Unchained: Bits + Bips – Is AI CapEx a Bubble? And Is Inflation Already Dead?

Host: Austin Campbell (with co-hosts Rahm Alawalia and Chris Perkins)
Guest: Stefan Rust (CEO, Truflation)
Release Date: February 18, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode tackles two white-hot topics at the intersection of crypto and macroeconomics:

1. The real state of inflation—has it already quietly died, and why are traditional data sources so out of sync with real-time calculations?
2. The explosive capital expenditure (CapEx) in AI—is it rational investment, or are we seeing the next big bubble?

With special guest Stefan Rust from Truflation, the group dives deep on data transparency, the shifting labor market, institutional adoption of on-chain assets, and where the AI infrastructure gold rush may ultimately lead. Throughout, they offer hard-nosed skepticism mixed with optimism about the future of real-time data and on-chain finance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Truflation vs. Traditional Inflation Metrics

[03:25–18:02] Introduction to Truflation and Real-Time Inflation

• Truflation's Model: Stefan Rust explains that Truflation arose to address the opacity and lag in traditional inflation metrics (BLS/CPI). They aggregate data on nearly 30 million items across 100 providers, capturing real-time cost-of-living changes.

  “It could do with a hell of a lot more transparency, more immutability, accessibility and automation in that whole process.” – Stefan Rust [03:25]

• Accuracy and Adoption: Truflation has achieved a 99.93% replication rate of BLS numbers but delivers results weeks ahead, making it popular with financial institutions and macro traders.

• Current Picture: Truflation measures current inflation below 1%, far lower than reported CPI, with recent upticks linked mainly to transportation costs [07:12].

[09:06] Wage and Labor Market Dynamics

• Rust distinguishes between wage inflation (tracked separately) and goods/services-based inflation, noting that real price pain for consumers over the past five years is significant:

  “If we look at it five years back… it's 27% or 28% inflation over the last five years.” – Stefan Rust [22:21]

• Labor market bifurcation: Older workers not seeking new jobs; younger grads struggling to enter workforce; military hiring offsets some softness [09:31].

2. Discrepancies & Critiques of Official Data

[10:35–11:09] Flawed Government Methodologies

• BLS’s “ghost jobs” problem: Overstating employment by hundreds of thousands, extrapolated from business formation, then revising numbers downward.

  “How do you get your numbers wrong by 400,000, Stefan? ...they had 400,000 ghost jobs last year.” – Chris Perkins [10:35]

• Regulatory heavy environments are stifling new business formation, compounding data weaknesses.

3. Input Costs, Commodities, and Future Inflation

[13:06–15:16] Commodities, Tariffs, and Global Trade

• Truflation customers demand forecasting, but Rust remains skeptical about sustained price pressures from tariffs or raw materials. The scale and productivity gains in AI/robotics are expected to counter inflation:

  "We just believe the volume and the scale are going to bring down unit costs significantly. And with robotics and AI coming in…the unit costs at the end…is not going to be significant enough to really have a big impact on inflation." – Stefan Rust [13:06]

• Contrary to media narratives, global trade is booming (“the fabric of global trade has never been stronger than it is right now”).

4. Real Estate and Service Inflation

[15:16–24:10] Housing Market Complexity, Services Domination

• Housing “headline” prices are stable, but real rents are distorted by untracked subsidies (e.g., free rent months). Regulatory barriers in “tight” housing markets like NYC/SF restrict new supply, unlike Austin, where building is easier.
• Strong service (especially healthcare) inflation persists, compared to declining goods inflation. Healthcare cost data collection is cited as a big opportunity for improvement.

5. Institutional & Trader Adoption of Truflation

[17:17–25:35] Social Consensus Shift

• Truflation has gained serious traction during inflation spikes, especially with macro traders. Hedge funds and institutions are incorporating truflation as a "lead indicator" to inform trading and risk decisions.

  "Now it's just swinging over into more institutional hedge funds, big private equity traders that are starting to use this data more and more." – Stefan Rust [18:02]

• Younger generation analysts are adopting truflation as their "source of truth" for buying crypto, trading currencies, and investment regimes.

6. Blockchain as Infrastructure for Real-Time Data

[27:05–31:12] How Truflation Uses Blockchain

• Early partnership with Chainlink: Truflation provides oracles for Ethereum.
• Built an SQL-native blockchain with Quill to handle high volumes, data transparency, auditability, and on-chain smart contracts for financial data prediction markets.

  “We needed to have a consensus algorithm to verify all the data. We needed an explorer so people could find and track and trace the data…We brought Quill in house and…it's on testnet right now.” – Stefan Rust [27:30]

7. AI CapEx: Bubble or Rational Bet?

[33:13–55:19] The AI CapEx Surge Debate

• Explosive infrastructure investments: Mag 7 AI CapEx commitments are at $700B+, e.g., Amazon’s $200B, Meta’s ~$125B.
• Concern about returns: “hyperscalers are spending ahead of clearly disclosed unit economics for AI…hard to fade some of these companies.” – Austin Campbell [33:13]
• Skeptical view:

  "Those numbers aren't real; they're way ahead of their skis and that you'll probably see those contracts, those revenue performance obligations not be met. I don't think that debt is worth par value." – Rahm Alawalia [35:02]

8. Compute as a New Commodity, Decentralization and Inflation

[38:01–40:18]

• Compute (and energy to run it) is seen as the future’s key commodity—decentralization will democratize and potentially deflate these costs.
• Emergence of new indexes: tracking hash power, gas fees, yields across Ethereum, Solana, etc. as proto-economies with inflation and deflation built in.

9. AI Agents, Value Capture, and Crypto Rails

[41:41–47:52] Agents, Super Apps, Stablecoins

• Discussion about whether model companies (like OpenAI) or infrastructure (Nvidia, dominant rails) will capture the AI boom's value.
• Agentic commerce (autonomous agents transacting) will demand high-throughput, low-cost payment systems; consensus is on USD stablecoins being the “currency of commerce” for agents.

  "The bet pretty clearly appears to be US dollar stablecoins is the dominant method of payment…agents are going to be doing like vast numbers of microtransactions..." – Austin Campbell [44:26]

10. Implications for Financial Markets and Macro Risks

[49:03–55:19] The MAG7 Stocks Dilemma

• AI CapEx may erode free cash flow for key tech stocks ("they've all been buying Nvidia's shares instead of their own" [47:52]).
• Echoes of the 2008 financial crisis in the form of overvalued debt and equity.
• The AI agent revolution may further pressure traditional business models and challenge inefficient, rent-seeking intermediaries (e.g., card networks and payment rails).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Stefan Rust on Transparency:

  "In a world of technology, Internet, blockchain, web3, we felt that [measuring inflation] could do with a hell of a lot more transparency, more immutability, accessibility and automation in that whole process." [03:25]

• Chris Perkins on AI as Commodity:

  "It feels like compute is going to be probably arguably the most, one of the most important commodities going forward." [37:10]

• Rahm Alawalia on AI CapEx Risks:

  "There are echoes of 2008 when you had debt that wasn't worth par, that was being issued at par, and you had equity securities that were highly inflated. So I don't think it's great for Max 7." [49:32]

• Stefan Rust on Agents:

  "Agents and LLMs, I mean, what currency do you think they're going to want to take? Are they going to take crypto assets? Are they going to take digital stablecoins? What currency are you going to pay for these agents?" [44:07]

• Chris Perkins on Institutional Adoption:

  "You're seeing an absolute manifestation that this error of regulatory risk is over. Under the Gensler era, there's no way BlackRock or Apollo would have come into the space." [54:54]

Key Timestamps and Segment Highlights

• 03:25 — Stefan Rust explains the founding and operation of Truflation.
• 07:12 — Real-time inflation is <1%, with recent upticks from transportation costs.
• 10:35 — Exposing the flaws in BLS employment statistics and "ghost jobs".
• 13:06 — Commodity prices up, but scale and AI productivity are pushing inflation down.
• 15:16 — Housing inflation is more about local regulation and untracked subsidies.
• 18:02 — Truflation’s rise and how macro traders and institutions use their numbers.
• 27:30 — Deep dive on blockchain infrastructure powering Truflation.
• 33:13 — Pivot to AI CapEx: Are these investments rational or a bubble?
• 35:02 — Rahm argues current AI spending is overhyped and likely unsustainable.
• 38:01 — Compute and energy as key commodities; blockchain economics as new measurement frontiers.
• 41:41 — The coming wave of agentic commerce; stablecoins as preferred currency.
• 49:03 — MAG7 CapEx and stock buybacks; concerns about tech majors' future earnings and capital structure.
• 55:31 — Stablecoins and blockchain rails could create deflation by stripping out payment fees.
• 56:48 — Solana emerging as a payments contender due to agentic optimization for low fees and high throughput.
• 57:17 — Next-wave deflation: AI agents learning human tasks, automating skilled labor.
• 60:54 — Institutional adoption of DeFi rails even as token prices lag; knowledge gap for traditional finance.
• 62:55 — Regulatory thaw and the normalization of on-chain financial products in public markets.

Flow and Tone

The conversation was lively, skeptical, and unsentimental—balancing optimism about technological progress with wariness over hype, bad data, and unresolved regulatory bottlenecks. Speakers frequently challenged each other, particularly around the potential for another 2008-style meltdown due to AI CapEx exuberance.

Summary for Non-Listeners

If you missed the episode, you’ll come away understanding:

• Why inflation may already be “dead” in real-time, even as official stats lag.
• How alternative data providers like Truflation are shifting from curiosity to critical financial infrastructure.
• Why the AI boom’s CapEx rush may repeat past financial bubbles, and who stands to benefit or lose (hint: infrastructure and “picks and shovels” may outperform the model builders).
• How stablecoins and blockchain rails could radically lower payments costs and drive new efficiencies, especially in an AI-agent-dominated future.
• Why regulatory shifts and institutional inertia still shape the pace of adoption for all of the above.
• And, that skeptics remain wary: “It's just insanity to expect that the CFOs of these publicly traded companies will say let me give you my earnings OpenAI and anthropic so you can achieve your forecast for your...private market venture investor.” – Rahm Alawalia [49:29]

For more, visit: [Unchained Podcast Site] and subscribe to Bits + Bips for ongoing crypto and macro crossfire.