Unchained: Bits + Bips — What Happens to Markets Now That the U.S. Has Struck Iran?

Host: Steve Ehrlich (Head of Research, Sharplink)
Guest: Charles Myers (Founder & CEO, Signum Global Advisors)
Date: March 2, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode explores the rapidly shifting intersection between geopolitics, macroeconomics, and the crypto markets in response to recent U.S. military actions against Iran. Steve Ehrlich interviews Charles Myers, a veteran foreign policy advisor and geopolitical risk expert, about current global hotspots, the implications for financial markets, how "America First" doctrine is guiding U.S. foreign policy, and why traditional frameworks are failing. The conversation also touches on prediction markets, Venezuela, the evolving AI sector, and the real use (and misuse) cases for crypto assets.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Evolving Nature of Geopolitical Risks

[03:31]

• No Discernible Patterns: Charles Myers emphasizes that geopolitical risk analysis increasingly defies historical pattern recognition due to changing actors and motives.

  • Quote: “There really are no discernible patterns in geopolitical risk because, again, actors, motives, objectives, and outcomes are always different.” — Charles Myers [03:31]

• Old Frameworks Are Obsolete: With Trump’s return and events like COVID and the Ukraine invasion, old frameworks like realism or neocon liberalism do not hold.

2. The "America First" Doctrine and Its Market Impact

[05:08]

• Beyond Isolationism: Myers argues "America First" is not just about domestic politics but signals a muscular, expansionist foreign policy, aggressive protectionism, and willingness for regime change and military interventions.

  • Quote: "America first was always also going to be about foreign policy and within that, pretty aggressive protectionism... a much more assertive, muscular, and I would argue expansionist slash imperialist foreign policy." — Charles Myers [05:08]

• Trump's Approaches: Trump’s administration is described as the most imperialist/expansionist since George W. Bush.

3. Investor Sentiment: "Sell America" and Safe Havens

[08:33]

• Waning U.S. Safe Haven Appeal: Global investors are questioning the U.S. as a safe haven, due to concerns about Fed independence, election integrity, and institutional stability.

  • Quote: "There’s a lot of concern... [about] some of the institutional damage that’s being done by the Trump administration." — Charles Myers [08:33]

• Sell America Theme: Despite bearish sentiment, actual de-risking is limited; U.S. equity markets rallied post-Liberation Day (April).

4. Market Guardrails & U.S. Political Stability

[12:30]

• Current Guardrails: Only three meaningful "guardrails" are working:

  1. Bond Market: Administration reacts to rising 10-year yields.
  2. Supreme Court: Rulings, such as striking down tariffs, show checks remain.
  3. Democratic House (anticipated): Could offer new legislative resistance if achieved in midterms.
  • Quote: "The only guardrail that's really working in the US today and for the last 13 months has been the bond market." — Charles Myers [12:30]

5. Iran: Diplomacy, Military Buildup, and Market Reactions

[14:55]

• Negotiation Precedes Escalation: Myers notes Trump’s consistent preference for negotiation but warns of potential limited military strikes as leverage.

  • Quote: "President Trump... has defaulted to his primary objective or his primary MO which is to negotiate. He always wants to negotiate first." — Charles Myers [14:55]

• Major Strike Possible in April: If nuclear deal talks fail (post-Trump/Xi summit), expect "shock and awe" actions to pursue regime decapitation.

• Limited vs. Major Strikes: Limited strikes mean surgical attacks; major strikes could target regime change and involve cyber and assassinations.

  • Quote: "A limited strike... means somewhat surgical ballistic missile strikes... A major military strike... 2 weeks, 10 days, 2 weeks of shock and awe." — Charles Myers [17:50]

• Oil Markets: Oil prices include a geopolitical risk premium; major strikes could trigger even more dramatic moves.

6. Prediction Markets & Trading Geopolitics

[21:28]

• Role & Limitations: Myers is personally a fan of prediction/betting markets (Polymarket, Kalshi), seeing them as useful sentiment indicators, but flags the risk of insider trading and regulatory scrutiny.

  • Quote: "I'm a fan... They've gotten better at predicting our election results... being able to make bets on political or other outcomes... is a good thing." — Charles Myers [21:28]

• Notable Trade Idea: Myers considers Donald Trump Jr. dramatically undervalued as a 2028 GOP nominee on prediction markets.

7. Venezuela, the Monroe (Donro) Doctrine & Energy Policy

[26:54]

• Monroe Doctrine Returns: U.S. regional hegemony and forced leadership changes are justified under a rebranded "Donro Doctrine."

  • Quote: "The Monroe Doctrine is back, and they've renamed it the Donro Doctrine, which I'm convinced the President named himself." — Charles Myers [26:54]

• Oil at The Center: Venezuela’s situation was about oil and lowering global prices; U.S. plans hinge on bolstering supply from Venezuela, Iran, and possibly Russia.

• Conference in Caracas: Myers is leading a major business delegation, focusing primarily on oil/gas and finance.

8. AI, U.S. Industrial Policy, and National Champions

[32:10]

• Industrial Policy on Steroids: The Trump administration doubles down on US stakes in strategic industries, protectionism, and supply chain security.

• OpenAI’s Future & Market Risk: Myers contends OpenAI’s tech isn’t the most advanced, its financial math doesn’t add up, and a government backstop is likely if needed due to systemic importance.

  • Quote: "Mathematically, these OpenAI will not be able to deliver, forget about earnings, they're not going to be able to deliver on sales estimates..." — Charles Myers [32:10]
  • Quote: "If OpenAI needs a backstop... the collateral damage... would be absolutely very painful." — Charles Myers [34:43]

• AI Displacement Fears: Investors rotating out of software and fintech due to perceived AI risk; Myers views current selloff as overdone.

9. Crypto: Future of Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Fundamentals

[37:06]

• Cautious on Crypto: Myers is bullish on stablecoins (especially their regulatory progress and support of dollar hegemony) but skeptical of Bitcoin as a risk/inflation hedge or genuine currency.

  • Quote: "It doesn't trade on fundamentals. It is not a risk hedge, it's not an inflation hedge, it is not a store of value and it is not a medium of exchange." — Charles Myers [37:06]

• Speculation vs. Utility: Without robust everyday use, Bitcoin will remain speculative.

  • Quote: "Until... a majority of Americans can use Bitcoin... it will continue to trade as a very speculative asset." — Charles Myers [39:05]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Geopolitical Risk:
  “AI... ultimately just recognizes patterns. There are no patterns.” — Charles Myers [03:31]

• America First:
  “We will probably have realized... the Trump administration has been the most imperialist... since George W. Bush.” — Charles Myers [05:08]

• U.S. Institutions:
  "The only guardrail that's really working in the US today... is the bond market." — Charles Myers [12:30]

• Iran Risk:
  “Could see a smaller strike. But if we don’t get to a deal... expect a major strike which will ultimately lead to decapitation of the regime.” — Charles Myers [14:55]

• Prediction Markets:
  "Don Jr... has a 1% probability of being the Republican nominee in 2028, that is way too low." — Charles Myers [21:28]

• Industrial Policy:
  “Trump... has put industrial policy on steroids, which is protectionism, tariffs and government taking stakes in companies.” — Charles Myers [32:10]

• Crypto Skepticism:
  "It doesn’t trade on fundamentals... it is not a risk hedge, it’s not an inflation hedge, it is not a store of value and it is not a medium of exchange." — Charles Myers [37:06]

Key Timestamps

• [03:31] — There are no patterns in geopolitical risk
• [05:08] — Trump’s “America First” and expansionist foreign policy
• [08:33] — Global bearishness toward U.S. (“Sell America” theme)
• [12:30] — Market guardrails: bond yields, Supreme Court, House
• [14:55] — Iran: Stalled diplomacy, military buildup, market risk
• [17:50] — Limited vs. major strikes, oil markets’ response
• [21:28] — Prediction markets’ role in forecasting/political trading
• [26:54] — Venezuela: U.S. energy strategy and the “Donro Doctrine”
• [32:10] — OpenAI, AI moonshot, and government stake scenarios
• [37:06] — Stablecoins vs. Bitcoin: fundamental skepticism

Conclusion

Charles Myers provides an unvarnished window into the uncertainty of today’s geopolitical landscape, arguing the playbook for analysts—and investors—must adapt to fast-evolving risks driven by U.S. expansionism, the shifting safe-haven status of American markets, commodity upheaval, AI disruption, and crypto’s struggle for mainstream utility. Throughout, he neither sugarcoats potential tail risks (e.g. military escalation in Iran, or regulatory hazards in prediction markets) nor dismisses optimism outright (on AI, Venezuelan revival, and the future of stablecoins). This lively, frank discussion offers crucial context and actionable frameworks for anyone grappling with the economic consequences of an increasingly volatile global order.