Unchained: Bits + Bips – Why Bitcoin Will Keep Going Down

Episode 956 | November 22, 2025
Host: Laura Shin (absent, episode hosted by Stephen Ehrlich)
Guest: Marcus Thielen, Head of Research at 10X Research

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the current state of the crypto markets—Bitcoin in particular—following recent macroeconomic events and volatile price action. Marcus Thielen, a well-respected market analyst, discusses the technical and fundamental reasons behind the persistent bearishness, the unique character of this market downturn, tactical trading approaches in a choppy market, and the broader implications for altcoins, ETFs, DATs, and the coming year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Reaction to Nvidia Earnings and Macro Overhangs

• Temporary Relief, Not a Turnaround: Nvidia’s strong earnings briefly lifted crypto, but Thielen views the rally as "a temporary rebound" for Bitcoin and the broader market ([03:44]).
• Macro Factors Still in Play:
  • Hawkish Fed stance remains unfriendly to risk assets.
  • Institutional book-cleaning heading into year-end adds to selling pressure:

    “People need to clean up their books into year end ... that’s going to remain an overhang until really year end.” – Marcus Thielen ([04:33])

• Severely Negative Sentiment:

  “We hardly took a negative here because we’re already so low ... From a technical perspective we can have some rebound. But the question really is how long is this going to last?” – Marcus Thielen ([04:54])

2. Defining and Diagnosing the Bear Market

• Beyond TradFi Metrics:
  • The conventional 20% drop from highs is too blunt for crypto’s volatility.
  • Thielen uses technicals (21-week and 50-week moving average) and on-chain indicators such as the short-term realized price—average price of purchases in last 155 days.
• Bearish Confirmation:

  “Based on those indicators, Bitcoin has clearly been in a bear market since actually late last month ... a lot of those indicators turned down.” – Marcus Thielen ([07:28])

  • When BTC is below these thresholds, many traders find themselves underwater and prone to capitulation.

3. Unique Aspects of the Current Downturn

• Lack of Clear Bottom/Catalyst:
  • Unlike previous periods (e.g., 2022's FTX collapse or "Trump Liberation Day tariffs"), there’s no obvious single event signaling the bottom. – “Where is really the low here, there is some more liquidity, let’s say at 84,000 ... the next level is probably the 73,000.” ([10:36])
• Void of Support:
  • The rapid move from $67k to $93k in two weeks last year created a technical vacuum—a price zone with little trading activity or support ([09:53]).
• Stop-and-Go Bull Market:
  • Short violent upswings on catalysts, then long periods of sideways action or decline.

4. Insights on Liquidations and Market Structure

• October 10 Crash:
  • Both longs and many shorts were stopped out, which was unusual:

    “The liquidations on Binance were only 59% longs ... a mismatch between people’s trading books that were basically market neutral.” ([14:10])

• Retail and Institutional Sentiment:
  • Many newcomers and even institutions now sit at or below breakeven, creating further fragility.

5. Tactical Trading in a Bearish Environment

• Relief Rally Playbook:
  • Technical indicators like RSI and stochastics at oversold levels may signal short-lived rallies, but resistance at $100,000 is a ceiling ([15:55]).
• Market Signals to Watch:
  • Coinbase Premium/Discount: Discount suggests US flows are selling; narrowing of discount and net buying may indicate emerging support ([16:30]).
  • Options Skew: The previously strong preference for puts has moderated, suggesting the worst of the negativity may be passing—for now.

6. Ethereum and Altcoin Outlook

• Cautiously Defining Value:
  • Ethereum value zone around $3,300, but macro and regulatory headwinds dominate ([19:30]).

  “Defining value in crypto has always been quite difficult ... value is only really going to come if there’s more transactions on DeFi ...” – Marcus Thielen ([20:42])

• Altcoins Struggling:
  • Record unlocks, VC sell-pressure, and lack of safe havens except USDC redemptions.

  “People aren’t going from altcoins to Bitcoin, they’re going to USDC and probably off-ramping. It’s small but it’s almost like people don’t want to keep a lot of money in crypto right now.” ([22:25])

7. DATs and ETFs: Unraveling the Bubble

• Trading at Premiums Proved Costly:
  • Retail investors bought DAT shares at large NAV premiums, much of which has now evaporated:

    "MicroStrategy raised around $45 billion since August 2020 ... $20 billion was raised with an NAV above 1 ... basically $20 billion has been literally evaporated.” ([25:50])

• ETF Flows and Institutional Pain:
  • Year-to-date, ETFs are the only significant net buyers, now deeply underwater.
• Comparisons with Japanese Market:
  • MetaPlanet traded at extreme bitcoin equivalents, now hugely underwater.
• Flight from ETH and Staking Crystalizes Headwinds:
  • Staking opportunities less appealing (yield < Treasury rates). BlackRock ETF’s low fees make them even harder for traditional DATs to compete ([31:11]).
• Hidden Costs for Retail:

  “...a lot of the DATs have 10-year contracts with strategic advisors, usually gets 1% of AUM per year...other hidden warrants and costs...these can easily add up to 1.5-2% depending on which DAT you look at.” ([31:51])

8. Year-End and 2026 Outlook

• Macro Remains the Driver:
  • Hawkish Fed likely on hold through early 2026; no easing tailwind expected.
• Bitcoin’s “Fourth Year” Weakness:
  • Historically, Bitcoin’s fourth year in the cycle is weak—

    “When you look deeper, there’s more meaning in this fourth year where things need to reset ... that's why we think next year will also be a tough time.” ([36:38])

• Inflection Catalysts to Watch:
  • Possible BlackRock Ethereum ETF marketing push could revive DeFi interest, but only if macro aligns positively.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Bearish Technicals and Trading Ranges

• “Every time bitcoin makes a new all-time high, but doesn’t really accelerate and goes back to this level, it actually seems to be a level where it does collapse.” — Marcus Thielen ([12:33])

On Market Psychology and Reset

• “The human life is really built on ... these four cycles, four seasons ... there’s a more meaning in this fourth year where things need to reset itself.” — Marcus Thielen ([36:23])

On DATs, Retail Pain, and Hidden Fees

• “MicroStrategy raised around $45 billion since August 2020, and around $20 billion was raised with an NAV above 1. So basically retail investors ... paid a premium of $20 billion in total ... $20 billion has been literally evaporated.” — Marcus Thielen ([25:50])
• “A lot of the DATs have, you know, 10 year contracts with the strategic advisor ... these costs can easily add up to 1.5-2% depending on which DAT you look at.” ([31:51])

Trading Tactics in Bear Markets

• “In these bear markets we see rallies of like 10% very quickly. I think we can capture those rallies up until the price goes back to some resistance level ... the resistance is around 100,000.” — Marcus Thielen ([17:52])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:44 | Nvidia earnings recap, crypto’s “temporary” rebound | | 05:09 | What is a bear market in crypto? (Indicators and technicals) | | 08:17 | Comparing this bear to past cycles and lack of a clear bottom | | 09:48 | Unique trading ranges, void of support, and the trouble with all-time highs | | 14:10 | October 10th crash, unprecedented liquidations | | 15:55 | Tactical trading strategies in a bearish climate | | 19:30 | Ethereum “value” and DeFi outlook | | 22:00 | Altcoins, stablecoin redemptions, and VC-driven selling pressure | | 23:56 | DATs, ETFs, and retail losses—understanding the premium bubble collapse | | 31:11 | Hidden costs and the stakes of staking ETFs vs. DATs | | 35:58 | Final thoughts: Year-end macro, the bitcoin “fourth year” effect, and catalysts to watch |

Tone & Final Takeaways

Thielen’s analysis is pragmatic and unsentimental, blending technical rigor with macro awareness and a clear-eyed assessment of crypto’s unique boom/bust cycles. The overriding message: This bear market is fundamentally different—shaped by institutional flows, ETF dynamics, and Fed policy far more than by narratives or “halving” cycles. The crypto landscape may offer sharp rallies and select opportunities, but for now, macro headwinds outweigh local catalysts. Patience, caution, and attention to structural flows are paramount in navigating the coming months.

For listeners: This episode is a must-listen for anyone considering new entries into crypto, struggling with underwater positions, or attempting to navigate a rapidly evolving ETF/altcoin ecosystem. Thielen’s evidence-based perspective can help traders and investors define value, measure risk, and survive until the next bull phase.