Unchained Podcast: Why 2026 Is 'Too Chaotic' to Make Crypto Predictions

Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Alex Thorne (Head of Firmwide Research, Galaxy Digital), Ryan aka "Average Joe" (Crypto Research Manager, Messari)
Date: January 9, 2026

Episode Overview

Laura Shin brings together two prominent crypto researchers—Alex Thorne and Ryan ("Average Joe")—for a wide-ranging discussion about the unpredictable state of the crypto markets, the breakdown of the "four-year cycle," growing macro and regulatory pressures, the evolving landscape for blockchains (notably Ethereum and Solana), the state of prediction markets, privacy, stablecoins, and the emerging field of agentic commerce. The episode’s central theme is uncertainty: with geopolitics, macroeconomics, and technical innovation in flux, making predictions—even just one year out—is “too chaotic.”

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The End of the Four-Year Cycle: Is the Old Pattern Dead?

• [02:24] Alex Thorne: Declines to make a specific Bitcoin prediction for 2026, citing "significant uncertainty." Empirically, the four-year cycle is no longer a reliable pattern, as Bitcoin set a new all-time high before the last halving, and 2025 ended as a down year—contradicting the cycle's premise.
  • "Options markets [are] pricing basically an equal likelihood of 50k or 250k for Bitcoin by year end 2026 ... significant uncertainty about crypto market cycles." (Alex, [02:24])
• [03:45] Ryan: Wholeheartedly agrees that the four-year cycle is "definitively dead," given both the timing of the 2025 high and Bitcoin’s underperformance in late 2025. He expects Bitcoin's underperformance relative to other assets won’t persist but sees macro factors as decisive.

Macro Environment: Geopolitical Chaos, the Fed, and Market Forces

• [06:26] Alex: Sees a “put up or shut up” moment as regulatory burdens ease. The year starts with broad asset rallies, partially from expectations of lower Fed rates and fiscal policy ahead of midterms.
  • "You're in an environment where people are sort of buying everything to start the year ... a dovish Fed plus an administration that's looking to show some real force—these are bullish, no doubt. It's just ... a lot of uncertainty out there." (Alex, [06:26])
• AI’s impact on employment and the potential for job displacement is flagged as an important, underappreciated macro risk.
• [09:19] Ryan: Points to long-term trends—dollar debasement, erosion of trust in institutions, monetary easing—as enduring bull cases for Bitcoin, even as 2026 remains short-term unpredictable.
  • "On a long enough time frame, like that's not changing at all. In fact, that trend is probably accelerating." (Ryan, [09:19])

Institutional Adoption, Regulatory Environment, and Market Structure

• Alex highlights a pivotal 2025 event: during an “April tariff tantrum,” Bitcoin and equities fell, but the dollar did not appreciate—the first such departure in years, showing demand for non-dollar hedges like gold (and possibly Bitcoin) as geopolitics fracture.
• Institutional adoption and regulatory easing are identified as strong, medium-term bullish factors for crypto.

DATs (Debt-Asset Trusts): Bubble, Shakeout, and the Future

• [12:58] Ryan: Sees only "Strategy" and "Bit Miner" among DATs as potentially legit survivors, with the rest likely going nowhere. Bubble has deflated; survivability is linked to cash on hand and borrowing strategies.
  • "At this point, I think the only DATs that really matter are Strategy and Bit Miner. All the other ones you can kind of put on the back burner." (Ryan, [12:58])
• [14:25] Alex: Foresees consolidation and a long-term role for “primary DATs” in each coin ecosystem as block validators or "ecosystem champions." Risks of DATs as forced sellers are likely overblown.

Ethereum: Navigating an Identity Crisis

• [19:32] Ryan: Differentiates between "ETH the platform" (healthy, innovative) and "ETH the asset" (value accrual issues; monetary asset narrative overly reliant on Bitcoin price).
  • "I am not bullish on direct value accrual to ETH anymore ... ETH at this point, you're not going to get direct value accrual, you're not going to benefit from revenues." (Ryan, [19:32])
• [21:45] Alex: Notes Ethereum’s upgrades, but expresses concern that rollup-centric design isn’t accruing value to ETH, especially versus Solana, which is gaining real-world traction (e.g., for stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization).
  • "I worry that Ethereum's building for a high throughput, low fee future that may never come … it isn't accruing value and it's not meaningfully competing well with Solana." (Alex, [21:45])
• [24:41] Alex: Warns Ethereum may be striving for a long-term vision that never materializes if it loses relevant battles in the short term.

Solana’s Momentum and Competition

• [28:13] Alex: Highlights Solana’s growth in real-world asset tokenization, speed, and decentralized fee markets—but also its comparatively high inflation and lagging DeFi TVL.
  • "Crypto broadly needs a killer app. It still does, I think, outside of owning bitcoin, which people really like to do." (Alex, [30:10])
• Stablecoins likely to find a better home on Solana than Ethereum due to cost and speed.
• Uncertainty remains whether Solana can shift from a "casino" and meme coin platform to one with durable, high-value use cases.
• [35:52] Ryan: Points to Polygon as an example of a chain with killer apps that hasn’t translated into asset value, raising doubts about Solana’s ability to monetize growth. Notes Solana’s need to step up in perpetual DEXs (derivatives).
  • "Not only do you have to develop a killer app, but you have to develop a killer app that either generates a ton of speculative activity or uses your base asset as the monetary asset." (Ryan, [35:52])

The Perp DEX (“Hyper Liquid”) Arms Race

• [39:51] Ryan: Hyper Liquid is now more profitable than any L1. Dominance is due to technical superiority and distribution. Future winners will be determined by access to large user bases (e.g., Robinhood, Binance).
  • "Running a successful perp DEX is ... probably in terms of like, if you want to build a sustainable business in crypto outside of if you're Tether, like, this is like the next best option." (Ryan, [39:51])
• TradFi (CME, CBOE) likely to compete soon with crypto-native perps; expect innovation but also cannibalization.

Prediction Markets: Polymarket vs. Kalshi and New Frontiers

• [47:02] Alex: Emphasizes legal battles will define the fate of U.S. prediction markets, especially as both focus on sports wagering for volume. Kalshi is moving towards mainstream partnerships (Coinbase, Robinhood); Polymarket is favored by crypto-natives for being on-chain.
  • "Really, I think like, you know, the question about whether they can challenge sports whether sports prediction markets can be a financial derivative that's regulated by the CFTC and not sports gambling ... is a huge question for these platforms." (Alex, [47:02])
• [50:35] Ryan: Prefers seeing prediction markets create new markets (cultural events, reality TV) rather than just replicating sportsbooks. Sees Polymarket moving more in that creative direction.

The New Privacy Coin Wave

• [52:52] Ryan: Privacy is an enduring, maybe even accelerating trend, with projects "de-risked" after regulatory clarity. Sees Zcash, Monero as hedges against Bitcoin never achieving meaningful privacy.
  • "Privacy is probably in a super trend … fundamentally privacy is important and it never was not important. It was just like you ran the risk of going to jail to actually like support these projects … that is seemingly de-risked now." (Ryan, [52:52])
• [54:26] Alex: Questions if Bitcoin needs privacy feature upgrades, arguing that Bitcoin’s current model is inherently more private than Ethereum/Solana, but expects privacy to become more important as traditional businesses begin operating on-chain.
  • "All of our phones and all of our chat apps are all encrypted for this reason. It's not crazy to think that, you know, finance could do for some more privacy." (Alex, [55:41])

Stablecoins: The Regulatory Onslaught & Competitive Race

• [60:56] Alex: New regulatory frameworks (e.g., GENIUS Act) in the U.S. will usher in compliant, federally regulated dollar stablecoins. Banks, fintechs, and corporate L1s (e.g., Tempo, Arc) will enter, but incumbents Tether and Circle have massive head starts, especially in distribution and network effect.
  • "You're going to see banks use [stablecoins] for interbank settlement … but I don't view it as truly that crypto. It's really more of a blockchain thing." (Alex, [60:56])
• Incumbents are secure in their user base: Tether's dominance is global and hard to dislodge, while Circle may face more competition domestically.
• [67:46] Ryan: Predicts the regulatory shakeup will impact Circle/USDC more than Tether, as Tether "kind of owns the user" in non-Western regions. Sees “stablechains” like Tempo offering distribution potential with partners like Stripe, but does not expect them to disrupt DeFi primitives on established L1s.

Agentic Commerce & X402 Standard

• [70:11] Alex: Predicts agentic commerce transactions (using X402) will be significant—up to 30% of Base’s and 5% of Solana’s 2026 transaction volume.
  • "We think it's going to grow a lot. And, look, agents using on-chain dollars, we're very bullish on this." (Alex, [70:11])
• [70:34] Ryan: Believes mass adoption of agentic commerce is more likely a story for 2027 than 2026.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "It's too chaotic to predict, frankly. ... So far, I think the four-year cycle's empirically broken." — Alex Thorne ([02:24])
• "I think at this point we can definitively say the four-year cycle's dead." — Ryan ([03:45])
• "Crypto broadly needs a killer app. It still does, I think, outside of owning bitcoin, which people really like to do." — Alex ([30:10])
• "Running a successful perp DEX is ... if you're Tether, like, this is like the next best option." — Ryan ([39:51])
• "All of our phones and all of our chat apps are all encrypted for this reason. It's not crazy to think that, you know, finance could do for some more privacy." — Alex ([55:41])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:24] – Demise of the four-year Bitcoin cycle
• [06:26] – Macro factors, Fed, and global asset outlook
• [12:58] – DATs: Bubble, shakeout, and which survive
• [19:32] – Ethereum’s platform vs. asset value dilemma
• [28:13] – Solana’s fundamentals and speculative nature
• [35:52] – Solana, Polygon, monetization, and perpetual DEXs
• [39:51] – Hyper Liquid and revenue models in perps
• [47:02] – Prediction markets: Polymarket vs. Kalshi
• [52:52] – Privacy coins: Zcash, Monero, and trends
• [60:56] – Stablecoins: the new race, regulation, and incumbents
• [70:11] – Agentic commerce/X402 adoption outlook

Conclusion

This episode of Unchained gave a comprehensive—if at times deliberately non-committal—tour across all key fronts of crypto entering 2026. The consensus is clear: the previous mental models are breaking down; the pace of technological, macro, and regulatory change is accelerating; and in this "too chaotic" moment, fundamental adaptability trumps dogmatic prediction. Whether for markets, protocols, or entrepreneurs, the old comforts are gone—the only certainty is radical uncertainty.