Unchained Podcast Episode 969 Summary

Title: The Chopping Block: Token Launch Hype, L1 Wars & Prediction Market Breakouts
Host: Laura Shin
Panel: Steve the Head Hype Man, Tom the Defi Maven, Robert the Crypto Connoisseur, and guest Kevin Shitposter
Date: December 4, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode of The Chopping Block (hosted on Unchained by Laura Shin, though with Steve moderating), industry insiders debate three hot crypto topics:

• The drama and backlash surrounding the launch of the Monad L1 token
• Broader skepticism about new Layer 1 (L1) blockchains
• The rapid emergence and cultural acceptance of prediction markets.

Dialogue is sharp, humorous, and meta-aware—capturing the current cynicism saturating Crypto Twitter while also providing in-depth industry perspectives.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Monad Token Launch Backlash

[02:10 - 12:27]

Topic: Monad’s token launch was one of the most hyped—and most hated—of the year.

• Smooth execution, but tons of hate:

  • Kevin Shitposter describes two months of pre-launch anxiety and the relief of a seamless rollout (no hiccups, 100% uptime).
  • However, criticism was intense. As Kevin puts it:
    "The vast majority of crypto projects fail or die because nobody cares. So I guess as long as people care, it’s not good. Now it’s much better if people care and they love it. That’s preferred. But caring at all is definitely important." [03:05, Kevin Shitposter]

• Top Community Complaints:

  1. "This is just a way for VCs to dump on retail."
  2. "Why do we need another L1? Aren't infra problems already solved?"
  3. Common critique: projects launching too late, riding on VC money.

• Tokenomics Debate:

  • Discussion on whether tokens should unlock all at once for "real" price discovery vs. gradual vesting.
    • Steve: “If the VCs are going to dump, let them dump immediately, get it out of the way...let’s just find fair value.” [06:56]
    • Tom: “We are still in the low float meta...The correct answer is likely in the middle.” [09:19]

• Launch Mechanics:

  • Monad boasted 85,000 KYC’d participants via Coinbase (broad distribution), which the team claims is a fairer and healthier launch approach than traditional airdrops.

2. L1 Wars—Why Do We Need New Blockchains?

[17:20 - 29:41]

• Is there room for another L1?

  • Tom: “As a society, there’s always room for more experimentation and development of L1s, as long as you’re trying something different...If it’s just another copycat, there is no value at all and it shouldn’t exist.” [18:36]
  • Steve relays Arthur Hayes’ post (“Monads gonna rip,” then “fuck Monad, short to zero”), capturing how quickly the hype cycle can head south.

• Reaction Is a Sign of Significance:

  • Searing community anger means you matter:
    “People being mad is not very indicative of anything in particular except that you are very close to the bloodstream...Ethereum got the bitcoin people so angry...The second one was Solana.” [22:53, Steve]
  • Kevin: “People have their clans...anything that could challenge [their asset] is an enemy or a foe.” [21:05]

• Early Hype = Inevitable Disappointment:

  • The lesson: extreme pre-launch hype almost always leads to disappointment, regardless of actual delivery or value.

• Notable Meta Observations:

  • Steve: “You never get angry about something that’s just stupid.” [24:46]
  • Steve: “Week one of a launch of any chain is almost always a nothing burger.” [30:03]

3. Airdrop Strategies & Token Market Structures

[12:27 - 16:00]

• Airdrops Are Deemed Ineffective:
  • Robert: “Airdrops are kind of pointless anyways.” [00:29]
• Selling tokens via exchanges (ala Monad’s Coinbase sale) may be a better model, ensuring real cash for developers and more controlled distribution.

4. Crypto Twitter Cynicism & Attention Dynamics

[03:05 - 04:14], [25:25 - 29:44]

• Hype (positive or negative) is still valuable for project growth—even hate is “energy.”
  • Kevin: “…attention is a more absolute value. If someone hates you, it’s actually worth more than them not caring at all.” [25:35]
  • DonAlt: "Crypto Twitter is so mad at everything right now that Satoshi could launch bitcoin and everyone would hate it." [28:41]

5. AI & Smart Contract Security: The New Arms Race

[35:52 - 44:01]

• Yearn Hack & AI Vulnerabilities:
  • Discussion about recent DeFi hacks (Yearn, Balancer) and the scary progress of AI in identifying smart contract exploits.
  • Steve: “Anthropic announced…they’re testing whether their models can hack smart contracts…They are now at 55% efficacy.” [36:12]
  • Robert: “I actually take issue with this story…I would not call these [AI-found] exploits.” [39:05]
  • Tom: “If you trendline this one out in a year or two, software will be better at writing secure code and finding vulnerabilities than humans.” [40:22]
  • Kevin: “It does feel like it's almost the same kind of quantum risk people have talked about for bitcoin for a long time. AI is going to get good enough and it can hack smart contracts.” [42:03]

6. Macro Markets, Vanguard, and Bitcoin ETF Flows

[44:01 - 47:59]

• Crypto Underperformance Relative to Equities:

  • Steve: “Equities actually had a killer year and crypto has been flat and gold...what the fuck, what about us?” [46:50]
  • Robert: “Your friends are getting hilariously rich punting quantum meme stocks and you know you’re stuck flat in Bitcoin.” [47:05]

• ETF Impact:

  • Vanguard finally allows users to buy crypto ETFs, possibly squeezing MicroStrategy’s narrative as a Bitcoin proxy.

7. Prediction Markets: The Next Breakout Vertical

[48:01 - 61:38]

• Massive Growth, No Hate:

  • Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) are hot, well-funded, and, unusually, beloved by Crypto Twitter.
    • Steve: “Why do people feel so differently about prediction markets?...Maybe because there’s no tokens yet.” [48:09]
  • Tom: “It’s purely a skill-based game. If you’ve lost money on prediction markets, it’s your own fault.” [48:33]

• Onboarding Simplicity:

  • Kevin: “They're so easy to understand…it’s easier than sports betting…It’s just like, oh, if it wins, this is worth $1.” [49:55]

• Platform Strategies:

  • Kalshi’s on-chain integration with Solana (via RFQ model/Jupiter) and Robinhood’s plan to build its own CFTC-licensed prediction market indicate wider mainstreaming ahead.
  • Oligopoly predicted between Robinhood (internal), major platform partners (e.g., Coinbase with Poly/ Kalshi), and a graveyard for most prediction market startups lacking scale or distribution.

• The Real Future: Long Tail Betting

  • Tom: “The total number of events that people would want to speculate on or bet on is absurdly long...the long tail is much larger and I think someone new is going to crack that at some point.” [59:31]

Quotes & Notable Moments

"The vast majority of crypto projects fail or die because nobody cares."
— Kevin Shitposter [00:00, reinforced at 03:05]

"There are no simple solutions for why tokens keep fucking going down."
— Steve the Head Hype Man [12:27]

"Crypto Twitter is so mad at everything right now that Satoshi could launch bitcoin and everyone would hate it."
— DonAlt (as quoted by Kevin) [28:41]

"As long as you're trying something different...there's value. If it's just another copycat, there is no value at all and it shouldn't exist."
— Tom the Defi Maven [18:36]

"Attention is a more absolute value…if someone hates you, it's worth more than them not caring whatsoever."
— Kevin Shitposter [25:35]

"If you trendline this one out in a year to two…software will be better at writing secure code and finding vulnerabilities than humans. It's almost there."
— Tom the Defi Maven [40:22]

"Prediction markets are great. Right? It's just really hard to like them…They're so easy to understand…if it wins, it's worth $1."
— Kevin Shitposter [49:55]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Monad Launch & Criticism: 02:10 - 12:27
• Tokenomics & Price Discovery: 06:56, 09:19
• L1 Wars & Layer 1 Skepticism: 17:20 - 29:41
• Crypto Twitter Hate as a Signal: 25:25, 28:41
• AI in Security – DeFi Hacks & AI Risks: 35:52 - 44:01
• Macro Markets & Vanguard: 44:01 - 47:59
• Prediction Markets & Future: 48:01 - 61:38
• The Promise of Long Tail Prediction Markets: 59:31

Tone & Culture

• The panel uses sharp wit and irreverence, poking fun at both industry absurdities and their own projects.
• Cynicism about token launches is balanced with optimism about technical and societal progress.
• Side barbs about “quantum” and social media engagement reflect the zeitgeist of 2025 crypto culture.

How to Engage with Monad (Plug)

"Go to Twitter, search Monad. The pinned tweet has an explainer…Tweet anything about Monad, mention Monad in some hateful thing—you’ll definitely get more than four likes in 18 minutes. It will work, I promise."
— Kevin Shitposter [62:30]

In Closing

This episode offers a raw, insider look at the emotional dynamics and technical debates animating crypto:

• Why token launches are so fraught,
• How new L1s are perceived,
• The evolution of betting and prediction products,
• And how attention (even negative) is currency in itself.

It's a snapshot of both anxious and hopeful sentiment as the post-2021 crypto cycle matures, with strong commentary on what it takes for a new protocol to survive—and possibly thrive.