Unchained – The Chopping Block: In Defense of Exponentials – Haseeb Reads His Viral Essay
Host: Laura Shin
Guest: Haseeb Qureshi (Dragonfly Capital)
Episode: 965
Date: November 29, 2025
Overview
In this special Thanksgiving holiday episode, Haseeb Qureshi of Dragonfly Capital reads his viral essay, "In Defense of Exponentials." Using personal experience and market history, Haseeb argues against the pervasive market cynicism and valuation skepticism plaguing crypto, and defends why public blockchains and smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana are still vastly undervalued. The episode is a rallying cry for reembracing the exponential growth narrative in crypto and recognizing its world-changing potential.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. A Cynical Market and Recent Launches
- Monad and New Chains Face Hostility, Not Applause [00:32]
- Haseeb reflects on how new blockchains were once met with indifference or excitement but now face "a chorus of hate," notably with the launch of Monad.
- Quote: "I've never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. ... Now new chains are born into a chorus of hate." [01:10]
- Haseeb reflects on how new blockchains were once met with indifference or excitement but now face "a chorus of hate," notably with the launch of Monad.
2. Shifting Sentiment: From Financial Nihilism to Financial Cynicism [01:32]
- Describes the pendulum swing on Crypto Twitter:
- Financial Nihilism (2024): "None of these assets matter, it's all memes, and everything is worthless."
- Financial Cynicism (2025): "Maybe some have value, but they're massively overvalued and due for a correction."
- Quote: "The zeitgeist now is what I'd call financial cynicism...these things are all maybe worth 1/5 to 1/10 what they're currently trading at." [02:15]
3. Problems with Traditional Valuation Models [03:25]
- Crypto analysts cling to metrics like price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, hoping to justify current valuations to Wall Street.
- Solana tries to embrace "Rev" (revenue), only for it to plummet; Hyperliquid is lauded for its exchange-like revenues, but Haseeb questions if that's the right lens for L1s.
- Quote: "If they wanted [exchange like profit margins], they could have bought Coinbase stock." [05:10]
- Solana tries to embrace "Rev" (revenue), only for it to plummet; Hyperliquid is lauded for its exchange-like revenues, but Haseeb questions if that's the right lens for L1s.
4. Greed and Blame in Bear Markets [06:04]
- Market participants look for scapegoats (VCs, Binance, "the farmers," etc.) during downturns.
- Haseeb argues: "Everyone is greedy...and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest." [06:45]
5. The Probabilistic Nature of Crypto Valuations [08:00]
- Markets price new L1s like they do biotech startups: on probabilities, not past revenue.
- Even a 1–5% chance of displacing Ethereum or Solana justifies high valuations, similar to drug candidates worth billions even with a 90% chance of failure.
- Quote: "A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions...That's how the math works." [08:42]
- Even a 1–5% chance of displacing Ethereum or Solana justifies high valuations, similar to drug candidates worth billions even with a 90% chance of failure.
6. Loss of Faith in the Exponential [10:25]
- Skeptics now doubt whether winning the L1 race would even matter—if all valuations are illusory, why compete?
- Haseeb pushes back: "If ETH is just a meme...then even if you win, you won't be worth $300 billion. The contest isn't worth winning..." [10:55]
7. Personal Perspective: The Costly Error of Underestimating Exponentials [13:10]
- Haseeb retells a story about Chinese E-Commerce VCs in the early 2000s, all fatally underestimating the market's eventual size.
- Those who held on became billionaires; even the true believers often sold too early.
- Quote: "Even among the believers, very few thought E-Commerce would become as big as it became. And those few...became billionaires from just holding on." [14:01]
- Those who held on became billionaires; even the true believers often sold too early.
8. The Crypto Exponential is Real—Because We’ve Lived It [15:00]
- Haseeb recounts direct experience:
- Early DeFi (MakerDAO, Compound, 1inch) was dismissed as "science projects," but on-chain volumes have soared to the tens of billions daily.
- Stablecoins, derided as scams, now are over $300 billion and Fed-regulated.
- Quote: "I believe in the exponential because I've lived it. I've seen it over and over again." [16:10]
9. Exponential Growth Outpaces Linear Thinking [17:28]
- Compares Amazon's 22-year journey to profitability to crypto's current trajectory.
- Detractors obsessed over P/E for Amazon missed the compounding; the same mistake is repeated in crypto.
- Quote: "When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it's going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger." [19:34]
- Detractors obsessed over P/E for Amazon missed the compounding; the same mistake is repeated in crypto.
10. Wall Street’s Linear Mindset vs. Silicon Valley’s Exponential DNA [20:25]
- Crypto's intellectual center has shifted toward Wall Street, which is "raised on linearity," resulting in missed paradigm shifts.
- But exponential trends are bumpy—especially when money is involved and is subject to government intervention.
- Quote: "Crypto strikes at the heart of the state: money. And so it's more unnerving to governments than E-commerce ever was." [21:43]
- But exponential trends are bumpy—especially when money is involved and is subject to government intervention.
11. Open Always Wins [23:01]
- Crypto will transform all financial assets into interoperable, open protocols—like PDFs for money.
- Incumbents and governments will resist but lose out to efficiency, just as with the internet.
- Quote: "Crypto turns financial assets into file formats...makes it possible for everything to talk to everything...Open always wins." [23:20]
- Incumbents and governments will resist but lose out to efficiency, just as with the internet.
12. The Call to Believe Long-Term [25:15]
- Applying PE ratios to smart contract chains is "giving up on the exponential."
- The "Revenue Meta" surrenders to linear, not exponential, expectations.
- Haseeb urges listeners to zoom out and be humble; the biggest winners are those who outlast the doubters.
- Quote: "I'm arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer. I'm arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you've been a part of in your life." [25:41]
Most Notable Quotes & Moments
-
Haseeb Qureshi [01:10]:
"I've never seen so much hate about a blockchain that just launched. ... Now new chains are born into a chorus of hate."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [06:45]:
"Everyone is greedy...and you are greedy too. But it doesn't matter because no functioning market has ever required anyone to act against their self-interest."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [08:42]:
"A drug that has less than a 10% chance of curing Alzheimer's is priced by the market as worth billions...That's how the math works."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [14:01]:
"Even among the believers, very few thought E-Commerce would become as big as it became. And those few...became billionaires from just holding on."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [19:34]:
"When it comes to truly exponential technologies, no matter how big you think it's going to get, it just keeps getting even bigger."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [23:20]:
"Crypto turns financial assets into file formats...makes it possible for everything to talk to everything...Open always wins."
-
Haseeb Qureshi [25:41]:
"I'm arguing to be a believer. Not just a believer, but a long-term believer. I'm arguing that this exponential will be bigger than anything else you've been a part of in your life."
Key Timestamps (MM:SS)
- 00:32: Monad launch sparks a wave of hostility
- 01:32: From financial nihilism to financial cynicism
- 02:15: Market focus on overvaluation and fear of Wall Street wake-up
- 05:10: Solana’s failed embrace of "Rev" metric
- 06:45: On universal greed in crypto markets
- 08:00: Biotech analogy for L1 chain valuations
- 10:25: Market's apathy towards winning the L1 contest
- 13:10: Lessons from Chinese E-Commerce VC errors
- 16:10: Lived experience of crypto exponential growth
- 19:34: Amazon’s exponential journey as a parallel
- 21:43: Crypto’s threat to state control over money
- 23:20: The inevitability of open financial systems
- 25:41: Final call to believe in exponentials
Conclusion
In a deeply personal and historical essay-turned-podcast, Haseeb Qureshi urges the crypto community to rediscover faith in exponential growth. He decries the market's slide into linear thinking, skepticism, and short-termism. Drawing parallels with e-commerce, biotech, and Amazon’s long, bumpy rise, he champions the view that blockchains and smart contract platforms hold enormous, still-underappreciated value. This episode will resonate with anyone questioning whether the most disruptive days of crypto are over—the message is clear: the exponential is alive, and the biggest wins remain ahead for those who believe and hold.