Podcast Summary: Unchained Ep. 816 — Why CoinFund Believes There’s Still a Strong Bull Case for Bitcoin and Crypto

Date: April 11, 2025
Host: Laura Shin
Guest: Seth Gins, Managing Partner at CoinFund

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the volatility shaking all financial markets in the wake of new tariffs and shifting macroeconomic policy, with a special focus on how these factors affect crypto assets and the bull case for Bitcoin. Laura Shin and Seth Gins analyze events from a dramatic week—Trump’s tariff saber-rattling, the resulting market swings, and how these developments intersect with evolving crypto policy. Seth explains CoinFund’s continued optimism for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem, even amid market stress.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recap of Recent Macro Events & Market Reactions

Timestamps: 03:03 - 06:42

• Tariff Timeline:

  • Saturday: Implementation of initial 10% tariffs announced in the Rose Garden.
  • Midweek: Further tariff escalations on China (announced at 125%, later updated to 145%).
  • Wednesday: Administration announces a 90-day pause for most tariff increases except China, aiming to spur negotiations.

• Market Impact:

  • Before and during tariff implementation, equities, credit, and crypto markets show heightened stress.
  • Treasury yields experience extreme volatility, catching the attention of the President and his advisors.
  • Crypto mirrors traditional markets with delayed but pronounced drops; e.g., Bitcoin falls from high $80ks to ~$75k before rebounding.

“We had a big down day on Tuesday... part of what was driving that was stress indicators really showing flashing red and sending a signal to the administration that things were starting to break.”
— Seth Gins [05:34]

2. Why Crypto and Bitcoin Get Pulled Into Broader Market Stress

Timestamps: 06:42 - 08:55

• Correlation Explained:
  • Bitcoin is partly viewed as a “store of value,” but as an emerging asset it also acts as a risk-on, tech-adjacent bet.
  • When macro uncertainty hits equities and credit, it’s hard for crypto to stay immune; Bitcoin tends to follow, except in late-stage drawdowns when stimulus arrives.

“There’s a part of Bitcoin’s price that is driven by this idea of store of value... but there’s also a part that reflects the fact that it’s early in its life cycle... tied to the Nasdaq, tied to risk-on factors.”
— Seth Gins [07:37]

3. Forward-Looking Macro Factors & Crypto’s Medium-/Long-Term Prospects

Timestamps: 09:17 - 12:10

• Key Takeaways:

  • Stimulus is coming: Both China and likely the US are gearing for increased intervention to stabilize markets.
  • The “Trump put”: The administration is showing willingness to reverse course or support markets when stress gets too high, especially in credit.

• Crypto Policy Tailwind:

  • Positive crypto policy developments are being overshadowed by macro clouds, but institutional engagement and adoption continue building.
  • Post-2022, the new dynamic suggests more willingness to stabilize the economy (unlike previous austerity).

“Stimulus is coming and there is a Trump put on the market... When we combine that with positive policy for crypto... we can kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel in the medium to long term.”
— Seth Gins [09:19 and 11:41]

4. Are We on the Verge of a New Bull Market/Bull Case for Crypto?

Timestamps: 14:26 - 16:32

• Short-Term Caution, Long-Term Optimism:
  • Seth urges caution in the immediate term due to volatility but believes lead indicators (like global M2 growth, VIX, MOVE) are pointing to strong forward returns — including for crypto.
  • Considers whether the coming upside will be “Bitcoin-dominant” (with Bitcoin leading, altcoins lagging) or a broader “altcoin season.”

“When you look at the signs of stress in the market right now ... forward returns on a 30, 60, 90 day basis ... they’re quite positive. The same should flow through for Bitcoin and probably broader crypto as well.”
— Seth Gins [14:54]

5. Altcoin Season: Will We Get It and What Will Drive It?

Timestamps: 16:32 - 19:22

• Definition & Drivers:
  • “Altcoin season” is defined as significant breadth outside of Bitcoin: BTC dominance falls, and many fundamentally strong tokens outperform.
  • New dynamic: Strong fundamentals (e.g., revenue growth, real token value capture) and policy clarity (market structure bill) will matter more than hype.

“We’re seeing tokens that have strong fundamentals ... plus clear value capture ... I think those two elements are going to be really important in differentiating the tokens that ... start to see broader adoption.”
— Seth Gins [18:18]

6. Bitcoin as a Safe Haven: Where Are We Now?

Timestamps: 19:22 - 22:14

• Progress, but Not There Yet:
  • Bitcoin moving toward “digital gold” status, but adoption still early compared to gold.
  • In times of sharp market stress, gold spikes first; Bitcoin follows as stimulus expectations solidify.

“As it matures, there’s a good chance it does take on that digital gold factor... The response to uncertainty and fear is going to be stimulus and money printing... that’s bitcoin and crypto’s big tailwind.”
— Seth Gins [19:48, 21:53]

7. Stimulus & Tariff Dynamics: Are Crypto Tailwinds Dependent on “Crisis”?

Timestamps: 22:14 - 25:28

• Secular vs. Cyclical Bull Cases:
  • Even without trade chaos, deficits and secular money printing create a long-term crypto bull case.
  • But deeper/longer macro pain (from tariffs etc.) will force faster, perhaps larger stimulus and could catalyze sharper crypto rallies — if the response is “enough.”

“That’s the reason why there’s this long term secular bull case for crypto and Bitcoin that doesn’t involve tariffs and wrecking havoc globally... But when we look at what’s happening right now, there’s a question of how much is this hurting risk appetite?”
— Seth Gins [22:53]

8. Trump Administration & Crypto Policy: Net Positive?

Timestamps: 25:28 - 28:01

• Policy Outpaces Expectations:

  • Despite macro headwinds, the administration (and new SEC chair) have moved rapidly to enact crypto-friendly policies:
    • Faster dropping of SEC cases against “good actors”
    • Proactive legislative agenda
    • Initial steps on a “strategic Bitcoin reserve”

• Longer-Term Bullish Framework:

  • If/when macro clouds lift, the US crypto ecosystem is set up for expansion with less regulatory friction; institutional and developer activity can ramp up.

“The administration has delivered about 150% more than I would have expected... That’s a huge positive for the ecosystem.”
— Seth Gins [26:29, 28:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Macro Conditions:
  “The contours of this [policy] dynamic are different ... we’re seeing that when treasury volatility picks up, that’s their line in the sand.”
  — Seth Gins [11:32]

• On Market Leadership:
  “It would be ironic, because that [altcoin season] is coming after a number of headlines just a month or two ago saying, ‘Is this the crypto cycle with no altcoin cycle?’”
  — Seth Gins [16:25]

• On Policy Trajectory:
  “I think there’s a maturation happening in the space... around real fundamental value capture.”
  — Seth Gins [18:39]

Important Timestamps for Quick Reference

• 03:03 – Market recap: tariff timeline and reactions
• 06:42 – Crypto’s reaction to macro shocks
• 09:17 – What market signals is Seth tracking?
• 14:26 – Does stimulus = bull market? Should listeners be bullish?
• 16:32 – Will there be an altcoin season?
• 19:22 – Will Bitcoin ever serve as a true safe haven?
• 22:14 – Is stimulus coming regardless of tariffs?
• 25:28 – Has Trump’s administration helped or hurt crypto?
• 28:01 – Wrap-up; summary of longer-term outlook

Episode Tone

• Analytical, unflinching, but pragmatic
• Seth is candid about short-term risks but emphasizes the strong, maturing foundational (policy and adoption) story for crypto

For listeners new to this episode:
You’ll hear an expert breakdown of why, despite short-term volatility and macro headwinds, there’s still a robust bull argument for Bitcoin and crypto—driven by policy evolution, maturing use-cases, and continued institutional interest. Seth Gins offers both context and actionable frameworks for understanding the roadmap ahead.