Unchained, Ep. 916: What’s the Better Bet? Stocks or Gold?
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: Laura Shin (with Steve Ehrlich moderating debate)
Guests: Ram Alawalia (Limited Capital), Vinny Lingham (Praxis Capital)
Theme: A high-level, spirited debate between two seasoned investors on the merits of investing in stocks vs. gold during turbulent macroeconomic times.
Episode Overview
This episode dives into one of the oldest — and currently hottest — debates in investing: Are stocks or gold the superior asset in a world marked by inflation, deficit spending, and shifting global dynamics? With stocks and gold both rallying, and central banks (notably China) snapping up gold, host Laura Shin (with Steve Ehrlich moderating) brings back Ram Alawalia and Vinny Lingham for a no-holds-barred, yet respectful and intellectually rigorous, argument. Along the way, the pair discuss global macro trends, asset allocation, capital flows, government policy, and their personal philosophies — even placing a live $10,000 bet on gold vs. stocks.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Opening Statements and Philosophical Grounding
Ram Alawalia:
- Argues stocks are the rational long-term bet: “The S&P500 index has a stronger track record than gold… Stocks are productive assets. They generate earnings, they generate free cash flow.” (03:49)
- Gold’s current rally is tactical, not structural: “Gold is benefiting from the fact that China is buying gold… That's a tactical consideration. It's not a long term, multi-decade consideration.”
- Warns that via ETFs, gold investors add layers of trust on custodians and sovereigns, unlike the cryptographic guarantees of digital assets.
Vinny Lingham:
- Counters with the view that gold is more decentralized and immutable: “Gold is almost as, probably even more so decentralized in holdings as something like Bitcoin. Probably more so.” (07:19)
- Differentiates finite (gold, property, Bitcoin) vs. infinite (fiat, stocks-with-issuance) assets: “The hardest finite asset on earth is gold.”
- Critiques overbought narratives, citing ongoing paradigm shifts in global macro: “My friend said gold was overbought at 2700; we're at 3800 now… There's been a paradigm shift in the macroeconomic structure of the world.”
2. Risk, Trust, and the Nature of Assets
- Ram: Even physical gold ownership often requires trust in a sovereign’s rules ("If you access it through an ETF… you are making a trust assumption on a sovereign.") (12:08)
- Real assets (stocks, real estate) reprice with inflation, but stocks uniquely buy back shares, making some stocks even more finite than gold, e.g. Apple halved its share count.
- "Not only are there finite assets, there are finite assets that decrease over time." (12:53)
- Vinny: Share buybacks create societal distortions — tax avoidance by the wealthy, inability to tax capital gains efficiently, aggravating inequality, and steering excess capital away from innovation. (16:41)
3. Macro Backdrop: Deficits, Central Banks, and Policy
- Both agree: Current deficit spending, combined with central bank activity and global realignments, are driving a “bid” in both stocks and gold.
- Vinny sees impending crisis due to high US debt/GDP, weak tax policy, and global rotation out of Treasuries into gold: "This time is different because we have the highest debt to GDP ratio we've ever seen in the US — over 120%… the only way out is inflation." (53:12)
- Ram counters: While gold as central bank reserve is rising (he shares multiple charts), long-term wealth is still most reliably built by owning claims on innovative, earnings-generating companies. (53:53)
4. The Innovation Argument: Why Stocks May Endure
Ram Alawalia:
- Gains in AI, productivity, and innovation are tangible, not hype:
“AI is driving higher productivity… Productivity is the only free lunch in economics. Both sides win. That's why productivity growth is the ultimate tonic. It can also combat inflation.” (28:19) - "Most of the time you're in a bull market if earnings are going up, if interest rates are steady, if inflation is steady or declining. Fiscal deficits are actually good for corporate earnings… The United States [is] the least dirty laundry shirt in the world. There's no other government issued bond that's better than the United States." (32:54)
5. Timing, Tactics…and a $10,000 Wager
- The conversation becomes tactical: Ram claims stocks are "tactically" stronger now; Vinny says gold is.
- Ram: "I think tactically I have an edge where we initiate the bet today." (57:53)
- They agree live, with audience witness, to two $10,000 bets:
- Whether US inflation will hit 4% within 12 months.
- Whether gold will outperform the S&P500 by July 4, 2026.
Memorable Moment / Quote
Vinny Lingham (43:29):
“We’re over three right now, so you can’t bet, you can’t bet that it won’t go to four.”
Ram Alawalia:
“I will bet you that it will not go to four. I will have to happily do that with you. Yes.”
(Live bet is made, setting the stakes for the macro debate.)
Notable Quotes & Segments (With Timestamps)
- Ram: “Stocks over the long run have outperformed gold. They will continue to outperform gold.” (05:47)
- Vinny: “When you’re buying a stock, you’re buying a future claim to the cash flows that company can generate… stocks do exceptionally well… but the hardest finite asset on earth is gold.” (07:19)
- Ram: “I'd rather trust cryptography for security… you better have a portable asset.” (Story about assets across borders, 12:53)
- Vinny: “One of the problems with share buybacks in my opinion is it actually deprives the state and the country of taxes, tax revenue. So… we've created this mechanism where we can extract value… and we're destroying the US middle class.” (16:41)
- Ram: “The story of human history has been the story of human discovery, innovation, entrepreneurship, and forming cooperative enterprises to serve others and make the world a better place…” (28:19)
- Vinny: “If you want to preserve purchasing power and wealth the lowest risk asset right now… is gold.” (11:29)
- Steve Ehrlich: “The party’s gonna end… but at the same time, I’ve been hearing these doomsday scenarios for years… stocks continue to go up.” (27:26)
- Vinny: Live bet with Ram — “Okay, so I’ll take a bet live here. Within 12 months from now, I’ll bet you $10,000 that we will see inflation hit [4%].” (43:39)
- Ram: “…the problem with the history books is we think this time it’s going to be the same, and this time actually it is different...” (53:54)
- Closing Arguments:
- Ram: "Over the last 20 years the NASDAQ has gone up 1500%. Gold's gone up about half of that… You're going to find that common stocks outperform gold." (55:53)
- Vinny: “As someone who's… taking the view that I want to preserve wealth and… purchasing power, I'm going to take a view of being barbell… cash, short-term Treasuries, and gold… gold is the best risk off approach you can take in your portfolio right now.” (55:07)
Summary Table: Where Each Guest Lands
| Point of Debate | Ram Alawalia | Vinny Lingham | |------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | Long-term Wealth | Stocks (owning innovation, productive assets) | Gold (hard, immutable, finite asset) | | Inflation Hedge | Stocks and some real assets | Gold & bitcoin win against fiat debasement | | Macro View | Deficits fuel earnings, US stocks best-in-class; innovation wins | This time is different — global debt, loss of faith in Treasuries, systemic rot | | Tactical View | Stocks tactically better right now | Gold has more upside and safety for 2025/26 | | Personal Approach | Invest in productive innovation, stay the course | Preserve capital, risk-off, await the crash |
Practical Takeaways
- For Investors: The asset allocation debate is far from black-and-white; your approach depends on whether you want to create wealth (Ram’s angle) or protect it (Vinny’s mindset).
- Policy + Macro Risks: Both agree the global system is under stress; the key difference is whether you believe in innovation and productivity as a cushion (Ram), or that fiscal dominance and debt will soon force a structural reset (Vinny).
- Track the Bet: The debate culminates in a $10,000 wager — gold vs. S&P 500 by July 2026 — and whether inflation will touch 4% within a year. This public challenge underscores the mutual respect and high conviction both guests bring to the table.
Suggested Listening Points & Timestamps
| Topic | Start Time | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Opening statements and asset nature debate | 03:49 | | Gold vs. stocks as inflation hedge | 07:19 | | Trust, confiscation, and gold’s true risks | 12:08 | | Share buybacks, tax policy, societal impact | 16:41 | | Macro risks: deficits, central bank gold bids | 33:23 | | Innovation/productivity argument for stocks | 28:19 | | The $10k live bet and tactical positions | 43:39 | | Closing arguments: preservation vs. creation | 55:07 |
Final Thoughts
This episode is a tour de force for anyone interested in macro-investing, asset allocation, and how global shifts are rewriting the rules for safe haven investments. The civil, data-rich, and dramatically entertaining debate between Ram Alawalia and Vinny Lingham provides not only insight into the question "Stocks or Gold?" but also a live demonstration of how markets, philosophies, and personalities intersect in the real world.
Most memorable line:
“The hardest finite asset on earth is gold.” — Vinny Lingham (07:19)
And for the record: The bet is on.
Will the S&P triumph in the age of AI, or is it time to bunker up with bullion? Tune back next year for the results.