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- [00:00]
A
I want to just touch a little more on bitcoin and gold though, and sort of how they performed during the Iran war. I mean, gold I think just finished its worst quarter or it's about to finish its worst quarter in years. I mean, bitcoin was up I think for a decent amount in the beginning of the war. But that may have had more to do with bitcoin being just oversold at the beginning and gold being overbought and kind of a reversion to the mean. But, but prices are struggling and I think the World Gold Council just came out with a report pointing out how more and more central banks are repatriating their gold out of London and New York, which seems to suggest perhaps the need for a secure store of value. And if that's true, bitcoin is much more easily transferable than gold. I mean, I know they're not the same assets at this point in time, but like how do you make sense of their performances during these, during the crisis and kind of where we stand now?
- [00:57]
B
I don't think you can make sense of the price performance without talking about speculation in this case. Both of these assets are in my view cornerstone assets of the global financial system, extremely important assets and should be held in most types of diversified portfolios, physical gold and, and, and digital bitcoin. But when you're looking at the short term price behavior, especially in the last few months, you know, to me it is striking that you know, the, the degree of, of speculative or momentum type of flows, return chasing flows, how, how prominent that has been. You know, the gold megatrend really started in 2022. Something we've talked about in the past to Steve, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions applied to Russia's central bank that really triggered a new era of central bank, a gold accumulation and got prices to you know, maybe 4,000 or something like that, but then from 4,000 to, you know, to 5,500. I think maybe that was a lot of, you know, return chasing and speculative retail activity that got us to those very high levels. And, and my sense is what's happened recently is that's just coming out of the market a bit that, you know, the kind of speculative intensity has shifted away from precious metals, you know, maybe to some degree to some other, other things of course, like the, you know, the chip and semis space of the, of the market that's been incredibly hot in equities at the moment, perpetual futures and the kind of pre IPO trades. So I, I think some of it can only be explained explained by the, the coming and going of of speculative activity. You know, both gold and Bitcoin to me have very strong fundamental foundations, you know, and that has to do with this, you know, deficit and debt imbalance. That's not going to go anywhere for, for a long period of time. So I would encourage investors that have longer time horizons to look at these types of markets, look at these types of drawdowns. When retail speculative activity has been washed out, maybe it's the time to be looking at, allocating to, to both of these assets. I personally think that gold and bitcoin both look pretty good here and a lot of that speculative excess has come out at this point.
- [03:24]
A
Okay, all right, so we're just about of time, but I do want to just give you a chance to talk about any other assets charts that you're paying attention to. I know Uniswap's getting a lot of attention because of which bank was it Charter that basically put what is tantamount to a buy rating on it. What are you going to be looking for as we move into the second half of the year?
- [03:50]
B
Well, let me talk about kind of umbrella topic that covers that as well as a few other things, which is revenue, revenue and earnings for crypto protocols and the value that that can accrue to tokens. You know, that, that I think is very central to the investor focus at, at the moment. And you know, regulatory clarity has been a big piece of that, you know, a new regulatory environment that has allowed these protocol teams to change their structure, to create new structures and then to talk about what they're doing and the revenue produced by the protocol protocols in a new way. You know, that's been a kind of a breath of fresh air and certainly a big change. And I think Hyper Liquid specifically has been an important part of that story. You know, so many of our touch points, you know, may not be crypto native investors, but they're looking at the industry for compelling ideas. And hyperliquid is this very clear use case of blockchains for a piece of financial technology. It produces a lot of revenue, it drives that revenue back to token holders. And so very clear revenue story. So you mentioned Uniswap. We recently did a similar type of report using kind of classic discounted cash flow valuation analysis to put a price target on AAVE token. You know, Hyper Liquid has been at the center. I think in the context of clarity act, tokenized assets, stable coins, there's gonna be a huge focus on where are the revenue producing projects in crypto. How do you value those tokens? And is this the right time to buy the dip? You know, maybe, maybe a diversified basket of these defi assets is a good fit at this, at this point. So that's what we're working on our with our research and what we're communicating with many of our clients is, you know, the revenue story and the regulatory clarity story and what that means for specific assets. I think some of these defi names that we've talked about are great examples of things that are benefiting from both of those trends.
- [05:50]
C
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