Unchained – Bits + Bips: Where Is the Most Wealth to Be Made in Crypto: DeFi or CeFi?

Episode 913 | October 1, 2025

Host: Laura Shin (guest hosting: Stephen)
Guests: Bill Barhardt (Abra), Rahm (Lumita), Robert Lesner (Compound, Superstate)

Overview

This episode of Bits + Bips, hosted by Stephen in Laura Shin's place, dives into the ongoing debate about where the biggest opportunities – and fortunes – are emerging in crypto: decentralized finance (DeFi) or centralized finance (CeFi). The panel, featuring heavyweights Bill Barhardt (Abra), Rahm (Lumita), and Robert Lesner (Compound/Superstate), examines everything from market cycles and macro outlook to the implications of payments giants like Swift entering the blockchain space, the spectacular rise of leveraged trading on platforms like Hyper Liquid and Aster, the shifting battleground between perps (perpetual swaps) and spot markets, and where the next wave of crypto billionaires could emerge.

The conversation is engaging, occasionally irreverent, and studded with memorable one-liners, trumpet calls for healthy skepticism on hype cycles, and frank assessments on the future of crypto-finance infrastructure.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Market Sentiment and Macro Trends

[03:26 – 08:58]

• Q4 Bullishness Returns: Bill Barhardt expresses strong bullishness for Q4, referencing macro factors like the Treasury general account depleting and resilience in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.

• Seasonality in Markets: Rahm points out that September is traditionally the roughest period, with a "local bottom" likely behind, as evidenced by positive price action and robust GDP numbers.

• Volatility and Stability: The panel laments the reduced volatility in Bitcoin, noting how crypto has become less exciting for volatility-seeking traders, though this increased stability is a sign of market maturity.

  “At historic low volatility … it used to be that you could see Bitcoin fall 25% in 10 days and sky was falling until it wasn’t … That volatility, it feels like it’s gone.”
  — Bill Barhardt [06:44]

2. The U.S. Government Shutdown Drama: Markets’ Real Reaction

[09:09 – 12:47]

• Political Theatrics, Real Impact Is Minimal: Rahm, citing Lumita research, claims shutdowns typically generate an immediate price drop but are quickly discounted by the market.

• Long-Term Effects: The consensus is that unless a shutdown drags on for months, it’s a “nothing burger.”

  “It will get passed. It’s unfortunate that the United States has to deal with this as a, like, a brand for our debt ... But, you know, it is what it is.”
  — Rahm [11:43]

3. Swift’s Blockchain Play & The Stablecoin/Banks Battleground

[12:47 – 24:51]

• Swift’s Announcement: Swift’s exploration of building a Layer 2 solution on Ethereum is seen by Bill as both overdue and necessary, given competitive pressure from stablecoins and tokenization.

• Pitfalls of Incumbents: Both Robert and Rahm are skeptical that Swift or traditional banks can move fast enough to eclipse crypto-native stablecoin innovations, citing the network effects and speed of new entrants.

  “Crypto gets excited about any large tradfi company making an announcement ... but I am not bullish on Swift’s long-term prospects.”
  — Bill Barhardt [14:39]

• Banks vs. Crypto-Natives: The discussion highlights the long-standing inertia of banks and the rapid expansion of crypto-native solutions like Tether and Circle. Bill predicts a parallel universe where crypto-native stablecoins dominate, rather than bank-issued solutions.

  “We’re still talking about what the banks are going to do, but they haven’t done it yet. And so I don’t think banks are going to be purveyors of anything. I think crypto is going to continue to evolve in its own parallel universe.”
  — Bill Barhardt [24:07]

4. Tokenization Hype & the Problem of ‘Fake It Till You Make It’ Funding

[30:20 – 35:35]

• Skepticism on Big Treasury Announcements: Stephen details a recent “AI blockchain” launch that headlined a $401M raise but, upon closer inspection, only gathered ~$14M in fresh funds, with much of the rest being in-kind or loans.

• Facade and Dangers to Retail: Robert and Rahm castigate these deals as “facade,” warning that retail investors risk being left holding the bag.

  “You can’t have a company naturally say, ‘Oh, we’ve decided to adopt, you know, the token of a blockchain that has not launched yet as our reserve.’ ... we’re getting into nutty territory that’s sort of making a mockery of the registration process.”
  — Robert Lesner [30:36]

• Locked Tokens Loophole: There’s concern about founders using locked tokens as equity, effectively bypassing the spirit of token vesting.

5. DeFi vs. CeFi – Hyper Liquid, Aster, Market Share, and the Leverage Arms Race

[36:07 – 56:44]

• Rise of Leveraged On-Chain Perps: Rahm explains how platforms like Hyper Liquid (built on Ethereum) and Binance’s Aster are driving massive growth through high leverage and aggressive marketing and airdrop campaigns.

• Regulatory Perspective: Hyper Liquid and Aster target non-U.S. markets due to CFTC rules, but U.S. demand is undeniable.

• Liquidity Is King: Panelists agree derivatives markets are perpetually in flux, with liquidity dictating winners rather than brand loyalty or stickiness.

  “Any perp exchange will win when it has that critical mass of liquidity. When another perp exchange comes with more liquidity, all the traders move … These things can die very fast and it means they can be built very fast.”
  — Robert Lesner [51:41]

• CeFi’s Unparalleled Profits: Lengthy discussion about Binance, Tether, and the staggering wealth accrued by their founders.

  • “CZ is worth more than Larry Ellison … CZ will go down history as one of the most successful technology entrepreneurs of all time. And he’s not on the Forbes list. He should be.”
    — Rahm [46:46]

• DeFi Billionaires to Emerge: Bill posits the next round of billionaires will come from DeFi apps yet to scale, not CeFi giants.

6. The Future: Perpification, Spot Market Decline, and Final Thoughts

Perpetuals vs. Spot Markets

[58:55 – 62:15]

• The Age of Perps Has Arrived: Robert Lesner makes the call that “perpification” (rise of perpetual swaps) will eclipse spot trading, as the leverage and product design are more appealing for most users.

  “We’ve now entered perpification. I think it’s a superior form factor for most users and I think that Spot markets are going to slowly die out relative to perps.”
  — Robert Lesner [61:30]

Stablecoins and Swift

• Winners Won’t Be Who You Think: Bill reiterates that while stablecoin markets will balloon, the winners won’t be banks or Swift, but truly crypto-native players.

Contrarian & Closing Thoughts

• Sometimes Best to Do Nothing: Rahm counsels patience – not trading every move, but “just wait a week, reassess, let things cool off.” [62:04]

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On hype and consortia:

  “Reminds me of mobile payments consortia 10 to 15 years ago. Meanwhile, many net new giants like Tether will be formed building 10x better products.”
  — Rahm, quoting Mike Dudas [19:49]

• On swift’s move:

  “I think it's the surrender as much as the excitement about bringing someone on."
  — Stephen [17:08]

• On leverage:

  “You can trade Tesla shares on Aster, right. Or the equivalent of Tesla shares with what, 500x leverage? I mean, that's insane.”
  — Bill Barhardt [39:26]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [03:26] Current market sentiment; Q4 outlook
• [09:09] US government shutdown's real economic and market effects
• [12:47] Swift’s Layer 2 ambitions and threat from stablecoins
• [18:02] Robert Lesner joins; analysis of Swift’s (and Chainlink’s) blockchain play
• [30:20] Deconstructing a “$401M” raise for a yet-to-launch blockchain; dangers for retail
• [36:07] The leveraged trading arms race: Hyper Liquid, Aster, and Binance
• [41:18] Discussion on Binance’s business, Tether, and the scale of new crypto wealth
• [46:46] CZ and the untold story of crypto’s richest founders
• [58:55] Closing: Contrarian/end-of-show takes on stablecoin and spot market futures
• [61:30] Robert Lesner's “perpification” hypothesis
• [63:03] Brief debate on “reversible transactions” (Circle/FT proposal) and crypto fundamentals

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “At historic low volatility … That volatility, it feels like it’s gone.”
  — Bill Barhardt [06:44]
• “It will get passed. … This is all theatrics, though. It will get passed.”
  — Rahm [11:43]
• “Crypto gets excited about any large tradfi company making an announcement ... but ... I am not bullish on Swift’s long-term prospects.”
  — Bill Barhardt [14:39]
• “The bigger something is, the slower it is to steer the giant ship, and the smaller something is, the faster it is to get to your destination.”
  — Robert Lesner [18:45]
• “We’re still talking about what the banks are going to do, but they haven’t done it yet. … Crypto is going to continue to evolve in its own parallel universe.”
  — Bill Barhardt [24:07]
• “It’s actually retail investors, those are the ones that are most at risk. And deal quality is just getting worse. I don’t think that turns around until the next cycle, actually.”
  — Rahm [33:15]
• “CZ is worth more than Larry Ellison … CZ will go down history as one of the most successful technology entrepreneurs of all time. And he’s not on the Forbes list.”
  — Rahm [46:46]
• “The defi billionaires haven’t come yet and I think they’re going to be bigger.”
  — Bill Barhardt [47:41]
• “We’ve now entered perpification. I think it’s a superior form factor for most users and I think that Spot markets are going to slowly die out relative to perps.”
  — Robert Lesner [61:30]

Conclusion

This episode telegraphs an emerging consensus among crypto insiders: DeFi’s biggest fortunes are yet to emerge, CeFi’s winners are monarchs but vulnerable to disruption, and the name of the game – whether with stablecoins, perpetual trading, or Layer 2s – is speed, radical user-centricity, and relentless pragmatism. The panel urges listeners to maintain skepticism, read the fine print, and recognize how fast new titans can rise or fall in crypto’s parallel financial universe.

[Full episode available via Unchained Podcast]