The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998 - Unchained

Unchained – The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions (Ep. 998)

Hosts: Haseeb (Dragonfly), Tom, Robert (Superstate), Tarun (Gauntlet)
Date: January 8, 2026
Summary By: Podcast Summarizer AI

Episode Overview

This episode serves as an in-depth year-in-review and forward-looking roundtable. The Chopping Block team breaks down the biggest winners, losers, surprises, flops, memes, pivots, and comebacks in crypto throughout 2025, and then make bold (and sometimes tongue-in-cheek) predictions for the state of crypto in 2026. The episode’s tone is witty, irreverent, and unsparing—maintaining The Chopping Block’s unique brand of crypto-insider realism and banter.

I. Opening Banter & Show Set-up

[00:24–01:50]
Playful intro about profanity (Robert’s anti-profanity stance), recurring Chopping Block format, and the show’s candid, inside-baseball approach to crypto.

II. 2025 In Review: Chopping Block Awards

A. Biggest Winner

[02:48–07:30]

Robert: Equity-based crypto companies flourished thanks to regulatory clarity and increased institutional interest. “This is M&A season … companies consolidating and forming alliances … totally different landscape this year in 2026.” (03:15)
Tom: Prediction markets (especially Polymarket) went from fringe to mainstream, with media coverage and cultural references (even a South Park episode!). “I just can’t remember the last time something got this big so quickly.” (04:24)
Haseeb: Tie between Tom Lee (for ETH evangelism), Bitmine, and Donald Trump, who leveraged crypto for both financial and political gains, including launching a meme coin and pushing for a US bitcoin reserve.
Tarun: On-chain crypto derivatives platforms and prediction markets, particularly seeing user migration from centralized to decentralized—feeling “like a winning day” for DeFi veterans. (05:54)

B. Biggest Loser

[07:39–13:23]

Tom: Altcoins—poor performance, failed new launches, regulatory delays, and token/equity misalignment in acquisitions. “Altcoins have really gotten left in the dust in various ways.” (08:29)
Haseeb: Gary Gensler’s SEC legacy—entirely overturned, “just a gravestone… Not even a gravestone. Where Gary Gensler used to sit.” (08:48)
Tarun: Web3 as a thesis—total capitulation in NFTs, poor reputation among creators, and even past proponents (like Andreessen) moving away: “I’m willing to write the epitaph now.” (09:54)
Robert: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Initial excitement replaced by inaction and setbacks, with the US selling seized bitcoin instead of building reserves. “Incredible ambitions and hopes are at this point, quite wounded.” (11:44)

C. Biggest Surprise

[13:23–21:19]

Tarun: Zcash’s comeback—growing shielded address use, privacy narrative gaining ground, and nostalgia for Zcash’s early years: “Pushing privacy is actually like a good meme compared to a meme coin.” (13:49)
Robert: Circle’s IPO—briefly flipping Coinbase's market cap, stablecoins as an investment narrative, massive run-up, then cooldown. “That is a shocking run for a public company in a short amount of time.” (16:12)
Tom: Tempo’s formation—a real Fortune 500 consortium investing $500M in a new payments system, with Paradigm’s surprise involvement. “Seems like it is much more real this time.” (17:54)
Haseeb: Ethereum’s recovery via leadership overhaul, revitalizing sentiment and momentum: “We thought that the sentiment was just unrecoverable … a tremendous recovery of Ethereum.” (19:42)

D. Best New Mechanism

[22:35–27:56]

Tom: “Tasteful ICO 2.0” or “buyer sales”—modernized, capped, and aligned token sales. “It just feels like, okay, this actually kind of solves all these miscellaneous problems.” (22:35)
Robert: DAT structure (Derivative Asset Token): “Highest absolute value of impact … amplifying volatility, totally reinvented the game.” (23:55)
Tarun: Prop AMMs (Proactive Market Makers) on Solana—a blend of passive and active liquidity, compressing spreads, showing that old ideas finally work in new contexts thanks to technical enhancements. (25:11)
Haseeb: Federal preemption—federal law enabling the nationwide operation of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket). (27:56)

E. Best Meme

[28:59–33:18]

Robert: Chopping Block’s own AI-generated meme: Hosts depicted working in a Chinese toy factory. “Best video content we have released as a podcast.” (29:07)
Haseeb: The “digital asset stockpile”—Trump’s executive order for a US crypto reserve, resulting in no action but a persistent meme. (30:05)
Tarun: Bybit hack memes—how a billion-dollar hack was flipped into good crisis comms and dark humor. “How do you get memes out of a billion dollar plus hack?” (30:45)
Tom: The “Fell For It Again Award” meme—expressing the perennial cycle of crypto hype and disappointment. “It’s really just this template with really high skill, expression, and people have just gone really crazy building all sorts of very elaborate landscapes and portraits using the Fell For It Again award memes.” (32:16)

F. Best/Worst Pivot

[33:37–39:14]

Haseeb: Galaxy pivoting from crypto bank to AI data center conglomerate, becoming an AI infra play via Helios/CoreWeave. “Crypto business is tiny compared to this gigantic AI bet.” (33:41)
Tom: Ethereum (ETH) and Tom Lee’s narrative pivot—branding ETH as a “stablecoin layer” akin to ‘ChatGPT for crypto’. (34:30)
Robert: CoreWeave’s pivot from Ethereum GPU miner to $40B AI data center company. “A true historical pivot from crypto to AI.” (35:19)
Tarun: Lighter (formerly co-founder networking startup Lunch Club) takes a years-long journey to become a top crypto company—“In crypto, very few companies persist … I think that does sort of deserve a really good pivot story.” (36:31)

G. Biggest Flop

[39:30–45:22]

Tarun: October 10th liquidation mechanism failures—massive event exposed fragility of decentralized leverage/liquidations. “How brittle some of these things are…” (39:45)
Haseeb: AI agents—“under-delivered,” losing speculative and functional momentum: “The sentiment shift, also the fact these things have just really under delivered in terms of value.” (40:32)
Tom: Bear Chain—hottest new chain in ‘25, launch flop, “down only,” rapidly lost relevance. (41:42)
Robert: Bitcoin’s performance. Despite macro tailwinds, it underperformed expectations and lost narrative dominance. (42:46)
- “This was a year that should have been bitcoin’s year … On a relative basis, bitcoin was a flop.” (42:50)

H. Comeback Story

[45:23–48:20]

Haseeb: NEAR protocol—revived attention and use with intents and privacy tech. (45:29)
Tarun: Maple Finance—overcame hacks and counterparty failures for a TVL rebound: “That chart is very impressive and is a very real comeback.” (46:18)
Robert: Tether becomes not just resilient but “a respected asset and company” raising at $500B from US institutions. (47:01)
Tom: Bybit, after their hack, successfully regains business and user trust (“one of the largest exchanges is going to get hacked. But it’s actually going to be totally fine … a crazy story” (48:26))

I. Favorite Guest

[49:32–51:52]

Robert: Hester Peirce (SEC Commissioner), “leading the comeback of crypto in the US … a joy to have her on.” (49:32)
Tom/Haseeb/Tarun: Joe Weisenthal (Odd Lots): “It takes a professional podcaster to really be a great guest; so earnestly, like, not in crypto but just enough… he was game.” (50:55)
Consensus: Bringing in “competent skeptics” adds needed perspective, “maybe we can do more of that in 2026.” (51:52)

III. Predictions for 2026

Review of 2025 predictions—everyone had mixed/mostly poor accuracy except Tom (2/3 correct). Humorous self-deprecation about their predictive powers.

2026 Predictions

[56:46–62:01]
Tarun:

An AI-powered hack will cause $100M+ damage.
3% of AI sector funding will be in stablecoins.
Speculates private DeFi usage will (somehow) finally grow (“trickle down privacy economics”).

Haseeb:

Bitcoin goes to $150K by year end.
Big Tech (top-7) company will ship or announce a crypto wallet.
Equity perps will grow to 20% of DeFi perpetual volumes over 2026.

Tom:

For at least one equity, DeFi equity perp volume will match centralized spot volume at least one day in 2026.
At least three major “Dino Chain” foundation wind-downs.
Major scandal over insider trading in a non-sports prediction market.

Robert:

BTC and metals will hit all-time highs.
Industry M&A of at least $10B in 2026.
Market structure legislation passes (“Safe one. Lay-up.”)

IV. Final Thoughts & The Year Ahead

[64:13–67:47]

Tom: 2025 less harrowing than prior years, with waypoints now clear—a time of “fewer unknowns,” not super exciting, but stable.
Tarun: 2025 = substance-abuse party; 2026 is the year of “temperance” and crypto “straight edge.”
Robert: “I’m excited … institutions are coming in a big way … great tailwind, bullish environment, very good 2026.”
Haseeb: Recovery after “trauma” (e.g., Oct 10), functioning now with “a clean slate.” Accepts that bad vibes and exits were needed for renewal. Predicts 2026 will be “a fucking great year.”

Notable Quotes

“So much of the industry … there’s so much hope for what tokenization can do, but it’s really just been this year where altcoins have really gotten left in the dust.” – Tom, [07:39]
“The biggest winner … is the equity-based companies … [and] all of you here at home who get to go into 2026 with a fresh experience after a roller coaster of a ‘25.” – Robert, [03:56]
“I’m willing to write the epitaph [for Web3] now.” – Tarun, [09:54]
“Tether as a respected asset and company. This was their comeback year. They’re out there raising at a $500 billion valuation from U.S. institutions.” – Robert, [47:01]
“This year everyone was at the peak high ... then things kind of washed out ... and then everyone tried again. They’re like, ‘Okay, I need a new substance. It’s called DATs.’” – Tarun, [65:04]
“My feeling is that 2026 is going to be a fucking great year. So I’m feeling good.” – Haseeb, [67:22]

Timestamps for Core Segments

Biggest Winner/Loser: 02:48–13:23
Biggest Surprise: 13:23–21:19
Best Mechanism: 22:35–27:56
Best Meme: 28:59–33:18
Pivot/Flop/Comeback: 33:37–49:10
Favorite Guest: 49:32–51:52
2026 Predictions: 56:46–62:01
Final Thoughts: 64:13–67:47

Tone, Language & Takeaways

The episode is playful, often self-deprecating, and relentlessly unsentimental about the industry’s hype cycles, failed narratives, and moments of triumph.
Hosts are quick to call out their own bad predictions and tendency toward overhyped industry fads.
This is the go-to episode for anyone wanting to understand 2025 in crypto, what actually changed, what didn’t—and what some of the industry’s most plugged-in insiders expect for the year ahead.

Listen for:

Sharp banter and analysis of crypto's cyclical nature.
Nuanced takes on what “winning” and “losing” really meant amid a wild year.
A cavalcade of memes, insider jokes, and genuinely useful breakdowns for industry followers and casual observers alike.

Podcast Link: Unchained, Ep. 998 — The Chopping Block
(If you want a brisker recap, just jump to the timestamped breakdown above!)

Unchained – The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions (Ep. 998)

Hosts: Haseeb (Dragonfly), Tom, Robert (Superstate), Tarun (Gauntlet)
Date: January 8, 2026
Summary By: Podcast Summarizer AI

Episode Overview

I. Opening Banter & Show Set-up

[00:24–01:50]
Playful intro about profanity (Robert’s anti-profanity stance), recurring Chopping Block format, and the show’s candid, inside-baseball approach to crypto.

II. 2025 In Review: Chopping Block Awards

A. Biggest Winner

[02:48–07:30]

Robert: Equity-based crypto companies flourished thanks to regulatory clarity and increased institutional interest. “This is M&A season … companies consolidating and forming alliances … totally different landscape this year in 2026.” (03:15)
Tom: Prediction markets (especially Polymarket) went from fringe to mainstream, with media coverage and cultural references (even a South Park episode!). “I just can’t remember the last time something got this big so quickly.” (04:24)
Haseeb: Tie between Tom Lee (for ETH evangelism), Bitmine, and Donald Trump, who leveraged crypto for both financial and political gains, including launching a meme coin and pushing for a US bitcoin reserve.
Tarun: On-chain crypto derivatives platforms and prediction markets, particularly seeing user migration from centralized to decentralized—feeling “like a winning day” for DeFi veterans. (05:54)

B. Biggest Loser

[07:39–13:23]

Tom: Altcoins—poor performance, failed new launches, regulatory delays, and token/equity misalignment in acquisitions. “Altcoins have really gotten left in the dust in various ways.” (08:29)
Haseeb: Gary Gensler’s SEC legacy—entirely overturned, “just a gravestone… Not even a gravestone. Where Gary Gensler used to sit.” (08:48)
Tarun: Web3 as a thesis—total capitulation in NFTs, poor reputation among creators, and even past proponents (like Andreessen) moving away: “I’m willing to write the epitaph now.” (09:54)
Robert: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Initial excitement replaced by inaction and setbacks, with the US selling seized bitcoin instead of building reserves. “Incredible ambitions and hopes are at this point, quite wounded.” (11:44)

C. Biggest Surprise

[13:23–21:19]

Tarun: Zcash’s comeback—growing shielded address use, privacy narrative gaining ground, and nostalgia for Zcash’s early years: “Pushing privacy is actually like a good meme compared to a meme coin.” (13:49)
Robert: Circle’s IPO—briefly flipping Coinbase's market cap, stablecoins as an investment narrative, massive run-up, then cooldown. “That is a shocking run for a public company in a short amount of time.” (16:12)
Tom: Tempo’s formation—a real Fortune 500 consortium investing $500M in a new payments system, with Paradigm’s surprise involvement. “Seems like it is much more real this time.” (17:54)
Haseeb: Ethereum’s recovery via leadership overhaul, revitalizing sentiment and momentum: “We thought that the sentiment was just unrecoverable … a tremendous recovery of Ethereum.” (19:42)

D. Best New Mechanism

[22:35–27:56]

Tom: “Tasteful ICO 2.0” or “buyer sales”—modernized, capped, and aligned token sales. “It just feels like, okay, this actually kind of solves all these miscellaneous problems.” (22:35)
Robert: DAT structure (Derivative Asset Token): “Highest absolute value of impact … amplifying volatility, totally reinvented the game.” (23:55)
Tarun: Prop AMMs (Proactive Market Makers) on Solana—a blend of passive and active liquidity, compressing spreads, showing that old ideas finally work in new contexts thanks to technical enhancements. (25:11)
Haseeb: Federal preemption—federal law enabling the nationwide operation of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket). (27:56)

E. Best Meme

[28:59–33:18]

Robert: Chopping Block’s own AI-generated meme: Hosts depicted working in a Chinese toy factory. “Best video content we have released as a podcast.” (29:07)
Haseeb: The “digital asset stockpile”—Trump’s executive order for a US crypto reserve, resulting in no action but a persistent meme. (30:05)
Tarun: Bybit hack memes—how a billion-dollar hack was flipped into good crisis comms and dark humor. “How do you get memes out of a billion dollar plus hack?” (30:45)
Tom: The “Fell For It Again Award” meme—expressing the perennial cycle of crypto hype and disappointment. “It’s really just this template with really high skill, expression, and people have just gone really crazy building all sorts of very elaborate landscapes and portraits using the Fell For It Again award memes.” (32:16)

F. Best/Worst Pivot

[33:37–39:14]

Haseeb: Galaxy pivoting from crypto bank to AI data center conglomerate, becoming an AI infra play via Helios/CoreWeave. “Crypto business is tiny compared to this gigantic AI bet.” (33:41)
Tom: Ethereum (ETH) and Tom Lee’s narrative pivot—branding ETH as a “stablecoin layer” akin to ‘ChatGPT for crypto’. (34:30)
Robert: CoreWeave’s pivot from Ethereum GPU miner to $40B AI data center company. “A true historical pivot from crypto to AI.” (35:19)
Tarun: Lighter (formerly co-founder networking startup Lunch Club) takes a years-long journey to become a top crypto company—“In crypto, very few companies persist … I think that does sort of deserve a really good pivot story.” (36:31)

G. Biggest Flop

[39:30–45:22]

Tarun: October 10th liquidation mechanism failures—massive event exposed fragility of decentralized leverage/liquidations. “How brittle some of these things are…” (39:45)
Haseeb: AI agents—“under-delivered,” losing speculative and functional momentum: “The sentiment shift, also the fact these things have just really under delivered in terms of value.” (40:32)
Tom: Bear Chain—hottest new chain in ‘25, launch flop, “down only,” rapidly lost relevance. (41:42)
Robert: Bitcoin’s performance. Despite macro tailwinds, it underperformed expectations and lost narrative dominance. (42:46)
- “This was a year that should have been bitcoin’s year … On a relative basis, bitcoin was a flop.” (42:50)

H. Comeback Story

[45:23–48:20]

Haseeb: NEAR protocol—revived attention and use with intents and privacy tech. (45:29)
Tarun: Maple Finance—overcame hacks and counterparty failures for a TVL rebound: “That chart is very impressive and is a very real comeback.” (46:18)
Robert: Tether becomes not just resilient but “a respected asset and company” raising at $500B from US institutions. (47:01)
Tom: Bybit, after their hack, successfully regains business and user trust (“one of the largest exchanges is going to get hacked. But it’s actually going to be totally fine … a crazy story” (48:26))

I. Favorite Guest

[49:32–51:52]

Robert: Hester Peirce (SEC Commissioner), “leading the comeback of crypto in the US … a joy to have her on.” (49:32)
Tom/Haseeb/Tarun: Joe Weisenthal (Odd Lots): “It takes a professional podcaster to really be a great guest; so earnestly, like, not in crypto but just enough… he was game.” (50:55)
Consensus: Bringing in “competent skeptics” adds needed perspective, “maybe we can do more of that in 2026.” (51:52)

III. Predictions for 2026

Review of 2025 predictions—everyone had mixed/mostly poor accuracy except Tom (2/3 correct). Humorous self-deprecation about their predictive powers.

2026 Predictions

[56:46–62:01]
Tarun:

An AI-powered hack will cause $100M+ damage.
3% of AI sector funding will be in stablecoins.
Speculates private DeFi usage will (somehow) finally grow (“trickle down privacy economics”).

Haseeb:

Bitcoin goes to $150K by year end.
Big Tech (top-7) company will ship or announce a crypto wallet.
Equity perps will grow to 20% of DeFi perpetual volumes over 2026.

Tom:

For at least one equity, DeFi equity perp volume will match centralized spot volume at least one day in 2026.
At least three major “Dino Chain” foundation wind-downs.
Major scandal over insider trading in a non-sports prediction market.

Robert:

BTC and metals will hit all-time highs.
Industry M&A of at least $10B in 2026.
Market structure legislation passes (“Safe one. Lay-up.”)

IV. Final Thoughts & The Year Ahead

[64:13–67:47]

Tom: 2025 less harrowing than prior years, with waypoints now clear—a time of “fewer unknowns,” not super exciting, but stable.
Tarun: 2025 = substance-abuse party; 2026 is the year of “temperance” and crypto “straight edge.”
Robert: “I’m excited … institutions are coming in a big way … great tailwind, bullish environment, very good 2026.”
Haseeb: Recovery after “trauma” (e.g., Oct 10), functioning now with “a clean slate.” Accepts that bad vibes and exits were needed for renewal. Predicts 2026 will be “a fucking great year.”

Notable Quotes

“So much of the industry … there’s so much hope for what tokenization can do, but it’s really just been this year where altcoins have really gotten left in the dust.” – Tom, [07:39]
“The biggest winner … is the equity-based companies … [and] all of you here at home who get to go into 2026 with a fresh experience after a roller coaster of a ‘25.” – Robert, [03:56]
“I’m willing to write the epitaph [for Web3] now.” – Tarun, [09:54]
“Tether as a respected asset and company. This was their comeback year. They’re out there raising at a $500 billion valuation from U.S. institutions.” – Robert, [47:01]
“This year everyone was at the peak high ... then things kind of washed out ... and then everyone tried again. They’re like, ‘Okay, I need a new substance. It’s called DATs.’” – Tarun, [65:04]
“My feeling is that 2026 is going to be a fucking great year. So I’m feeling good.” – Haseeb, [67:22]

Timestamps for Core Segments

Biggest Winner/Loser: 02:48–13:23
Biggest Surprise: 13:23–21:19
Best Mechanism: 22:35–27:56
Best Meme: 28:59–33:18
Pivot/Flop/Comeback: 33:37–49:10
Favorite Guest: 49:32–51:52
2026 Predictions: 56:46–62:01
Final Thoughts: 64:13–67:47

Tone, Language & Takeaways

The episode is playful, often self-deprecating, and relentlessly unsentimental about the industry’s hype cycles, failed narratives, and moments of triumph.
Hosts are quick to call out their own bad predictions and tendency toward overhyped industry fads.
This is the go-to episode for anyone wanting to understand 2025 in crypto, what actually changed, what didn’t—and what some of the industry’s most plugged-in insiders expect for the year ahead.

Listen for:

Sharp banter and analysis of crypto's cyclical nature.
Nuanced takes on what “winning” and “losing” really meant amid a wild year.
A cavalcade of memes, insider jokes, and genuinely useful breakdowns for industry followers and casual observers alike.

Podcast Link: Unchained, Ep. 998 — The Chopping Block
(If you want a brisker recap, just jump to the timestamped breakdown above!)

The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions - Ep. 998

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Summary

Unchained – The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions (Ep. 998)

Episode Overview

I. Opening Banter & Show Set-up

II. 2025 In Review: Chopping Block Awards

A. Biggest Winner

B. Biggest Loser

C. Biggest Surprise

D. Best New Mechanism

E. Best Meme

F. Best/Worst Pivot

G. Biggest Flop

H. Comeback Story

I. Favorite Guest

III. Predictions for 2026

2026 Predictions

IV. Final Thoughts & The Year Ahead

Notable Quotes

Timestamps for Core Segments

Tone, Language & Takeaways

Summary

Unchained – The Chopping Block: 2025 Winners & Losers + 2026 Predictions (Ep. 998)

Episode Overview

I. Opening Banter & Show Set-up

II. 2025 In Review: Chopping Block Awards

A. Biggest Winner

B. Biggest Loser

C. Biggest Surprise

D. Best New Mechanism

E. Best Meme

F. Best/Worst Pivot

G. Biggest Flop

H. Comeback Story

I. Favorite Guest

III. Predictions for 2026

2026 Predictions

IV. Final Thoughts & The Year Ahead

Notable Quotes

Timestamps for Core Segments

Tone, Language & Takeaways