Unchained Podcast: Bits + Bips – "How Maduro's Capture and a 'Pre-War World' Affects Bitcoin"

Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Laura Shin (Bits + Bips guest host Austin Campbell)
Guests: Rahm Aliwali, Chris Perkins, Peter Cher

Main Theme

This episode dives into the intersection of global geopolitics, particularly the recent US raid that ousted Venezuelan President Maduro, and its ripple effects across traditional and crypto markets—chiefly Bitcoin. The panel analyzes how these events are recasting the perceptions of US power, accelerating the adoption of crypto assets, and signaling a shift to a more transactional, pre-war global order where production, energy, and security are newly foregrounded. The conversation seamlessly traverses implications on markets, energy prices and scarcity, the prospects for US dollar stablecoin adoption in Latin America, and the reordering of geopolitical alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bitcoin’s Sudden Rally and Geopolitical Shockwaves

• [01:39 – 07:56]

  • Rahm Aliwali observes Bitcoin's surge to over $94,000, attributing it to the dramatic US action in Venezuela and the infectious optimism ("animal spirits") this stoked across risk assets.

  • The news cycle around OpenAI's financing, particularly SoftBank's $40B potential investment, is cited as fuelling a broader appetite for high-beta assets, including Bitcoin and AI stocks.

  • The flexibility and always-on nature of crypto markets (“crypto is awake, traditional markets are asleep”) means these assets react instantly to geopolitical events, unlike equity markets, which were closed during the Saturday raid.

    “It showed the fundamental strength of bitcoin because again, normally when you have a geopolitical action in low liquid markets, the markets tend to pull back… Now markets, we got real-time feedback.” – Austin Campbell [05:05]

2. Maduro Raid: Restoring Faith in US Power & Markets

• [03:43 – 07:25]

  • Chris Perkins frames the raid as a “seamless, incredible mission in US military history” that reasserts American global dominance.

  • The event is seen as a masterstroke benefitting Trump’s midterm prospects, repositioning America as an assertive, effective force—contrasting the Afghanistan withdrawal.

    “He wants his team to crush midterms... the timing and the action could not have been more perfect.” – Austin Campbell [07:25]

3. Crypto—Trump Nexus & Sanctions Evasion

• [05:40 – 07:25]

  • The group contends Bitcoin's performance acts as a polling mechanism for Trump’s popularity, reflecting market optimism over pro-crypto policies and expectations of softened sanctions.

  • Discussion that US might seize and repurpose some of Maduro/Venezuela’s crypto assets, potentially as a starter for a sovereign wealth fund, emphasizing the increasing entwinement of geopolitics and digital assets.

    “There’s going to be a lot of fights over the assets Maduro has… but crypto might be one of the easier ones.” – Peter Cher [06:56]

4. Venezuela Raid as Geopolitical Catalyst—Regional and Global Effects

• [08:56 – 14:57]

  • The Venezuelan operation is positioned as a precursor to a broader push against drug cartels in Mexico, with regional stability and US domestic political gain as likely aims.

  • The panel predicts increased US influence in Latin America, with military and economic stability as key levers.

  • Notable, the decline in Venezuela's oil production is cited as minimizing its immediate global energy impact, but the raid’s psychological and strategic weight is immense.

    “This is as much a polling on Trump as it is a price on an asset.” – Rahm Aliwali [12:50]

5. Changing Nature of Warfare and Market Implications

• [14:57 – 21:58]

  • The US raid is discussed as a model for future conflicts—surgical, intelligence-driven, fast, and minimally invasive compared to traditional “boots on the ground” interventions.

  • This shift stabilizes risk assets, with Bitcoin and mining stocks responding positively as major energy and hot war risks recede.

  • The evolving “Monroe Doctrine 2.0” is posited, with the US projecting a scalpel-like influence across its hemisphere.

    “Trump’s openly talking about bringing back the Monroe Doctrine and having the US serve as a scalpel to deal with these interests rather than a sledgehammer.” – Chris Perkins [15:58]

6. Macro Shift: Production for Security (“ProSec”) Replacing ESG

• [17:38 – 21:58]

  • Peter Cher introduces the concept of “production for security” as a successor to ESG: countries and corporations realigning supply chains, strategic industries, and investments closer to reliable allies, especially within the Americas.

  • North-South alliances (e.g., with Mexico, Argentina), rare earths & minerals, and a renewed industrial strategy are highlighted as core themes.

  • The US’s demonstration of capability in Venezuela is perceived as a deterrent to China and Russia, with implications for global stability and investment flows.

    “I keep coming back to this concept of production for security. I think it’s going to replace ESG.” – Peter Cher [28:33]

7. Europe – Vulnerabilities and Opportunities

• [24:16 – 32:16]

  • Europe is discussed as a relatively weak link: lacking decisive tech, reliant on adversaries for energy, slow to claim strategic assets (e.g., Russia's reserves), and at risk of being sidelined by US transactionalism.

  • Germany’s hasty sale of seized Bitcoin is contrasted with the US approach, which may build a “Bitcoin strategic reserve”.

    “Let’s remind ourselves of the way Germany treated bitcoin. I think they seized 50,000 bitcoin, they dumped it as soon as possible... If the US does lay claim to it, ... they’re not going to dump it.” – Austin Campbell [32:16]

8. The Future of Dollarization—Stablecoins and Venezuela’s Economic Next Steps

• [34:18 – 39:34]

  • With the US deeply engaged in Venezuela, the possibility of “dollarization” via stablecoins (especially Tether) is explored as both likely and geopolitically strategic.

  • Expanding stablecoin adoption is framed as a natural progression—and a potential new battleground in the digital currency arms race especially versus China.

    “You’re going to see wars that are fought over stablecoins, I’m sure of it.” – Austin Campbell [36:12]

9. China, Rare Earths, and the “Pre-War World”

• [37:45 – 44:23]

  • Risks discussed of China retaliating through curbs on rare earths and critical minerals, which could spark an urgent American buildout of alternative supply chains.

  • Cher references a growing “pre-war” global atmosphere—where urgency and willingness to sacrifice for national interests are being rekindled.

    “If he's right and we do move to this pre war environment, you get two things: A sense of urgency … and a willingness to sacrifice yourself for the greater good.” – Peter Cher [43:16]

10. Energy, Industrial Policy, and Regional Realignment

• [44:23 – 53:53]

  • Electrification, affordability, and the need for diversified, domestic, and allied energy sources (solar, nuclear, etc.) emerge as new political and investment focal points.

  • US sees a convergence—across party lines—around re-invigorating industry and energy independence, potentially indicating a period of strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment.

    “Electricity prices are going to be the single biggest election issue... Anything associated with electricity production, I love.” – Peter Cher [46:22]

11. Second-Order Effects: Cuba, Latin America, and Global Tensions

• [54:02 – 59:59]

  • The US action signals to other “satellite states” like Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, and beyond that the era of US passivity is over; both allies and adversaries are recalibrating.

  • Panelists acknowledge risk: coups have failed before (Bay of Pigs), and global politics are volatile—but for now, the dramatic power projection is stabilizing.

    “This Maduro raid is the anti Bay of Pigs… how incredible the capabilities and power projection we have, pulled away from the pack and everyone's taking notice.” – Austin Campbell [58:37]

Notable Quotes and Timestamps

• “Bitcoin today is as much a polling on Trump as it is a price on an asset.” – Rahm Aliwali [00:03, 12:50]
• “Crypto is awake, traditional markets are asleep.” – Austin Campbell [04:42]
• "This is as much about Trump recapturing the narrative as anything..." – Austin Campbell [07:25]
• "Production for security is going to replace ESG." – Peter Cher [28:33]
• “I think we’re in a pre-war world… there’s urgency, but maybe more importantly, a willingness to sacrifice for the greater good.” – Peter Cher [43:16]
• "You’re going to see wars that are fought over stablecoins, I’m sure of it." – Austin Campbell [36:12]
• “The Maduro raid is the anti Bay of Pigs...the US is playing the game at a different level.” – Austin Campbell [58:37]
• "Electricity prices are going to be the single biggest election issue" – Peter Cher [46:22]

Important Timestamps

• 01:39 — Market open, Bitcoin price surge, initial market reactions post-Maduro raid
• 03:39-07:25 — Deep dive on geopolitics, Trump's impact and how markets factor in political sentiment
• 14:57-21:58 — New forms of warfare; implications for macro stability and energy prices
• 24:16-32:16 — Discussion of Europe and global supply chains; “production for security” theme emerges
• 34:18-39:34 — Stablecoin adoption in Latin America; rise of US Dollar digital assets
• 43:16-46:22 — “Pre-war world”, rare earths, and the coming sacrifice for national interest
• 51:07-53:53 — Data centers, AI, demographic and regulatory friction in the US
• 54:02-59:59 — Cuba, Latin America, and global recalibrations post-raid; final reflections

Memorable Moments

• Panelists repeatedly return to the theme that Bitcoin/crypto prices are now intertwined with prevailing macro-political narratives, especially Trump’s fortunes.
• The surgical precision of the Venezuela raid contrasted sharply with past US interventions—a demonstration of new, tech-driven military doctrine.
• The “production for security” framework cuts across not only crypto and energy policy, but geopolitical realignments, offering listeners a novel investment and strategic lens.
• Subtle but critical, the group notes that regulatory and environmental priorities are being weighed anew as energy independence and abundance become bipartisan concerns.

Closing

This episode maps a clear line from military action in Venezuela to realignments in capital markets and supply chains worldwide. It argues convincingly that crypto assets like Bitcoin increasingly react as proxies for US political and military strength, while highlighting the accelerating adoption of digital dollars (stablecoins) in the Global South. The new “pro-sec” paradigm—production to ensure security—replaces the ESG focus of recent years, marking an inflection point in both geopolitics and investment strategy.

This summary captures the original tone: analytical, speculative, occasionally irreverent—yet always focused on the high-level interplay between macro forces and crypto ecosystems.