Unchained: Bits + Bips - Ep. 950

Bitcoin’s Outlook, ETH's Next Major Support and Why Zcash’s Run Isn’t Over
Date: November 15, 2025
Host: Steve Ehrlich (Executive Editor, Unchained; standing in for Laura Shin)
Guest: Katie Stockton (Founder & Managing Partner, Fairlead Strategies)

Episode Overview

This inaugural episode of the Unchained on Air series, “Bits + Bips: The Interview,” features a detailed technical analysis of current crypto market conditions with charting expert Katie Stockton. The discussion covers the present state and outlook of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), major “digital asset trusts” and mining stocks, as well as fresh perspectives on XRP and privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC)—all through the lens of technical indicators, cycles, and price trends.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Approach to Charting & Technical Analysis

• Katie Stockton emphasizes that, while technical analysis is the formal term, she prefers to describe herself as a "chartist," focusing on interpreting price action, momentum, and support/resistance on charts.
• Charting is particularly helpful in volatile environments like crypto, managing risk, identifying trends, and spotting technical (vs. fundamental) catalysts. She notes, “Volatility is really the only guarantee, I think” (04:59).
• The process at Fairlead Strategies relies on three categories of indicators:
  • Trend-following/momentum (e.g., MACD)
  • Overbought/oversold metrics (e.g., stochastic oscillator)
  • Relative strength (e.g., ratios and rotation graphs)
  • These are considered across multiple time frames: short (daily), intermediate (weekly), long (monthly).

“Volatility is really the only guarantee, I think.”
—Katie Stockton [04:59]

2. How Much History Is Needed?

• Effective technical analysis requires sufficient historical trading data—generally at least six months to a year for a new asset. For major cryptos like BTC and ETH, a decade’s worth of reliable data allows for analysis of longer-term cycles:

“The data really became quite good, I would say, in 2014 for Bitcoin on the charts.” [08:45]

• Small cap tokens and microcap assets often lack reliable trends due to liquidity issues and ‘gappy’ charts.

3. Technical Indicators: Combining Tools

• Stockton's methodology is to look for alignment (“confluence”) between indicators and across time frames.
• Example: A long-term uptrend aligns with a search for intermediate and short-term ‘buy’ signals, using tools such as:
  • MACD for trend maturity/shift
  • Stochastic oscillator for overbought/oversold conditions
  • Demark sequential for exhaustion signals

4. Bitcoin: Current State & Key Levels

• The long-term uptrend in BTC is intact, supported by rising 12-month moving averages, but minor overbought/exhaustion signals are noted on the monthly chart.
• The “cloud model” (a support/resistance region on weekly charts) suggests upside into Q2 2026, but high-conviction timing signals are absent for now.
• The stochastic oscillator, when it turns up near or below the 20% level, often marks a strong entry. Such a buy signal is being watched for and "could take weeks" to appear (15:24).
• Market structure since late 2022 is distinct, characterized by "stair-step" upmoves followed by prolonged consolidations.

“The character of the market in Bitcoin at least has changed... [Now] the bulk of these up moves occur very, very quickly, even at times in just a one week period, and then it goes into a prolonged consolidation.”
—Katie Stockton [17:08]

• Psychological level: $100,000 is crucial; breaking convincingly above it would be important for sentiment and trend confirmation.

5. Bitcoin-Adjacent Equities: Strategy (MSTR) & Iris (Mining Stock)

• Both BTC and MSTR have been trending lower, but MSTR has broken key support, diverging from Bitcoin itself.
• Next strong support for MSTR is “about 183 and 200” [21:14], but no new buy signals yet.
• Demark indicators hint that a buy signal could appear in “about seven weeks,” possibly making Q1 2026 attractive for re-entry.
• The divergence between miner stocks and DATs (Digital Asset Trusts) may reflect underlying information about sector risk and sentiment.

6. Ethereum: Long-Term Bullish, But Near-Term Volatility

• ETH broke out of a long-term triangle pattern (bullish), but key support is now at “about 2750” [23:30].
• The next compelling buy point would be an overbought/oversold reversal signal. The stochastic is nearing oversold territory but hasn’t turned up yet.
• ETH:BTC ratio is a valuable gauge of crypto risk appetite; current phase shows ETH underperforming Bitcoin, reflecting risk-off sentiment.

“The only guarantee here is volatility.”
—Katie Stockton [23:41]

7. ETH-Related Stocks: BitMine (Proxy for ETH DATs)

• Charts for BitMine have moved from “gappy, range-bound” to showing a “major long-term breakout.”
• Despite that, short-term momentum has shifted down; looking for further oversold signals before considering re-entry.

8. XRP: ETF Debut and Technical Outlook

• At time of recording, the first spot XRP ETF is launching.
• XRP remains range-bound but continues to hold the cloud model support. “It would be nice to see some kind of catalyst... maybe the ETF will actually exacerbate the short term improvement in momentum” [28:27].
• Watching for a move above the converged 50-day and 200-day moving averages (~$0.263), which would be a constructive technical break.

9. Zcash (ZEC): Privacy Coins on the Move

• Zcash exhibited a “massive breakout” above 2021 and even 2018 highs. The run is described as “pretty intriguing” and “long-term bullish” [30:14].
• Despite looking “overextended,” no sell signals (stochastic/demark) have materialized yet; these could materialize “as soon as a couple weeks out,” but for now, she would give the uptrend a “chance to see some follow through.”
• Attention to risk management is essential due to current price’s distance from key support levels.

“Surprisingly though, we’re not seeing a sell signal yet... I would say probably give it a chance to see some follow through because of the long-term breakout.”
—Katie Stockton [30:32]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Charting vs. Technical Analysis:

  “We are chartists at heart and we’re following price trends primarily... Charting is one of the best ways to understand the crypto market and to benefit from it because there is so much volatility.”
  —Katie Stockton [04:09]

• On Market Shifts in Bitcoin:

  “Since I’d say late 22 to 23, the character of the market in bitcoin at least has changed and we have to be adaptable with that in mind.”
  —Katie Stockton [16:53]

• On Waiting for Clear Signals:

  “That’s the real value because I think we can all look at a chart and see a trend… but it’s when those trends are maturing that’s harder to identify.”
  —Katie Stockton [11:21]

• On Zcash:

  “With any kind of steep up move... there needs to be some attention to risk management and that means different things for different people—maybe just the stop loss or watching the curvature of a moving average.”
  —Katie Stockton [31:28]

Segment Timestamps

• [01:49] How market structure has shifted (impact of ETFs, market adaptation)
• [03:19] Katie Stockton introduction and approach to charting
• [04:08–07:34] Liquidity, history, and technical analysis limitations for small-caps
• [09:20] Most relied upon indicators for crypto
• [13:36] Bitcoin charts, long-term uptrend, supports, near-term caution
• [19:03] Bitcoin-adjacent equities (MSTR, IRIS) diverging from BTC
• [22:12] Ethereum—breakout, current support and comparison to BTC
• [25:00] ETH DAT proxies and market sentiment
• [27:32] XRP’s technical outlook as first spot ETF begins trading
• [29:42] Zcash’s long-term breakout, risk management, outlook

Summary & Takeaways

The episode delivers an expert-level, no-nonsense technical dissection of major crypto trends as we approach the close of 2025. Katie Stockton’s disciplined, multi-indicator methodology underscores the importance of patience, risk management, and adaptability—especially amid the rapid regime changes that characterize current crypto markets.

Listeners and investors are cautioned not to chase hype but to watch for high-conviction signals highlighted by robust technical confluence, especially as volatility is the only constant in crypto’s evolution.