Podcast Summary: Unchained – “Gold to $12,000 or ‘Sell Gold Today’? – Bits + Bips”

Date: January 28, 2026
Host: Laura Shin (not present in this episode – guest episode: “Bits + Bips”)
Panelists:

• Austin Campbell (Host, ZK Group)
• Rahm Alawalia (Maester of Wealth, Lumina)
• Chris Perkins (formerly CoinFund)
• Charles Edwards (Founder & CIO, Capriole)

Episode Overview

This episode brings together leading voices in crypto and macroeconomic analysis for a rapid-fire conversation on the current global state: the unprecedented run in gold (above $5,100/oz), bitcoin’s underperformance, looming geopolitical risks (particularly China, Iran, and the US), the debate on the impact of quantum computing on bitcoin, and rotations in global risk assets. The hosts and guests riff on global “realpolitik,” shifting world orders, and whether gold or digital assets will come out on top in the era of heightened uncertainty.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Macro Turbulence and Geopolitics: “Ten Years Happening in Ten Weeks”

• Davos Recap & Global Realignment
  • Major global powers are renegotiating alliances. Trump’s floated tariffs, Germany’s regulatory drag, and Xi Jinping’s “purge” of military leaders all indicate a shift.
  • Rahm: “Sometimes we get ten years happening in ten weeks. Make that one week.” (03:02)
• Realpolitik as the New Norm
  • Traditional global alignments are breaking; countries are now acting in their own strict self-interest.
  • Chris: “We’ve really arrived at this realpolitik moment. Realpolitik is the norm now.” (00:02, reiterated at 05:38)

2. Gold’s Meteoric Rise, Dollar Dominance & Institutional Rotations

• Central Banks Favor Gold Over Bitcoin
  • Charles Edwards notes massive gold accumulation, especially by China, which has raised its gold reserves 10x in two years (10:00-12:15).
  • Charles: “We’re seeing massive repricing of metals. Basically, gold and everything else is just following—but gold because a lot of the central banks are just stacking a huge amount.”
• Is Gold Trustless? Quantum Threat to Bitcoin
  • Charles: “I think gold is trustless. Bitcoin isn’t anymore because of the quantum threat.” (00:10, 08:19)
• Dollarization and Stablecoins
  • Chris suggests the dollar’s reserve status is only deepening, especially via stablecoins, as in many countries “it’s certainly better than the local currency” (15:53).
  • Chris: “We’re at the very beginning of the era of dollarization… I think the US is very excited to export the dollar everywhere.”
• Gold as ‘Shiny Object’ – Time to Sell?
  • Rahm expresses skepticism about chasing gold after media hype and round numbers ($5,000/oz), suggesting a technical pullback may be imminent (19:01).
  • Rahm: “Whenever I see gold blasted on the front page … everyone’s already positioned around it. I would actually sell gold today from an intermediate basis.”

3. Bitcoin, Quantum, and the Generational Divide

• Bitcoin’s Valuation Capped by Quantum Uncertainty
  • Charles argues the perceived but credible risk from quantum computing breaking Bitcoin’s encryption is holding back price action, capping upside (08:19, 56:42).
  • Charles: “We’re now in a period where there’s a non-zero chance of quantum breaking Bitcoin’s encryption within the period of time it would take to upgrade the network.” (57:10)
• Institutional Holders, Generational Gaps, and Crypto’s Future
  • Discussion on whether boomer dominance at central banks and among major investors is delaying bitcoin’s uptake—while younger generations will drive adoption in future cycles (22:23-25:49).
  • Austin: “Would the reserve balances … still be massively pumping gold and at zero for bitcoin if there was genuine deep understanding at every single central bank about bitcoin? … That’s probably a function of age.”
  • Chris: “Well, it’s also a boomer versus a millennial/Gen Z story … all the wealth is accumulated amongst the boomers who’s making the decisions.”

4. Rotation in Risk Assets & Investment Ideas

• Underperformance of Crypto & High Beta Assets
  • Bitcoin and other “old guard” high-beta assets are lagging as risk comes off the table; there’s a shift to defensive assets like insurance stocks and banks (03:50, 26:37).
• Commodity Stocks and International Rotation
  • Rahm shares his personal positioning: overweighting international stocks, gold/copper miners, and insurance companies rather than just gold or crypto (27:12).
• Copper: The “Undervalued Commodity”?
  • Debate on whether copper provides more upside than gold if the AI and infrastructure buildout narrative continues, though asset correlations are strong (29:20-31:15).

5. Rates, Debt Dynamics & Risk Assets

• Debate: Are Rate Cuts Bullish or Bearish for Risk?
  • Austin takes a contrarian view: “I think rate cuts are bad for risk assets” because with so much outstanding short-dated debt, cutting rates reduces income and may not be inflationary (32:12).
• Long End vs. Short End & US Market Structures
  • Discussions on the US mortgage market, capital allocation, and how rate cuts may not translate to stimulus given current debt structures (33:10-35:04).
• Structural Shifts: Higher-for-Longer Regime?
  • Rahm argues post-1982 correlations are breaking down as supply chains are reoriented, driving persistent inflation (38:05).

6. China, Iran, and Geopolitical Flashpoints

• China’s Military Purge and Consolidation of Power
  • Xi Jinping’s removal of top military officers seen as both risk-reducing (no imminent Taiwan move) and risk-increasing (power more centralized = potential for miscalculation) (39:03-46:46).
  • Chris: “What you’ve seen is… the apparatus that was annihilated and wiped out by Xi Jinping, they were the warfighters.”
  • Rahm: “China went from one-party rule to one-man rule.”
• Iran: Rumors, Risk, and Resource Play
  • Trump’s stated willingness to respond to regime actions in Iran framed as largely resource-driven rather than idealistic. If Iran opens to the West, the global energy and strategic picture shifts dramatically (47:50-50:52).
  • Chris: “If he goes in [Iran], he’s not going to come out of there without oil.”
  • Charles: “Poly market’s saying there’s about a 50% chance US striking Iran in the next couple months.” (50:52)

7. Domestic US Politics and International Distractions

• Minnesota Unrest & Political Calculus
  • Domestic unrest may be shifting Trump’s incentives to create “distractions” via foreign policy (52:24-55:34).
  • Austin: “If you have a problem over here, you can create a distraction over there … Minnesota probably drives up the probability of something happening with Iran or Greenland to move the spotlight.”

8. Bitcoin, Quantum, and the Path Forward

• Is Quantum a Real or Perceived Threat?

  • Charles: “We’re now in the quantum event horizon, if you will.” (57:32)
    • Estimates: 50% chance of quantum breaking Bitcoin in 4-5 years, 20-30% in 3 years.
    • Urges the community to develop an action plan: “Once there’s a robust roadmap, that in itself will discount the risk factor by a significant amount.”
  • Chris: “It’s certainly an institutional adoption issue … probably not a bad thing if it gets addressed.”
  • Austin: “If enough people think the risk is real, it almost doesn’t matter whether it is or not— you’ve got to fix it.” (64:52)

• Market & Psychological Overhang

  • Quantum risk is seen as suppressing price and institutional allocation until resolved—opportunity for “repricing upwards” if clarity and consensus emerge (60:07-63:56).
  • Charles: “Whenever we do get traction on a roadmap… I think there’ll be a significant repricing upwards which would be an awesome opportunity as well when that comes.”

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• “Sometimes we get ten years happening in ten weeks. Make that one week.”
  — Rahm (03:01)

• “We’ve really arrived at this realpolitik moment. Realpolitik is the norm.”
  — Chris (00:02, referenced at 05:38)

• “I think gold is trustless. Bitcoin isn’t anymore because of the quantum threat.”
  — Charles (00:10, repeated at 08:19)

• “We’re at the very beginning of the era of dollarization… it’s hard to find a store of value. The dollar is debasing, for sure, but it’s certainly better than the local currency.”
  — Chris (15:53)

• “Whenever I see gold blasted on the front page of … Bloomberg… it’s already priced in. I would actually sell gold today from an intermediate basis.”
  — Rahm (19:01)

• “Bitcoin does look quite good here. But we’re just seeing this huge diversion and runaway, you know, gold just added like the whole bitcoin market cap one day.”
  — Charles (08:19)

• “With Powell getting replaced by May. Not sure that’s something the market’s really pricing right … if they’re wrong, could be a good thing for risk assets.”
  — Chris (31:15)

• “I think rate cuts are bad for risk assets… If you lower rates, you’re reducing income.”
  — Austin (32:12)

• “We’re now in a period where there’s a non-zero chance of quantum breaking Bitcoin’s encryption within the period of time it would take to upgrade the network.”
  — Charles (57:10)

• “It’s certainly an institutional adoption issue… and I think it’s slowing that accelerated adoption.”
  — Chris (62:45)

• “If enough people think the risk is real, it almost doesn’t matter whether it is or not — you’ve got to fix it.”
  — Austin (64:52)

Important Timestamps

• [03:01] – “Ten years happening in ten weeks”; Davos recap leads to realpolitik theme.
• [08:19] – Gold versus bitcoin: quantum risk.
• [12:15] – Gold accumulation by central banks, notably China.
• [19:01] – Technical analysis and timing gold (Rahm’s contrarian call).
• [25:40] – Bitcoin generational adoption/holders; crypto whale sales.
• [32:12] – Do rate cuts help or hurt risk assets?
• [39:03–46:46] – China’s military purge; implications for Taiwan, internal stability.
• [47:50–50:52] – Iran regime change, Trump’s resource focus, energy market impact.
• [57:10–60:07] – Quantum risk to bitcoin: probabilities, timelines, call for action plan.

Overall Tone and Takeaways

• Fast-paced, informed, and candid: Panelists are unafraid to cite their own positions and challenge conventional narratives.
• The theme of radical uncertainty pervades both the macro landscape and the world of digital assets.
• Gold is the macro “flight to safety,” but even its run may be topping near term.
• Crypto, especially bitcoin, should be obvious in a world of fractured trust, but is held back by technical uncertainty (quantum risk) and generational divides in understanding.
• Action Item: The panel agrees—institutional and market adoption of bitcoin hinges on public, credible solutions to quantum risk.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode is a nuanced, lively journey through global macro chaos and digital asset angst. The biggest takeaways:

• The world order is shifting fast, and both gold and the dollar are resurgent as safe havens—but only for now.
• Bitcoin, in theory, “should” be the obvious asset of the next era, but quantum risk and institutional hesitation are real hurdles.
• Geopolitical uncertainty—from China’s purge to Iran’s possible opening—will keep driving risk asset rotations and repricing.
• The technical overhang (quantum) is holding back the next frontier for crypto, but could create massive opportunity if solved.

Interested readers should review the above key quotes and timestamps to dive deeper into any segment.