Podcast Summary: Unchained – The Chopping Block: Perps, Privacy & Prediction

Episode 921 | October 11, 2025
Host: Laura Shin (note: segment is the Chopping Block with Aseeb, Tom, Tarun, and Robert)
Main Theme: Exploring the latest developments and debates in crypto – from the meteoric rise of Polymarket, privacy’s resurgence (Zcash), intense activity in BNB/ASTR/Hyperliquid, and Galaxy’s new consumer finance play.

Overview

This episode dives deep into four defining crypto stories:

• Polymarket’s astonishing growth and its impact on crypto prediction markets
• The resurgence of privacy in crypto, especially Zcash’s sudden bull run
• Turmoil and explosive, short-lived memes in the BNB Chain ecosystem
• Galaxy’s new BlockFi-style retail finance product and lessons from the lending collapse era

The roundtable, composed of Aseeb (Dragonfly), Robert (Superstate), Tom, and Tarun (Gauntlet), brings an insider, candid tone, full of banter, sharp analysis, and firsthand war stories.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polymarket’s Meteoric Rise and the Future of Prediction Markets

[03:00]-[21:00]

• Polymarket’s $2b raise at $9b valuation

  • “One of the largest fundraisers in crypto history, and one of the fastest valuation run ups that we've seen.”
  • ICE (NYSE parent) led the round, making 27-year-old founder Shane the youngest self-made billionaire.
  • Shane’s journey: Dropped out of NYU, started Polymarket in 2020 against skepticism, initially unpolished but very driven.

• Early struggles:

  • “He was taking these deal meetings in a tank top … just an animal … has an energy level and sharpness extremely rare in founders.” (Aseeb [04:01])
  • Prediction markets were graveyards (Augur/Gnosis cited as failed attempts), but Shane kept building.

• Settlement with CFTC and rapid growth:

  • In 2022, Polymarket paid a fine, left the US market, but “kept grinding”. Only in 2023-24, on Polygon, with the upcoming US election, did usage and volume ramp up.

• Prediction markets’ long-term potential:

  • “Prediction markets are in the Ethereum white paper. Everybody in crypto has wanted prediction markets to work for a very, very long time. Shane was the one who made it work out of sheer determination.” (Aseeb [06:18])

• KOL Wars (Influencer-driven competition):

  • Kalshi and Polymarket racing to sign up KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders / influencers), especially for sports betting.
  • Mixed feelings on the ethics and utility of influencer marketing in crypto:
    • “I don't think it's very high integrity.” (Robert [11:23])
    • “If you're shilling a ticker, bad. Shilling a platform, fine.” (Robert [14:19])
  • Discussion about the nuanced lines between financial advice and general product marketing.

• Insider trading & prediction markets:

  • The group debates the ethics and potential real-world influence of prediction markets.
  • “Insider trading on markets like government shutdown or war outcomes improves public knowledge—futarchy in action.” (Robert [20:25])
  • But for trivially manipulable markets (e.g., “Will X go camping 30 days in the Sahara?”), risk of manipulation is high, but those markets remain small and self-correcting.

• Future of prediction markets:

  • Polymarket and Kalshi are thriving: Polymarket seen as more crypto-native, Kalshi leading in US sports volume.
  • “Prediction markets are incredible at disposable markets … All these events people want to speculate or hedge on … Prediction markets are going to eat sports gambling over time.” (Robert [25:19])

2. BNB Chain & Astro: Asia’s Perp-and-Meme Frenzy

[29:18]-[36:38]

• BNB Chain and Asteroid/Aster perps run up:

  • Massive volume spike (even overtaking Ethereum’s DEX volume), with a surge in trading and new meme coins—most of which collapsed within days (“pancaked”).
  • “People bridged from Solana, traded Chinese-name tickers, lost everything, and bridged out.” (Tom [32:19])
  • CZ’s non-endorsement tweet triggered a collapse: “Within 12 hours most BNB meme coins were down 90+ percent.”
  • Joke: “Trading based on Google Translate did not end well.” (Tarun [31:38])

• Aster’s delisting from Defi Llama:

  • Allegations of suspicious volume correlations with Binance, lack of transparency, questionable on/off-chain claims.
  • “Defi Llama just delisted Aster. … But it’s still got big TVL, can’t fake TVL.” (Aseeb [36:29])
  • Issues with incentivizing volume leading to likely wash trading.

• Themes:

  • The cyclical nature of BNB chain meme cycles; rare lessons learned.
  • Lament on “Chain Founder Dog Coin” narratives—seasonal stupidity.

3. Privacy Meta Returns: Zcash, Cypherpunks, and Narrative Momentum

[36:38]-[49:58]

• Zcash surges from ~$40 to $170+ in weeks:

  • “Zcash is insurance against Bitcoin,” (Naval, [cited at 37:57])
  • The Zushi wallet and Near Intents as post-hoc explanations, but panelists skeptical those alone explain the run.

• Reverence for Zcash’s ZK-proof innovation:

  • “Zcash is probably one of the reasons I ended up being full time in this industry.” (Tarun [39:55])
  • “They created the entire ZK ecosystem in crypto.”
  • Critiques that the recent surge is “flows, not fundamentals”—much like meme coin pumps.

• Intergenerational transfer:

  • “People who are not over 30 shilling Zcash is the most bullish thing for them that could ever happen because it’s kind of a boomer coin.” (Tarun [43:19])

• Market mechanics:

  • The pump is likely driven by both OGs with nostalgia and newcomers chasing narrative.
  • “Momentum is everything in crypto. … There's a bigger narrative that has momentum and momentum is everything.” (Aseeb [46:19])
  • Low liquidity and forgotten coins make for volatile reratings.

• Notable quote:

  • “This is like a meta that has philosophical justifications from the early days of crypto.” (Tarun [43:19])

4. Galaxy One & BlockFi Redux: Risk and Second Chances in Crypto Lending

[49:58]-[61:33]

• Galaxy One: Galaxy’s retail-focused finance app (offering 4%-8% APY):

  • Led by Zach Prince, previously founder of BlockFi, infamous for its collapse in the Three Arrows/FTX contagion.
  • “It is cinema to watch Zach Prince reboot BlockFi from within Galaxy…” (Robert [52:08])
  • 8% premium yield capped to accrediteds, 60-day redemption period; not fully transparent on how yields are generated.

• Panel skepticism:

  • History of opaque lending practices that led to cascade failures in last cycle.
  • “You suffer a problem when there's a lot of retail and they're pumping money and you have to put it somewhere to earn that return … the biggest borrower was Three Arrows … it was just a inverse waterfall of risk.” (Robert [53:34])
  • Question if being a public company adds enough transparency and risk controls.

• Contrast with new lending paradigms:

  • Rise of DeFi-native lending: “Much more of the lending facilities overall are on chain. … Centralized lending has not come back anywhere near the same size it was.” (Tarun [57:02])
  • Some optimism for risk management, cautious of a return to risky, opaque borrowing.
  • “Maybe we have better risk management controls in place ... but we'll see.” (Tom [60:37])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:01] Aseeb on Shane of Polymarket:
  “He was just an animal. He just has an energy level and a seeming just like sharpness that is extremely rare in founders.”

• [06:18] Aseeb on Polymarket:
  “Shane was the one who made [prediction markets] work just out of, out of sheer determination … an incredible testament to the company and what he's built.”

• [20:25] Robert on prediction markets:
  “And that's futarchy … The world might be better off if like we know for sure that the shutdown is going to last like two days and 12 hours more.”

• [25:19] Robert on sports and prediction markets:
  “Prediction markets are incredible at disposable markets … things that are happening and then they're done and then they go away and they may not be around for that long … prediction markets are going to eat sports gambling over time.”

• [43:19] Tarun on Zcash's resurgence:
  “There is this like feel good element to the old people in crypto … but there are some people who are not over 30 shilling zcash … it is kind of a boomer coin.”

• [46:19] Aseeb on crypto narratives:
  “Momentum is everything in crypto as we all know … price levels almost are self justifying … once something moves to a certain price level, it's like well I guess that's where it's supposed to be.”

• [52:08] Robert on Galaxy One/BlockFi comeback:
  “You love to see a second chance and a comeback story. It is cinema to watch Zach Prince reboot BlockFi from within Galaxy...”

Key Timestamps for Segments

| Segment | Start Time | End Time | Summary | |---------------------------------------|---------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Polymarket rise & Shane's backstory | 02:55 | 10:31 | Polymarket's founding, fundraising, KOL wars discussed | | Ethics of influencer marketing (KOL) | 10:31 | 16:15 | Acceptability of product vs. ticker shilling in crypto | | Insider trading & influence | 16:15 | 21:38 | Markets influencing outcomes, insider trading impacts | | Kalshi/Polymarket & sports betting | 23:00 | 28:46 | Kalshi’s sports focus; prediction markets' relation to sports betting | | BNB Chain meme boom/bust | 29:18 | 36:38 | Sudden rise and fall of BNB chain/meme coins and Aster issues | | Transparency & DeFi Llama/Aster | 34:07 | 36:38 | Defi Llama delisting Aster; privacy vs. data transparency | | Zcash & privacy resurgence | 36:38 | 49:58 | Zcash’s philosophical roots, sudden price action, privacy meta | | Galaxy One/BlockFi comeback | 49:58 | 61:33 | New consumer yield product, risk, DeFi vs CeFi lending, panel concerns |

Final Thoughts

This episode is a must-hear for anyone following the real-time evolution of crypto:

• It demystifies the stories behind some of the industry’s wildest moves (Polymarket, Zcash),
• Provides sharp, candid insider skepticism about where value and risk really lurk (lending, KOLs),
• And chronicles the never-ending cycles of new tech, new narratives, and rediscovered old coins.

As always, the panel serves up critical skepticism and a dose of crypto history, often with a sense of resigned amusement at the recurring themes (“will we ever learn?”).