevarría [03:25]

• "Es irresponsable, pero no significa que sea ingenuo. Es deliberado porque es una técnica. Y entiendo, Carlos, que a Trump le parece que funciona."
  —Juanlu Sánchez [07:44]

• "Es una crisis en la que Trump ha decidido él mismo meterse de cabeza porque ha querido."
  —Carlos Hernández Echevarría [18:36]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |---------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:05 | Recap of Trump–Iran standoff, threats of annihilation | | 03:12 | The “TACO” concept explained | | 05:21 | Historical pattern of TACO in Trump’s career | | 07:44 | Connection to Trump’s negotiation philosophy (“Art of the Deal”) | | 09:51 | Parallel to the “Shock Doctrine” | | 11:07 | Democratic calls for Trump’s removal for incapacity | | 12:43 | Analysis: Will “TACO” work this time with Iran? | | 14:17 | Financial markets and suspicious trading around announcements | | 16:43 | Political implications for Trump’s base and independents |

Memorable Moments

• The boiling-point dramatization of Trump’s threat (“anunciar un genocidio”) and the subsequent sudden “deal.”
• The vivid discussion on the absurdity and danger of relying on “TACO” as always ending in retreat.
• The analogy to a “bad cop/good cop” routine—all in one, unpredictable person.
• The strong skepticism regarding the removal of Trump through constitutional mechanisms.
• The finale’s framing: is Trump just creating fires to then pose as the fireman? What does it really accomplish, and at what cost?

This episode offers a crisp, critical, and sometimes darkly humorous look at Trump’s methods on the world stage, their predictability (or not), and ripple effects across politics and markets—essential listening for any followers of international affairs or U.S. politics.