Unchained – “Bits + Bips: Why Iran Is Trump’s Greatest Taco. Plus, Is Elon’s TeraFab ‘Bullshit’?”

Host: Austin Campbell

Guests: Rahm Alawalia, Chris Perkins

Air date: March 25, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode of Unchained’s Bits and Bips, the hosts dig into the dramatic de-escalation between the US and Iran, its rippling effects across global markets—crypto included—and analyze whether recent headline-grabbing AI and chip announcements from Elon Musk and others are real innovation or empty hype. The crew also breaks down inflation, the Fed’s current dilemma, and the impact of AI on employment, management, and the investing landscape.

Iran Crisis – "Trump's Greatest Taco"

[01:40 – 09:40]

Geopolitical Backdrop

• Trump announced a sudden de-escalation with Iran, postponing planned strikes for five days in response to "very good and productive conversations."
• Global markets whipsawed: oil prices tumbled, gold fell, and Bitcoin rebounded above $71K.

Key Insights & Market Reaction

• Rahm Alawalia:

  • “Trump is doing the great taco, the taco of all tacos. This is like the burrito supreme and he is doing it with confidence. And chutzpah and just looking straight to the camera with no flinching and just winging it.” (06:32)
  • There’s chaos within Iran: “Are we seeing multiple voices starting to emerge inside Iran…they are no longer speaking with one voice, especially as we’ve been…bombing the hell out of them.” (07:25 – Austin paraphrasing Rahm)
  • Negotiations seem chaotic and public, with both sides contradicting each other.

• Chris Perkins on the timing and intentions:

  • “It's not surprising to me that the five day extension puts us back in when all markets are closed except for hyper liquid in crypto. Right. That's when [Trump] likes to make his moves and…be less disruptive.” (09:40)
  • US military deployments signal real escalation risks, while regionally, Gulf States are shifting their approaches as Iran’s threat becomes clearer.

Notable Moments

• On the “Trump put”: Rahm and Chris dissect how the U.S. President steps in to stabilize markets, acting to prevent crashes just as tensions hit a boiling point.
• Fracturing in Iran: Both agree that the multiplicity of voices and actions reflects instability inside Iran, raising uncertainty for the energy markets and geopolitics.

Markets, Inflation & the Fed’s Impossible Task

[15:33 – 34:24]

Macro Market Readings

• Diverging signals: Energy, commodities, and tech stocks all responding differently.
• Asian markets remain sharply sensitive to Strait of Hormuz risks, while U.S. markets are bracing for prolonged volatility.

Key Points

• Rahm Alawalia:

  • Markets are “trying to discount what’s happening next. It’s a period of high volatility and uncertainty.” (17:39)
  • Advises: “You don’t have to read every tea leaf…get small, go after high conviction opportunities.” (18:53)
  • Warns that inflation is deeply rooted: “The policies overall are inflationary. The divergence just shows the greater volatility. What’s not inflationary? You got war, $200 billion in spending requests. That's inflationary.” (24:06)

• Austin Campbell:

  • Fed is stuck: “The Fed genuinely doesn’t know where to go from here…it's the running joke on Wall street of you can't front run the guy who doesn't know what he's going to do.” (31:19)

• Chris Perkins:

  • Contrasts inflation concerns with AI-driven disinflation: “If the AI dream comes true, it's going to be highly disinflationary. So I mean there's a case to be made that this is transitory energy shocks against a much bigger disinflationary wave.” (25:03)

Notable Moment

• On U.S. resilience: The hosts agree the U.S. is less exposed to the Strait of Hormuz crisis than Asia, due to energy independence and strong domestic food production.
• On “kangaroo markets”: Austin likens current asset swings to 1970s stagflation, but Rahm and Chris point to major structural differences today.

Navigating Global Political Risk

[34:24–36:45]

• U.S. and Trump are not the only “chefs in the kitchen”—regional actors like Saudi Arabia may not tolerate previous status quos with Iran after recent escalations.
• Israel’s interests, regional power dynamics, and behind-the-scenes meetings all contribute to ongoing uncertainty.
• Rahm: “I think the IRGC doesn’t want more bombs to drop down on them and wants to survive. I would think that that's the path that they want to pursue.” (33:42)
• Austin: “Let’s be honest, [the U.S. and Iran] are not the only chefs in the kitchen at this point, given what has transpired.” (34:37)

AI Mania: Elon's TeraFab and the Real State of Disruption

[38:16 – 52:57]

Headlines & Skepticism

• Elon Musk unveils a supposed $25B AI chip fab in Texas, but the team casts strong doubt:

  • Rahm: “You need 20 to 25 billion dollars to start a fab. A fab is one of the most complex technologies human beings have ever created, second to the pyramids. TSM has invested 100 billions of dollars to figure this out. Tesla doesn't have the cash flow either to pull this off… So it seems like Elon's just trying to sell more of the future… So full disclosure there. Again, big believer in the technology…But I don't think this goes anywhere. It's not real.” (40:51)

• Jeff Bezos raising $100B for “Project Prometheus” to transform manufacturing with AI.

• Layoffs at crypto firms blamed on AI, but the reality is more about sector contraction.

  • Rahm: “They're not seeing software engineering displacement from AI, that's one second the companies that are laying off the most engineers are spending the most money on Nvidia and they're issuing debt to finance their cash flows…So yeah, this is not about AI displacing human talent. That's not happening yet.” (45:51)

Value Accrual and the Real AI Play

• Austin: Focus should be on who captures value: AI model builders or traditional industries that implement AI to upgrade their manufacturing/logistics.

  • “Is he [Bezos] looking to run that playbook again on manufacturing writ large with AI? That becomes a question to me as he’s unveiling this sort of thing...” (46:28)

• Rahm: “The benefits are there. It's the users, the end users…All this venture capital money is subsidizing the real economy…It's not this esoteric innovation like some transformation in biotechnology. It is basic day to day workflow automation…” (48:22)

• Chris: The potential of AI payments and crypto’s place in the AI revolution remains largely untapped, but huge for the future.

AI, Middle Management, and Future Work

[52:57 – 57:17]

• Zuckerberg’s “AI CEO” agent:
  • Austin: “Is this a leading indicator for people in middle management both at Meta and perhaps writ large that your days are numbered?” (50:26)
  • Rahm: “We already have a robot running Meta, so this is more evidence that we live in a simulation. But yeah, look, I think you’re going to see more of the menial tasks go away. That’s always the history of this stuff, right? …They move on to a higher value added, more meaningful, more satisfying work life.” (51:29)
• Higher-value, human-centric skills—like architecture, customer interaction, and critical thinking—will be more important and less automatable.
• Chris: Remains optimistic: “Honestly, people are resilient and I, I don’t bet against people. They tend to adapt very thoughtfully to innovation and technology…The people will want that human connection.” (53:03)

Broader Risks of Automation and AI

[55:26 – 58:32]

• Rahm: Concerned about declining population and rise of “automated lethality” (robots in war making conflict less costly and thus more likely).
  • “If you’re having more of this automated lethality, then the cost of conflict declines…Wouldn’t that increase the likelihood of actors like China then dusting robots engaging in conflict…” (55:26)
• Still, direct human connection, accountability, and political checks remain vital.

Lightning Round: Election Odds & Predictions

[58:32 – 61:12]

• Political dissatisfaction is at an all-time high, with both parties’ incumbents increasingly disliked.
• On Polymarket odds for the Senate:
  • Austin, Rahm, Chris: All predict Republicans retain the Senate, with possibility for House flipping to Democrats.
  • Chris: “Once the things settle with the war, you get oil down a little bit, gas prices come down, you get the Clarity act, which I’m excited about. Maybe just me…I think the Republicans stay in the Senate, probably House goes to the Democrats.” (60:40)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• Rahm: “Trump is doing the great taco, the taco of all tacos.” (06:32)
• Austin: “The Fed genuinely doesn’t know where to go from here… it’s the running joke on Wall street of you can't front run the guy who doesn't know what he's going to do.” (31:19)
• Rahm: “You already have a robot running Meta. So this is more evidence that we live in a simulation.” (51:29)

Key Takeaways

• On Iran & Markets: Geopolitical tensions produce rapid, outsized swings in energy, commodities, and crypto. Trump’s negotiation style—labeled “the greatest taco”—is as unconventional as ever, with global markets tracking every headline.
• On Inflation and the Fed: The Fed is split—caught between persistent inflation (especially from energy shocks) and the risk of slowing economic growth. Structural differences with the 1970s are important, and the U.S. remains relatively insulated.
• On AI & Layoffs: Most “AI-driven” layoffs are about cost-cutting, not automation. Actual displacement of engineers remains minimal. Real AI value accrues to users and implementing industries, while AI hype persists among founders and VCs.
• On Society & Politics: Both incumbents and the two main political parties are increasingly unpopular, opening doors for change or outsider candidates.
• On the Future of Work: Menial and routine jobs will likely be most disrupted by AI, but uniquely human skills and direct customer engagement will increase in value.

Suggested Listening Order (for the episode):

• [01:40] Iran situation and macro/crypto market responses
• [15:33] Market regime, inflation, and the Fed’s dilemma
• [38:16] AI: TeraFab, Bezos’ Project Prometheus, workforce changes
• [52:57] AI in management, societal risks, politics & predictions

For a world-class macro and crypto rundown—as well as snappy banter and unfiltered skepticism—this Bits and Bips episode is a must-listen for anyone tracking the intersection of geopolitics, money, and exponential technology.