Unchained Podcast: Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto
Episode 813 | Host: Laura Shin | Guest: Arthur Hayes (CIO, Maelstrom)
Date: April 8, 2025

Overview of the Episode

In this episode, Laura Shin interviews Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and current Maelstrom CIO, on the macro and crypto ripple effects of President Trump’s sweeping new import tariffs. The conversation explores why Hayes anticipates tariffs will create a “fiat liquidity bonanza” that benefits Bitcoin and crypto markets, the mechanics of US trade imbalances and fiscal policy, what to expect for Bitcoin and ETH prices, the pitfalls of national strategic crypto reserves, and trends in crypto infrastructure and investments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Tariffs: Macro and Market Impact

• Trump’s "Liberation Day" Tariffs: New baseline 10% tariffs on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries (e.g., 54% for China, 24% for Japan, 20% for EU, ~25% for Canada/Mexico).
  • Hayes unpacks Trump’s rationale: reversal of longstanding current account deficits and delivering on campaign promises to bring back manufacturing jobs ([04:55]).
• Winners and Losers: Hayes frames tariffs through a non-moral, pragmatic investor lens.
  • “Is it good or is it bad? For whom? It’s all relative.” — Arthur Hayes ([04:46])
  • Trump’s voter base (lower-income, non-degree workers) stands to benefit, while higher-earning, asset-owning professionals face challenges ([08:29]–[10:36]).
• The Hidden Financial Feedback Loop: Foreign trade surplus countries (e.g., China, Germany, Japan) “recycle” USD by buying US Treasuries and stocks, supporting American asset prices and low yields ([06:13]).
  • Tariff-driven trade shrinkage likely reduces foreign Treasury/stocks demand, with knock-on effects for financial markets.

2. Tariffs and the “Fiat Liquidity Bonanza” for Crypto

• Powell and Monetary Policy: Hayes believes the U.S. will print money to absorb lost foreign demand for Treasuries, despite official narratives about fighting inflation ([14:27]).
  • “Powell told you... [money] will be printed. He says tariffs are transitory.” — Arthur Hayes ([16:21])
• Crypto Implications: Hayes expects Bitcoin to eventually decouple from risk assets and move with gold as fiat liquidity surges globally ([16:39]–[16:48]).
  • “Bitcoin will decouple from these stock indices and ... reflate higher as the money supply globally goes higher.” — Arthur Hayes ([16:45])
• Recession Odds Are a Sideshow: To Hayes, recessions mainly serve as justification for more monetary expansion, which supports the Bitcoin bull case ([18:21]–[19:04]).

3. Can Tariffs Bring Back U.S. Manufacturing?

• Hayes is skeptical that manufacturing can return on an electorally meaningful timeline:
  • “It won’t be built in the next 12 months or even the next 24, 48 months... But he [Trump] is going to point to all these different companies who’ve [contractually] basically said they’re going to build something.” ([19:27]–[20:17])

4. Strategic Bitcoin Reserves: Risks & Politics

• Hayes is critical of governments proactively accumulating bitcoin reserves:
  • “Anytime a government holds something, they can sell it... When the politics change... we’re going to switch to fear: when are they going to dump these things?” ([21:14]–[21:44])
  • Politically, buying crypto is a hard sell when other society needs compete for funds.
• Alternative vision: U.S. could use Bitcoin to devalue dollar-denominated debt, integrating BTC (and/or gold) as a reserve or settlement asset ([24:00]–[24:46]).

5. The Hyperliquid/Jelly Incident: Centralization, Risk, and Exchange Wars

• Hayes weighs in on Hyperliquid’s rapid, centralized override decision after an attack on its oracle, noting centralization is rampant in most so-called “decentralized” projects ([25:46]–[27:19]).
• User preferences often trump decentralization ideology: “Decentralized, centralized. If the price is good, if it’s fast, if the fees are good, they’re going to trade there.” ([27:42])
• Binance and OKEx listing Jelly perps to exploit Hyperliquid’s troubles was seen as “hilarious cooperation” and a symptom of incumbents vs. upstarts ([31:02]–[32:59]).
• The upshot: battle-hardening for new exchanges, a moral hazard dynamic for liquidity providers, and user indifference to philosophical purity ([35:21]–[36:53]).

6. Presidential Pardon and Crypto Political Influence

• Hayes reflects on Trump’s pardon for his BitMEX legal issues, describing the process as a cold, formal petition with “luck of the draw” ([39:41]–[40:13]).
• He recounts pitching hands-off regulation at a Mar-a-Lago summit, arguing for an “Internet era”-style approach focused on innovation, not prescriptive rule-making ([41:45]–[43:44]).

7. Political Meme Coins and Trump World’s Crypto Embrace

• Hayes advocates for political meme coins as a tool for transparent, real-time campaign finance—and expects more of them globally ([45:07]–[46:39]).
• On high-profile presidential crypto ventures and stablecoins: “Great. I mean, they join the party... I’m all for it.” ([46:39]–[47:16])

8. Athena, Purpose-Built L1s, and the Future of DeFi Infrastructure

• Hayes discusses Athena’s strategy: a converge chain (L1) tailored for institutional users seeking “delta-neutral” yield, with KYC features and traditional compliance baked in ([47:49]–[50:00]).
• The future is fragmented: “If people believe app chain-based L1s are bad for Ethereum, that ship’s already sailed... It just depends on what you need.” ([50:09]–[52:09])

9. Ethereum vs. Solana: Investment Outlook

• ETH, now “the most hated L1,” offers the best risk/reward as the cycle turns, while meme coin-driven Solana tailwinds are fading ([54:26]–[56:41]).
• ETH could outperform as negative sentiment reverses: “Whenever you have a turn in the cycle, you want to own the most hated thing...” ([54:39])

10. Circle’s Pending IPO: A “Dogshit” Trade?

• Hayes is bearish on buying Circle shares, seeing Tether as much stronger in its global (non-US) use case, and Circle as a “bitch” to Coinbase distribution. “If you want to own the top dog, just buy Coinbase.” ([58:38]–[60:48])

11. Maelstrom’s Investment Strategy

• Maelstrom is highly price-sensitive, avoids hype, and is mostly focused on liquid opportunities in beaten-down “altcoin decimation” rather than chasing expensive early-stage deals ([61:13]–[63:42]).

12. Arthur’s Price Projections

• Short term: Bitcoin will hit $110,000 before $76,500 ([17:13]), and “if we hit 110k, then it’s Yahtzee time and we ain’t looking back until 250k” ([64:28], [65:27]).
• ETH to $5k before SOL to $300: “From a risk reward perspective, ETH is better because it’s as hated.” ([64:29]–[65:19])
• Macro driver: A surge in money-printing by US, China, Japan, and EU by end of 2025 will propel bitcoin towards $250,000 ([65:35]–[66:27]).

Notable Quotes & Moments

Arthur Hayes:

• “Powell told you it’s going to be printed at the last press conference… I know bitcoin has done poorly, but that’s just investors not really appreciating that this is a fiat liquidity bonanza that’s about to happen.” ([00:49], [16:21])
• “I don’t like buying bitches, so why would I buy Circle’s IPO?” ([60:40])
• “Whenever you have a turn in the cycle, you want to own the most hated thing because that’s going to perform the best.” ([54:39])
• “Decentralized, centralized. If the price is good, if it’s fast, if the fees are good, they’re going to trade there.” ([27:42])
• “I have no fucking idea. Does [a recession] matter?” ([19:08])
• “If I’m going to, on a risk reward basis in a new cycle trend, I want to own the most hated thing and not the most loved thing of the previous cycle.” ([64:37])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [04:35] – Hayes on Trump’s tariff motives and trade imbalances
• [11:36] – Tariff impact on Fed policy, Powell, and money printing
• [16:53] – Bitcoin price targets and decoupling from equities
• [18:00] – Probability and relevance of a US recession
• [21:14] – Critique of strategic bitcoin reserves
• [24:00] – Proposal to use BTC to devalue US Treasuries
• [25:46] – Hyperliquid/Jelly incident analysis and centralization themes
• [31:02] – Binance/OKEX moves and CEX/DEX rivalry
• [39:41] – Hayes on receiving a presidential pardon
• [41:45] – Crypto lobbying and regulatory views at Mar-a-Lago
• [47:49] – Athena’s new L1, convergence chains, and Ethereum’s future
• [54:26] – ETH vs. SOL: investing logic this cycle
• [58:38] – Circle IPO critique and stablecoin landscape
• [61:13] – Maelstrom’s investment philosophy
• [64:28] – Final price forecast: BTC, ETH, SOL

Conclusion

Hayes delivers a macro-crypto masterclass, citying global liquidity, political incentives, and structural market flows as fundamental drivers for the next leg up in Bitcoin and Ethereum—even as he blasts government crypto hoarding, debunks decentralization myths, and dismisses Circle’s IPO. The discussion is wide-ranging and candid, making this essential listening for those seeking to understand how monetary policy, geopolitics, and big personalities shape the future of digital assets.