Unchained Podcast Episode 817 Summary
Title: Bitcoin to $200K+ This Year? These 2 Crypto Investors Think So
Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Matt Hogan (CIO, Bitwise), Matthew Sheffield (Senior Trader, FalconX)
Release Date: April 15, 2025
Main Theme:
An in-depth discussion on how recent wild swings in US tariffs and monetary policy are shaking markets, with special attention to ramifications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem. The guests give their bullish takes for Bitcoin, debate the prospects for altcoin seasons, analyze investor sentiment, and explain why regulatory and market structure shifts could mean the environment for crypto is fundamentally changing.
Episode Overview
This episode tackles the dramatic impact of the “tariff rollercoaster” under the Trump administration—highlighted by unpredictable reversals, exemptions, and escalating geopolitical uncertainty—on crypto asset prices, investor psychology, and structural flows into and within digital assets. Laura Shin invites Matt Hogan and Matthew Sheffield, two seasoned industry insiders, to break down why they predict Bitcoin could hit $200K or more this year, whether new macro conditions will fundamentally benefit crypto, and what’s really changed in market structure and investor behavior.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The Tariff Rollercoaster: Macro Uncertainty Meets Crypto
- The past week saw extreme policy fluctuation: tariffs went live, were partially reversed, exempted, then perhaps reversed again—all in a few days. (03:03)
- Matt Hogan: Despite the chaos, “The return of Bitcoin over the past month, at least through Sunday, was precisely zero. All of this... amounted to nothing.” (04:37)
- The only constant right now is volatility—short-term traders are racing to profit, while long-term holders remain unfazed.
2. Investor Positioning: Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Bullishness
- Matthew Sheffield: There's an unprecedented gulf between institutional clients’ short-term anxiety and their long-term bullishness. (06:09)
- Many investors are sidelining capital, waiting for clarity, or focusing on options for hedging.
- There is scant appetite for high-risk altcoins during the uncertainty.
3. Fundamental vs. Speculative Markets: The End of “Spray and Pray”?
- Both guests believe crypto is entering a more mature, fundamentally-driven cycle. (08:30)
- Matt Hogan: “We’re moving into a fundamental market... more differentiation between this project and this project than we perhaps had in the past.”
- Divergence between protocols like Solana and Ethereum in 2024 is evidence fundamentals are now key.
4. The ETF Effect & Institutional Adoption
- Matthew Sheffield: The rise of ETFs changes wealth flows; ETF money is sticky, less prone to risky rotations into obscure altcoins. Index-like investment will lead to further concentration and mimic traditional finance. (14:27)
5. Macro Signals: Treasuries, the Dollar, and Bitcoin as Safe Haven
- The 10-year Treasury market has become “completely wild,” which paradoxically creates both short-term risk and long-term opportunity for Bitcoin. (17:00)
- Matt Hogan: “We’re sort of moving to a new monetary order... That’s opening up a window for Bitcoin to get a major seat at the table.”
- Matthew Sheffield: The massive foreign demand at Treasury auctions and political signaling suggests behind-the-scenes bargaining (e.g., tariffs paused after foreign investors step in), with lasting relevance for the crypto thesis. (18:36)
6. Risk Pre-Priced: The Options Market & the Elusive Crash
- Heavy options hedging ahead of tariff deadlines “pre-positioned” the market so well that, unless a new catastrophe emerges, a crash is unlikely and there’s a “substantial bottom” for Bitcoin. (21:28)
7. Bull Market Drivers: Demand/Supply Imbalance and Price Projections
- Bitcoin’s demand from ETFs, corporations, and governments far outpaces new supply.
- Matt Hogan: “There is much more structural demand for Bitcoin than there is new supply... This fundamental demand-supply mismatch will force Bitcoin up and up and up...” (32:11)
- He projects $200K by year-end, possibly higher in a strong macro environment.
8. Who Are the New Bitcoin Buyers?
- Three key buyer types: governments (possibly accumulating quietly), corporations (accounting changes favor more on-balance-sheet BTC), and institutional investors catching up. (34:09)
- Matthew Sheffield: Institutions are coming slowly; sovereign nations may be accumulating “in silence.” (36:15)
9. Altcoins: Fundamental Shake-Out, Timing, and Product-Market Fit
- Broad altcoin booms ("alt-seasons") may be less likely without a huge surge in liquidity and wealth effect. ETF and market structure changes mean money is less nimble.
- Quality projects with fundamental traction (like Hyperliquid and popular DeFi protocols) will win out.
- Matt Hogan: “I think there's a DeFi Summer 2.0 coming... proven technology, regulatory and technological unlocking at the same time....” (43:24)
10. Regulatory Reset: A Massive Underappreciated Bullish Thrust
- Dramatic reduction in US regulatory hostility toward crypto is a massive de-risking event.
- Matt Hogan: “We don’t have any previous analogs... for that degree of regulatory shift… the market is probably underpricing what it means...” (55:25)
- Matthew Sheffield: Legal costs have dropped, freeing up capital for growth. “You’re long protocols, and short legal firms at the moment.” (56:24)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Short-Term vs. Long-Term Uncertainty:
“The only thing you can count on in crypto right now is volatility.... Long term, I think we're in a very bullish environment for crypto and on a day to day basis it's just exhausting to do so much work just to churn water and end up back where we started.”
— Matt Hogan (04:37) -
On Supply/Demand Imbalance:
“Bitcoin new supply of bitcoins: 165,000. Last year ETFs bought half a million. ... There is much more sort of structural demand for Bitcoin than there is new supply.”
— Matt Hogan (32:11) -
On Institutional Adoption Pace:
“We are very early in the adoption curve for institutions, sovereigns and specifically the pension money... Once those frictions are removed... then you can truly open the floodgates.”
— Matthew Sheffield (36:15) -
On the Regulatory Shift:
“We don’t have any previous analogs to imagine what it’s like to go in a period of six months from every major crypto company being sued to all of those being removed and crypto being a priority for the US government to support and grow... the market is probably underpricing what it means from a risk reduction perspective.”
— Matt Hogan (55:25) -
On DeFi’s Future:
“It's just a really powerful trio of forces... I think there's a DeFi Summer 2.0 coming as those three forces collide that's really going to reset what are the most useful apps that we built in crypto.”
— Matt Hogan (43:24) -
On Shifting Bull Market Definitions:
“When people and mostly retail say we are no longer in a bull market, it means that they are not making 5 10x on altcoins quite yet... It's very hard for me to believe that we're not in a bull market when... they spend like a third to quarter of their time talking about an asset class whose largest coin isn't larger than the largest equity... ”
— Matthew Sheffield (51:17)
Important Timestamps
- 02:47: Intro of episode topic and guests (Laura Shin)
- 03:03–07:18: Macro chaos, short-term/long-term investor split
- 08:30–11:27: Shift to fundamental-driven markets, project differentiation
- 11:52–14:27: ETFs and allocation shifts, Solana v ETH, concentration in majors
- 17:00–20:10: Treasury volatility, macro safe-haven thesis, monetary order reset
- 21:28–23:21: Options market projecting the bottom
- 32:11: Matt Hogan’s $200K price thesis, supply/demand mathematics
- 34:09–36:15: Buyers: governments, corporations, institutions; stablecoin demand
- 39:57–44:19: Altcoin prospects, DeFi bullishness, product-market fit and entertainment value
- 43:24–44:19: DeFi’s stress test, technology, and potential “Summer 2.0”
- 45:28–47:23: Bitcoin ETF outflows post-Liberation Day: why they’re muted, strength of ETF money
- 49:32–51:14: Institutional/tradfi perspectives versus crypto-native sentiment
- 55:25–56:50: Regulatory de-risking as overlooked momentum for crypto
Conclusion & Overall Tone
The conversation is expertly grounded—bullish without hyperbole, analytical without dry detachment. Both Matt Hogan and Matthew Sheffield are confident but thoughtful; they believe Bitcoin and parts of crypto are at an inflection point due to regulatory, structural, and macro drivers—and that the post-ETF era, changing market structure, and the regulatory détente mean previous market patterns may no longer apply.
The “$200K Bitcoin year” headline is supported by real market mechanics, not empty hype: supply/demand imbalances, persistent institutional flows, and a regulatory wind at crypto’s back. Yet the guests are honest about the challenges—uncertain short-term trading, risk-off behavior until macro chaos abates, and more selective altcoin investing.
For more:
- Matt Hogan — Bitwise CIO Memo, @HOUgan on X
- Matthew Sheffield — @SheffieldReport on X
Note: Ads, intro/outro, and sponsor messages omitted. See transcript highlights above for referenced quotes in context.