Unchained Podcast – Episode 919: “Bits + Bips: What’s Really Driving Bitcoin—and Who’s Driving Crypto Onchain?”

Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Steve Ehrlich (filling in for Laura Shin)
Guests:

• Ram Alawalia (CEO, Lumita)
• Austin Campbell (Zero Knowledge Consulting)
• Joshua Lim (FalconX)
• Ryan Yee (ex-Coinbase Ventures, “Onchain 5” series author)

Episode Overview

In this “double header” installment, the Unchained podcast explores the current fuel behind the ongoing crypto bull market and investigates the macro and micro factors influencing price action. The first half focuses on market momentum, macro trends, flows, and market structure. In the second, Ryan Yee dives deep into five companies (the “Onchain 5”) that are paving the way for the next tidal wave of crypto adoption.

1. Market Mood: Are We At Euphoria or Something Else?

Key Discussion (03:35 – 09:51)

• Panelists debate: Is the current mood genuine euphoria, or does the market still have room to run?
  • Austin Campbell (01:40): “All bull markets climb to some degree, both a wall of worry and certain levels of optimism. The point at which you know you’re at euphoria is when all of the bears have capitulated — and we’re not there yet.”
  • Ram Alawalia (03:31): Compares current animal spirits and price revaluations to neighborhood houses being marked up—momentum compounds until it doesn’t.
• Joshua Lim (04:36):
  • Recaps recent Asia crypto conferences: initial volatility from end-of-month “de-risking,” liquidations-created a base for recovery.
  • The “dollar debasement trade” (BTC/ETH/SOL as a hedge) still a leading narrative, “but crypto lags gold and equities” in reaching all-time highs.
  • Bitcoin hits a new high of $126K, attributed in part to geopolitical instability and demand for non-sovereign, uncensorable assets.
  • Inflows now rotating to strategies that generate protocol-level revenue (lending, staking, LSTs).
  • “There’s a renewed interest on the revenue meta of investing in crypto, which as most tradfi people just call investing.” (09:01)

Notable Moment

• Steve Ehrlich (09:51): “Let’s pour one out for the meme coins real quick.”
  The shift of risk-on capital from meme coins into more ‘serious’ revenue-generating protocols highlights a change in investor behavior.

2. Options Markets & Price Discovery

Key Discussion (09:51 – 13:04)

• Joshua Lim (10:13):
  • Institutional demand for BTC options is outpacing previous records. “The IBIT ETF options open interest now exceeds Deribit.”
  • Quarterly options expiry events now move spot prices, a major structural change.
  • “We’re at a point now where [options] are having some meaningful impact on spot prices.”
• Austin Campbell (11:39):
  • Draws analogy with stock options trading by U.S. retail (e.g., GameStop) and the maturing of Bitcoin financial markets: “Bitcoin is mainstream now.”

3. Is This Really a “Dollar Debasement” Rally?

Debate: What’s Driving the Bull Run? (13:04 – 22:42)

• Ram Alawalia:
  • Says debasement is a “narrative with legs,” not fully backed by data:
    • “The dollar is increasing in value... People like to call it [dollar debasement], but what it is is an asset revaluation—animal spirits.”
  • Market driven by momentum, not necessarily fundamentals or inflation hedge.
• Austin Campbell (25:32):
  • Notes the global, especially Asian, bid for BTC – Japan’s “run it hot” election outcome and food inflation reinforce the international demand for hard assets.

Quote:
“We’re gonna just keep doing this. Nothing stops this trade... The correct answer is get long hard assets and risk assets, probably using moderate amounts of leverage. If you could borrow in like dollar-denominated terms and go buy things like bitcoin.” (25:32 – Austin Campbell)

4. Rotation & Capital Flows: Who’s Chasing Performance, What’s Hot?

Sector Rotations and Hot Narratives (20:09 – 25:26)

• Joshua Lim:
  • Fund managers now hunting to outperform within the crypto ecosystem itself.
  • Niche narratives (privacy coins, Zcash, Monero) are seeing rapid price action after years of dormancy: “Zcash is trading at like $160. Two weeks ago, it was like a $40 token.” (20:09)
  • Dispersion between tokens and narrative-driven pumps is back.
• The party isn’t over yet: “Octave below euphoria,” with the possibility of a true blow-off top still ahead, likely in late 2025 or Q1 2026.

5. Macro Structure: Commodities, Risk, and Blow-Off Top Signals

Market Structure & Red Flags (28:33 – 37:33)

• Ram Alawalia (29:22):
  • Points out that industrial commodities (Invesco Commodity Index, oil) show no “real” dollar debasement; the narrative is not uniform across markets.
  • “This is momentum and traders and trends and trend following.”
• Red flags to watch:
  • Capitulation of prominent bears (e.g., Jim Chanos covering shorts in Bitcoin/MicroStrategy).
  • A lack of retail insane euphoria signals we’re not “all in” yet.
  • Fundamentals for altcoins still weak; Bitcoin and gold may continue to diverge from tech stocks and broad altcoin indices.

6. Crypto Market Plumbing: 24/7 Trading, Options, and Institutionalization

New Paradigms (34:22 – 40:57)

• CME to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options.
  • Trading never sleeps: “Everything is moving to 24/7 in general... 30 years forward, everything is trading 24/7.” (Austin Campbell, 35:41)
  • TradFi will struggle with weekends; blockchain rails will make 24/7 settlement possible.
  • The rise of AI-driven trading and algorithmic management.

7. DAOs, Loans, and DeFi: Where is Risk Building?

Future Risks and "How The Cycle Ends" (56:46 – 63:46)

• Joshua Lim (57:29):
  • Predicts next crypto “unwind” will happen within DeFi itself, not from uncollateralized lending a la BlockFi/Celsius:
    • Complex tokenized vaults mimicking traditional hedge fund strategies will be looped to increase yield, embedding hidden leverage.
  • “There’s going to be a ton of leverage built up into some of these [DeFi] trades... that will actually be how the deleveraging happens this cycle.”
• Austin Campbell (61:51):
  • Warns of single-point-of-failure risk:
    “The kind of thing that’s going to break the crypto rally badly is like North Korea compromising, like, Tether or Circle’s smart contract...”
  • The industry has not learned its lessons from TradFi on operational and security risk.

8. “Onchain 5” with Ryan Yee: Who’s Driving On-Chain Crypto Adoption?

Introduction (67:56 – 68:54)

• Ryan Yee (former Coinbase Ventures) presents the “Onchain 5”: Five companies best positioned to lead the next major adoption wave.
  1. Coinbase (Base L2)
  2. Robinhood
  3. Stripe (and its Tempo blockchain)
  4. Telegram (TON Network)
  5. Binance (and the BNB ecosystem)

Key Theme:

“Distribution is going to really be the defining variable given where crypto is in its current level of adoption.” (69:30 – Ryan Yee)

Deep Dives – Company-by-Company

Coinbase & Base (73:03 – 78:34)

• Base lets Coinbase leverage onchain infrastructure to efficiently provide financial services (loans, trading, custody).
• Upcoming Base token could serve as user/developer incentive—potentially a “super app.”
• “It really helps them scale this concept of financial services that would otherwise be not scalable or just a headache to deal with.” (73:03 – Ryan Yee)

Robinhood (80:28 – 88:06)

• Moving from “payment for order flow” (PFOF) TradFi reliance to potentially tokenized stock settlement and yield products on their Arbitrum-based L2.
• Potential to “bake” their economic edge (MEV/order flow) at the blockchain protocol layer.
• The biggest opportunity may be in tokenizing pre-IPO/private equity and blending TradFi with DeFi derivatives.

Stripe & Tempo Blockchain (89:08 – 94:08)

• Stripe’s new blockchain (Tempo) is a dedicated, modular payments chain.
• Stripe acquired Bridge to power one-click stablecoin issuance for merchants (“open issuance”).
• The play: retain margin, keep businesses “never leaving Stripe,” avoid launching its own stablecoin, and avoid conflict with clients. Instead, facilitate mass tokenization atop its infra.

Telegram & TON (95:51 – 103:49)

• Telegram is a “non-traditional tech company” with minimal U.S. exposure, raising operational funds through debt.
• TON token offers both a financial lifeline and a means to build in-app crypto utility for a billion users.
• Major challenge: activating the Telegram userbase on-chain and boosting ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) on TON.
• “The TON token is extremely interesting because it offers them kind of an alternative path where it can address both of those things [monetization and product growth].” (98:55 – Ryan Yee)

Binance & BNB (103:49 – 111:50)

• Binance has thrived with new regulatory clarity—and intense user loyalty.
• The BNB token acts as a de facto equity-like instrument, combining fee discounts, protocol utility, and investment value without being “stock.”
• “BNB is like the final boss of tokens... This is actually probably the model for how a lot of tokens are going to look like.” (106:34 – Ryan Yee)

9. The Big Picture: Lessons, Risks & Future Outlook

Closing Reflections (111:50 – 114:43)

• Ryan Yee:
  • We’re at a “moment of exponential adoption,” as companies learn to truly harness the 5–10 on-chain tech use cases that have “worked.”
  • “As these bets start to pan out across these five companies... it’s going to become clear to the world — it’s table stakes to have a crypto-forward, onchain strategy. If you don’t, you’re going to be left behind.”
• Watch for the next phase: More tech giants and fintechs realizing that onchain is becoming a necessary layer, paralleling the “everyone needs an AI strategy” narrative.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Austin Campbell (01:40):
  “All bull markets climb to some degree, both a wall of worry and certain levels of optimism. The point at which you know you’re at euphoria is when all of the bears capitulate and we’re not there yet.”

• Joshua Lim (09:01):
  “There’s now this renewed interest on the revenue meta of investing in crypto, which as most tradfi people just call investing.”

• Ram Alawalia (16:10):
  “The debasement trade is a narrative that got momentum and legs underneath it... What it is is an asset revaluation. This is animal spirits, this is excitement.”

• Ram Alawalia (29:22):
  “If there’s dollar debasement, then the core energy source that runs the real economy should be repricing higher. In real terms, it’s not. Oil’s at $60 a barrel. This is momentum and traders and trends and trend-following.”

• Austin Campbell (35:41):
  “My central opinion is 30 years forward, everything is trading 24/7.”

• Joshua Lim (57:29):
  “Things like DATS are not inherently that levered... The vast majority [will never issue debt]… I think the next cycle unwind will be in DeFi, with leverage in tokenized vaults and wrapper strategies.”

• Ryan Yee (69:30):
  “Distribution is going to really be the defining variable given where crypto is in its current level of adoption.”

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• 03:35 – Market Mood & Euphoria Debate
• 09:51 – Options Markets Start to Move Spot
• 13:04 – “Debasement” Narrative Dissected
• 20:09 – Dispersion/Rotations: Privacy Coins & Revenue Meta
• 28:33 – How to Spot a Blow-Off Top
• 34:22 – 24/7 Market Structure & AI Trading
• 56:46 – What Ends the Cycle? DeFi Leverage Risks
• 67:56 – Onchain 5 Introduction (Ryan Yee)
• 73:03 – Deep Dive: Coinbase/Base
• 80:28 – Deep Dive: Robinhood
• 89:08 – Deep Dive: Stripe
• 95:51 – Deep Dive: Telegram
• 103:49 – Deep Dive: Binance
• 111:50 – Key Takeaways & Future Outlook

Summary Takeaways

• The current bull run is more “animal spirits” and performance-chasing than a true inflation hedge—market structure is changing.
• Bitcoin has finally reached mainstream status in options and spot markets; the next big move could come from DeFi leverage and new structural risks, not lender blowups.
• Industry focus is shifting toward projects that generate real revenues and protocol-level yield; meme coins and pure speculation are waning.
• The “Onchain 5”—Coinbase, Robinhood, Stripe, Telegram, and Binance—are best positioned to drive the next wave of real-world crypto user adoption.
• Institutional infrastructure (24/7 trading, institutional custody, and new token models) is bringing TradFi and DeFi objectives closer together—but will require a new approach to risk, security, and regulation.

For further reading:
Check the show notes for Ryan Yee’s “Onchain 5” series and follow Unchained for upcoming episodes and features!