Unchained Podcast Summary

Episode: Why Bitcoin Has Fallen Behind Gold & What Could Come Next
Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Vinny Lingham (Co-Founder & President of Zash), Eric Fine (Portfolio Manager at VanEck)
Date: January 16, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into why gold has outperformed bitcoin recently, examines the shifting role of reserve assets globally, and explores what comes next for both traditional and crypto-backed money. Laura Shin speaks first with Vinny Lingham, serial entrepreneur and longtime “OG” Bitcoiner, who explains his growing focus on gold—including the launch of his new gold-backed stablecoin, Zash. In the second half, Laura hosts Eric Fine from VanEck to unpack the macroeconomic realities driving the surge in gold, share his analysis of gold’s “fair value” if it truly returned to the center of the global monetary system, and consider the interplay between gold, bitcoin, and other currencies.

Part 1: Vinny Lingham on Gold’s Resurgence and the Zash Stablecoin

The Market’s Shift: Why Gold Over Bitcoin? (02:00)

• Global Skepticism Toward US Fiscal Policy:

  • World losing faith in US ability to curb spending (military, deficits).
  • Foreigners need to sell US assets to pay debts; central banks shifting reserves.

• Gold’s Unique Characteristics:

  • Now number one global reserve asset—overtaking US Treasuries.
  • Gold’s scarcity: “All the gold in the world fits on less than 10% of the largest oil tanker in the world.” (03:10, Vinny Lingham)
  • Highly liquid $33-$34 trillion market.
  • Predicts gold could reach $10,000/oz within two years.
  • “Gold is effectively the neutral reserve asset of the world. And I think we're heading for a reckoning at some point.” (03:54, Vinny Lingham)

Why Bitcoin Isn’t Filling Gold’s Shoes (04:24, 13:10)

• Liquidity & Regulatory Barriers:
  • Bitcoin ($2 trillion cap) still too small to serve as a global reserve.
  • Central banks aren’t allowed to buy bitcoin as a reserve asset in times of crisis—so they buy gold.
• Lost Narrative & Use-Case:
  • “Back in 2013, 2014 my company Gift did like 5% of all blockchain transactions…Then a bunch of changes were made and bitcoin ceased to function as electronic cash.” (04:44, Vinny Lingham)
  • Shifted from ‘peer-to-peer electronic cash’ to ‘digital gold’, sacrificing liquidity and payment utility.
• Performance:
  • “Bitcoin has, in some ways, failed to live up to the promise of what digital gold was supposed to be 8, 9 years ago…The growth has stalled in bitcoin. It hasn't been the top-performing asset in the past four or five years. Gold has.” (05:41, Vinny Lingham)

Personal Allocation & Crypto Concerns (06:39)

• Vinny describes himself as ‘very light on bitcoin’—prefers property, businesses, equities, and gold.
• “If you want to put large amounts of money into crypto, it’s kind of dangerous.” (07:39, Vinny Lingham)
• Views crypto as better suited for active traders or those with smaller positions and high risk appetites.

Announcing Zash: Gold-Backed Stablecoin with Rewards (08:26 onwards)

• Core Premise:
  • “The best use case for crypto is being able to settle payments outside the banking system…But people don’t get to participate in the value of these companies.” (08:49, Vinny Lingham)
• How Zash Works:
  • Fully gold-backed, over-collateralized stablecoin.
  • Stablecoin holders can earn rewards tied to the performance of the gold reserve (within regulatory constraints on “interest”).
  • “If gold goes up 25% in a year…those gains would be paid out to the rewards holders.” (11:51, Vinny Lingham)
  • Built chain-agnostic; will be on Ethereum, Solana, and potentially others.
  • Gold custody and compliance to be handled via top-tier jurisdictions and banks.
• Why Not Bitcoin-Backed?
  • Gold market ($34 trillion) can sustain enormous hedged positions, unlike bitcoin.
  • “You can’t hedge $200 billion in bitcoin right now without a ridiculous amount of counterparty risk…There’s no counterparty that’s going to take that risk.” (01:00, 13:13, Vinny Lingham)

Portfolio Context: Gold, Silver, Stocks, and Crypto (16:35, 17:35)

• Advocates for diversification: “You should have a diversified portfolio that helps you ride the ups and downs of the markets.”
• For precious metals, suggests a portfolio of ~85% gold, 10% silver, and minor shares of platinum/palladium.
• Compares this with crypto portfolio construction (50% bitcoin, the rest in alts, etc.), but ultimately recommends stocks for true “investing” versus “speculation” in crypto:
  • “Crypto is more like gambling. To me, gold is actually investing, because it’s hedging your portfolio against global conflicts and currency debasements.” (19:30, Vinny Lingham)

Bitcoin: Privacy and Quantum Threats (21:43, 23:36)

• Unenthusiastic about full-on privacy in bitcoin:
  • “Adding an anonymity layer to bitcoin is not healthy and kind of dangerous…all you’re going to have is governments banning it.” (22:22, Vinny Lingham)
• Agrees quantum threats are underappreciated; changes like Taproot may have increased risks.
• Closing critique: “I have not been a big fan of Jerome Powell... but the current administration’s attack on Powell isn’t a good thing either.” (24:22, Vinny Lingham)

Part 2: Eric Fine (VanEck) on Gold’s Macro Case and the Future of Money

Why Put a Number on Gold as Reserve Currency? (26:43)

• Methodology:
  • Frustration with “words” and essays—wanted a precise number: “What is the price of gold if the dollar loses its reserve status?”
• Fiscal Dominance & Central Bank Constraints:
  • When government debt is too high, central banks become constrained; higher inflation should follow, leading to depreciation—especially visible in gold.
  • Sanctioning of Russian central bank reserves (removal of $300B) made these constraints acute.

Calculating Gold’s ‘Implied Price’ (30:53)

• Uses global central bank reserves versus M0 (base money supply), weighted by FX turnover.

• Main numbers:

  • “If you come up with the gold equalizing price…for M0…you get $34,000 an ounce. For M2, you get $189,000 an ounce.” (34:21, Eric Fine)
  • Notes that derivative claims (M-infinity, $700 trillion) are even larger, but set aside as “too incomprehensible.”

• Notable quote:

  “Currencies can go to zero, right? So it’s often not the thing you think is going up, it’s the floor you’re standing on going down…Like I have two kids and when they're growing up, I would tell them whenever we got in an elevator, ‘hey, how do you know the building's not going down?’” (00:22, 38:45 Eric Fine)

Winners and Losers Among Central Banks (35:56)

• Strong positions:
  • Emerging markets (EM), especially post-1997 crisis (Asia, e.g., Thailand and Indonesia).
  • South Africa: 60% of base money covered by gold; high yields.
• Weak positions:
  • Developed economies (Japan, UK, Australia): increasingly leveraged, worsening since 2012.
• China stands out for maintaining a steady, conservative position.

Lessons from Past Currency Matches (40:07, 43:13)

• EMs learned the dangers of central bank over-leverage and took corrective action, while DM (developed markets) persistently increased leverage.
• Since last analysis in 2012, trends have intensified; China hasn’t become over-levered.

The Rise of “Regional Blocks” and Future Scenarios (44:15)

• Sees trend toward regional monetary blocs (Americas, Asia, etc. rather than full deglobalization).
• Reference to Poland’s convergence with Europe—“multi-trillion” convergence trade possible in the Americas as blocs form.
• China and CNY (yuan) identified as strong long-term contenders for reserve status; “our view is the dollar will not lose its status, it’ll share its status.” (Throughout 44:15-51:10)
• Gold’s ascendance is not yet a risk for the dollar itself—it’s more threatening to other developed currencies (UK, Japan, Eurozone).

Gold vs. Bitcoin in the Macro Context (49:32)

• Gold’s role is clear and supported by central banks; bitcoin is not in the same bracket yet.
• Calculation doesn’t even include bitcoin at the reserve level, but in theory “you could say 21M coins and get $250k or over a million” depending on how you divide M0 or M2.
• Geopolitics and the fragmentation of currency areas (“blocks”) will define flows into gold, bitcoin, or other alternatives.

Memorable Quotes & Insights

• On Systemic Risk and Currencies:

  • “It’s often not the thing you think is going up, it’s the floor you’re standing on going down.” (00:22, 38:45, Eric Fine)

• Perspective on Bitcoin’s Potential:

  • “The calculation we’re doing is simple. There’s zero here of BTC. Now you could say the 21M coins... It’s a reminder geopolitics are important and where it ends up is in blocks.” (49:32, Eric Fine)

• Final Thoughts:

  • “If I was in the business of generating things we love, I wouldn’t be in the business, I guess. We’re just saying what we see.” (51:16, Eric Fine)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Gold’s outperformance & global macro dynamics – 02:00 – 06:39
• Why Bitcoin lags behind – 04:24, 13:10
• Vinny Lingham’s personal asset allocation – 06:39
• Introducing Zash gold-backed stablecoin – 08:26 – 14:22
• Diversification, gold/silver allocations – 16:35 – 20:15
• Debate on bitcoin privacy & quantum threats – 21:43, 23:36
• Eric Fine: Methodology for gold price targets – 30:53 – 34:21
• Emerging markets vs. developed markets – winners & losers – 35:56 – 43:13
• Rise of regional currency blocks – 44:15 – 49:17
• Gold vs. bitcoin as reserve or defensive assets – 49:32 – 51:10

Conclusion

This episode delivers an anchored, level-headed look at the global shift from US Treasuries to gold as a monetary reserve, bitcoin’s relative underperformance and structural limits, and how new innovations like Zash aim to blend the old (gold) with the new (blockchain rewards). The macro view suggests gold’s rally is likely to persist amid global political and fiscal tension, while bitcoin’s transformative potential remains hampered by liquidity, volatility, and regulatory hurdles in the eyes of both veteran builders and institutional investors. Both guests urge broad diversification as the only prudent hedge in an unpredictable, multipolar financial world.