Unchained Podcast – Ep. 945

Episode Title: DAT Stocks Are on Sale. Are They a Buy? Plus, Why Crypto Is Dead
Date: December 20, 2025
Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Steve Ehrlich (Unchained Executive Editor), Dougie DeLuca (Figment Capital)

Overview

In this wide-ranging episode, Laura Shin explores two hot topics in crypto:

1. DAT Stocks ("Digital Asset Treasury" companies): Steve Ehrlich explains why these crypto stockpile companies are trading at steep discounts, if they’re a value-buy, and what it means for investors.
2. "Crypto Is Dead": Dougie DeLuca, whose viral essay argues that the era of "crypto natives" driving innovation is over, discusses the industry's cultural shift, mass adoption, and the future role of crypto technology.

Both segments dig into the shifting foundations of the crypto sector—how market cycles, user demographics, and company strategies are evolving as blockchain matures.

Segment 1: DAT Stocks Are on Sale – Value Play or Value Trap?

[00:00–19:13] with Steve Ehrlich

What Are DATs?

• Definition: DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) companies accumulate large piles of crypto, mainly BTC and ETH, on their balance sheets for capital appreciation.
  • Example: MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor pioneered this approach in August 2020, sparking copycats throughout the industry ([01:27]).
  • The strategy: Raise funds, buy more crypto, create a shareholder value flywheel.

Key Valuation Concepts

• NAV (Net Asset Value)/MNAV (Market NAV Multiple):
  • NAV: Value of assets minus liabilities
  • MNAV multiple: Like a price-to-book ratio, compares the company’s market cap to its crypto holdings ([01:27]).
  • Historically, DATs traded at a premium (MNAV > 1); now nearly all trade below 1 (discount).

Quote:

“When...the air came out of the crypto balloon...these DATs ...strict almost universally and very dramatically reversed, to this point now where their MVAVs almost across the board are below 1. What that means is that investors now are valuing these companies less than even the value of their crypto holdings.”
— Steve Ehrlich [03:35]

Deep Discounts – How Big Are They?

• DATs currently trade significantly below the value of their crypto:
  • 21 Capital (Jack Maller’s group): 0.50 MNAV
  • Kindly MD (David Bailey): 0.53
  • Similar Scientific: 0.57
  • Pro Cap Financial (Anthony Pompliano): 0.7
  • Ether Machine: 0.13* (note: this figure is affected by pending share dilution)
  • Ethzilla: 0.56 ([05:25])
  • Ethzilla made headlines as the first DAT to sell crypto to buy back shares

Should DATs Trade at NAV?

• Expert consensus: Over time, MNAV should gravitate around 1.00 (plus/minus a few points), as these stocks are more like closed-end funds than ETFs, with less ability to quickly close price disconnects ([07:20]).
  • Productive assets (ETH) might justify a premium via staking/yield.
  • BTC is less productive; thus, less justification for premium.

Why Can’t Arbitrage Fix This Discount?

• Comparison to GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust):
  • GBTC had a persistent discount, but eventually ETF conversion let markets arbitrage away the gap.
  • DATs cannot do this due to no redemption mechanism and share structure ([09:32]).
  • Share buybacks are limited and can’t match the scale of dilution ([13:58]).

Quote:

“It’s like trying to shoot a BB gun at a coming freight train...any analogy or similarity between GBTC and these companies I think is unfounded.”
— Steve Ehrlich [11:48]

What Can/Are DATs Doing?

• Share Buybacks: Programs sound big but are small in effect.
  • e.g., “Sharply Gaming” announced $1.5bn buyback, but spent far less ([13:58]).
  • Ethzilla: $250mn authorized, $40mn used.
  • “If you see a big top-line number, that's not a requirement they spend it, and they certainly aren’t going to spend it all at once.” ([13:58])
• Strategic Patience: No fast fix; long-term conviction may work if you believe in crypto’s recovery.
  • M&A could offer exits at premiums; e.g., Vivek Ramaswamy’s Strive aiming to acquire Similar Scientific at a large premium ([16:04]).

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Company Specifics: Each DAT has unique risk/reward—delisting threats, imminent dilution (i.e., Ether Machine), and pending PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) unlocks can crush prices further.
• Do Your Homework: Understand share structures, pending supply shocks, and company health before acting ([16:58]).

Notable Quote:

“Every company’s a little bit different...if they want to try to buy one of these companies really understand the mechanics of the deal, so you understand...the hoops that will have to be jumped through in order to get that NAV back to 1.”
— Steve Ehrlich [18:18]

Segment 2: "Crypto Is Dead"—But the Tech Will Survive

[20:43–53:15] with Dougie DeLuca

What Does "Crypto Is Dead" Mean?

• Culture Shift: Crypto’s “insular” culture (Crypto Twitter, on-chain transactors, yield hunters) is shrinking.
  • Non-crypto-natives (mainstream investors, fintech, institutions) are taking over, and will drive use and adoption ([21:25]).
• Tech Survives, Old Guard Fades: "Crypto is dead" doesn’t mean the technology dies, but the crypto-native bubble and its go-to-market tactics are over.

Quote:

“...there are non-crypto native entities that are going to be essentially taking over the things that we thought we would win undisputedly. And it’s made people feel like the industry that we’ve known is kind of dying. Hence the name 'crypto is dead'...”
— Dougie DeLuca [21:25]

Who Are the "Crypto Natives"?

• Actively transact on-chain, participate in crypto-centric communities and incentive programs.
• Passive holders (e.g., BTC on Coinbase) aren’t considered "crypto natives" ([23:50]).

Why the Old User-Acquisition Approaches Are Failing

• Short-Sighted Incentive Schemes: Yield farming, airdrop hunting, ponzinomics aren’t sustainable.
  • "The product is the Ponzi...when you ask someone what happens after the scheme dries up, there's not really a good answer." ([24:57])
• Market Has Saturated With Risk-On Early Adopters: The "chronically online" risk chasers have mostly been onboarded. The next wave won’t play this game ([27:22]).

The New Mass Market: Middle Class Users

• Want exposure to crypto’s benefits (wealth, new products) without joining "crypto culture" or taking extreme risks.
• This “middle class” could be hundreds of millions globally if properly engaged ([38:34]).

How Crypto Companies Are Evolving

• New Go-to-Market Tactics:

  • Increasingly, teams use mainstream social media (TikTok, Instagram) rather than just targeting crypto Twitter ([30:02]).
  • Products must integrate crypto tech “under the hood,” emphasizing benefits over jargon.

• Best-positioned Companies:

  • Coinbase, Phantom, Stripe, Polymarket, Moonshot (e.g., Apple Pay onboarding to meme coins) ([33:22]).
  • Innovations that "meet users where they are," simplify onboarding, and don’t overtly market as "crypto."

Quote:

“I do think the big thing I’ve taken away from this ‘cycle’ is I’ve seen teams be able to actually put products in people’s hands in better ways than I've ever seen before in crypto.”
— Dougie DeLuca [34:23]

What Strategies Will Fail?

• Projects focused solely on unsustainable incentive programs: No path beyond the initial rush, no reason for users to stay once rewards dry up ([35:58]).
• Need for original products reaching new, non-crypto-native audiences.

Positioning for the Future:

• Don’t market as “crypto” or “Web3”—it’s baggage to most users ([32:01]).

  • Instead, highlight what crypto tech unlocks (settlement speed, cost, global access).
  • “You focus on the things the tech actually unlocks for people and why this is better for them...” ([32:01])

• Culture Worth Keeping: Self-custody, censorship resistance, global access, speculation—all valuable but shouldn’t gatekeep broader adoption. Users will float along the spectrum of need and comfort ([41:04]).

  • Example: Some will always choose self-custody, others will prefer ease and some protection.

The Future Application Layer:

• Products look and feel mainstream. Crypto is invisible in the user experience.
• “The second that people start using our technology without ever thinking about ‘I’m touching crypto or being on chain’ is...a huge win.” ([47:40])

Notable Quote:

“People didn’t build on cloud because they think cloud is like the coolest thing in the world...they used it because it fundamentally unlocked things that existing technologies couldn’t do for them.”
— Dougie DeLuca [47:46]

The End of the Four-Year Cycle?

• Crypto’s famous market timing model may finally be breaking, as the sector diversifies and economies run independently of BTC price ([51:22]).
  • Structural changes (mainstream adoption, companies earning outside of cycles) could shatter the old boom-bust ritual ([53:15]).

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On DAT Discounts:

  “Investors now are valuing these companies less than even the value of their crypto holdings.”
  — Steve Ehrlich [03:35]

• On Comparison to GBTC:

  “Any analogy or similarity between GBTC and these companies I think is unfounded.”
  — Steve Ehrlich [11:48]

• On the Shift Away from Crypto-Native Tactics:

  “I think the mistake a lot of builders have made is that the product is the Ponzi and that is it...there’s not really a good answer...after the scheme dries up.”
  — Dougie DeLuca [24:57]

• On Meeting the Mainstream:

  “The big thing I’ve taken away from this quote-unquote cycle is I’ve seen teams be able to actually put products in people’s hands in better ways than I've ever seen before in crypto.”
  — Dougie DeLuca [34:23]

• On the Future:

  “The second that people start using our technology without ever thinking about I’m touching crypto or being on Chain is also a huge win.”
  — Dougie DeLuca [47:40]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–19:13 — DAT Stock Discounts, Value or Trap? (Steve Ehrlich)
• 20:43–53:15 — “Crypto Is Dead,” Culture Shift, User Adoption, Industry Future (Dougie DeLuca)

Final Takeaways

• DATs carry deep discounts—potentially a value buy, but it’s complicated by structure, dilution, and lack of arbitrage. Patience (and diligence) required.
• The industry is undergoing a cultural and strategic shift: the "crypto native" phase is ending and mass user experience, not speculation, is the new frontier.
• Going forward, winning products will use crypto tech under the hood, prioritize usability, and downplay crypto branding. Companies that cling to old incentive gimmicks risk irrelevance.
• Crypto values and technology will persist, but embedded and obscured—much like the cloud today.