Unchained Podcast: "DEX in the City: Why Prediction Markets Could Spark a Huge Constitutional Fight"

Host: Kathryn (KK)
Guests: Jesse, V
Date: February 19, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the regulatory, legal, and social crossroads facing crypto, prediction markets, and decentralized finance (DeFi). Host Kathryn (KK), joined by Jesse and V, discuss the latest moves by U.S. regulators, highlight gender representation in crypto advisory spaces, analyze the federal-state constitutional clash over prediction markets, dissect the ongoing legal saga of Sam Bankman-Fried, and address the real-world ramifications of crypto-related crime. The episode closes on a positive note with a feel-good crypto contribution.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. CFTC’s Innovation Council Shake-Up

[03:33]

• The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rebranded its Technology Advisory Committee as the Innovation Council, adding 35 new members—mostly CEOs.
• Concerns:
  • KK questions the effectiveness of a CEO-led committee, contending policy experts or product leads might provide more value in regulatory discussions.
    • "CEOs occupy a very specific...strategic role...it should really be the policy people or the lawyers or the product leads kind of providing this direct feedback." — KK [04:15]
  • With only 3 out of 35 women, diversity and representation are glaring issues.
    • "I know that in 2026 we're not allowed to talk about representation anymore..." — KK [06:03]
  • V points out the disconnect between the "crypto is for everyone" narrative and actual representation:
    • "Some of the best people I know in crypto are strong, powerful women building in the space...I just know that we can do better." — V [06:35]
• Jesse notes a lack of DeFi representation and suspects the council is more symbolic than substantive.
  • "It feels like...more symbolic than actually substantive." — Jesse [10:58]

2. Federal vs. State Showdown over Prediction Markets

[13:13]

• CFTC Chair Mike Selig’s assertive stance: Selig’s WSJ op-ed signals a tough federal posture against U.S. states attempting to ban or regulate prediction markets (markets betting on outcomes of events), calling out Chris Christie's campaign against them.
  • "He released a statement going after ... Chris Christie ... We're simply not going to allow that to happen." — KK [13:13]
• V unpacks the looming constitutional fight:
  • "Where did states' rights go? ... That's a much larger constitutional federalism question...creating strange bedfellows." — V [15:55]_
• The question is whether prediction markets are gambling (state purview) or commodities (federal CFTC purview)—ultimately, destined for the Supreme Court.
  • "I think there's no doubt that this issue will eventually end up there ... maybe as soon as next year." — Jesse [19:10]

3. The Legal and Political Saga of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF)

[24:05]

• SBF has filed a Rule 33 motion from prison, seeking a retrial, alleging new evidence and prosecutorial pressure on witnesses.
  • "Federal judges do not grant new trials lightly. Like, this almost never happens." — Jesse [24:05]
• Pardons:
  • V notes there’s chatter about crypto-related pardons, but overall, SBF is a “universally unpopular” candidate in crypto circles.
  • KK reminds: Civil liability is separate; even a pardon wouldn’t free SBF from civil suits.
    • "Even if SBF were to be pardoned... he would still be on the hook civilly." — KK [28:03]
• Jesse warns against conflating overbroad crypto enforcement debates with clear-cut fraud:
  • "We have to be really careful not to confuse those two debates...Those are not the same conversations." — Jesse [32:15]
• KK's advice for healthier discourse:
  • "Get out of your crypto bubble, touch grass, and talk to the normies." — KK [34:16]

4. Crypto Crime’s Real-World Touchpoints

[36:09]

• The high-profile kidnapping of Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy, for Bitcoin ransom, shines a spotlight on crypto's use in crime but also on the traceability of crypto compared to fiat.
  • "These bitcoin payments would, of course, be traceable on chain..." — KK [36:09]
• V reports a disturbing rise in physical attacks for crypto theft (75% year-over-year increase), referencing both wrench (physical coercion) attacks and human trafficking rings powered by crypto.
  • "70 physical attacks on crypto holders...That's a 75% increase year over year." — V [36:09]
  • Human trafficking in Southeast Asia now uses crypto for fund flows; an estimated 220,000 people are currently forced to run scams.
• Discussion pivots to the limits of blaming technology and the need for privacy solutions:
  • "Individual vigilance just isn't enough because the risk is becoming systematic..." — V [39:55]
  • "If you have privacy technology on chain ... you can mitigate things like kidnappings, wrench attacks, individuals being targeted." — KK [42:43]_
• Jesse mentions ideas like time-delayed transactions (citing Revolut’s initiative) but warns against losing crypto's instant, self-custodied nature.
  • "...all of the benefits of crypto in the first place." — Jesse [45:11]

Notable Frustration on Crypto Crime Narratives

• V voices exhaustion over the constant "it's not as bad as fiat" defense:

  • "I am so exhausted of that argument...what is the point...if every single time there is some sort of criticism of crypto, we just say, well, it's not as bad as fiat...." — V [45:11]_

• Jesse responds that societal cost-benefit comparisons are the underlying intent:

  • "We know that there are risks and harm potentially, but we think the benefits outweigh it...that's the relevance of the comparison." — Jesse [47:10]

• KK highlights the reluctance to discuss crypto crime openly due to fear of regulatory blowback.

  • "...crypto doesn't like talking about crypto crime...we have been unfairly targeted and demonized as a bunch of criminals for years..." — KK [47:52]

5. Crypto Good News: Ripple’s Charitable Donation

[50:31]

• Ripple donated to fund a children's cancer center at Great Ormond Street Hospital, illustrating positive crypto impact and the importance of giving back to the broader community.

  • "Crypto, we need to support our community, but we also need to support the broader world and the broader community..." — KK [50:31]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gender Representation:
  "If you can see it, you can be it...I want her to internalize as a little girl that women should have a voice and should have a voice in important regulatory strategy." — KK [06:03]

• On Federal vs. State Power:
  "This is leading to a huge constitutional debate...is that where we really want prediction markets to be stuck?" — V [15:55]

• On SBF’s Bid for Retrial and Pardon:
  "The only thing I'll add is that...even if SBF were to be pardoned...he would still be on the hook civilly." — KK [28:03]

  "You weaponize the Democrats...it makes me furious that we still have to talk about this sociopath." — KK [28:41]

• On Crypto’s Real-World Crime Exposure:
  "We're beginning to realize that like, individual vigilance just isn't enough because the risk is becoming systematic and it's exploiting people." — V [40:55] "There are so many people getting physically attacked, having their money stolen, and we can't just be going on crypto podcasts and panels and saying, well, well, it's worse in fiat..." — V [45:11]

• On Industry Self-Reflection:
  "My big takeaway for this week...we are just further going into our holes...rather than engaging like we should to develop this tech." — V [34:16]

Important Segment Timestamps

• CFTC Innovation Council discussion — [03:33]
• Diversity criticism — [05:50–07:26]
• Federal vs. state lines on prediction markets — [13:13]
• Chair Selig’s jurisdiction push — [14:25]
• Legal breakdown of SBF’s retrial attempt — [24:05]
• Discussion on political pardons — [26:55]
• Real-world crypto crime: Guthrie kidnapping, wrench attacks — [36:09]
• Crypto’s traceability & privacy tech — [42:43]
• Ripple’s children’s hospital donation — [50:31]

Tone

Conversational with real frustration and personal investment; blending analytical insight with relatable anecdotes (from mom chats to cousin group texts). The language is frank, sometimes irreverent ("crypto bro perception," "touch grass"), but always rooted in deep industry and legal expertise.

Conclusion

This episode of DEX in the City on Unchained provides an unvarnished, high-level look at crypto regulation, gender dynamics, the politics of prediction markets, and the vulnerability of crypto users in the physical world. The hosts offer both skeptical and pragmatic takes while advocating for responsible industry self-examination and the pursuit of real solutions—without abandoning crypto’s core innovations or ignoring its challenges.