Unchained Episode 974 Summary:

Will Bitcoin's New Phase Change It Forever? And Is the 4-Year Cycle Dead?
Date: December 10, 2025
Host: Laura Shin
Guests: Ryan Rasmussen (Bitwise, Head of Research) & David Nage (ARCA, Portfolio Manager)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Laura Shin delves into the rapidly changing landscape of Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets. The expert guests debate whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still applies, explore the impact of growing institutional adoption, regulatory shifts, tokenization, and the evolving dynamics between crypto’s earliest adopters and new investors. They also touch on the future of stablecoins, privacy coins, and what 2026 may bring for the crypto sector.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Death of the Four-Year Cycle [(02:47–03:49), (56:35–62:22)]

• Ryan (Bitwise): Asserts the four-year Bitcoin market cycle is "dead," due to:

  • Institutional adoption, increased regulatory clarity, and robust market infrastructure.
  • Past drivers—like the halving and interest rates—are less impactful now.
  • Predicts a smoother, less volatile price appreciation (“no more wild blow-off tops”).
  • Expects 2026 to be a positive year for crypto assets.
  • Quote: "Institutional adoption and regulatory clarity... has reduced the size of drawdowns and added liquidity and buffers to the market." (00:00)

• David (ARCA): Agrees cycles are changing, likening Bitcoin’s maturity to Facebook’s shift from youth culture to mainstream adoption.

  • Bitcoin’s “OGs” are rotating out, making way for institutional investors—a “painful, interesting rotation.”
  • Institutional investment has fundamentally changed market behavior and dynamics.
  • Quote: "We're in this very, very difficult rotation where... those that had this more radical, revolutionary idea to those that are now coming in from the institutional side." (07:23)

2. Institutional Adoption & Regulatory Clarity

[(17:12–24:05), (20:36–24:05), (18:07–18:43), (58:33–59:59)]

• Recent Developments:

  • Vanguard, once firmly anti-crypto, now offering crypto ETF access.
  • Bank of America/Merrill Lynch now recommend Bitcoin ETFs.
  • BlackRock’s active push into tokenization and crypto described as an industry “ceiling breaker.”
  • Quote, Ryan: "It was inevitable that Vanguard ultimately was going to allow their clients to invest in crypto because otherwise they risk losing their clients." (18:07)
  • Quote, David: "BlackRock really broke the ceiling... Fidelity... started this back in 2013, 14 or so... But BlackRock coming in at such velocity and such, the scope, I think really started to make all the institutional kind of delegators out there take a real notice of this." (20:36)

• Regulatory Tailwinds:

  • Recent bipartisan efforts (e.g., the Clarity/Genius Act; SEC under Paul Atkins) create optimism for further institutional flow.
  • Regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for major players to fully commit.
  • Quote, David: "This can't happen without regulatory clarity. And this I think is incredibly important..." (23:12)

3. The Facebook Analogy: Cultural & Ideological Shifts

[(03:51–11:44), (11:44–14:43)]

• David: Bitcoin’s “Facebook moment” marks a shift from a niche, ideological movement to broad acceptance and use, paralleling how Facebook evolved demographically.

  • Early adopters cashing out amid institutional arrival.
  • This migration may be ideologically driven, as early users sought decentralization and privacy.

• Ryan: Agrees with analogy but adds that profit-taking at high prices is a pragmatic driver for early holders’ exits.

  • New institutional entrants are likely committed for the long term, seeing Bitcoin as an attractive, uncorrelated asset.

4. Tokenization: Converging TradFi and Crypto

[(31:47–35:35)]

• Tokenization Defined:
  • “Every asset, including equities and bonds, are going to be tokenized.” (20:36)
• Both guests see a near-future where lines blur—crypto and traditional finance merge, simply called “finance.”
• Advantages:
  • Efficiency (settlement going from T+5 days to near-instant).
  • Transparency, reduced counterparty risk, and accessibility.
• Impact:
  • Accelerated mainstream adoption.
  • Tokenized assets predicted to impact $240 trillion in global equities and bonds.

5. Stablecoins & Payments Industry Disruption

[(41:01–46:33)]

• Stripe to charge 1.5% on stablecoin transactions, sparking concerns but expected to compress as competition ramps up.
• Stablecoins compared to email’s early days—a foundational use case before broader application develops.
• Major fintechs and payment processors expected to integrate stablecoins, leading to cost reductions and greater mainstream adoption.
  • Quote, Ryan: “I also think that just every financial institution and fintech is either going to launch their own stablecoin or, or partner with the stablecoin issuer in the next 18 months.” (45:21)

6. The Fate of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

[(36:16–40:45)]

• Many DATs now trade below their net asset value—a period of natural shakeout is expected.
• Winners will be those that shift toward building ecosystems, not just holding tokens.
• Guests predict industry consolidation, OTC deals, and that the fallout will not harm broader markets.
  • Quote, Ryan: “We're just going to see consolidation in the DAT space over the next 12 to 24 months.” (38:13)

7. The Resurgence of Privacy Coins & Tech [(48:35–56:35)]

• Renewed interest in privacy features, with Zcash and others surging, and Ethereum Foundation increasing focus on privacy.
• Drivers: GDPR, increased online surveillance, quantum computing threats to current cryptography.
• No consensus that Bitcoin’s lack of privacy will dethrone it, but privacy is viewed as an important frontier for innovation.
  • Quote, David: “There is some interesting components... from an ideological perspective and... kind of a new float of interest in privacy.” (54:26)
  • Quote, Ryan: “Crypto is no longer this one hit wonder with bitcoin, but there’s numerous different ways in which crypto technology is disrupting financial markets, traditional markets, and other use cases and applications.” (55:19)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Institutional Transformation:

  • “It was inevitable that Vanguard ultimately was going to allow their clients to invest in crypto because otherwise they risk losing their clients.” — Ryan (18:07)
  • “BlackRock really broke the ceiling...once it happens, it happens pretty fast. No one wants to be the last one on the bus.” — David (20:36)

• On the 'Facebook Moment' of Bitcoin:

  • “I recently wrote a blog post calling for Bitcoin having its Facebook moment...Initially...it was majority teenagers and early 20 year olds...Then the adults, the parents, the grandparents are coming in...it wasn't something that really attracted them anymore.” — David (03:51)

• On Stablecoins’ Growth:

  • “Stablecoins are bringing crypto to the world. And then the world is going to say, okay, well, now can I send something on top of that?” — David (46:33)

• On Tokenization:

  • “There is roughly $240 trillion between equities and bonds that can potentially be affected by real world asset by tokenization.” — David (32:22)

• On the Future of Crypto Cycles:

  • “The four year cycle is dead and will prove itself dead in 2026.” — Ryan (00:00)

• On Privacy & Innovation:

  • “What I love about the fact that privacy is becoming front and center ... is that crypto is no longer this one hit wonder with bitcoin.” — Ryan (55:19)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Ryan on the end of the four-year cycle | | 02:47 | Ryan: "A lot of investors... asking about the cycle" | | 07:23 | David’s Facebook/Bitcoin analogy | | 17:12 | TradFi institutional adoption news | | 18:07 | Why Vanguard and BoA are opening to crypto | | 20:36 | BlackRock and institutional domino effect | | 23:12 | Importance of regulatory clarity | | 31:47 | Tokenization's promise | | 41:01 | Stablecoin fee competition (Stripe, etc.) | | 46:33 | Stablecoins as crypto’s “email moment” | | 36:16 | Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) analysis | | 48:35 | Resurgence of privacy coins, Zcash, and privacy tech | | 54:26 | David on ideological and technological privacy drivers | | 56:35 | Sneak peek at 2026, up year for crypto? | | 62:22 | Ryan’s 2026 Bitcoin price target: $125K–$150K+ |

Outlook for 2026 & Price Predictions

[(56:35–62:56)]

• Ryan: 2026 to be an “up year,” driven by liquidity, interest rate cuts, regulatory clarity, rising stablecoin/tokenization adoption.

  • Predicts Bitcoin will set new all-time highs: $125,000–$150,000+, if bullish catalysts emerge (Clarity Act, institutional flows).
  • Quote: "I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin trading north of 150 this time next year." (62:22)

• David: Cautiously optimistic; believes regulatory clarity and demand-side efforts are crucial for growth.

  • Quote: "A calling for all of us in crypto... is we need to build the demand side." (61:24)

Conclusion

This episode painted a picture of crypto’s transition:

• The old “cycle logic” is giving way to more complex, institution-driven dynamics.
• Regulation and tokenization will define the next phase.
• Expanding stablecoin use, privacy innovations, and the confluence of AI are all poised to drive adoption.
• Despite transitional volatility (especially among privacy and treasury-oriented tokens), the overall sentiment is upbeat for 2026—especially if regulatory and institutional momentum continues.

For additional context, listeners are encouraged to read David Nage’s “Facebook moment” blog post and stay tuned for future Unchained episodes dissecting these evolving trends.