Unchained – The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes & Tom Lee; Hyperliquid vs Aster, DATs & ETH

Host: Laura Shin (absent—episode features Chopping Block regulars, with Steve as lead moderator)
Episode: 917
Date: October 4, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This Chopping Block episode delivers an insider’s roundtable on the hottest trends, controversies, and inflection points in the crypto and blockchain industry. The conversation centers on the explosive rise and evolution of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), the “perp DEX wars” between major decentralized perpetuals, Ethereum’s shifting narrative, the proliferation of stablecoin-only chains, and the culture and utility of prediction markets. Special guests include Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee (Bitmine), Tarun (Gauntlet), and Tom (from the Chopping Block crew). The tone is irreverent, punchy, and unfiltered, loaded with memes and big-picture insights.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shifting Vibes at Token2049

[02:27 - 03:05]

• Last year’s conference was defined by meme coins and wild parties; now, it’s “comfortably boring” and more institutional.
  • Tom: "Everyone wants to talk about stablecoins, everyone wants to talk about DATs. No offense, Tom [Lee]. It’s just a very different vibe than last year." (02:29)
  • Tom Lee: Praises productive meetings and “the right people” in attendance over last year’s party culture.

2. The Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Craze

[03:10 - 09:40]

What Are DATs?

• Digital Asset Treasuries = public company vehicles holding crypto, especially ETH.
• MicroStrategy (BTC) pioneered it; now Bitmine is the biggest ETH treasury (2.65mn ETH >2% supply).

Bitmine’s Success & Tom Lee’s Approach

• Steve: "Most people I talk to... you are the savior of Ethereum. How do you feel?" (04:06)
• Tom Lee: Demurs, says ETH was strong anyway, calls Bitmine’s rise “good timing” as stablecoins boosted demand.
• Bitmine focused on simple messaging (“ETH is in a super cycle”), institutional engagement (Cathie Wood/ARK invested early), and clear communication.

The Wall Street ‘CEO’ Effect

• Steve: "DATs allow this outsourced channel CMO [chief marketing officer] to speak a different language to Wall Street, which crypto has really been missing." (07:15)
• Tom Lee agrees that institutional vehicles like Bitmine attract new capital and shape bullish narratives.

DAT Overload & Problems of Scale

• 70+ ETH DATs now exist, but top two (Bitmine, MicroStrategy) have nearly all trading volume.
• Argued that most should consolidate or risk irrelevance; trading below NAV (net asset value) is a danger sign.
  • Tom Lee: "No ETF trades below NAV and so a DAT shouldn’t trade below that." (09:24)
• Why so many smallcoin DATs? Arthur quips: "Because the baker makes 5%. You don’t give a fuck." (10:07)

3. The Great Plasma & Stablecoin L1 Experiment

[13:00 - 19:41]

Plasma’s Massive Airdrop & Stablecoin Chains

• Plasma (Tether-backed L1 for USDT transfer) launches with huge farm incentives, but little to do on-chain.
• Plasma, CodeX, Tempo, and others trying to siphon stablecoin flows from Ethereum/Tron.
  • Arthur Hayes: "If you have a positive yield, then you'll do it... If they don't create value, they'll all come back. It's like all the other games you've played for a decade on all these tokens." (14:55)

Skepticism & Sustainability

• Tarun compares Plasma to Bear Chain: "Everything about new L1s is farming incentives, not real utility." (15:14)
• Users question how new L1s can beat entrenchment/network effects of Tron, Ethereum, or if the ‘stablecoin chain’ thesis is itself flawed.
  • Tom Lee: "Stablecoin is going to be a huge market... I can see a path to 4 trillion easily. But I don’t think you could fit it all on Ethereum—it makes sense that other chains are experimenting." (18:04)
• Observation: To win, a chain must originate new stablecoin flows, not just cannibalize.

4. The Perpetual DEX (Perp DEX) Wars: Hyperliquid, Aster & More

[20:02 - 29:05]

Competitive Landscape

• Hyperliquid was the dominant decentralized perp DEX; now faces fierce competition from Aster (affiliated with Binance) and others as major CEXs pick their horses.
  • Steve: "Kind of seems like now it’s not just a war. It’s a broader war that’s brought in other combatants." (20:41)
• Arthur Hayes made headlines for predicting Hyperliquid’s token would “126x,” then selling, citing huge upcoming token unlocks and rising competition.
  • Arthur Hayes: "When Hyperliquid was the dominant 60–70% market share, massive unlocks didn’t matter....Then I checked, competition’s closing in—not sticking around to get repriced in real time." (21:33)

Fee Wars & Market Evolution

• “Bullish unlocks” thesis debated—will tokens maintain value if competitors are launching with no/trivial fees?
  • Tarun: "Let’s see how lighter [a new no-fee DEX] does after their airdrop. The real question is how sticky no-fee trading will be." (24:33)
• Multiple panelists observe that market will expand to accommodate many winners; new users and regions (mobile-first Asia, etc.) may drive more explosive growth.
  • Tom: "If you go back to 2010, do you buy Microsoft, Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook? Turns out the answer is literally all of them." (27:04)
  • Arthur Hayes: "But they didn’t all offer the same exact product. The perpetual swap is the same in every platform... The market could get commoditized." (27:23)

What Comes After Perp DEXes?

• Arthur Hayes: “If I had to found an exchange again, I’d do fixed income, not perps...the next zero-to-one product will let DJs bet on crypto interest rates.” (28:23)
• Tom Lee: "Betting is what crypto is great at—hedging, factoring, betting on different ideas. That’s really going to be the big market." (29:27)

5. Prediction Markets & the Polymarket vs. Kalshi Rivalry

[29:59 - 39:48]

Market Drama

• Kalshi (regulated in the US) and Polymarket (decentralized/on-chain, popular in crypto) are fighting for dominance—not just in users/bets but also in cultural relevance.
  • Drama over South Park episode parody; spat on Twitter over who was really the episode’s focus.
• Differences explained:
  • Steve: "Kalshi is off-chain, regulated, originally fiat—they only recently allowed USDC. Poly is crypto-native, on Polygon." (33:40)
  • Kalshi leads in volumes (esp. sports), Polymarket more on political & real-world event markets.

Utility Beyond Speculation

• Tom Lee (Fun Strat) outlines institutional demand: "Polymarket was so critical in how markets understood this election... Goldman Sachs is now citing polymarket betting markets... We’ve used it at Fun Strat for a long time." (34:40–36:21)
• Prediction markets provide real-time, crowdsourced “market odds” for events like government shutdowns, Fed appointments, etc.

Social Network Effects

• Tarun: "Prediction markets are closer to social networks than trading." (36:49)
  • Insider trading on Taylor Swift’s engagement bet became international news—more about media spillover than profit.

The Inevitable “Token?” Question

• Steve: “It’s been reported there are warrants for a Polymarket token but nothing confirmed. Real impact is also flowing both ways—prediction markets are beginning to shape the real world, not just reflect it.” (38:07–39:42)

6. Privacy Coins & the Zcash Resurgence

[39:48 - 44:20]

What’s Driving the Hype?

• Zcash, an OG privacy coin with academic roots in ZK-proofs, suddenly surges with a Gen Z-driven social media revival.
  • Zcash’s market cap spikes ~60% in a day (~$2B), despite no major tech updates.
  • Monero (largest privacy coin) faces regulatory bans and was recently hit with a 51% attack.

Privacy’s Societal Role

• Tom Lee: "Privacy is important; even government agencies use zcash and Monero when they want to use payments. But not everyone cares. Young people are comfortable sharing info with companies over governments." (41:44)
  • He contends proof of humanity will become core in a world full of bots and AI.

Regulatory Attitudes

• Zcash’s selective privacy (opt-in) has made it more “acceptable” than Monero; Monero banned on many Asian and EU exchanges due to robust anonymization.
  • Arthur Hayes: "At a dinner six or seven years ago, someone from the FBI said Monero was the best for privacy—and that’s all I needed to hear." (43:44)
• Panelists agree privacy coins “work”—even governments exploit their features for sensitive transactions.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Arthur Hayes: “Good afternoon, motherfuckers.” (00:55)
• Steve on the CMO effect: "Every shitcoin needs a Tom Lee." (05:04)
• Tom Lee, on being labeled a meme online: "In the crypto world, retarded is a good thing. So I took it as a compliment... I’m eth-tarting." (12:46–12:55)
• Arthur Hayes, on Plasma: “If you have a positive yield, then you’ll do it. If they don’t create value, then they’ll all come back. It’s like all the other games you’ve played...” (14:55)
• Arthur Hayes, confessing about Hyperliquid: "I'm not gonna sit around and watch the market reprices forward in my face. I'm just gonna sell." (22:09)
• Tom on exchange wars: "I think the phenomenon is... it's like induced demand where they figured out this blueprint and now everyone's copying it... Everything's going purpose, and so the market is 100x from here." (23:28–23:54)
• Tom Lee on prediction markets as market indicators: "Prediction markets provide real-time insights because for a while David Zervos popped up [on Fed Chair bets]. To me, this is real-time information—it’s the wisdom of the crowd." (36:21)
• Tarun on prediction markets as media: "Fundamentally, prediction markets are closer to social networks than to trading." (36:49)
• Tom Lee on privacy coins: "If it’s good enough for government work, it’s probably good enough for other people." (42:47)

Important Timestamps

| Time | Topic/Segment | |------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:27 | Panel’s observation on Token2049’s new institutional, “boring” energy | | 03:10 | Introduction to DATs and Bitmine’s ETH holdings | | 05:04 | “Every shitcoin needs a Tom Lee” – meme CMO in crypto | | 06:22 | Bitmine’s institutional strategy, ETH supercycle message | | 09:40 | Debate: Problems with too many small DATs, trading below NAV | | 13:00 | Plasma stablecoin chain hype, farming-centric launches | | 14:55 | Arthur’s analogy: stablecoin farming as “games you’ve played for a decade” | | 20:02 | Perp DEX wars overview; Hyperliquid vs Aster, central exchanges’ growing DEX involvement | | 21:33 | Arthur’s Hyperliquid thesis change and the “sword of Damocles” unlock | | 23:28 | Copycat DEXs and market expansion—“everything carcinizes to crabs” (crab meme reference) | | 28:23 | Arthur’s future bet: fixed income will be the next big DeFi primitive | | 29:59 | Prediction markets section—Polymarket vs Kalshi, South Park drama | | 34:40 | Polymarket’s institutional uptake: Fun Strat, Goldman Sachs referencing odds | | 36:49 | Tarun: Prediction markets as social networks | | 39:48 | Zcash’s sudden revival, privacy coins’ enduring appeal |

Tone & Language

• Direct, unscripted, loaded with irreverence and meme references; the crew is blunt, humorous, and often self-deprecating.
• Crypto-native language: “shitcoin,” “bullish unlock,” “sword of Damocles,” “buy the crab,” “degens.”

Summary

This Chopping Block episode is a no-holds-barred, inside look at the state of crypto in late 2025. The panel dissects the consolidation and narrative-pushing effect of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs, especially as Bitmine helps frame Ethereum’s supercycle), skeptical takes on “stablecoin-only” chains, the intense competition among decentralized perpetual exchanges (and what might come next), and the role of prediction markets in both crypto and mainstream life. The group doesn’t hold back, poking fun at industry drama, meme culture, regulation, and government attitudes on privacy.

A must-listen for anyone wanting to understand the current crossroads of crypto innovation, narrative-building, and cultural memes—with just the right dose of skepticism and swagger.