Unchained Podcast - Bits + Bips: Bitcoin Hits $75K as It Starts Catching Up to Gold

Host: Austin Campbell (Zero Knowledge Group)
Co-hosts: Rahm Aliwalia (Lumina), Chris Perkins (CoinFund)
Date: March 18, 2026

Episode Overview

This fast-paced, in-depth discussion explores how macroeconomic currents, geopolitical upheaval, and technological innovation continue to shape the crypto markets—with a major highlight on Bitcoin reaching $75K and the narrative of BTC “catching up” to gold. The episode also dives into the explosive growth (and challenges) of prediction markets, the far-reaching impacts of the Iran conflict on oil and global markets, and a pointed debate about Ethereum’s future as it relates to real world asset (RWA) tokenization and chain-level decentralization.

Conference Recap & Industry Pulse

[02:12] Chris Perkins: Attended the FIA Boca, a major derivatives industry conference notable for growing crypto participation.

• Historically, crypto at FIA has been turbulent—“There was a famous brawl literally between the SBF and Terry Duffy a few years back... crypto people pulled back. But it’s where every exchange in the world shows up, intermediaries show up, regulators show up.”
• Prediction markets are a hot topic: Kalshi and Polymarket seen as breakout participants; perpetuals and 24/7 markets dominate the buzz.
• Regulatory pressure is mounting, especially for prediction markets—“they’re running out of friends in D.C.,” with bipartisan opposition.
• Behind-the-scenes dealmaking is heating up, especially as traditional exchanges like Kraken and ICE prepare to enter the crypto vertical.

Regulatory Crossroads: Prediction Markets

[04:59] Austin Campbell: To flourish, U.S. prediction markets must come under CFTC jurisdiction. A 50-state, patchwork regulatory environment “would brick a lot of these things because nuance between all of those will be catastrophic.”

[06:06] Chris Perkins:

• Insider trading is illegal—full stop. While hard to prosecute, “to the extent you blatantly use inside information & manipulate markets, you’re on the other side of the law.”
• “Sometimes we ignore common standards of law... Insider trading? Illegal. Manipulate markets? Illegal.”
• Highlight: “To the extent something’s on chain, it’s probably easier to prosecute.” [06:37]

[07:25] Rahm Aliwalia:

• “It’s illegal, but it’s happening. … People are front-running Congress. So yeah, people are saying, ‘hey, if they can do it, why can’t I?’”

[07:51] Chris Perkins:

• “The battleground is really gaming. … Kalshi is pretty concentrated on the gaming side. That’s going to be the battle: what products are allowed, which ones are not.”

[08:08] Austin Campbell: Court cases concerning state vs. federal jurisdiction are splitting, accelerating the likelihood of a Supreme Court showdown.

Prediction Markets’ Bubble?

[10:32] Rahm Aliwalia: Despite bullishness on prediction market adoption, he's bearish on enterprise value—legacy operators & old-school exchanges (like Nasdaq) are entering, tamping down growth.

• “Private venture capital is a bubble … prediction markets are in a bubble too. … You should try to sell the stock if you can.” [11:16]

[11:34] Chris Perkins: Traditional gaming operators “are not just going to let that fight pass them by. This has been their turf.”

Iran Conflict: Geopolitics, Oil, and Market Fallout

Situation Summary

[11:50] Austin Campbell: Updates on the Iran conflict:

• Week three of active hostilities; Israel expanding into southern Lebanon, Persian Gulf shipping disruption, UAE targeted, oil prices spiking.
• Trump applying pressure for NATO involvement.

Analysis

[13:34] Chris Perkins:

• Tactical: “US Military has been performing exceptionally well, taking out target after target… dominance.”
• Strategic: Real concern is the longevity of public support. “Trump’s got to find a way to keep that oil in check. … Crypto has stayed very, very strong—call desks report rising ‘short gold, long bitcoin’ trades.” [15:08]
  • “Real politic trust is breaking down. [That’s when]... real assets, commodities, are going to be in focus. That brings you to things like bitcoin, ETH, and the rest of the crypto environment.” [15:41]

[16:30] Rahm Aliwalia:

• Trump’s objectives: “If you want to understand how long this conflict takes, listen to what Trump says. … My read … is that Trump won’t stop until there is some control on the uranium.”
• Control of oil is “the bigger backdrop” to counter China strategically—“The two ways to compete with China are US dollar hegemony, [and] petrodollars.” [19:32]

[20:59] Chris Perkins: Points out Russia’s short-term benefit as the world’s attention is shifted, but believes the focus will return to Russia once the Iran crisis stabilizes.

[22:25] Austin Campbell: Disagrees: “I don’t think Russia is a big winner here... Russia’s options have already collapsed to the internal situation in Iran.”

[24:05] Austin Campbell: Cites historical precedent: “There’s plenty of historical models that show things are way more chaotic than you think. … If you look at the French Revolution… [the outcome could be someone we can’t anticipate now].”

Macro Implications

[25:13] Rahm Aliwalia:

• “The longer oil stays at these elevated levels, the more risk there is for an inflationary regime, which is terrible for asset prices.”
• “They really need to get the oil moving expeditiously… If they don’t, I think after options expiration this Friday, you’ll have more downside volatility.” [26:44]

[27:21] Austin Campbell: “Is that really hitting the American consumer, or just California? … California has been shooting itself in the foot on energy for decades now.” (Quote of the Episode - [27:40])

[27:54] Rahm Aliwalia: Market sentiment is risk-off and fragile: “This is not like, oh hey, let’s go up and to the right. This is not that kind of environment.”

[29:01] Austin Campbell & [29:36] Rahm Aliwalia: Forced deleveraging is likely driving much of the market action, with only “hyperscalers” (like Meta, Amazon) “releveraging” via massive tech infrastructure investment.

[30:51] Rahm Aliwalia:

• “Industrials are a bubble…. We’re on the right shoulder of the bubble.”
• Advocates reducing risk exposure and waiting for capitulation.

Crypto Market Discussion: BTC, ETH, and the “Digital Gold” Thesis

[32:01] Chris Perkins:

• “We were bullish last Monday.”
• BTC at $74K
• “We’re hitting some resistance—where are you on bitcoin right now?”

[32:24] Rahm Aliwalia:

• Bitcoin’s run-up is fueled by MicroStrategy and STRC marketing.
• “When that marketing process starts to slow, then I believe the bid for bitcoin will slow. So I’d take chips off the table now.”

[32:55] Chris Perkins:

• ETH is “materially outperforming” amid a rotation: “The BTC:gold ratio is coming back... the catch-up trade is now on.”
• “And then ETH pops up and is like, ‘Hey, remember me?’ Outperforming at all.” [33:27]

[34:03] Chris Perkins:

• “A lot of sovereigns bought gold... now that things are settling, bitcoin’s starting to get a bid, the BTC:gold ratio is coming back. Maybe the narrative never broke down in the first place.”

[35:19] Austin Campbell:

• For many outside the U.S., BTC and Tether represent the only way to move money outside vulnerable fiat regimes—this is a key driver with global shocks.

[36:14] Rahm Aliwalia:

• “If you have a flight to safety towards US assets, that doesn’t help digital assets. It’ll turn on facts on the ground—Iran, Iran, that’s what the whole thing turns on.”

Ethereum Foundation Mission & RWA Debate

[39:37] Austin Campbell:

• Introduces the Ethereum Foundation’s new 38-page mission statement emphasizing “self-sovereignty” and the new CROPS framework (Censorship-resistance, Open source, Free privacy, Security).
• Critiques the “trilemma”: “You can have decentralization, real world assets, or smart contracts—pick any two. … Trying to do all three is an untenable situation.”

The Core Disagreement

[44:21] Chris Perkins:

• “The EF is acting as it probably should act in a mature environment—a nonprofit shepherding network principles... The EF does not control Ethereum.”
• Draws analogy to the Internet: “Internet has no foundation, Ethereum wants to be that decentralized medium.”
• “Let the ecosystem be censorship resistant, decentralized, and have the apps be thoughtful in their controls. … I just think people have been way too hard on them.” [55:58]

[48:58] Austin Campbell:

• “I don’t have a problem with arguing for a decentralized chain. … My worry is that they don’t understand the trade-offs.”
• Argues: when you introduce RWA with smart contracts on a self-sovereign chain, without network-level controls, it’s a recipe for future market-wide blowups.
• Example: “If Tether gets hacked, they’re essentially the AIG who wrote all the CDS. Everything else goes.”

[51:36] Chris Perkins:

• “If a chain or an organization wants to roll back their chain… let them. But that’s not censorship resistant or self-sovereign.”

RWA Placement Recommendations

[57:19] Austin Campbell:

• Critiques private bank chains as “a bridge to nowhere.”
• Favors “public-permissioned chains” (Avalanche subnets, Stellar, Canton, Tempo) as more viable venues for complex RWA activity.
• Proposes a global, multi-financial-institution chain (akin to a decentralized DTCC) as an eventual solution.

[59:37] Chris Perkins:

• Highlights difficulty for institutions in navigating on-chain interactions with truly decentralized protocols.
• Celebrates diversity in the crypto ecosystem: “That’s the beauty of our space. … Ethereum’s big differentiator is that promise of decentralization.”

[60:33] Austin Campbell: Predicts that the chain which will ultimately secure RWAs at scale “has probably not been created yet—or if it has, it will look vastly different by the time we get there than it does right now.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “California energy policy is stupider than some of the NFT projects were.” —Austin Campbell [27:42]
• “Sometimes we ignore common standards of law... Insider trading? Illegal. Manipulate markets? Illegal.” —Chris Perkins [06:37]
• “Private venture capital is a bubble... prediction markets are in a bubble too. … Try to sell the stock if you can.” —Rahm Aliwalia [11:18]
• “If Tether gets hacked, they’re essentially the AIG who wrote all the CDs. Everything else goes.” —Austin Campbell [54:55]

Timestamps for Core Segments

• 02:12 — FIA Boca conference recap (Perkins)
• 04:59 — Prediction markets, legal hurdles, and D.C. politics
• 11:50 — Iran conflict: geopolitics, oil, and market impact
• 27:40 — California energy quip and market outlook
• 32:01 — Bitcoin at $74K, crypto market perspectives
• 39:37 — Ethereum Foundation, mission statement, and RWA debate
• 54:55 — The “AIG” moment for Tether and DeFi systemic risk
• 57:19 — RWA platform design and multi-chain future
• 60:33 — Final prediction: future of RWA and platforms

Episode Tone & Takeaways

The discussion is sharp, opinionated, and grounded in first-hand industry, policy, and trading desk experience. The panelists are candid about regulatory headwinds, structural risks, and the realpolitik that underpins both global markets and crypto’s evolution.

• Crypto’s next leg up is tied to geopolitical stress and changed trust dynamics.
• Macro uncertainty breeds both opportunity and volatility—expect continued whipsawing until major risks resolve, especially those centered around oil and the Middle East.
• The race to build viable infrastructure for tokenized RWAs is still wide open, with no clear winner and significant design trade-offs remaining.

For listeners seeking a nuanced macro-crypto update and a brutally honest tech policy debate, this episode delivers.