Unchained Podcast Summary

Episode: The Crypto Market Structure Has Changed and Rising Tides May No Longer Lift All Boats
Date: January 3, 2026
Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Jason Pagaladis (Head of Markets, Delphi Digital), Jordan Yeagley (DeFi Research Lead, Delphi Digital)

Overview

This episode explores how crypto market structure is evolving—moving away from the familiar “rising tide lifts all boats” paradigm of earlier cycles to one where selectivity, discipline, and discernment are increasingly necessary for outperformance. Laura Shin digs into Delphi Digital’s comprehensive reports and predictions for 2026, discussing market cycles, macro forces, liquidation events, asset selection, and the future of crypto applications with Jason Pagaladis and Jordan Yeagley.

1. Is the Four-Year Cycle Dead? (02:06–08:00)

• Main Argument: The traditional four-year crypto cycle, often attributed to bitcoin halvings, is oversimplified and largely a result of liquidity cycles and macroeconomic trends rather than having a deterministic effect.
  • Jason Pagaladis: “We don't necessarily believe in the four-year cycle. We kind of believe in something bigger than that... The halving cycle has just more coincidentally lined up with broader liquidity cycles, debt refinancing cycles, right. Every four years or so most central banks have to refinance their… debts.” (03:30)
• Key Insight: While halving events are psychologically powerful narratives, the decisive factors are broader liquidity trends and central bank actions.

2. Macro Conditions and Their Impact (06:04–20:54)

• Shift in Macro Forces: Quantitative tightening had countered the usual post-halving boost, meaning this cycle has been “muted.” Now, macro headwinds are subsiding, and certain liquidity conditions may turn more favorable for crypto.
  • Laura Shin: “...this particular halving cycle had this other effect where we were in a period of quantitative tightening...” (06:04)
• Gold as the Canary for Bitcoin: Gold and bitcoin both act as policy hedges against monetary debasement, but their markets and cycles diverged recently due to structural differences and ETF/institutional flows.
  • Jason Pagaladis: “We believe that bitcoin and gold are the clearest expressions of [the deficit] trade… The market structure around Bitcoin is entirely different than the market structure around gold. Right. And I think that accounts for why you see these more shorter-term fluctuations...” (08:55)
• 1010 Liquidations (12:14–16:21): A massive, unusual liquidation event hit the entire market, removing leverage and creating persistent apathy and selling, especially as participants tax-loss harvest into year end.

3. Emerging Market Structure: Dispersion & Stock-Picker’s Market (21:18–29:29)

• Selectivity Required: Passive allocation is no longer effective. Only select asset classes (memecoins at certain times, launchpads, privacy coins, etc.) saw outsized returns, while most others bled.
  • Jason Pagaladis: “...in prior cycles you could be pretty passively allocated and do very, very well. And I don't think that's, I mean it's clearly not the case anymore... you have to be very clear in what you want and know why you want to own it.” (25:47)
• Competition for Capital: Crypto now contends with other fast-growing tech spaces (AI, robotics, energy infrastructure) for speculative attention and investment, leading to less “easy flows” into altcoins.
• Structural Market Maturity: Crypto is “entering the big leagues”, according to Jason, with institutions involved and the days of community-only speculation behind it.

4. Notable Quotes & Moments

• “...the more people believe in something, the more likely that thing is to come true in markets.” — Jason Pagaladis (06:54)
• “1010 was the day when crypto’s market broke, like, actually broke.” — Jason Pagaladis (12:42)
• “Nobody’s hitting all of these [hashtag performance metas] at the same time… If you weren’t in that, you just bled out.” — Jason Pagaladis (25:47)
• “Crypto doesn’t have a tech problem, it has an asset problem. There aren’t that many great assets.” — Jason Pagaladis (30:21)
• “2026 isn’t like a coronation anymore… it’s a crossroads. Crypto now has to prove itself.” — Jason Pagaladis (24:54)

5. Asset Deep Dive: Hype/Hyperliquid & Perp DEX Wars (32:46–43:04)

• Hype (Hyperliquid): Stands out as a fundamentally strong DeFi business but faced impacts from 1010, token unlock overhang, and stiffening competition.
  • “I really like Hype. NFA. I own Hype... it occupies one of like the three areas that crypto has demonstrated product-market fit: stablecoins, exchanges, perps.” (32:46)
  • Unlocks are a concern, but the team's actions (OTC, restaking, limited selling) may alleviate market fears. “There's probably a pretty big delta in what the market was expecting sell pressure to be and what the actual sell pressure will be...” (38:57)
• Competition Watch: Paradex, Lighter, Aster—how their TVL and volumes respond post-token are the “litmus test” for which DEXs will thrive.

6. Privacy Coins Renaissance? (43:15–47:16)

• Zcash & Privacy Meta: Briefly outperformed, driven by narrative resonance and structural factors (e.g., delistings limiting sell pressure). The durability of this trend remains uncertain.
  • “Zcash is still holding pretty well, all things considered. The bid is strong over there, so it's hard. I don't know is the answer.” — Jason Pagaladis (43:37)

7. The Evolving Role of Tokens (48:00–55:43)

• CAC Tokens (Customer Acquisition Costs): Worldcoin as a case study where tokens serve as growth/acquisition incentives, not necessarily as investments. Companies like Coinbase may follow this model with their chains.
  • “Maybe these tokens aren't the best investments for next year, but I think they might be great tools for the… companies behind them to expand their footprint.” (54:54)
• RWAs and DeFi Innovations: New DeFi primitives moving beyond overcollateralized lending to new mechanisms (3Jane, Athena, energy-backed RWAs).

8. AI and Crypto – The Uncertain Angle (57:05–61:45)

• AI Agents: Much hype but investable opportunities remain speculative and ambiguous. The value chain is unclear, with most innovation and adoption likely happening outside pure-crypto tokens for now.
  • "If you want access to this narrative... you have to get really niche... But I think you can probably get exposure to it through owning the equity of the infra..." — Jason Pagaladis (57:05)

9. The Super App Race: Coinbase, Robinhood, X (62:13–79:55)

Contenders & The Super App Thesis

• Coinbase: Dominant U.S. exchange building out social (Farcaster, Zora, Base app) and financial everything-app angles. Straddling two "big bets"—not tightly integrated but both powerful.
  • “Coinbase has this sort of barbell approach... extremely fortified as the leader in the US... [plus] this emerging like Basap social media, like self-custodial, like social media apparatus.” (63:59)
• Robinhood: In the "Goldilocks zone" as a finance-native app trusted for banking/trading, now adding crypto services seamlessly. More accessible for mainstream users than Coinbase is for crypto-natives.
  • "Robinhood sits in this Goldilocks zone where it's not seen as a crypto app. It's a financial services app and it's quite respectful…" (72:51)
• X (Twitter): The “dark horse.” Lacks details but could quickly overtake due to massive user base and built-in social graph if/when it commits.

The Base Token Debate

• Tension over Tokenomics: If Coinbase issues a Base token, how will value accrue, especially with the COIN stock and sequencer fees? The suspected move is that the Base token becomes an ecosystem “alignment tool” rather than a traditional asset.
  • "The Base token is sort of this alternate lever to distribute value across creators and users..." — Jordan Yeagley (69:42)

Strategic Outlook

• Robinhood Best Placed for Mainstream: “A safer play… they're really well positioned.”
• Coinbase’s Innovative Angle: “More excited about Coinbase because it has the most immediate impact on the crypto ecosystem...”
• X as the Wildcard: Could leap-frog both thanks to its inherent network effects and ambition (“everything app” vision).

10. Most Important Timestamps

• Macro structural shift explained (03:30–08:00)
• Gold as a harbinger for bitcoin (08:00–12:14)
• 1010 Liquidations (12:14–16:21)
• Basis trade risk in treasuries (16:54–20:54)
• Stock picker’s market and asset scarcity (24:54–30:59)
• Hyperliquid analysis (32:46–43:04)
• Privacy coins trend (43:15–47:16)
• Application layer & CAC tokens (48:00–55:43)
• Super apps thesis: Coinbase, Robinhood, X (62:13–79:55)

11. Tone & Language

The episode is candid, analytical, and occasionally self-deprecating (“I got hit hard on 1010 for sure…”). Both Jason and Jordan emphasize nuance, rapid evolution, and the need for humility and open-mindedness in approaching 2026’s market. There’s a heavy focus on structural and psychological market drivers, rather than hype or simplistic narratives.

12. Memorable Closing Remarks

• Jason Pagaladis (61:52): “This was great.”
• Jordan Yeagley (80:26): “Awesome. Thank you for having me.”

Key Takeaways for 2026 Crypto Markets

• Expect increased dispersion and underperformance among altcoins.
• Macro liquidity trends, not predetermined cycles, will decide crypto’s fate.
• Passive allocation and “betting on everything” are dead—the market is for stock-pickers and visionaries.
• Winning projects will find true product-market fit and ride structural (not just narrative) trends.
• The super app race is on; Coinbase, Robinhood, and possibly X each have unique edges and challenges.
• “CAC tokens” (utility for user growth, not investment) will be a major theme with public companies launching chains.
• AI–crypto intersection promising but not yet investable; keep it on the radar.

For deeper context on each point, refer to highlighted quotes and timestamps above.