Unchained Podcast – Bits + Bips: Are Crypto Markets Bottoming, or Is There More Pain Ahead?

Date: February 26, 2026
Host: Austin Campbell
Co-hosts: Rahm Al Awalia, Chris Perkins
Guest: Omid Malakan

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the volatile state of the crypto markets, asking: Is this the bottom, or is there more pain ahead? The panel of industry veterans and thinkers—Austin Campbell (Zero Knowledge Group), Rahm Al Awalia (Lumina), Chris Perkins (CoinFund), and guest Omid Malakan (Columbia Business School)—explore the macro, market structure, and geopolitical forces currently roiling crypto and TradFi alike. The conversation ranges from death spirals in certain crypto products and the myth of institutional adoption, to the destabilizing effects of AI and tariffs, and culminates in a spirited debate about the future of banking, stablecoins, and the core need for decentralized digital money.

Market Volatility and the State of "DATs"

(Discussion begins at 02:06)

• Market Recap:
  Bitcoin dropped below $64k amid US trade policy uncertainty. $615M in crypto liquidations in 24 hours. US stock market weakness discussed as related context.

• DATs (Digital Asset Trusts) in a Death Spiral:

  • Rahm repeatedly stresses that DATs are in a “death spiral,” a view he’s held for months (02:49, 04:51), citing crowded thematic trades and liquidity fragmentation.

    "Dats, I think I said two months ago, dats are in a death spiral. They're still in a death spiral. They're still in a death spiral. No view change." — Rahm Al Awalia (02:49)

  • Crowded trades: Each major asset/theme (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Quantum) supposedly “had a Kol behind it” (influencer or crowd leader), but that favor is unwinding, causing rapid re-pricing.

• Gemini as Bellwether:

  • Austin notes Gemini’s weak financial performance as representative of failed crypto models still lingering in public markets (05:51).

• Structural Issues with DATs:

  • Omid offers “mea culpa” for previously advocating some structure, realizing that:
    • "Alpha" is assumed but rarely exists
    • Hedge-fund-like strategies don't belong in public equity wrappers
    • Most outrage: foundations selling "locked" tokens to DATs, signaling locked tokens aren't truly locked and creating exit liquidity problems (07:43–11:23).

    "The thing with the DATs... is when they started buying locked tokens from foundations and labs and whatnot, which proved a couple of things. One, clearly those tokens were not locked. And two, the signal that sent to the market... is that none of those tokens are actually locked." — Omid Malakan (10:40)

• Market Bottoming?

  • Rahm: “The bottom happens and will present itself in an obvious way—when value guys see opportunity. We could have a local bottom now, but not 'the' ultimate bottom.” (05:09)

Institutional Adoption: Myth vs. Reality

(16:00–17:39)

• Institutional Flows Examined:

  • Rahm doubts narrative of institutional adoption; says most ETF flows have lost money, big actors aren’t doubling down, and Millennium-type players are doing basis/futures trades—not net exposure (14:57).

    "I don't really see skilled actors. I don't see big money buying... The institutions buying bitcoin and crypto is a myth. They didn't show up. Those that did, they got burned. They're not going to add to that." — Rahm Al Awalia (14:57)

• Retail & Narratives Drive Markets:

  • Chris Perkins disagrees, seeing institutions engaged with the tech (integration, use-cases—even as risk assets remain too volatile for true net long positions), and calls the current dour sentiment a buying signal (13:53).

Narratives, Communication & The Roadblocks to Broader Adoption

(17:55–19:36)

• “Crypto is its own worst enemy”:

  • Austin: Crypto’s biggest enemy is “crypto itself”—the prevalence of grifty actors and incoherent, cultish explanations deter mainstream engagement.

• Where is the Next Leg of Buyers?

  • Austin is bearish in the short term: “I think crypto is in the process of... not just shooting itself in the foot, but, like, stubbornly reloading and continuing to fire.”

• Chris: Narrative and Macro Factors:

  • Bitcoin follows gold; next leg “narrative-driven.” Chris highlights “agentic activity” and “idiosyncratic innovation” as future sources of upside if macro uncertainty lifts (19:36).

AI & The Misplaced Hype Cycle

(24:32–31:59)

• AI’s Transformative Potential vs. Reality:

  • Omid and Austin jointly slam AI hype—most technologists don’t understand how deeply embedded legacy processes (“agglomerated Rube Goldberg machines”) in large institutions impede real change. Biggest threat isn’t tech readiness, but lack of social/legal readiness for rapid automation.

    "Anybody who thinks that AI is going to be that transformative has never worked in a large bureaucratic organization... There needs to be massive social, cultural, legal changes." — Omid Malakan (25:26)

• AI/Metaverse Parallels:

  • Omid likens AI “agentic commerce” hype to Metaverse in 2021—imagining rapid transformation, skipping over societal constraints (27:44).
  • Chris: "Are we in a period of exuberance? Yes. But the foundations are getting built."

• AI and Value Accrual:

  • Austin: Real value may accrue to distribution, not necessarily to the tech/model companies; Apple’s strategy of waiting to partner exemplifies this.

Geopolitics, Tariffs, and Real-World Relevance

(33:21–46:45)

• Tariffs Chaos:

  • Supreme Court ruling disrupted Trump-era tariffs, placing further uncertainty in global markets; administration scrambling to re-anchor authority using Section 301.
  • Tariffs add to already volatile macro and distract from other concerns (33:21).

• Iran: Regime Instability and Crypto’s Value

  • Omid, on Iran, draws a direct line between collapsing legitimacy, banking system fragility, and the urgent real-world crypto use case (35:39–38:11):

    “The regime falls, the banking system surely falls... this ultimately shows why the world needs an independent digital financial system that's not affiliated with any government.” — Omid Malakan (38:11)

  • Chris: in past conflicts, crypto (stablecoins) would have solved real pain points for average people (39:00).

• Limitations to Adoption:

  • Despite cultural awareness, real-world adoption in Iran is bounded by difficulty importing stablecoins into the country under capital controls—same Catch-22 for many global economies (39:37–40:55).
  • Austin: “Dollarization” via stablecoins is a slow but growing threat to capital-controlled regimes (41:40).

• Global Need for Permissionless Money:

  • Omid: Around a third of humanity suffers under capital controls. Such controls serve as “systems for organized theft,” so enabling dollarization through stablecoins benefits common people, hurts corrupt regimes (42:44).

The Importance of Regulatory Clarity: Stablecoins and Bank Capital

(47:18–57:23)

• SEC Guidance:

  • SEC now applies 2% capital haircut to stablecoin holdings—previously 100%—essentially equating them to money market funds.
  • Chris & Rahm: Applaud guidance; call out need for Basel III reform for true banking system integration and liquidity growth (48:36–50:04).

• Basel III and “Perverse Incentives”:

  • Austin details how post-2008 risk weights favor government debt over credit, warping incentives, crowding out lending (54:32–56:24).
  • Rahm: "The federal government has created an incentive for banks to buy debt issued by the federal government... and created the seeds of the next crisis." (56:24)

• Banking System: Maturity Mismatch Is Endemic:

  • Austin & Omid explore inherent problems in a highly leveraged, maturity-mismatched banking sector. Discuss the pros and cons of solutions ranging from tighter regulation to Glass-Steagall style separation.

Tokenized Bank Deposits vs. Stablecoins – The Battle to Redefine Money

(58:40–66:59)

• Tokenized Deposits:

  • Omid argues they’re vaporware; tokenized deposits can’t work at scale due to FDIC insurance constraints, price discovery risk (“a tweet about trading below par could spark a bank run”), and lack of interest payments compared to stablecoins (58:49–61:11).

    "Tokenized bank deposits are not a thing... Just wire people bank accounts like you're supposed to." — Omid Malakan (58:49–59:24)

• Yield-Bearing Stablecoin Debate:

  • Austin and Omid debate real value of tokenized deposits vs. stablecoins. Austin thinks both will coexist, with yields balancing out over time; Omid says truly yield-bearing stablecoins “would radically change the nature of the financial system. We don't use banks today because we like banks... We use banks today for one reason and one reason only. We have to.” (65:51)

    “If you could get a stable coin, it's just better... Once there is an alternative... the world is always going to need financial intermediaries... it's just going to have to be radically different than the banks today.” — Omid Malakan (65:51)

• The Future:

  • Final consensus: Paradigm shifts are coming—traditional rails and new innovations will collide, likely creating a more diverse monetary and financial ecosystem.

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• Rahm on institutional inertia:

  “It's like sex in high school. Everyone talks about. No one does it. At least not in my high school.” (17:40)

• Chris Perkins’ closing optimism:

  "Despite all the grifters and issues we fight through day after day... this is the crypto thesis: when trusted institutions break down you need to be able to pay people, survive, and live." (42:14)

• On the cycle:

  "The highs are high, the lows are low. We're at a low. I think we're going to move past it at some point... I think we're getting there." — Chris Perkins (13:53)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• DATs Death Spiral & Crowded Trades: 02:06–05:51
• Gemini’s Problems as Bellwether: 05:51–07:41
• Omid on “Locked” Tokens & DATs: 07:43–11:23
• Institutional Flows & Myth of Adoption: 14:57–17:39
• Crypto’s Communication Problem: 17:55–19:36
• Narratives, AI, and Hype Dissection: 24:32–31:59
• Tariffs & Geopolitical Review: 33:21–46:45
• Iran, Real-World Use Cases for Crypto: 35:39–42:44
• Stablecoins Regulation Discussion: 47:18–52:21
• Basel III, Bank Incentives: 54:32–57:23
• Tokenized Deposit/Stablecoin Debate: 58:40–66:59

Concluding Thoughts

This episode threads tough market realities, the myth of institutional “smart money,” and the promise and peril of AI and new financial rails back to crypto’s core value proposition: permissionless, apolitical digital money and infrastructure. The panel’s blend of skepticism and hope offers a frank, nuanced view for listeners navigating today’s choppy markets, and issues a challenge: understand the incentives, beware the hype cycles, but don’t lose sight of crypto’s foundational purpose in an increasingly unstable world.