Unchained - Bits + Bips: Why the Markets Now Have a Bullish Setup

Host: Laura Shin
Co-hosts: Austin Campbell (NYU Stern, Zero Knowledge Group), Chris Perkins (CoinFund), Rahm Maester (Lumina Wealth)
Date: November 25, 2025
Episode: 960

Episode Overview

This episode of Bits + Bips takes a lively, deeply informed dive into the interplay between crypto markets and the broader macro landscape. With volatility returning to digital assets, a shifting macro environment, and intriguing regulatory developments, hosts Austin Campbell, Chris Perkins, and Rahm Maester break down the current bullish setup, institutional progression, the fate of crypto-aligned public companies, and much more.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Current Market Backdrop: Detour or Death Trap?

Timestamp: 02:25–10:12

• Market Volatility & Macro Shifts:

  • Bitcoin price dropped to $82K before rebounding; altcoins were harder hit.
  • CME sees record daily volumes in crypto futures.
  • U.S. macro backdrop: President Trump’s China visit, strong retail sales, the market now pricing in a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.
  • "QT is coming to an end December 1st." — Chris Perkins (01:46)

• Bullish Setup & Market Sentiment:

  • Arthur Hayes sees improved liquidity as QT ends, US banks increase lending.
  • Retail investors are “exhausted” after recent drawdowns; institutions are methodically stepping in.
  • Strong earnings and government spending support a “Goldilocks macro setup.”
  • "You just had a negative sentiment from headlines that weren't reflected in earnings and earnings is strong... there is ROI, the data center spend." — Rahm Maester (05:03)

2. Institutions vs. Retail: Diverging Paths

Timestamp: 10:12–14:02

• Institutional Adoption:

  • Institutions push forward with products like Ethereum “risk-free rate” — big contracts signed even as retail cycles in and out.
  • Institutions mostly focus on Bitcoin and a few large tokens due to limited CME futures access.
  • “Retail comes, retail goes. Fed's in the driver's seat.” — Chris Perkins (06:54)

• Liquidity & Regulatory Headwinds:

  • Liquidity for alts forced offshore; lack of regulated futures is a bottleneck.
  • Risks: potential misses from Nvidia, quantum threats, Japan’s JGB yields, and ongoing tight liquidity.
  • "Retail is exhausted... there's this bigger flippening ... that's the institutions slowly, methodically marching forward as retail does what retail does." — Chris Perkins (06:54)

3. Divergence in Crypto Asset Classes

Timestamp: 11:56–16:41

• Bitcoin vs. Altcoins:

  • Bitcoin holds a “bid” from big money. In contrast, altcoins lack order book depth and are considered much riskier.
  • “A strategy that's long, top three and short the rest probably does well on average.” — Rahm Maester (11:56)

• Market Structure & Buyer Profiles:

  • Institutional buyers stick with liquid, large-cap tokens.
  • Retail invests in smaller, riskier projects — contributing to price divergence.

4. Macro, Credit, and Bank Health

Timestamp: 16:41–20:10

• Banking Sector:

  • U.S. banks face unrealized losses but maintain strong credit growth and low delinquencies.
  • Regulatory relief (Basel Committee, U.S. “going rogue” on Basel rules) could unlock additional liquidity.
  • “GSIB ETF is up ... 45% year over year. So banking sector is good. That matters because it's the bedrock of the economy.” — Rahm Maester (19:07)

• Liquidity Cautions:

  • Banks are holding liquidity to defend balance sheets post-SVB, constraining credit creation.
  • “Liquidity looks better than it is… banks are holding a lot of reserves.” — Austin Campbell (14:51)

5. Nvidia, Big Tech, and the “Buy Black Friday” Thesis

Timestamp: 20:10–23:41

• Earnings Season Takeaways:
  • Nvidia: Outstanding earnings, yet the stock fell due to over-crowded positioning. Semis and big tech had a broader correction.
  • “These are shockingly good [Nvidia's numbers] ... they've had a beat, beat, raise every quarter since ChatGPT.” — Rahm Maester (21:03)
  • “It's a buying opportunity… a high beta, crowded positioning unwind.” — Rahm Maester (21:03)

6. Stablecoins, Bank Policy, and Market Structure

Timestamp: 24:11–29:49

• Stablecoin-Enabled Dollar Demand:

  • Stablecoins bring demand for USD; large banks are not as threatened as once feared.

• Policy & Regulatory Shifts:

  • Discussion of historical restrictions (e.g., Reg Q) and banks’ current stance on banning interest for stablecoins.
  • “Banks may have dramatically overplayed their hand on the policy frontier... gloves came off and it was like naked self-interest with trying to ban yield on stable coins.” — Austin Campbell (24:37)

• Credit and Housing Market Dynamics:

  • Debate over 50-year mortgages: trade-offs between consumer value, duration risk, and housing affordability.
  • “We need to build more stuff if you want to solve the affordability problem.” — Austin Campbell (26:51)

7. MicroStrategy, DATs, and Market Structure

Timestamp: 30:04–46:20

• MicroStrategy (MSTR) and MSCI Index:

  • MSTR may be removed from indices, forcing massive passive outflows — a marker of passive index reflexivity.
  • Saylor insists MSTR is an operating company, not a fund.

• DATs (“Digital Asset Trusts” / Public Crypto Companies):

  • Most DATs are in trouble—“death spiral” in many cases; structure limits M&A and value unlocking.
  • “These are mostly in a death spiral. I think you should stay away ... vast majority of debts are altcoins and I don't think you've seen the bottom yet.” — Rahm Maester (34:09)
  • Expenses, illiquidity, and lack of experienced management keep most DATs at a discount to NAV.
  • Fundamental profitability and strong operational management will determine DAT “phoenixes” in the ashes.

8. Token Launches and U.S. Regulatory Progress: The Monad ICO

Timestamp: 47:05–53:05

• Coinbase’s Compliant Token Sale:

  • Coinbase’s launch of Monad’s ICO to U.S. retail marks a shift from offshore listings and opaque distributions.
  • "A year ago, this would have never happened... now it's just... public markets are now able to leverage public markets, you know, they say in a compliant way." — Chris Perkins (48:25)
  • "This is exactly the kind of thing the SEC should be finding a pathway for because it's way more fair to retail." — Austin Campbell (50:30)

• Market Reception:

  • Token traded around or above ICO price, moderate initial sell-off, then oversubscribed interest.
  • New venues like Coinbase might help level the field for U.S. retail, but it remains a tough market for new tokens.

9. Operation Choke (Point) Redux: Banking, Collateral, and Crypto Onboarding

Timestamp: 53:05–57:01

• Banks & Crypto Access:

  • JPMorgan allegedly shuttered Strike’s accounts, citing “fraudulent activities”; Morgan Stanley prioritizes risk-off with crypto collateral.
  • “If something is off, something is flagged, you fall off that conveyor belt and it's really hard to get back on.” — Chris Perkins (54:03)

• Systemic Knowledge Gaps:

  • Banks’ risk aversion partly due to lack of in-house crypto expertise—"the blind leading the blind."
  • "I've met ... zero risk managers who still work at the big banks who are genuinely qualified to manage crypto risk." — Austin Campbell (55:17)
  • Government regulators can’t own digital assets—like asking regulators to manage traffic but never drive.

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• "QT is coming to an end December 1st." — Chris Perkins (01:46)
• "Retail comes, retail goes. Fed's in the driver's seat." — Chris Perkins (06:54)
• “A strategy that's long, top three and short the rest probably does well on average.” — Rahm Maester (11:56)
• "GSIB ETF is up ... 45% year over year. So banking sector is good. That matters because it's the bedrock of the economy." — Rahm Maester (19:07)
• “Banks may have dramatically overplayed their hand on the policy frontier... gloves came off and it was like naked self-interest with trying to ban yield on stable coins.” — Austin Campbell (24:37)
• "These are mostly in a death spiral. I think you should stay away..." — Rahm Maester (34:09)
• "A year ago, this would have never happened... now ... public markets are now able to leverage public markets, you know, they say in a compliant way." — Chris Perkins (48:25)
• “I've met ... zero risk managers who still work at the big banks who are genuinely qualified to manage crypto risk.” — Austin Campbell (55:17)
• "... it's a little bit like we expect you to regulate like traffic and automobiles, but you're not allowed to drive and you can never have owned a car." — Austin Campbell (56:23)

Humorous & Memorable Moments

• Rahm cited the GSIB ETF outperforming Bitcoin as “funny given Satoshi’s intentions” (19:07).
• The group joked that “phoenixes are not guaranteed. Sometimes it’s just ashes…” when discussing failed DATs (35:38).
• Chris on mortgage etymology: “Mortgage comes from the word, the Latin word Mort, which means death. Right. So it's supposed to be the debt that stays with you your entire life.” (29:49)
• Final jab: “We had no advertisers because our consistent campaign of teasing XRP caused them to fire us. Nope, that’s also a joke.” — Austin Campbell (57:00)

Important Timestamps

• 01:46 — QT ending and liquidity setup
• 05:03 — Macro market bullish thesis
• 11:56 — Divergence: Bitcoin vs. Altcoins
• 19:07 — GSIB ETF, banking sector discussion
• 21:03 — Nvidia: Earnings and market reaction
• 34:09 — DATs and “death spiral” warning
• 48:25 — Coinbase’s Monad ICO
• 54:03 — Operation Choke: bank derisking crypto
• 56:23 — Regulators’ crypto knowledge gap analogy

Summary Takeaways

• Macro Tailwinds: Tighter liquidity is easing, market expects Fed cuts, institutional buying is methodically increasing.
• Crypto Divergence: Bitcoin retains institutional and international bid; altcoins remain exposed due to weak liquidity, poor market structure, and lack of futures.
• Stock Market Parallels: Strong earnings and government policy support markets; Nvidia and Meta viewed as "buy the dip" opportunities.
• DAT Caution: Most public crypto companies (DATs) are in structural decline; only the most efficient and profitable stand a chance after the “ashes.”
• Regulatory Progress: U.S. companies like Coinbase now finding compliant paths to retail token offerings—a critical evolution.
• Banking Risks: Big banks still lack sufficient crypto expertise, and “Operation Choke” style debanking persists.
• Underlying Message: The crypto space is maturing, but selectivity and risk management—both in protocols and public companies—are paramount in the current environment.

For more, visit unchainedcrypto.com. Happy Thanksgiving from the Bits + Bips crew!