Podcast Summary: Uncapped with Jack Altman
Episode: #34 | Mel Williams from TrueBridge
Date: November 25, 2025
Host: Jack Altman (Alt Capital)
Guest: Mel Williams (Co-founder, TrueBridge)
Episode Overview
Main Theme:
Jack Altman hosts Mel Williams to explore the nuanced art of institutional venture investing—from picking the best VCs and funds, to dissecting power laws in returns, the current state of AI-driven froth, fund structures, and what truly differentiates great LPs and VCs in today’s hyper-competitive ecosystem. The conversation navigates the seismic shifts in tech and venture capital, fundamentals for emerging managers, and essential LP wisdom.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Current State of Venture in 2025
- Excitement and Froth Around AI:
- Venture is at the dawn of an AI wave expected to fuel returns for the next 10–15 years. There’s palpable evidence of real value and rapid growth, yet early-stage valuations are “very high, maybe frothy” (01:35).
- "I think overall our sentiment is excitement. We think we are at the leading stages of an AI wave that will power business opportunities and return generation over the next 10 to 15 years." — Mel Williams (01:35)
- Disparities Inside and Outside AI:
- Outside AI (hardware, defense, consumer), markets are “reasonable if not attractive.” Milestone-based investing and more attractive valuations prevail (03:50).
2. Market Risks and Power Law Dynamics
- Booms, Busts & Power Laws:
- Why Winners Magnify:
- Lower marginal cost of software, more rapid adoption by enterprises and consumers, and faster revenue ramps.
- “Society has embraced tech as a potential solution more so; I think we're seeing the ramp faster.” — Mel Williams (05:34)
3. Talent Dynamics
- The market for technical talent is more competitive, with giants like OpenAI and Meta now magnetizing even startup-minded employees (06:18).
- “The value of signal in this market is magnified... attracting capital and talent and customers at a rate we haven't seen before.” — Mel Williams (07:03)
4. Portfolio Construction: Platforms vs. Individuals
- Platform Funds vs. Boutique Players:
- TrueBridge likes both premier platforms and specialist managers with unique edges (07:45).
- Enthusiastic about the “power law” dynamic: “Returns are generated by the companies you’re invested in that end up being winners, and less so by the valuation at which you entered those companies.” — Mel Williams (07:45)
- Concern for the Long Tail:
- “Worried about the long tail of venture in this cycle... The signaling effect is so strong that the brands have real advantages” (09:02).
5. The Consensus vs. Contrarian Debate (09:36)
- Reactions to debate: Is “good investing” just consensus investing?
- Mel: “As we look at the market today, 90% of the market is chasing the heat and chasing the signal, and 10% of the market is the signal. Sequoia is the signal. Peter Thiel is the signal.”
- Both matter: Great firms create and chase signal.
6. The Dominance and Scale of Venture Brands
- “Brands matter. Good brands equal positive signal in the marketplace. And positive signal has real positive meaning for founders”—for valuation, follow-on, talent, customers, and regulation (12:05).
- Strategic advice to founders: Sometimes it’s better to take a lower valuation from a top brand because of lifecycle capital and support (13:25).
7. The Fund Size Debate
- Acknowledges both Josh Kopelman’s (First Round) and Marc Andreessen’s perspectives:
- The right question: Fund size should scale in relation to the firm’s capability, investment team, conviction, and strategy; rapid size increases cause issues (16:16).
8. Concentration & Investing Style
- Highest-performing VCs are:
- Contrarian or first-principles thinkers (the signal, not the follower)
- Willing to concentrate capital in winners with conviction (18:18, 19:14)
- “When they see it working and they see a win in their portfolio, they’re willing to push their chips on the table. That’s how the highest performing funds generate returns.” — Mel Williams (19:15)
- Typical concentrated portfolios: 11–13 companies, with 60–70% of NAV in the top three winners (19:50).
9. TrueBridge’s Approach to Emerging Managers
- Institutions struggle with seed: “Branded platform firms have always struggled to invest effectively in seed... so we want exposure with people solely focused on that segment” (21:12).
- Seed allocation: Focus on concentrated investments with “the best in class” managers, not broad exposure (22:37).
- For TrueBridge, it's "more people driven" than strategy; unique access, strong investment judgment, and personal brand are key (23:45).
10. Case Studies & Misses
- Best Hits:
- Backed Sunil Dhaliwal (Amplify), Jason Green (Emergence), and most notably, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund at its institutional inception (25:18).
- Biggest Miss:
11. Durability of Venture Brands
- Venture firms are hard to kill due to:
- Highly diversified, ever-growing LP base.
- Difficult for many LPs to distinguish between luck and skill (network and reference checks crucial).
- Long feedback loops: A firm can raise several funds before performance is really evident (30:44-33:06).
12. TrueBridge’s Concentration Over Time
- Started with 18 managers in Fund I (2007); now, Fund VIII will be 11–12 managers—an intentional, annual re-ranking/concentration process (33:32).
- Always operates under capital constraint: “We like investing from a capital constrained position because it forces us to make these tough choices” (35:57).
13. Advice to Aspiring LPs (37:14)
- Build Relationships:
- “You're only as good as your network... really focus on building authentic, personal relationships.”
- Be Realistic About “Signal”:
- “Follow the signal, try not to be the signal. I think it’s really hard to be the signal. I think you have to be exceptional.”
- Early LPs should be patient—“It takes time, you have to build network, see patterns, and only then can you really be the signal.”
- LP business is forgiving on missed early bets: “There’s not no cost, but those costs are low to missing the first fund. I’d rather cry over the investments I didn’t do than the ones I did put in the portfolio.” (38:55)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 01:35 | “We think we are at the leading stages of an AI wave that will power business opportunities and return generation over the next 10 to 15 years.” | Mel Williams | | 04:47 | “We’re going to see a lot of carnage... and we will see more value created over the next 10 years than we've seen in the venture industry.” | Mel Williams | | 05:34 | “Society has embraced tech as a potential solution more so; I think we're seeing the ramp faster.” | Mel Williams | | 07:03 | “The value of Signal in this market is magnified...” | Mel Williams | | 09:02 | “Worried about the long tail of venture... The signaling effect is so strong that the brands have real advantages.” | Mel Williams | | 12:05 | “Brands matter. Good brands equal positive signal in the marketplace.” | Mel Williams | | 14:58 | “Fund size does matter. It's hard to overcome the math. Right. Josh is right. You're less likely to turn a billion or two or $3 billion ten times than you are $100 million. But... often the largest fund in the market is the highest returning fund.” | Mel Williams | | 18:18 | “The two characteristics that we've identified over, over, you know, our history... Number one is a combination of contrarian investing or first principles investing... Number two, they have conviction.” | Mel Williams | | 25:18 | “Perhaps our best decision in the history of our firm... was the decision to back Peter Thiel and his partners at Founders Fund... Not conventional but turned out very well.” | Mel Williams | | 33:32 | “We started... in 07 thinking that building a concentrated portfolio of the best performing managers... was the best way to generate outsized returns. We are investing fund eight today... will be across 11 or 12 core managers. So we've consistently concentrated our portfolio over time.” | Mel Williams | | 37:14 | “You're only as good as your network... really focus on building authentic personal relationships with people in the industry.” | Mel Williams | | 38:16 | “Follow the signal, try not to be the signal.” | Mel Williams |
Important Timestamps & Segments
- [01:35] – State of Venture and AI-driven Market
- [04:47] – Risks & Power Law Paradox
- [07:45] – Platforms vs. Boutique Managers in Venture
- [14:58] – The Great Fund Size Debate (with reference to Josh Kopelman & Marc Andreessen)
- [18:18] – Two Traits of Exceptional Investors: Contrarian and Conviction
- [25:18] – “Best Bets” Case Studies (Founders Fund, Amplify, Emergence)
- [28:02] – Missing First Round’s First Fund (and lessons learned)
- [33:32] – TrueBridge Portfolio Concentration Philosophy
- [37:14] – LP Career Advice: Network and Signal
Takeaways for Listeners
- The power law rules all—selecting exceptional managers and having patience beat chasing every hot trend.
- Brand, signal, and network effect are central to both fundraising and venture success, whether you’re a founder, VC, or LP.
- Concentration (in both companies and fund relationships) and having the conviction to “push your chips in” distinguish the top performers.
- For aspiring LPs, authentic relationships and learning to “follow the signal” matter more than swinging for the fences on day one.
Episode’s Tone
Candid, insightful, and analytical—deliberate reflections from a seasoned LP, with Jack Altman’s curiosity prompting practical wisdom for practitioners at every level of venture capital.