Unchained – Bits + Bips: How AI and Energy Prices Will Force the Fed’s Hand

Host: Laura Shin
Panel: Austin Campbell, Ram Alawalia, Chris Perkins, Danny Ives
Date: January 15, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delves deep into how artificial intelligence (AI) and rising energy prices are shaping macroeconomics, influencing Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and driving shifts in crypto and global markets. The panel — spanning expertise from zero-knowledge proofs to traditional finance and AI — analyzes the shifting landscape, examining how productivity gains from AI, energy bottlenecks, and macro-political maneuvers, especially involving the Fed's independence, spill over into asset prices and crypto adoption. Tying in live policy debates, sector analysis, and notable current events, the discussion probes the intersection of macro, tech, energy, and crypto.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fed Independence and Political Pressures

Segment: 02:37–10:11

• Backdrop: Recent political moves threaten Federal Reserve independence; President Trump denies involvement, but the market reacts to rumors about Powell’s testimony and Fed renovations.
• Market Response: Stocks are stable, but gold and bitcoin surge — signaling hedging on Fed uncertainty.
• Panel Analysis:
  • Rahm laments economic populism at play, warning that proposed populist measures (like capping credit interest at 10%) are ultimately inflationary, even if not immediately so.
    • Quote [03:52]: “It’s economic populism on steroids. ... These are ultimately inflationary policies.” (Rahm Alawalia)
  • Chris highlights the Fed's struggle to remain apolitical; speculates Powell may hesitate to lower rates now to avoid the appearance of political acquiescence.
    • AI and Venezuela are seen as counteracting inflationary/energy shocks.
    • Quote [04:54]: "Bitcoin isn't quite digital gold yet. It's a risk asset and very, very sensitive to the behavior of the Fed." (Chris Perkins)
  • Danny shrugs off immediate market risks, noting investors are already eyeing rate cuts and the potential dovishness of Fed replacements.

2. AI’s Dual Impact: Disinflationary Productivity or Inflationary Inputs?

Segment: 10:11–14:23

• Disinflation Hopes vs. Input Inflation:

  • AI is broadly expected to bring disinflation via productivity. But panelists note a surge in prices for DRAM, GPUs, and other AI infrastructure (memory “super cycle”), stoking inflation instead.
  • Austin tells a story illustrating Powell’s reputation within the Fed: dedicated, studious, and non-political, which increases internal turmoil as markets become a battleground of interpretations over AI's true impact.
  • Rahm breaks down the nuance: AI fights labor market inflation via productivity but can’t dampen commodity price inflation, which is surging on dollar weakness and trade war spillover.

• Quote [13:41]: "For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. Energy's the biggest constraint... and price points are going up." (Danny Ives)

3. Energy Bottleneck: The Limiting Factor for AI Expansion

Segment: 14:23–20:32

• Critical Question: Can energy infrastructure keep up with AI-driven demand? Will energy become the “new memory” issue?
• Chris frames nuclear as the only real solution for meeting massive energy needs quickly, but regulatory delays stymie deployment.
  • Quote [15:04]: "We've mastered this [nuclear] technology. ... What's holding us back is regulation." (Chris Perkins)
• Danny and Rahm agree nuclear is “the answer,” but warn the timeline is too slow — real-world impact isn’t imminent, and China is ahead.
  • Rahm draws parallels to past “hype cycles” like biotech, where asset prices outpaced real productivity for decades.
• Energy Trades: Panel sees near-term opportunity in natural gas/LNG; energy is now a leading "AI trade" because it underpins digital expansion.

4. AI Hardware Supply Chain Squeeze

Segment: 21:27–24:37

• Danny flags the emerging cost crunch in PC/smartphone hardware cycles: spiking memory costs will compress margins for device makers, with input players like Micron, SK Hynix, and Lam Research positioned for outsized gains.
  • Rahm and Danny discuss the durability of this "memory super cycle" with ongoing high demand into 2027.
  • Quote [23:01]: “Micron’s still cheap... this is a memory super cycle.” (Danny Ives)

5. CES 2026 & Physical AI: The Next Leap

Segment: 24:59–26:49

• Danny reports from CES: The year’s defining theme is the dawn of "physical AI" (robotics, autonomous vehicles). Both Tesla and Nvidia are seen as primary winners.
  • Tesla is likely to dominate autonomous vehicles following anticipated federal regulatory changes.
  • Nvidia is undervalued for the "physical AI" opportunity; investors are only pricing in data center revenue.
  • Quote [26:49]: "At the end of the day, the winner when it comes to physical AI... there's two. It's Tesla and Nvidia." (Danny Ives)

6. OpenAI: Building or Bubble?

Segment: 28:33–33:54

• Rahm calls OpenAI's $850B valuation and fundraising plans a bubble, noting the structure requires perpetual refinancing to support the ecosystem and Nvidia's profits.
  • "They’ve got $1 trillion in committed obligations... so long as they can raise the funds, the music keeps playing." (Rahm Alawalia [28:33])
• Danny pushes back, arguing AI is still in early innings, building new foundational economy layers — comparisons to Amazon’s early days. But acknowledges OpenAI must "prove it" soon.

7. Stablecoins, Crypto, and Market Structure Act

Segment: 37:10–48:48

• A spirited discussion on the Market Structure Act, especially the battle over interest (“rewards”) on stablecoins.
• Chris sees this as a game of negotiation with banks; regulatory maneuvering (capital relief, etc.) is key.
• Austin and Rahm foresee impasses over ethics language and the difficulty of passing anything meaningful before the election.
  • Quote [41:50]: “If nothing else, this thing is just going to grind to a halt.” (Austin Campbell)
• Community banks, caught between G-SIBs, fintechs, and tech obsolescence, must adopt DeFi/crypto integration or get swallowed.
  • Rahm: "If you're a community bank owner, give me a call and focus on this topic, I've thought about this one or two times." [48:41]

8. Venezuela, Tether, and the Weaponization of Stablecoins

Segment: 48:48–53:06

• The recent freeze on USDT in Venezuela exposes how deeply stablecoins are embedded in emerging market economies, both for sanctioned activity and as a hedge against local regimes.
• Chris frames stablecoins as a "most significant instrument of national power" — the ability to freeze/seize is both a tool and a threat to trust.
  • Quote [49:45]: “Stablecoins are the most significant instrument of national power... with freeze and seize capabilities, it’s very, very powerful.” (Chris Perkins)
• Rahm notes that stablecoins are dollarizing emerging markets, advancing US interests, but also expose the tension between “sovereign digital money” and regulated fintech products.

9. Bitcoin as the Hedge of Last Resort

Segment: 52:13–53:30

• Austin closes by contrasting the permissioned, interdictable nature of stablecoins with the censorship-resistant value of Bitcoin.
  • “If people continually undermine a belief in the currency or a central bank, people are going to substitute to Bitcoin.” (Austin Campbell [52:13])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It’s economic populism on steroids... not in the near term, but they are inflationary." (Rahm, 03:52)
• "Bitcoin isn't quite digital gold yet. It's a risk asset and very, very sensitive to the behavior of the Fed." (Chris, 04:54)
• "For the first time in 30 years, the US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. Energy's the biggest constraint in the US." (Danny, 13:41)
• "We've mastered [nuclear] technology. What's holding us back is regulation." (Chris, 15:04)
• "Micron’s still cheap... this is a memory super cycle." (Danny, 23:01)
• "At the end of the day, the winner when it comes to physical AI... there's two. It's Tesla and Nvidia." (Danny, 26:49)
• "Stablecoins are the most significant instrument of national power... with freeze and seize capabilities, it’s very, very powerful." (Chris, 49:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:37 – Fed’s political spat & market reaction
• 10:11 – How AI might cause both deflation and inflation
• 14:23 – Nuclear's promise & US energy bottlenecks
• 21:27 – Hardware input crises for the AI boom
• 24:59 – CES: Rise of physical AI and robotics
• 28:33 – OpenAI funding debate: Bubble or new Amazon?
• 37:10 – Market Structure Act wrangling, stablecoin lobby wars
• 48:48 – Venezuela, USDT freezes, power of stablecoins
• 52:13 – Bitcoin as hedge against state overreach

Overall Tone and Takeaways

The episode is fast-paced, sharply analytical, and peppered with insider anecdotes, macro lessons, and a forward-looking skepticism. The mood is neither doom-laden nor utopian; the panel understands cycles, hype, and hard policy limits — and brings deep experience in both tech and finance. They see the convergence of AI and crypto as both a source of volatility and a vector of long-term, possibly disinflationary, possibly inflationary, profound change. They repeatedly stress the difficulty of making clean predictions when so many moving parts — from Fed politics to hardware supply chains to energy and geopolitics — are colliding at once.

For anyone wanting to understand the interplay between AI, energy, macro policy, and crypto as of early 2026, this episode is both accessible and deeply informed.