Haseeb (12:27)
Yeah, I mean, some of the actual specifics of the policy clearly are being negotiated in real time. There's now a particular potential exemption for car parts as opposed to fully finished cars. So there's clearly a lot of this stuff that the Trump team didn't really understand. The nature of a lot of this trade in finished goods versus unfinished goods. Right now in Polymarket, there's a market on which countries will agree to do a trade deal first. And right now what you can see is that UK is leading, then Argentina, then Vietnam, then India, then Japan, then Korea, then eu, then Israel. And so there is an ordering and there's some sense that whoever comes first will probably get a better deal. Now is this true? Is this just perceived? It's hard to tell. Obviously there's going to be a lot of pandemonium in 50 trade deals being executed simultaneously within a 90 day period. Normally trade deals are incredibly complex. They involve lots and lots and lots of minutiae in actually how to implement these trade deals, if you remember things like TPP and usmca, they take many, many months and they're extremely Byzantine agreements. So the idea that we're going to have this real agreement, maybe we'll have a term sheet or something, or just a kind of spiritual. Yeah, this is roughly what we're going to do. And then we're going to go back to the way things were before this deal. As we hammer out the details, that's very likely all we're going to be able to get in 90 days at best. And right now, again, the way Trump is talking is that if at the end of this period, we don't get these deals, that tariffs actually go back to the high level that were announced during Liberation Day, which basically, of course, means, okay, we're back to Armageddon mode. And it also means that producers and exporters do not have any confidence about where tariffs are going to be in 90 days, which is another just real kind of Armageddon level error on behalf of the Trump administration is that you can see from all the recent reports that are coming out, producers are frozen right now. They're just basically sitting and waiting. They're not making any investments because they just don't know what's going to happen. So that's going to be a big drag on the economy. Now, all this being said, the real economy is clearly going to suffer because of this. Financial assets, it's less clear that we have seen capital flight taking place from the US Capital flight, meaning that it's not just that the stock market is weakening, but also Treasuries are weakening and the dollar is weakening. All three of those are happening at the same time, which generally means money is moving out of the country. That's a really bad thing. That generally doesn't happen in the U.S. usually in the U.S. what happens is that stock market weakens, but Treasuries are strong and that ends up being the flight to safety asset. So this does not portend well for financial assets generally. It may well mean that the Fed has to step in, and the Fed may have to step in sooner than later, even if inflation gets elevated because of tariffs. And to me right now this seems like the most bullish story for crypto assets is that basically this is the dynamic is that the Fed is forced to step in and to lower rates or to even do QE to basically protect the dollar and protect the bond market, regardless of what's happening with financial assets. And so financial assets may end up getting buoyed from all this additional liquidity, regardless of the state of the. Of the real economy. Lest we become a macro podcast, let's go ahead and switch gears and talk about what's going on in Cryptoland. So, first story is about this token called Mantra. The ticker for Mantra is Ohm Om. So this is not Olympus Dao, this is Ohm. So Ohm originally was another team from 2020 that had a Binance listing and a ticker. A new team took it over and rebranded it to Mantra, which is some kind of RWA chain. So it's apparently originated from the Middle East. It has a lot of Middle Eastern money associated with it, as well as some RWA deals from some Dubai families or something or other. So it's all very opaque. So this token ran up like crazy over the last year to the point where it basically became a top 25 asset. Now, despite being a top 25 asset, basically nobody, I would imagine, none of the four of us knew what Mantra was or what they were doing or what they were doing in the top 25. So it was a very kind of weird, suspicious team company project, given how few people in crypto were familiar with them, how much the token had run up. And many people believed that this was because of the fact that it had extremely low liquidity, so that the team was basically misrepresenting how much float was actually out there and how much of the token was actually trading hands. It was claimed that there were billions of dollars of this token circulating, but many people have reported that actually it's less than 1% of the total supply of this token that is, in fact circulating. So a lot of this was. I saw a lot of this promulgated by this guy Mosi on Twitter. I think Ivana Charmer is his. Is his handle who's basically going around town.