
What do scientists think animals might be like millions of years from now?
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Noam Hassenfeld
About 40 years ago, David Willard was working at the Field Museum in Chicago, this famous natural history museum, when he heard something strange.
David Willard
A person at another institution in Chicago just mentioned casually that birds often hit the windows at the big convention center called McCormick Place, which is a building that's right on the lake and has a lot of glass.
Noam Hassenfeld
So One morning in 1978, David went to check it out.
David Willard
I walked down in the morning and just kind of blatantly trespassed around the building out of pure curiosity, not expecting anything. And sure enough, I found three or four dead birds around the edge of the building. Having hit the glass and brought them back to the museum, David and his.
Noam Hassenfeld
Colleagues went back again and again, and they'd usually find more birds on the ground.
David Willard
We'd walk around the edge of the building with a plastic bag for dead birds, and we would take four measurements from each bird, putting the information into big ledgers.
Noam Hassenfeld
Over the last few decades, David and other volunteers have collected over 100,000 dead birds across downtown Chicago.
David Willard
When I first started, it was just a thought that here are these dead birds. We might as well at least make them useful for research and bring them back to the museum.
Noam Hassenfeld
But he started to realize this was a serious opportunity.
David Willard
It was only as the sample grew that we realized there were a lot of interesting questions that could be addressed using them.
Noam Hassenfeld
And when scientists examined this Huge amount of data. They started to notice something weird.
David Willard
Birds over the last three, 35 years have shrunk.
Noam Hassenfeld
And this wasn't just one type of bird.
David Willard
The most amazing thing that they observed is that on all of the species, whether it was a thrush, a warbler, a sparrow, they were showing this declining size. And the question of just exactly why is an open one.
Noam Hassenfeld
I'm Noam Hassenfeld and this week on Unexplainable. Why are birds and a whole bunch of other animals shrinking? Okay, Benji Jones, you wrote about these shrinking animals for vox. How much shrinking are we talking about here? Is this like birds are barely shrinking or is this more serious?
Benji Jones
It's pretty significant. So they found that birds on average over this 40 year period lost about 2.6% of their mass and a part of their leg which they used to measure. The change in size also shortened by an average of 2.4%.
Noam Hassenfeld
Yeah, I assume those kind of changes, I mean, like a 2.6% change, we would normally expect to see that over like a much longer period than 40 years, right?
Benji Jones
I mean, I think so. Like when I think about evolution, for example, in the animal kingdom, I mean, that often takes place over, over thousands of years, certainly not over 40 years. So it's pretty wild.
Noam Hassenfeld
Is it only happening in birds?
Benji Jones
It's pretty widespread. So it's not just birds that are shrinking. I've come across studies that show salamanders are shrinking over time. Fish, wood rats, deer, sheep, common toads. There are lots of things that seem to be getting smaller over time.
Noam Hassenfeld
Do scientists have any idea why animals are shrinking? What's going on here?
Benji Jones
So there's no one answer for, for all these animals, there's still a lot we don't know. But scientists do have some guesses that that might explain what's going on. Huh.
Noam Hassenfeld
So, so what's the best guess we have to explain the shrinking here?
Benji Jones
There's been a fair amount of research on birds and some studies on, on mammals as well that appears to link the, these shrinking animals to global warming, to climate change. Literally just the world is getting hotter and that is what's causing the shrinking effect.
Noam Hassenfeld
How does climate change make animals smaller?
Benji Jones
There is this principle in ecology called Bergman's rule. Essentially, across the range of a warm blooded species, like a kind of bird or kind of mammal, you will see smaller versions of that animal in hotter climates and larger versions of that animal in colder climates. One explanation for this has to do with how easy it is to get rid of heat in a hot climate. It's just much easier to cool down if you're small. And you can think about it like recipes that call for small softened butter, which always drives me crazy because I'm never planning ahead when I'm cooking. And so I'm like, damn it, I have to like soften this butter quickly and I'll often like cut it into little cubes. And tiny cubes of butter soften faster because there's more surface area versus one larger stick.
Noam Hassenfeld
So if you want to get rid of heat, it helps to be smaller and have more surface area relative to how big you are. And I assume not being able to get rid of heat is bad, right?
Benji Jones
Exactly. In a hot environment because you would potentially overheat.
Noam Hassenfeld
Where does this get complicated? Why is that? Not just, you know, okay, case closed, it's getting hotter. Animals are getting smaller.
Benji Jones
One of the things that makes it complicated is that Bergman's rule applies to warm blooded creatures. So these are things that create their own heat. But it seems that there's also this trend that cold blooded animals, so things like insects and amphibians are also shrinking in response to warming. So it's not just about warm blooded creatures.
Noam Hassenfeld
So Bergman's rule wouldn't explain why some cold blooded animals are also shrinking.
Benji Jones
Exactly. And when you start to ask kind of why, why, why, that's when there are lots of different theories that potentially apply. And we don't have that great of an idea.
Noam Hassenfeld
Why could cold blooded animals be shrinking?
Benji Jones
So, so if you look at something like frogs, what researchers have found is that when it's hotter, their metabolism speed up. That means that they are actually kind of growing faster, transitioning through life stages faster. So a frog goes from tadpole to baby frog at a faster rate, which just means that they are smaller by the time that they're adults and they don't grow much beyond there.
Noam Hassenfeld
Okay, so is that the only thing that makes this shrinking animal question kind of hard to answer, that both warm and cold blooded animals are shrinking?
Benji Jones
Well, some animals are actually not shrinking and getting bigger as the climate warms, according to some research at least.
Noam Hassenfeld
What kind of animals are getting bigger?
Benji Jones
Yeah, so there hasn't been a ton of research, but I have seen a couple studies. One was on the American martin, which is this cute ferret like animal. And then another was on the Eurasian otter, also a very cute animal. And one theory for why they could be getting bigger is that there's either more food available because there's longer summer or spring periods where food grows, or it could even be Just because they're spending less energy trying to keep themselves warm, because it's just more of an ambient, comfortable temperature outside.
Noam Hassenfeld
Okay, so then why wouldn't that just lead to birds getting bigger too?
Benji Jones
Yeah, that's a really good question. So it's just really hard to say why there is this variation. I think these examples are just helpful because they kind of poke a hole at this being this overall effect of shrinking. Like it's just not the case.
Noam Hassenfeld
So it seems like global warming could be changing the shape of animals over time, but we don't really know which rules apply to which specific animals and exactly how they apply. That's all like still unknown.
Benji Jones
Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it.
Noam Hassenfeld
And for the animals that are shrinking, do we know if we're watching evolution happen here, like birds are evolving to be smaller, that somehow it's better for them?
Benji Jones
Yeah. So that's the other big unknown. Right. Like I have seen some research that suggests that this is an evolved trait. For some birds, in some way being smaller is going to benefit them in a warmer world, which gets back into Bergman's rule. But for some animals, we know that when it's warmer during their development, they'll just get smaller. So that's not evolved, it's just happening as they're growing. So for frogs for example, and other amphibians, that seems to be the case. And we know this because scientists can alter the temperature in a lab setting, for example, while they're just growing, growing these different animals and they see that they just don't get as big.
Noam Hassenfeld
Got it. So this isn't like passed down to future generations like Bergman's rule. Right. This is just happening to these particular hot frogs.
Benji Jones
Yeah. And that would be what scientists call like a plastic change. And so for cold blooded creatures, it seems that these kind of like within lifetime changes might be responsible for the, for the shrinking effect.
Noam Hassenfeld
And I assume it's important to figure out kind of which one is happening here, whether a certain shrinking is evolved or whether a certain type of shrinking thinking is during an animal's lifetime.
Benji Jones
Right, exactly, exactly. And so if it's happening during an animal's lifetime, such as with frogs, that definitely can come with some serious consequences. When it's evolved, like what scientists think might be happening with birds, it's probably a little bit less scary. But it's important to keep in mind that there are still limits of adaptation. And the climate is warming really, really fast right now, much faster than it's warmed in the past. So can These birds evolve to live in warmer climates fast enough. We don't know. And even more importantly is that some animals are getting smaller at a faster rate than others. Some animals are even getting bigger. And that creates big problems at an ecosystem level.
Noam Hassenfeld
Do you think more and more animals are going to start shrinking or is this just too hard to predict?
Benji Jones
Yeah, this is like a question that I feel like I. Every time I write a story about how climate change intersects with biodiversity, I get to this point in the story where it's like climate change is having way more complicated impacts than we imagined and they're really hard to predict. And I feel like this is a perfect example of that. Like, it is just, it's so hard to understand how warming temperatures are going to affect these really complicated ecosystems. And so trying to predict what will happen to a given species is really, really difficult.
Noam Hassenfeld
After the break, we try out some really, really difficult predicting. And not just 40 years in the future. We're going much, much further. That's avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app download today.
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Manding Nguyen
Birds. Birds. Birds. Birds. Birds. Birds.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
Birds.
Manding Nguyen
Birds.
Noam Hassenfeld
It's unexplainable. We're back, and I'm here with producer Manding Nguyen. Hey, Mandy. You've been hard at work producing this shrinking animals episode, and when we left off, we were talking about how hard it is to predict how these animals might end up changing in the future.
Manding Nguyen
Yeah, but I really wanted to try and predict it anyway.
Noam Hassenfeld
Okay.
Manding Nguyen
Obviously, it's hard to predict the future, and it's harder the further you go out, but I. I spoke to a bunch of scientists about what future animals might look like, and I had some fun with it, and I made a little nature documentary of the future.
Noam Hassenfeld
Okay, let's hear it.
Narrator
The Earth, millions of years in the future, this blue planet still teems with life forms. But humans are not among them. Our dominion has. And other creatures have filled the open spaces that we have left behind.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
The vast pools of carbon dioxide that we produced retained in the atmosphere for tens of thousands of years. And that has resulted in a renaissance of green plants. And then without humans around to harvest them, plant life has flourished and diversified. And so we now have an atmosphere that's richer in oxygen than the one that we have now.
Narrator
Plants have flooded the atmosphere with oxygen, reshaping life on the Earth's surface. Insects are especially affected.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
Insects breathe not with lungs like we do, but with tiny tubes called trachea that are found throughout their body. And researchers hypothesize that after insects reach a certain size, they can't get enough oxygen through their trachea because of a problem with surface area to volume limitations.
Narrator
But with more oxygen in the atmosphere, those limits may not apply. This is what happened millions of years ago in the late Carboniferous period, around.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
300 million years ago, we know there were dragonflies that were around the size of hawks and ants as big as hummingbirds.
Narrator
Now, in the world of the future, history repeats itself.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
Imagine that you're in a tropical forest in the future. As you stumble through this forest, all of a sudden you see an animal that you recognize as a praying mantis, but one the size of a cocker. Spaniel. It has all the same features as the praying mantis that you know, triangular head, the large compound eyes that are following you around. But it's just much, much bigger than you're used to.
Narrator
The praying mantis crouches camouflaged against a tree trail trunk. Motionless, she lies in wait for her prey.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
It can hunt small to medium mammals. It can hunt lizards, birds and even fishes, but actually specializes in giant cockroaches that roam the forest and are around the size of Pomeranians.
Narrator
A herd of cockroaches amble by their long antenna, prodding the forest floor. One of the roaches strays to the side, unaware of the hungry mantis. The praying mantis flashes her claws and grabs hold of the flailing roach. Her grip is strong and she takes a clean bite out of its head. A delicious victory. But the world of the future has more than just insects. Since the Anthropocene, many large mammals have gone extinct. And in their absence, survivor animals like rats have taken center stage.
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The groups of mammals that do survive, like rodents, are gonna occupy the ecological niches that are vacated by all these.
Narrator
Other animals, animals like whales and sea lions. These marine animals, many of which have gone extinct, evolved from land dwelling ancestors.
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Like seals and sea lions, seem to be two different independent lineages of mammals that evolved to be aquatic and semi aquatic, you know, respectively.
Narrator
What was once an ocean devoid of large marine animals is now home to creatures displaying evolution's creativity. Creatures like the whale rat.
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So this whale rat has evolved to become fully aquatic. So it's lost its fur, it's lost its whiskers, you know, it's all gone. Its tail has maybe become more like an eel's tail. It's become really compressed so it can help with swimming. And its arms and its legs have both evolved into flippers.
Narrator
In this future world, whale rats are the size of porpoises, sleek and fully at home in the water. The coastlines in spring are a playground for restless young whale rats. The pups tussle in the shallower waters while their families rest nearby. High above them, a bat spreads its six foot wings and soars over the waves. But this is no ordinary bat. This is a sailing bat.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
It's a bat that lives in the ocean and has evolved very extreme anatomy to sail and soar on ocean air currents for very long distance.
Narrator
Years of sea level rise have forced this bat far out of the niche occupied by its ancestors in search of a nourishing meal.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
Their wings are long, narrow, they're stiff, allowing these bats to glide to conserve Energy.
Narrator
The sailing bats glide instead of flap, traveling sometimes for hundreds of miles without landing. As they soar, they chatter at the waves and listening for their next meal.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
They have long faces with conical teeth that allow them to snatch prey off of the surface of the water as they forage for aquatic prey. Using a very sophisticated echolocation system.
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The.
Narrator
Sailing bats catch the ripples in the water made by the young whale rats and descendants for a closer listen. As they approach, they send out fewer pulses of sound with large intervals in between. They're listening for the exact location of their prey. The whale rat pups have given themselves away. The sailing bats dive, snapping their long mouths at the water's surface. The sailing bats make short work of the whale rat pups. Soon they soar off again, traversing across a planet that is still rich with wonders, wonders that may be familiar to us or perhaps entirely different.
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And this is the beautiful thing about evolution because, you know, you can have the same starting conditions and just one little change to the DNA, one little happenstance about what predators are around, what pollinators are around, that can change everything in the course of what's gonna happen over the next many millions of years.
Manding Nguyen
That's as far as I got, but I hope you enjoyed it.
Noam Hassenfeld
I mean, that was amazing. I loved it. But like, how realistic is this? Is this science fiction or is this kind of reasonable prediction?
Manding Nguyen
It's definitely more speculation than definitive prediction, but a lot of the scientists answers were rooted in science. You know, I posed the question as something that was like a fun and interesting question, but I was pleasantly surprised at how seriously they took this question.
Noam Hassenfeld
When scientists are thinking about a question like this, of what animals could look like in the far future, what's their starting point? To answer a question like that, they.
Manding Nguyen
Approached it in a few different ways. You know, some started by thinking about what animals they thought was most likely to survive that far in the future. So this is where the rats came from?
Noam Hassenfeld
Yeah. They're just really good survivors, right?
Manding Nguyen
Yeah. So they're hardy, they do well living with humans, and they're probably going to make it. Some other scientists, they started by envisioning what the future environment would look like and then working backwards. And that's how we got animals like the sailing bats or the whale rats with things like rising sea levels or.
Noam Hassenfeld
Like the huge insects because of the high oxygen levels.
Manding Nguyen
Exactly. And some scientists, when they were answering this question, some of them went completely outside of Earth.
Noam Hassenfeld
Like aliens?
Manding Nguyen
Not aliens, in this case. We're still talking about life from Earth. Specifically, we're talking about slime molds.
Noam Hassenfeld
Slime molds?
Manding Nguyen
Yeah. Slime molds are these weird organisms. Like, they're not a plant or an animal or a fungus. And this scientist I spoke to, her name is Tiffany Taylor, she was speculating about a future where humans brought slime molds to Mars.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
They were taken to Mars as part of sort of early experimentation, but unfortunately, there were a few escapees that managed to get out onto Mars's surface and explore.
Manding Nguyen
They're already these really strange creatures and can take so many shapes and forms. And they might become even weirder on another planet.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
Should they encounter an organism that they need to run away from, they can change their shape such that they might acquire legs and might start running off very quickly. So their adaptability is absolutely their strength. They have no set form. They can adapt to whatever their environment requires.
Noam Hassenfeld
Wait, the slime molds are sprouting legs in this scenario? Are we still in real science mode?
Manding Nguyen
We were definitely getting a little sci fi and joking about the slime molds sprouting legs and running away. But. But it was really fun to think about how life might evolve away from Earth because those processes are not something that we really know about at all.
Noam Hassenfeld
Yeah. Darwin never got a chance to figure out what would happen on Mars.
Manding Nguyen
Yeah.
Noam Hassenfeld
You know, there are all these different ways that scientists are answering this question. It certainly sounds like they had tons of fun answering this. But you also said they took it really seriously. Like, what is the ultimate point of this exercise? Is it just sort of like a way to stretch our brains about what's possible, or is there something more important here?
Manding Nguyen
Yeah. I was also curious about what scientists took away from this exercise. And one of the scientists, Liz Alter, she gave me an answer that I really liked.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
So evolutionary biologists are very used to thinking about long timescales in the past, but it's somehow a lot harder to envision the future, which is interesting. And I think that's, you know, it's partly because humans have just been this tiny blip in evolutionary history. Right. Our species is only a few hundred thousand years old, but in that short time that we've been on the planet, we've completely altered these basic aspects of geochemical cycling. And so, as a consequence, how evolution proceeds for the Earth's inhabitants has changed as well.
Manding Nguyen
Life is probably going to persist, and any future animal or ecosystem that exists is going to be impacted by what happens today.
Narrator/Scientist Voice
You know, it makes it a very sobering thing to think about the long future. What that long future will look like. But I do think it's a really useful and important exercise, especially because we're at a point as a species where we're going to have to make some hard choices to avoid a future Earth that's uninhabitable, at least for us.
Manding Nguyen
No one can say what the future's gonna be. So I think it's worth then asking, like, what future animal and future environments do we think might exist? Like, what future is possible?
Narrator/Scientist Voice
I think that it would be really, really cool to see giant bugs, but I it would just be nice if humans are actually around to see them.
Manding Nguyen
Thank you to all the scientists who spoke with me for this episode, including Liz Alter, who spoke about the giant praying mantises, Jingmai o' Connor, who talked about whale rats, Charlene Santana, she spoke about the sailing bats, Tiffany Taylor, who brought the slime molds on Mars, and Julia Sigwert, who shared some big reflections on evolution. And an especially huge thank you to James Barum, our very own David Attenborough. This episode was produced by me, Manning Nguyen, with help from Meredith Hoddinott and Bird Pinkerton. There was editing from Noam Hassenfeld and Brian Resnik, scoring was done by Noam and Meredith, fact checking was done by me, and the sound design was from the always brilliant Christian Ayala. We spoke to a ton of scientists for this episode and we didn't have space for all of them, but I just wanted to give a big, big thank you to Corey Evans, Tanisha Allen, Alexis Makhailo, Jessica Warehouse, Maireen Belisi, Sahas Barveh and Danielle Edwards. Email us@ unexplainableox.com if you have any thoughts on the show, and if you feel like leaving us a nice review or rating wherever you listen, we'd all really appreciate it. Unexplainable is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network and we'll see you next Wednesday. Foreign.
Benji Jones
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Podcast: Unexplainable (Vox)
Episode Date: August 25, 2025
Main Guests/Contributors: Noam Hassenfeld (Host), Benji Jones (Vox Science Writer), Manding Nguyen (Producer), various scientists (see credits)
In this episode, Unexplainable explores a mysterious trend in the animal kingdom: the shrinking of many animal species, particularly birds, over recent decades. The hosts investigate why this is happening, the scientific theories behind it, and even speculate – with the help of scientists – on what animals might look like millions of years in the future, including a playful imagining of future life on Earth and beyond.
[05:01] There is no single answer, but climate change is a leading suspect.
[05:34] Benji introduces Bergmann’s Rule: “Across the range of a warm-blooded species...you will see smaller versions of that animal in hotter climates and larger versions...in colder climates...It's just much easier to cool down if you're small.”
“In a hot environment because you would potentially overheat.” — Benji Jones [06:39]
[06:50] Cold-blooded animals (e.g., amphibians) are also shrinking, even though Bergmann's Rule shouldn’t apply to them. Instead, “when it’s hotter, their metabolism speed up...they are smaller by the time that they're adults.” — Benji Jones [07:32]
[09:12] Is the shrinking genetic (evolution) or a response during development (plasticity)? For birds, some evidence suggests evolution, but for cold-blooded animals, plasticity (changes within an animal’s lifetime) is likely.
“That would be what scientists call a plastic change...for cold-blooded creatures, it seems that these kind of like within lifetime changes might be responsible for the shrinking effect.” — Benji Jones [10:01]
[10:23] Whether shrinking is evolved or not has major consequences for species' survival, especially with the current rapid pace of climate change.
Why so fast?
"A 2.6% change, we would normally expect to see that over, like, a much longer period than 40 years, right?" — Noam Hassenfeld [04:18] "When I think about evolution...that often takes place over thousands of years, certainly not over 40 years. So it's pretty wild." — Benji Jones [04:26]
Uncertainty highlight:
"Trying to predict what will happen to a given species is really, really difficult." — Benji Jones [11:10]
[14:27] Manding Nguyen creates a "nature documentary" for the far future, combining scientific principles with imaginative speculation.
Key Sci-Fi Creatures:
Science Underpinning the Speculation:
“You can have the same starting conditions and just one little change to the DNA, one little happenstance about what predators are around, what pollinators are around, that can change everything in the course of what’s gonna happen over the next many millions of years.” — Scientist voice [21:29]
[22:09] Is this realistic or science fiction?
“It’s definitely more speculation...but a lot of the scientists' answers were rooted in science.” — Manding Nguyen
[24:59] Why do scientists indulge in these thought experiments?
“Evolutionary biologists are very used to thinking about long timescales in the past, but it's somehow a lot harder to envision the future...in that short time that we've been on the planet, we've completely altered these basic aspects of geochemical cycling. And so, as a consequence, how evolution proceeds for the Earth's inhabitants has changed as well.” — Liz Alter, scientist voice [25:07]
[25:41] Impact of human choices:
“Life is probably going to persist, and any future animal or ecosystem ... is going to be impacted by what happens today.” — Manding Nguyen
“It makes it a very sobering thing to think about the long future ... especially because we're at a point as a species where we're going to have to make some hard choices to avoid a future Earth that's uninhabitable, at least for us.” — Scientist voice [25:49]
“Birds over the last three, 35 years have shrunk.”
— David Willard [03:05]
“When I think about evolution...that often takes place over thousands of years, certainly not over 40 years.”
— Benji Jones [04:26]
“It's pretty widespread...there are lots of things that seem to be getting smaller over time.”
— Benji Jones [04:38]
"In a hot environment ... you would potentially overheat."
— Benji Jones [06:39]
"Trying to predict what will happen to a given species is really, really difficult."
— Benji Jones [11:10]
“You can have the same starting conditions and just one little change to the DNA...that can change everything in the course of what’s gonna happen over the next many millions of years.”
— Scientist voice [21:29]
“Life is probably going to persist, and any future animal or ecosystem... is going to be impacted by what happens today.”
— Manding Nguyen [25:41]
“It makes it a very sobering thing to think about the long future...especially because we're at a point as a species where we're going to have to make some hard choices to avoid a future Earth that's uninhabitable, at least for us.”
— Scientist voice [25:49]
For full credits and a list of participating scientists, see [26:45] and end of transcript.