Uncapped #27 | Vince Hankes from Thrive Capital

Host: Jack Altman (Alt Capital)
Guest: Vince Hankes (Thrive Capital)
Date: October 8, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep conversation between Jack Altman and Vince Hankes, a partner at Thrive Capital, about the evolution and strategy of Thrive, bold investment philosophies, the changing dynamics of late-stage venture investing, and in-depth perspectives on sectors influenced by AI, robotics, and life sciences. The discussion covers Thrive’s approach to concentrated investing, the power law in venture, organizational culture, and detailed stories behind some of the firm’s major investments, offering rare insight into how one of the most prominent growth-oriented venture firms in the world navigates today’s competitive landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Evolution of Thrive Capital

• Thrive was founded in 2009 by Josh at 26 years old, with a $10M fund, growing into a $5B platform (00:50–02:50).
• Early days: outsider mentality; began in New York, not Silicon Valley; recruited contrarian, self-selected talent.
• "All those people did something that was unobvious at the time... A big part of [Thrive’s] evolution is the people that self-selected into this environment that was different." – Vince Hankes (02:59)
• Today, Thrive focuses on recruiting talent that isn’t just inbound, but actively sought after—especially those not seeking to join “consensus” firms (03:12–03:51).

2. From Insider to Outsider—and Back

• Thrive’s outsider approach (starting in New York, younger team) allowed for non-traditional, contrarian bets, like Instagram and GitHub (04:22–06:42).
• The firm’s willingness to partner deeply (e.g., sending a partner as interim CFO at GitHub) differentiated their hands-on style (05:12–06:42).
• Thrive’s major Stripe investment was rooted not just in numbers, but in long-term vision and conviction built over years. When the market was skeptical, Thrive committed $2B and helped lead the round (06:42–07:43).
  • "You have to have almost dogmatic conviction. It’s going to work." – Vince (00:00, 20:26)

3. Investment Philosophy: Concentration and the Power Law

• Thrive concentrates its capital into 10–12 core companies per growth fund, seeking generational, $100B+ outcomes (10:36–12:01).
  • “If you believe the power law is true, it’s in some sense easier to catch a company that’s really established going to $100B than try to pick the breakout from a pack of a few thousand.” – Vince (10:36)
• Data: 75 companies have reached $100B+ in the last decade, and the odds favor focusing on these outliers rather than picking among thousands of unicorns (11:04–12:14).

4. The Value of Scale, Compounding, and Founder-Led Firms

• Rise of mega-companies with compounding advantages explained by decades of internet/mobile proliferation (13:04–13:55).
• The second and third decades of today’s giants (Stripe, Airbnb, DoorDash, etc.) represent their true value-creation phase.
• Scale advantages: distribution, ability to ship new products, talent flywheel, and entrenched markets (14:15).
• Not all tech rises together—scale selectively rewards well-positioned, founder-driven companies (14:15–15:35).

5. Current Venture Landscape: Saturation and Increased Competition

• “The real growth investing happens when you can actually wrap your head around something that’s solidified and then you can look at the data to substantiate it.” – Vince (16:19)
• A glut of $100M+ rounds and over-capitalized companies makes early/mid-stage investing far more competitive and risk-prone; Thrive “barbells” its strategy (17:37–18:10).
• Skepticism around middle-stage, overfunded rounds; concentration and discipline is seen as key.

6. Organizational Model: Culture, Conviction, & Decision-Making

• Thrive’s concentrated model allows deep, multi-year conviction before deploying large checks (20:26).
  • Example: 18 months leading up to Isomorphic investment; over 10 years knowing Stripe.
• Small, founder-led partnerships built for bold bets; fewer partners helps avoid politics and enables decisive moves (24:45).
  • “It’s unnatural for a single partner to want to make that big of a bet because it feels like career risk every time you do it.” – Vince (24:45)

7. Case Study: Carvana Investment

• Thrive’s public-market investment in Carvana exemplified deep conviction—doubling down even as stock fell 90% (26:46–32:49).
  • Key: focus on product, team continuity, owning the risk-reward equation, and willingness to weather psychological stress (“Every day you wake up down 5%... If that happened in private markets, no way. No one could do this job.” – Vince, 29:31)
  • The Thrive team and LPs “went through a lot,” highlighting the difficulty and rewards of bold, contrarian moves (32:34).

8. Conflict Management and Full-Stack Investing

• Thrive’s commitment to its core investments leads to careful navigation of conflicts, sometimes passing on later-stage deals in overlapping categories (33:05–34:16).
• Full-stack investing (across stages or structures) can be both an advantage and a source of constraints.

9. AI, Life Science, and Robotics: The Next Frontiers

• AI: Thrive evaluates opportunities at multiple levels of the stack—from infrastructure and model providers (like OpenAI) to vertical-specific applications (Rogo in finance, Harvey and Legora in legal).
  • The economic equation of AI application layers remains uncertain, but distribution and product moat matter (41:58–43:01).
  • Significant value currently sits at the hardware (Nvidia) and large model level (OpenAI, Anthropic).
• Life Sciences: “Drug development should radically change” as AI-driven simulation and experimentation compress timelines and improve outcomes (38:11–40:41).
  • Isomorphic (a Google spinout) is aiming to “cure all disease,” with multi-trillion-dollar industry potential.
• Robotics: Seen as the next massive market (50:01–51:31). The “physical intelligence” frontier, where consumer robots could eclipse the car industry in market size.

10. The Changing Role of Incumbents

• Incumbents today are much stronger owing to better global distribution and technology.
  • “My mental model for how the competitive landscape looks for OpenAI is OpenAI’s in a corner and every big tech company has a bazooka pointing at them.” – Vince (54:15)
• The challenge for new startups is breaking into this era of behemoths. Thrive’s bias: only pursue new investments when return/risk is better than doubling down on dominant existing positions (55:14–55:49).

11. Looking Ahead: Talent, Adaptation, and Firm Evolution

• Thrive’s future depends on remaining attractive to the most ambitious young people and continually evolving its approach (56:25–57:27).
  • “What worked for the last decade is not going to work for the next decade. You have to evolve... If we’re not able to attract that kind of person, will we attract the right companies and founders?” – Vince (56:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Building Conviction:
  “You have to have almost dogmatic conviction. It’s going to work.” – Vince (00:00, 20:26)

• On Outsider Mentality:
  “No one knew Thrive Capital, no one really knew Josh. But then it’s Instagram, this hot company… and everyone’s like, well, who’s Thrive Capital?” – Vince (05:12)

• On Concentration & Power Law:
  “If you believe the power law is true, it’s in some sense easier to catch a company that’s really established going to $100B than try to pick the breakout from a pack of a few thousand.” – Vince (10:36)

• On Riding Out Risk:
  “Every day you wake up down 5%, down 4%, down 5%... If that happened in private markets, no way. No one could do this job.” – Vince (29:31)

• On Talent Flywheels:
  “If you’re a young person, where do you want to work? You want to work at OpenAI or SpaceX. Which by the way wasn’t true 10 years ago.” – Jack (14:40)

• On Culture Enabling Bold Moves:
  “It took having the ability, one, to operate in a culture where people are used to making big, bold bets… If you’re not used to that, I would have got fired.” – Vince (31:01)

• On Incumbent Power:
  “OpenAI’s in a corner and every big tech company has a bazooka pointing at them to try to take them down. Because none of those big tech companies want a new big tech company.” – Vince (54:15)

• On Evolution:
  “You evolve or die in this industry.” – Vince (57:26)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:50] – Thrive’s early days and unique founding story
• [04:22] – The Instagram investment: the original bold bet
• [06:42] – Building conviction for Stripe’s $2B round
• [10:36] – Power law, the odds of $100B+ companies, and concentration
• [13:04] – Compounding scale and the second decade of tech giants
• [17:06] – Investment strategies in the current saturated market
• [20:26] – The long, deliberate process behind concentrated investments
• [26:46] – Deep dive: Carvana investment arc
• [33:05] – Navigating conflicts and full-stack investing
• [38:11] – AI-driven radical changes in life sciences
• [41:58] – Where value accrues in the AI stack; Nvidia's dominance
• [45:49] – Vertical AI workspaces: legal, financial, and early adopter dynamics
• [50:01] – Robotics as the next trillion-dollar opportunity
• [54:15] – The power and threat of modern incumbents
• [56:25] – The necessity of evolution and attracting talent

Final Thoughts

This episode presents an unvarnished, strategy-rich look at late-stage venture capital. Vince Hankes’ candid, granular answers describe not only Thrive Capital’s journey but the mental models powering their biggest bets. From Carvana’s nail-biting volatility to why AI drug discovery rivals OpenAI in ambition, listeners are offered a rare window into both the calculations and culture behind bold investing. The themes—dogmatic conviction, power law focus, organization design, and adapting with the times—resonate throughout and provide a useful playbook for anyone interested in the future of venture and innovation.