Unchained Ep. 939: Why the Crypto Markets Seem Down Bad as Bitcoin Dips Below $100K

Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Jan Alleman (Co-founder, Glassnode), Joe Vizzani (Co-founder and CEO, LunarCrush)
Date: November 5, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the current state of crypto markets as Bitcoin experiences a dramatic drop below $100K. Laura Shin discusses with Jan Alleman and Joe Vizzani the macro factors driving this downturn, the October 10th mass liquidations, shifts in market psychology, the cooling of the “company as DAT” Bitcoin-buying trend, altcoin underperformance, and the emergence of prediction and privacy markets. The trio also debate whether Bitcoin is breaking out of its four-year cycle, the role of institutional investors, and end with their price outlook for year-end 2025.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Immediate Causes of Bitcoin’s Decline

• ETF Outflows & Corporate Selling:
  • Joe: “I think we're a little overcooked with the DAT trade right now. I think a lot of that stuff is unwinding.” [02:55]
  • Companies holding large BTC stashes (e.g., MicroStrategy) face massive drawdowns in share price, forcing some to sell BTC to maintain financial viability.
  • "We're seeing outflows from the ETFs... You're seeing the market trade, knowing that that's going to unwind a little bit more." [03:29]
• Macro Risk & Correlations:
  • Jan: “It's trading like the macro asset that it is.” [05:26]
  • US government shutdown and actual GDP hit becoming “very real” has resulted in macro risk repricing.
  • Limit order demand seen just below $100K, but both Jan and Joe expect a possible further drop to the mid-90Ks.

2. On-Chain Data & Market Structure

• Liquidity & Accumulation:
  • Jan: “We're not seeing any major structural shift... There’s a lot of accumulation.” [06:35]
  • Old hands (“OGs”) are being pushed to sell; new buyers are absorbing but not at a manic pace.
• Events Like October 10th:
  • The largest liquidation day in crypto history shook risk appetite, especially among altcoin traders.
  • Joe: “That was like probably one of the craziest days we've ever had in this industry. That's not good for us long term, definitely not good for us short term in people's confidence.” [13:05]

3. Market Sentiment: ‘The Most Bearish Bull Market Ever’

• Retail & Social Sentiment:
  • Joe: “Retail is like the lowest and most bearish it’s ever been since we started tracking... we’re tracking 50 million posts every hour.” [01:08, 26:57, 29:46]
• Portfolio Positioning & Underperformance:
  • Jan: “Early 2024 and early 2025 are two different planets completely.” [34:09]
  • Diversification across too many underperforming altcoins contributed to underwhelming returns and bearish sentiment.

4. Unwinding ‘Company as DAT’ Mania

• The boom in companies buying and holding bitcoin as a business strategy is “overcooked” and now unwinding.
• Many “bitcoin treasuries” struggle to generate actual revenues and are now being forced to sell BTC or dilute shares to meet obligations.
• “Treasury companies are kind of the new ICO NFT-type situation.” — Jan [30:37]

5. Cycle Discussion: Breaking the Four Year Pattern?

• Macro Factors Dominate:
  • Jan: “Bitcoin has traded sometimes more like gold, other times more like a tech stock... macro factors are a lot more important now.” [20:30]
  • Bitcoin’s growing role as a “macro asset” means it won’t simply follow old cycles.
  • Joe: “We have matured as an industry... These are long term infrastructure bets on what Bitcoin is.” [22:25]
• Havling Still Matters:
  • Joe: “We still have having... There will be some positioning for companies and miners...” [22:25]
  • Downturns weed out fragile miners and over-leveraged companies, leading to sector consolidation.

6. Why Gold Outperformed Bitcoin

• Central Banks and Geopolitics:
  • Jan: “The marginal buyer of gold are central banks... there’s definitely been a geopolitical shift.” [42:06]
  • Uncertainty around US governance, global shifts, and demand from China have lifted gold.
  • Joe: “Naturally, if something has a higher market cap, it's less volatile. Gold is probably a safer, less volatile asset than something like Bitcoin.” [43:59]

7. Prediction Markets & Fragmented Attention

• Joe: “People are... launching hedge funds just working on prediction markets... so that's sucking air away from crypto.” [47:30]
• Zero-sum structure and headline-driven speculative activity in prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) attract talent and capital.

8. Privacy Coins & Social Influence

• Joe: “As someone that follows social media... when you have influencers or creators that haven't spoken about something and then go hard, that installs a ton of confidence in retail.” [56:39]
• The Zcash run was partly catalyzed by influential figures publicly supporting it; cycle also reflects dissatisfaction among some “hardcore” BTC holders as Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized.

9. Ethereum and Solana: Narrative Resurgence & ETF Impact

• Ethereum:
  • Has regained narrative momentum thanks to the ETH Treasury proposal, increased stablecoin activity, relief from oversold positions, and renewed utility focus.
  • Joe: “It's bringing traders back... and it's correlated a bit more with Solana, which is probably a good thing.” [63:56]
• Solana:
  • Despite a “blockbuster” ETF launch ($199M inflow), SOL dropped 20%, showing ETF inflows alone can’t overcome a broader lack of momentum.
  • Jan: “No reason to hold a speculative asset beyond Bitcoin Ethereum... price is not reflecting the strength of flows.” [68:52]

10. Future Catalysts & Outlook

• Potential for Blow-off Top:
  • Both guests suggest a sudden, sharp rally is more likely than a slow grind, given the macro backdrop and historical analogs.
  • Jan: “The likelihood of a blowoff top is more the case than a rounded or more prolonged [move]...” [51:52, 54:43]
• Prediction Markets and Regulatory Uncertainty:
  • Open markets and “bet on anything” culture (Polymarket, FanDuel, etc.) fuel a degenerate economy.
• AI & Macro Overhang:
  • The rise of AI is transforming sector economics, leading to “blow holes” in old strategies and contributing to broad uncertainty.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Retail is like the lowest and most bearish it is... since we started tracking.” – Joe [01:08]
• "We're not seeing any major structural shift... There's a lot of accumulation." – Jan [06:35]
• “[The October 10th liquidation day]... that was like probably one of the craziest days we've ever had in this industry. That's not good for us long term, definitely not good for us short term in people's confidence.” – Joe [13:05]
• “Treasury companies are kind of the new ICO NFT-type of situation. Many flavors of the same thing, but no cohesive value proposition.” – Jan [30:44]
• “It's been the most bearish bull market ever. If you were not heavy in Ethereum and Bitcoin, you've been out underperforming in a major way.” – Jan [30:44]
• “People are, you know, launching hedge funds just working on prediction markets... that's sucking more air and more air out of these other markets.” – Joe [47:30]
• “Nothing begets price like higher prices... these things are visceral.” – Jan [51:16]
• “The likelihood of a blowoff top is more the case than a... more prolonged [top].” – Jan [54:43]
• “As someone that follows social media... when you have influencers or creators... that installs a ton of confidence in retail. That's actually how we see these quick rises and falls.” – Joe [56:39]
• “These are long term infrastructure bets on what Bitcoin is... I don't see Sailor suddenly saying he's not going to buy the top forever.” – Joe [22:25]

Timestamps of Important Segments

• Bitcoin’s drop below $100K explanations: [02:28]–[07:46]
• October 10th liquidations' impact: [11:35]–[15:51]
• Bearish bull market and social sentiment lows: [26:35], [29:54], [34:04]
• DAT/treasury company unwinding: [25:01]–[32:09]
• Macro dominance over 4-year cycles: [20:20]–[23:38]
• Gold outperformance, digital gold debate: [40:00]–[45:41]
• Prediction markets and splintering attention: [47:30]–[54:36]
• Privacy coins narrative and Zcash spike: [55:52]–[61:39]
• Ethereum & Solana narratives and ETF launches: [61:39]–[73:00]
• Year-end predictions: [73:00]–[74:53]

Closing: Price Outlook for Year-End 2025

• Joe: “I think that we do hit an all time high again. It will kind of go range bound a little bit here, but it will sneak to 130 [thousand] at some point in December.” [73:25]
• Jan: “We’ll get an all time high…smart money is already buying.” [74:12]
• Both recommend caution and positioning for upside as macro and market risks get resolved.

Summary in a Sentence:
This episode presents a sobering yet nuanced examination of why the crypto markets feel "down bad"—with macro uncertainty, systemic risk, market structure weaknesses, and narrative fragmentation overshadowing major technical triumphs and adoption milestones, while ultimately forecasting potential for another all-time high before the year is out.