How good was Michael Jordan, really?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Unexplainable Episode – "How Good Was Michael Jordan, Really?"

Release Date: July 28, 2025
Host/Author: Vox
Duration: Approximately 45 minutes

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Introduction to the Episode's Theme

In this thought-provoking episode of Unexplainable, the Vox team delves into one of sports' most enduring debates: the true greatness of Michael Jordan. Hosted by Pablo Torre, alongside contributors Tom Haberstro and Alex Rucker, the episode challenges the conventional metrics used to evaluate Jordan's legacy by investigating the integrity of NBA statistics from the past.

The Subjectivity of NBA Statistics ([01:23] - [03:51])

Tom Haberstro opens the discourse by expressing skepticism about the objectivity of NBA statistics beyond straightforward metrics like points scored. He narrates an unsettling realization that statistical categories such as assists and blocks may have been subject to subjective judgment calls by official scorekeepers. A pivotal moment in the episode is the revelation of Nick Van Exel's anomalous 23-assist game, which doesn't align with available game footage.

Notable Quote:
Tom Haberstro ([01:23]): "Exactly how good was Michael Jordan? You know, the basketball goat?... A lot of those numbers are just something we assume happened."

Unraveling the Stat Manipulation Conspiracy ([03:51] – [17:17])

The conversation intensifies as Pablo Torre interviews Alex Rucker, a renowned figure in NBA analytics. Alex recounts his discovery of inconsistencies in NBA stats dating back to the late 1990s, particularly focusing on the Vancouver Grizzlies' season where exaggerated statistics were prevalent. Their investigation reveals a systemic issue where stats were "cooked" to enhance player appearances and team marketability.

Key Points:

• Case Study: Nick Van Exel's 23-assist game lacked supporting footage, suggesting manipulative recording.
• Expansion Teams' Strategy: The Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies reportedly inflated stats to gain media attention and bolster team profiles.
• Alex Rucker's Evidence: Through old media guides and digital archives, Alex uncovered discrepancies that corroborate the manipulation narrative.

Notable Quote:
Alex Rucker ([11:05]): "If you watch the film, the very first assist that Nick Van Exel has, it's not even on the screen... When you look at the box score, I couldn't believe it."

Implications on Historical NBA Records ([17:17] – [33:02])

As Alex and Pablo delve deeper, they analyze the broader impact of these manipulations on NBA history. They highlight significant disparities in block and steal statistics, especially favoring home teams, which likely skewed the perceived performance of legendary players like Michael Jordan and Vince Carter.

Key Points:

• Statistical Inflation: From the mid-80s to the early 2000s, certain teams exhibited a stark inconsistency between home and away stats, with blocks and assists frequently exaggerated.
• Impact on Legends: Questions arise about the authenticity of Michael Jordan's defensive accolades, such as his 1988 Defensive Player of the Year award, given the inflated block stats.
• Contemporary Reflections: The duo contrasts past data manipulation with today’s more accurate and scrutinized statistical recording methods, thanks to advancements like Sport View.

Notable Quote:
Alex Rucker ([27:14]): "When you look at what Alex is alleging and then you look at the numbers on basketball reference... [it] was part of how they marketed the team."

Modern NBA and the Evolution of Stat Accuracy ([33:02] – [44:23])

Transitioning to the present, the episode examines how the NBA has revolutionized its data collection and analysis techniques. Modern technologies and stringent oversight have substantially reduced the room for statistical manipulation, providing a more accurate reflection of player performances.

Key Points:

• Technological Advancements: Introduction of systems like Sport View ensures precise tracking of player movements and actions, minimizing human error and bias.
• Enhanced Oversight: Increased scrutiny and transparency in stat-keeping have bolstered the credibility of current NBA statistics.
• Shift in Game Dynamics: The modern emphasis on pace and efficiency has naturally led to higher scoring without the need for data inflation.

Notable Quote:
Nick Van Exel ([34:20]): "There's so much more scrutiny, oversight, review of it now where you should have a lot more faith and confidence in the data that's pumped out now than the data that was pumped out 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago."

Concluding Reflections: The Human Element in Sports Statistics ([44:23] – [46:43])

In the episode's culmination, Pablo Torre and Alex Rucker reflect on the inherent human element in sports and the delicate balance between entertainment and statistical integrity. They emphasize the importance of maintaining a healthy skepticism towards historical data while acknowledging the strides made in modern analytics.

Key Points:

• Historical Context: Recognition that past NBA seasons operated in a less regulated statistical environment, where entertainment often took precedence over pure data accuracy.
• Trust in Data: Encouragement to appreciate current statistical methodologies while critically evaluating historical records.
• Legacy of Legends: Despite historical manipulations, the legacy of players like Michael Jordan remains influential, albeit with a nuanced understanding of their recorded achievements.

Notable Quote:
Pablo Torre ([43:06]): "We thought. This is one thing Alex Rucker mentioned to me and it stuck with me in my head is it's good to have a healthy appreciation, a healthy respect, a healthy skepticism of data."

Final Thoughts

Unexplainable's episode "How Good Was Michael Jordan, Really?" offers a compelling exploration into the complexities surrounding sports statistics and their impact on the legacies of basketball's greatest players. By uncovering potential manipulations in historical data, the podcast invites listeners to reassess preconceived notions and appreciate the meticulous advancements in modern sports analytics.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Pablo Torre]

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[Strawberry Me]

Support for this show comes from Strawberry Me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job or are you stuck in one you've outgrown or never wanted in the first place? Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from Strawberry Me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to Strawberry Me Unstuck to claim a special offer.

[Tom Haberstro]

One of the things that always blows my mind, no matter how many times I think about it, is that I've never really touched anything. Like, I can feel my chair. It feels solid. I'm sitting on it right now, but no part of me is actually touching it. I'm just feeling the electromagnetic force between my atoms and the ones in the chair. I'm kind of hovering. We're all hovering all the time. This kind of thing tends to happen a lot. The closer you look, things get sort of wiggly, even simple questions, things I've taken for granted my whole life. Like this great one I came across recently. Exactly how good was Michael Jordan? You know, the basketball goat? How good was he at actually playing basketball? So the way any normal basketball fan would try to answer this question is by going to the stats, right? You look up any given game, you'll see how many points he had, how many blocks, how many assists. But then you start asking yourself, how do they know how many he had? Well, the answer is that an official in the stadium entered those things into a database and like, okay, points are easy. You know, you put in one point for a free throw, two points for a layup, three points for a three pointer. Simple. But everything else blocks, assists. They're kind of judgment calls, those numbers that get etched into basketball history as records that fans end up viewing as somewhere between objective Truth and almost scripture. A lot of those numbers are just something we assume happened. Like my butt assumes it's touching my chair. I started thinking about this after I listened to an episode of one of my favorite podcasts. Pablo Torre finds out where they pulled on this thread of NBA stats, and they sort of ended up unraveling the whole sweater. So we wanted to share it with you. As they say in the episode, in a very unexplainable way, the deeper we go in NBA history, it feels like the more we don't know. Okay, here's Pablo.

[Pablo Torre]

Tom Haverstrough, it is a pleasure to have you in the flesh at this desk with revelations to present to me.

[Alex Rucker]

Happy to be here, Pablo.

[Pablo Torre]

You being a protagonist of this story matters because this story begins really in my. In my life at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, which we just call Sloan.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah.

[Pablo Torre]

As if people know what that is.

[Alex Rucker]

Typically, it's very embarrassing when you're at, like, a cocktail party or you're at an event and you're just like, yeah, I'm going to Sloan next weekend, or I just got back from Sloan, and people are like, what are you talking about?

[Pablo Torre]

Right. In our defense, Sloan became a thing that got mentioned in season nine of the Office.

[Tom Haberstro]

Hey, so Wade wants to send people to the Sloan Conference. We got to compile a list of our target clients.

[Pablo Torre]

Already on it. But in reality, what this is is a giant nerd fest.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah.

[Pablo Torre]

Where the celebrities there in the VIP room, which is very well guarded, by the way. Those celebrities include people like you. Because. Because we'll get to the. The big names in sports. But, like, you made your career on numbers. Right. Like, I. Forgive me for simplifying your life, but I have always considered you like basketball analytics expert Tom Haberstro.

[Alex Rucker]

I grew up loving basketball, playing basketball, baseball, football, and just loving the math side of the game, and then kind of broke into espn. Being a stats researcher, the biggest break I could ever imagine is at 25 years old, I'm going down to Miami to cover LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh in 2010 at a time when their analytics wasn't a word.

[Pablo Torre]

So you were, like, putting these historical performances into statistical context as a. As a matter of the beat that you were on.

[Alex Rucker]

Right. Like, when Skip Bayless is saying, oh, LeBron doesn't have a clutch gene, I actually go into the data and I say, like, actually, here's what the data says. He's much more efficient than Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant and Ray Allen. And I was Covering the. The team, the biggest team in sports, with an analytical lens, using statistics to tell stories.

[Pablo Torre]

Right. And so when we go to Sloan, which is a thing that started at an MIT lecture hall, by the way. Right. That has since bloomed, mutated into something that takes over, like, the largest convention centers in Boston, as it will this Friday, actually, what we're doing is going to a place where you, Tom Haberstrough, are something of a celebrity. And both of us have, you know, moderated panels at Sloan, which is. What a brag.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah.

[Pablo Torre]

This is the panel I'm moderating because, as Charles Barkley put it, I couldn't get girls in high school. So thank you.

[Alex Rucker]

Welcome to Basketball 100 panel. We're supposed to look into the future and tell everybody what it's going to look like in 25 years. So good luck with that.

[Pablo Torre]

At a certain point, to be a kid in America who loves sports went from I want to be an athlete to I want to be a general manager, and this is like the power center where that stuff actually seems possible because you see the people who count as, like, heroes and idols to. Yeah. To sports nerds.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah. Well, there's. Daryl Morey is the head of Dorkapalooza, which I think Bill Simmons coined, is that he is Dork Elvis of Dorkapalooza, which is the Sloan Conference. I'm not so sure how Daryl feels about that nickname.

[Pablo Torre]

It fits.

[Alex Rucker]

But he is the. The face of it.

[Pablo Torre]

The guy who claimed, famously, that, empirically speaking, James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan.

[Alex Rucker]

If you looked at data at the time, once he had the ball in his hands. And it's still true to this day.

[Pablo Torre]

And I get a lot of.

[Alex Rucker]

Because someone asked me who's a better scorer, him or Michael Jordan. And it's just factual that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan.

[Pablo Torre]

Based on the math. Based on, literally, you give James Harden.

[Alex Rucker]

The ball, and before you're giving up the ball, how many points do you generate, which is how you should measure offense. James Harden is by far number one.

[Pablo Torre]

So obviously, he's now running the Sixers.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah, running the Sixers. And then there's Alex Rucker, who is a stats nerd, who rose in the front office of the Toronto Raptors, who figured out, like, sport view data and camera tracking and how to arrange the defensive players optimally. And rose to become the executive VP of basketball operations for an NBA team.

[Nick Van Exel]

Now, I used to kind of oversee analytics and the research and development, the data scientists, the computer geeks, if you will. And so now I oversee all the departments within basketball operations.

[Pablo Torre]

And then, of course, like, there's. I mean, Mr. Moneyball himself.

[Alex Rucker]

My God.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah.

[Alex Rucker]

And he's at Sloan.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes. Billy Beane himself shows up. The game is really smart. In fact, I would say that baseball has become one of the most intelligent.

[Alex Rucker]

Industries in the world, in my opinion.

[Pablo Torre]

And you see it now with the use of analytics.

[Alex Rucker]

The people running baseball teams are much.

[Pablo Torre]

Different than when I started.

[Alex Rucker]

And I think it's a compliment to.

[Pablo Torre]

The intelligence of the game. And so this conference now, as it's gotten more and more expensive and more exclusive and. And hard to get into, it's very clearly part business school, part Silicon Valley, big tech. And also, if we're being just very honest about ourselves and each other, it's also part, you know, Internet forum come to life. Yes.

[Alex Rucker]

Internet forum come to life. The reason why we're sitting here today, Pablo, is because of an Internet Forum. Back in 2009. It all starts here in the APBR.

[Pablo Torre]

Metrics forum, which I did not know about until you called me up, like, deeply excited to explain what this is.

[Alex Rucker]

This is a meeting of the minds. It is the NBA Reddit, before NBA Reddit existed. So I used to be in this forum all the time. Every day I would check in to kind of, like, see what's going to be happening in the future. Like, it was a glimpse into. This is where the industry is going.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[Alex Rucker]

This is how to optimize the game. What's the most efficient way to score basketball? Here's a study.

[Pablo Torre]

Before Sloan, you guys were doing this on this message board.

[Alex Rucker]

And then One night, Tuesday, July 14, 2009, someone posted the headline scorekeeper story with a bomb. The revelation in this that a poster had heard from a friend tell him a story about his experience as a stat keeper in the NBA. He's a stat keeper from 1997, the Vancouver Grizzlies. Okay, this is peak Jordan era. I'm 11 years old, I'm reading this forum, and this scorekeeper is saying he was cooking the books for the Vancouver Grizzlies. I remember vividly Pablo sitting at my island kitchen table watching SportsCenter, and Nick the Quick. Nick Van Exel.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes. In the Laker game where he has, like a zillion assists, 23 assists.

[Alex Rucker]

And this guy, this is what he said. Because I'm a Laker fan, I gave Nick Van Exel, like, 23 assists one game. If he was vaguely close to a guy making a shot, I found a way to give him an assist.

[Pablo Torre]

So Immediately I want to just start fact checking this. Right. So when you look at this game, when you go back into the archive, Tom, and you go and see this game now with fresh eyes, what does it actually look like?

[Alex Rucker]

If you watch the film, the very first assist that Nick Van Exel has, it's not even on the screen. So the Vancouver Grizzlies just make a shot. Sharif Abdur Rahim, the star young player, makes a shot. Eldon Campbell takes the ball out and passes it to Nick Van Exel. Ostensibly, but we don't actually see it on film because we cut away to Sharif Abdur Rahim and then suddenly, left side of the court, Eddie Jones is dribbling up and takes five, dribbles on the left side and then pulls up for a pump fake three pointer. Way after the fact of. Maybe there was a Nick Van Exel phantom pass. We. We don't see it. It's not on the tape. When you look at the box score, I couldn't believe it. But the time stamp of that play is reflected in the box score. And it says Van Exel assists.

[Pablo Torre]

That feels like an assist by neither the letter or the spirit of the law.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah, yeah. And so there were 23 of these. Now, to be fair, there were legit assists here in this game. The idea isn't that he didn't have a good game, Nick Van Axel, it's that it wasn't a 15 assist game, it was a 23 assist game. And the key is you're More interested in 23 assists.

[Pablo Torre]

That's the only reason I remember it.

[Alex Rucker]

So I remember this moment. And now I'm learning it's all a lie.

[Pablo Torre]

So I should say maybe this is obvious. This is an enormous problem for the integrity of, like, the NBA itself. And so where does this story go from here?

[Alex Rucker]

It doesn't get contained in that Internet forum. Tommy Craggs at Deadspin picks it up. This is Deadspin we're talking here. At the peak of its powers. Craggs gets on the phone and talks to the Stackkeeper. But all I can think about is, who is this guy? And in the story, all we know is his name is Alex and he works in the Navy. And we also know that he worked for the Vancouver Grizzlies in the late 90s.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah, what I'm laughing at already is just the idea that this is your message board, Tom. You're a poster on this, on this nerd forum. And here's a guy who is basically taunting you, guy who worships numbers, saying by the way, turns out you can't actually trust the thing that you wanted to make your career around.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah. And so, like, part of me is just like, I need to know if this person's real. There's a mystery figure here.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[Alex Rucker]

And for 13 years, this story was dead until the Jaren Jackson Jr. Story happens.

[Pablo Torre]

Right. So, okay, so this. This Jaren Jackson alleged conspiracy on Reddit, another Internet forum story, ends up being debunked, but it rekindles in your brain the actual conspiracy that you believe to be a lot deeper than people may on the surface realize.

[Alex Rucker]

Right. And so it dawns on me, like, I. I need to go to the Internet to find my answer of who Alex is, but I'm going about it the wrong way. I'm going about it on Google. I should have been going to ebay.

[Pablo Torre]

So when you called me saying that you went to ebay and you found something, I was personally a little worried for just your sanity.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah, yeah. But you know what is on ebay? A lot of old documents. One of which is what's called a.

[Pablo Torre]

Media guide for the kids who don't appreciate the institution of the media guide. Back in our day, they used to print directories and send them out to media members.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah. Like, hey, what are the statistics from last year? There's no basketball reference. You need to open up the media guide.

[Pablo Torre]

A physical book.

[Alex Rucker]

A book to look at. Oh, this person was the 13th pick in the 1992 draft.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah. Here's the phone number for the assistant PR person.

[Alex Rucker]

That is where I needed to go. I needed to find Pablo. The 199697 Vancouver Grizzlies media guide.

[Pablo Torre]

How in demand was this lost artifact? What if literally no one but you, Tom Haberstrow, even gives the beginning of a about this?

[Alex Rucker]

There is one person who is not only giving a, but willing to sell that to anybody who wanted. It was for $5.

[Pablo Torre]

Tom, you've been dangling this reveal in front of me for so long.

[Alex Rucker]

This right here, it's like a.

[Pablo Torre]

Basically a clip art. A clipart cover, very glossy.

[Alex Rucker]

Look at this bear paaw right here.

[Pablo Torre]

A bear paw over an IBM mouse.

[Alex Rucker]

This is so 1997.

[Pablo Torre]

Look at this. Yes. Bryant Big country Reeves in the middle, holding a basketball with two giant paws, as it were.

[Alex Rucker]

We got Sharif Abdurrahim number three. Very excited Sharif, by the way.

[Pablo Torre]

And a literal map of the NBA, in case you didn't know where the Indiana Pacers were located.

[Alex Rucker]

So I wanted you to do something.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[Alex Rucker]

Okay. I want you to open up the Page real.

[Pablo Torre]

I've never held this before in my life.

[Alex Rucker]

How does it feel?

[Pablo Torre]

Oh, it's weighty.

[Alex Rucker]

I want you to open up to page 177. What does it say?

[Pablo Torre]

Vancouver Grizzlies, courtside crew. Italics, tea lettering, sans serif font. Yeah.

[Alex Rucker]

Okay. Lower on down. Yeah, there is a title there. Game caller, slash technical. The name next to that is Alex. Yes, Alex Rucker. I'm telling you, Pablo is felt. Like in Usual Suspects when the reveal happens, the Kaiser Sosey moment when he drops the mug on the floor, the.

[Pablo Torre]

Media guide falls to the floor. In my mind's eye, at your home.

[Alex Rucker]

And immediately.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah, this voice plays.

[Nick Van Exel]

I used to kind of oversee analytics and the research and development, data scientists, the computer geeks, if you will. And so now I oversee all the departments within basketball operations.

[Pablo Torre]

In some ways, this was like an inside job on a number of levels. Like, he's an. This is an analytics guy.

[Alex Rucker]

He should know full well about the sanctity of stats.

[Pablo Torre]

So what do you do with this information now that you know who Alex from the Navy actually is?

[Alex Rucker]

I call him.

[Strawberry Me]

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[Alex Rucker]

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[Pablo Torre]

Price estimates and read reviews all on the app.

[Alex Rucker]

Download today on WhatsApp, no one can.

[Pablo Torre]

See or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this.

[Alex Rucker]

So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those.

[Pablo Torre]

Late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay.

[Alex Rucker]

Between you, your friends and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately with everyone.

[Pablo Torre]

I want to make sure that people out there who don't know Alex Rucker intuitively. Tom. Yeah. Understand why this name means something. Who is Alex Rucker?

[Alex Rucker]

So Alex Rucker is one of the most well known figures in the NBA analytics movement. He was a pioneer of the Sport View data. Sport View is the camera tracking data where we can now see where everyone is on the floor, how fast they're going.

[Pablo Torre]

The revolution was around the accuracy of what was being recorded.

[Alex Rucker]

If you want the most efficient way to put two points in that basket, start learning how to do these predictive models with camera tracking data. And Alex Rucker was at the forefront. And not to say he was the only one, but this is one of the more well known characters in this space.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes. And he used that to then, and I remember this intimately, to then follow his former boss, Brian Colangelo, he of the very normal collars. Find a new slant to the Philadelphia 76 is replacing Sam Hinkey, of course, of the process, fame and my own personal neuroses. Al Trucker was the VP of analytics and strategy, the executive VP of basketball operations.

[Alex Rucker]

In 2020, he's running the 76ers alongside Elton Brand, the GM of the team. This is a guy who is that well known, that respected.

[Pablo Torre]

There were headlines.

[Alex Rucker]

The Philadelphia Inquirer had the headline sixers team of NBA stats gurus is taking analytics to the next level. Yeah, and a big picture of Alex. Then Dara Mora comes in and he takes over for basketball operations for the Philadelphia 76.

[Pablo Torre]

Always incestuous, the slowness of everything.

[Alex Rucker]

Here comes dork. Elvis.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah.

[Alex Rucker]

You know.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah, big footing, the previous guy. But that's. By the way, that's where I left Alex Rucker in my, in my brain. I didn't think about him until this.

[Alex Rucker]

Story and until I picked up that media guide, I hadn't really thought about Alex Rucker. But I had to confirm. I had to go straight to the source. I don't know how long we'll go, but you let me know if there's a hard out that you need to be gone for no man. And then we'll roll.

[Nick Van Exel]

Happy to chat.

[Alex Rucker]

All right. Three, two, one.

[Pablo Torre]

So when you make this, the zoom call, it turns out, which I imagine is fairly uncomfortable for, for Alex Rucker. What does he say when you confront him with the evidence that actually he might be the scammer who selectively edited NBA history?

[Alex Rucker]

Well, he owned up to it. First off, like, pretty quickly he owned. That was me. But here's why that happened. He was 20, Pablo, 20 years old, running the stats for a professional NBA team.

[Nick Van Exel]

I was immature. I handled things in a way that I certainly wouldn't today. But no, that's just a part of my life journey.

[Pablo Torre]

Right.

[Nick Van Exel]

Like, you know, I. It's funny as you kind of reach adulthood, to the extent that I've reached it, it's like every time I'll sit here and think back to how I was two or three years ago, and I always look back like, man, like, why did I do that? Why did I think that? And hopefully I continue on an arc of becoming, you know, a continually better person and refining who I am and, you know, having an impact on others in a positive and loving way. With all due respect, you put a 19, 20 year old in charge of anything and you're playing with fire, so.

[Pablo Torre]

So the very basic fact that a 1920 year old was in charge of the sacred numbers that we came to revere as just historical fact is already, like, jarring to me. How does somebody that young get the idea to even, like, do this, to get away with this?

[Alex Rucker]

He gets the idea to do this almost immediately upon arrival in Vancouver when.

[Nick Van Exel]

I first got the role. I'm bringing the computers home, I'm practicing by myself. I'm trying to develop these skills so that I can do the best I can once the first jump ball happens. My job is to create the most accurate historical record of what occurred in a game. And I learned very quickly that that was not the prevailing viewpoint. I went to the training in Detroit. Part of this training is they would show us video clips. They show us Stockton to Malone clip, and there's a discussion. And like, there's, you know, that wasn't an assist, it was a pass. And then, you know, Malone dribbled a couple times, pump fake, pump fake. And then, you know, made a tough shot. And that's great, but like, that's to me, not I didn't. There's no real connection. There's no causal connection between the pass and the basket. And the majority opinion by mile was, oh, no, that's definitely an assist. I was like, what? Like, oh, that's John Stockton. I'm like, yeah, I understand. But so I left there clearly understanding that, you know, yes, we are supposed to create the most accurate representation we can, but the NBA is also an entertainment business and it's up to us in very small part, statisticians to support and reinforce stars and excitement and fun. And that message was definitely reinforced internally within the Grizzlies.

[Pablo Torre]

So what he says to you there, Tom, is to me like pretty important, right? This message was definitely reinforced internally within the Grizzlies. So the team itself was actually in favor of this happening.

[Alex Rucker]

It wasn't just Alex Rucker, lone actor here. This was something endemic. This was something understood that you grease the wheels or you, you pump up the stats for your guys. When he says, yeah, John Stockton, the assertion right there is like, we need John Stockton to be a star. So we're making that in a sense, yes. But the Keith here is, this is the Vancouver Grizzlies, right? They're the new expansion team. They're in Canada. People don't know there's a team in Vancouver.

[Pablo Torre]

Right.

[Alex Rucker]

So how does a Stackkeeper market the team or have a role in marketing the team? Well, it's that. It's. What if Sharif Abdurrahim has 10 boards instead of nine boards because 10 will get you on SportsCenter. So how do you do that? You cook the books.

[Pablo Torre]

So the Nick Van Exel thing with that phantom assist, that wasn't even on screen. How did the Grizzlies feel about that? Because that's the opposing player.

[Alex Rucker]

He was actually congratulated after the game. Think about that.

[Pablo Torre]

By his employers.

[Alex Rucker]

By his employers saying, hey, good job out there. We're definitely going to be on SportsCenter.

[Pablo Torre]

Now that's incredible.

[Alex Rucker]

Like, that's how you market the team. Tom Haberstrough in a, in a kitchen in Connecticut is now gonna see that.

[Pablo Torre]

Teal Vancouver Grizzlies bear the claws.

[Alex Rucker]

There's Bryant Reeves. That's where he ended up in the NBA on the Vancouver Grizzlies. So that's part of how they marketed the team was through the Stackkeeper.

[Pablo Torre]

So when you adult grown up, Tommy, look at the numbers, right, and you see Shri Abdurrahim stats, how obvious is it that this was actually materially happening?

[Alex Rucker]

This was, this was pretty heartbreaking because when you look at what Alex is alleging and then you look at the numbers on basketball reference and you search or you, you filter for his Best block games. What I found out, that was in Sharif Abdur Rahim's first two seasons with the Grizzlies. He registered three plus blocks. At least three blocks in 13 games. In all 13 games, he was playing at home. Okay, two plus blocks.

[Pablo Torre]

Not exactly subtle so far.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah. How about multiple blocks? Okay. In those first two seasons, he had 38 games in which he had two plus blocks. 32 of them were at home.

[Pablo Torre]

So the invisible hand of Alex from the Navy, Alex Rucker is. Is pretty obvious in retrospect.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah. And he. In so many words with Deadspin, he admitted that, like a lot of the blocks and steals and assists, like, you could fudge a little bit. And Bryant Reeves and Sharif Abdur Rahim were part of that fudgery.

[Pablo Torre]

The fudgery as an incentive for specifically a team desperate for attention. How obvious was this to you when you look at the record beyond Vancouver? Yeah.

[Alex Rucker]

So I looked at the data of just which teams saw a large disparity between their home blocks and their away blocks.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes, exactly.

[Alex Rucker]

Okay. So I went from 1984 now to the present. That's when blocks started getting charted in the NBA. Officially in 1984, we had a thousand teams in NBA history that we have their block home away block record. The top four teams in disparity from home and away were the Toronto Raptors, the Toronto Raptors, and the Toronto Raptors. In this time period, three of the top four. 200% inflation at home. The Toronto Raptors in 97, 98, 99, 2000.

[Pablo Torre]

Like this era, the other expansion team boom in Canada. The thing that's almost offensive about this, though, is how unsubtle the expansion teams were doing this. Like, yeah, it's. The Canadian teams wanted people to know that they existed, which meant they needed to be on SportsCenter, like a top 10 plays highlight reel. And so they were juicing the statistics that involved this element of human subjectivity.

[Alex Rucker]

That's right. And the expansion teams, the Raptors and the Grizzlies, like, we know about them. But also, I've looked into the Pelicans, too. When New Orleans got their team and renamed it the Pelicans, they had huge block home away disparities too, of course. And so I'm like, all right, well, then this is an expansion story.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[Alex Rucker]

This is just like these new teams need to market. And how do you do that? You kind of, you know, twist the knobs a little bit.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah. An incredible fraud on its own.

[Alex Rucker]

But then I figured out that this was much more widespread than Just the expansion teams. This was everywhere and I had the data to back that up. Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today.

[Strawberry Me]

Well, I'm letting go of the worry.

[Alex Rucker]

That I wouldn't get my new contacts.

[Strawberry Me]

In time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast.

[Pablo Torre]

And breathe. Oh, sorry.

[Alex Rucker]

I almost couldn't breathe when I saw.

[Strawberry Me]

The discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste.

[Alex Rucker]

Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order.

[Pablo Torre]

1-800-Contacts put us in a box. Go ahead. That just gives us something to break out of because the next generation 2025.

[Tom Haberstro]

GMC terrain elevation is raising the standard.

[Pablo Torre]

Of what comes standard. As far as expectations go, why meet them when you can shatter them? What we choose to challenge, we challenge completely. We are professional grade. Visit gmc.com to learn more.

[Alex Rucker]

Summer's here and Nordstrom has everything you need for your best dress season ever. From beach days and weddings to weekend getaways in your everyday wardrobe. Discover stylish options under $100 from tons of your favorite brands like Mango Skims, Princess Polly and Madewell. It's easy too, with free shipping and free returns in store order pickup and more. Shop today in stores [e-mail] or download the Nordstrom app.

[Pablo Torre]

Before we get deeper into your numbers, which I am legitimately concerned about. What is Alex Rucker doing now? Like when you call him up and you zoom with him, where is he?

[Alex Rucker]

It turns out he's out of the NBA completely. He is the CEO of a boys and girls club in Texas. Gainesville, Texas.

[Pablo Torre]

But I do feel obliged to mention that one thing Alex Rucker never fudged, it seems, was his own military resume. Because after leaving the Grizzlies and messing with all the statistics, he did graduate from law school and he did become an actual United States naval aviator for more than like a decade. The dude really was Alex from the Navy. And so when he is watching the NBA game as this guy who is molding I presume with with in good faith the the futures of the youth of Gainesville, Texas. Watch is he thinking about basketball?

[Alex Rucker]

I didn't know how he was going to interpret this scoring era cuz like we're talking about inflation and Luca Doncic scoring 73 and bead 70. All these crazy like there's I've never.

[Pablo Torre]

Seen this before Tom. It just this egregious there there are.

[Alex Rucker]

Halftime scores that would be final scores 20 years ago, no question. And so here I wanted to ask Alex Rucker who was one of the architects of this fudgery inflation in the late 90s. And I want to ask him like what does he think about today's NBA?

[Nick Van Exel]

Is it bad for the league that what is it? There's a four 70 point performances in two years when it used to be one a decade? No, I mean, I mean if it was happening every game I might be concerned. But it's like this is a natural byproduct of a higher pace and a much higher efficiency and just frankly a better quality of offensive gameplay. And if, you know, if I'm sitting down and we're sitting around, you know, living room just chatting about it, to me this is the best basketball we have ever seen.

[Pablo Torre]

So what Alex Rucker is saying is that he is A, a fan of the modern game and B does not suspect that anyone like him is cooking the books to get the numbers to the historic highs they are now.

[Alex Rucker]

And initially I was thinking like, oh, this guy is going to identify, this is scamming too.

[Pablo Torre]

Like it wasn't just me back in.

[Alex Rucker]

The day, this is happening right now. And he said the opposite.

[Pablo Torre]

And he's saying also that the era of a stat scammer, a stat keeper scammer, it seems to be done. Like he's saying that don't even worry about someone like me doing something like what I did. Every play from a game is immediately seen by all of these eyeballs across the world as if we're all fact checking the game in real time now.

[Alex Rucker]

And so he thinks it's clean now.

[Nick Van Exel]

There's so much more scrutiny, oversight, review of it now where you should have a lot more faith and confidence in the data that's pumped out now than the data that was pumped out 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago. You know, in the 90s, ironically it's probably in the low 90s is my guess. Right? Like if you look at a stat sheet, among the non points stats, probably 90% ish accurate, maybe higher and now I would guess that it's north of 95.

[Pablo Torre]

I want to translate this estimation that Alex Rucker is doing for us, right? Because he's saying like back in the day when he was stat keeping, it was like, you know, I don't know, a B plus, A minus, at best 90ish percent accurate, but now it's an A plus, it's north of 95. He's not worried at all. But in the historical basketball record, Tom, as the Numbers guy, what does that gap actually look like in your understanding?

[Alex Rucker]

So he described it as assists were being given out like candy, like in the 90s when he was around. I think blocks were highly subjective, and the data bears out that when we go back to 1984, when blocks were first introduced into the box score, there is a 25% gap between the home block rate and the away block rate. Okay, what does that mean? That means for every three blocks, there's another fourth that that's given to the home team.

[Pablo Torre]

But, like, an extra freebie block for every three you get is literally like the difference between an all defensive team nomination. Potentially.

[Alex Rucker]

That's a huge gap between the two. But when you look at the numbers now, okay, the number of blocks for the home team this year, 4087. Okay. The number of blocks for the away team is 4026. So that's a gap of 61 blocks. It's basically equal, Right? You want to know what 84 was? The gap between home and away blocks.

[Pablo Torre]

1102, exponentially larger than the 61 block difference of today.

[Alex Rucker]

And when we look at the 97, 98 season, it's still over a thousand, man. So what does that look like in a graph? You can see in 1984 on the left there, there's a pretty big gap between the home team block rate 5.8 per game or per 48 minutes, and the away team is 4.7. But as we go through time, it starts to shrink. That gap continues to fade away until you get to now, where it's just about gone.

[Pablo Torre]

So what is undeniable is that the difference between home and road in terms of blocks has basically converged into nothing when it comes to the difference between being away and getting your friendly neighborhood scorekeeper to cook your books for you.

[Alex Rucker]

And this kind of matters because when I think about my childhood, right, I think about, like. Like, take LeBron. Okay? LeBron versus MJ, right? This is the most radioactive debate amongst maybes in sports, right?

[Pablo Torre]

Yes. We're reciting numbers. Like, we are making arguments about, you know, my dad could beat up your dad.

[Alex Rucker]

Yes, yes. And in the context of Michael Jordan, LeBron, this is really important. A lot of times we say LeBron didn't win Depoy Defensive Player of the Year. Michael Jordan did in 1988.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes. This is an enormous plank in the Michael Jordan political campaign.

[Alex Rucker]

So I had this moment of, like. I mean, I had Jordan posters in my room, right? And I'm like, wait, the. The 88 depoy can't be a lie. Please don't. When I pulled up Basketball reference, this is what I saw in his stat line. Home and away splits, 165 steals at home, 94 steals away, 84 blocks on at home, 47 blocks about half away.

[Pablo Torre]

And that's pretty bad. 80% when it comes to like how obvious that gap is, it's huge.

[Alex Rucker]

And like maybe that's random variation. Right. But we can't know for sure. But what we have here is Alex Rucker saying in that era it was endemic that stat keepers for their home team were juicing the stats.

[Pablo Torre]

I remember Alex Rucker saying the NBA is entertainment too. And they were, they were trying actively to create to boost their stars. The John Stockton's of the world. So why would Michael Jordan be exempt from the same training that literally the scorekeepers were given to make the sport more popular?

[Alex Rucker]

It's possible Michael Jordan was just really good at blocks at home. Like it's possible that he was 80% better at home at blocking shots.

[Pablo Torre]

And Benny the Bull around was somehow this inspirational. Yeah. Phenomenon for him defensively.

[Alex Rucker]

Yes. And hearing the music coming out onto.

[Pablo Torre]

The floor just made him Alan Parsons project, made him that much of a better defender.

[Alex Rucker]

Springy. More springy or anticipating the shots better. And there's, there's some theory that like this isn't stack keeper bias. This is like the opponent is worse on the road and so therefore easier to block. But why wouldn't that be true right now?

[Pablo Torre]

That's the thing is your big picture analysis that shows that individually maybe all of these things can make it very noisy. Yes. And hard to isolate why this is happening. But the big picture makes it pretty clear that this difference has vanished.

[Alex Rucker]

And it also brings in my other childhood hero, Vince Carter. Like watching him at North Carolina completely enchanted me. He was high flying, could shoot, the way he moved, it was beautiful. And what team did he join?

[Pablo Torre]

The Toronto Raptors. He made basketball in Canada a thing.

[Alex Rucker]

At what time, what era was this? The late 90s. And so of course I look so what?

[Pablo Torre]

Wait, so okay, what is on the Vince Carter resume that now looks quite different in the light of day?

[Alex Rucker]

His rookie season he averaged 1.5 blocks, which by the way, for a guard, that's insane.

[Pablo Torre]

Say that's a lot.

[Alex Rucker]

That's a lot. He wins rookie of the Year. But then you look at the splits. 55 blocks at home, 22 on the road. Not good. Doesn't make me feel good.

[Pablo Torre]

Those thirsty Canadian scorekeepers.

[Alex Rucker]

Bad men. Not Vitz.

[Pablo Torre]

Carter too half man. Half inflation.

[Alex Rucker]

Right. And the 60s were too. Like 60s had 130 possessions a game in Wilt's era, like the Oscar Robertson era had.

[Pablo Torre]

Now you're coming for Wilt and Oscar.

[Alex Rucker]

What I'm coming for, Pablo, is everybody, everybody. And I think going through this, it makes me appreciate that like maybe the 60s era, Wilt's 100 points and the Oscar Robertson. We can't even fact check that. Cause there's no film.

[Pablo Torre]

It is worth noting, by the way, how hard it is to even get film of games from the late 1990s, let alone the 60s. Like that Ben Nexo clip from 97 that we showed you earlier in the episode that came to us because of a young NBA fan in Latvia named Reinis Latsis. And Rinus runs a site called lamarmatic.com and what he had told Tom is that he had gotten his Van Axel video from an underground Internet marketplace where people trade digitized VHS tapes of old NBA games. That is what it takes to fact check statistics from the 1990s.

[Alex Rucker]

The deeper we go in NBA history, it feels like the more we don't know.

[Pablo Torre]

What else are you trying to ruin here, Todd?

[Alex Rucker]

Saying this is. These are the emotions I was going through was. Wait a minute. It's all a lie.

[Pablo Torre]

I mean, this is the part where it gets uncomfortable for us.

[Alex Rucker]

I mean, we gotta go there. Right? Like we gotta talk about what this all means.

[Pablo Torre]

Tom, we have made careers zagging away from the zig of the eye test. Right. Trust the numbers.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah.

[Pablo Torre]

It's the thing in our civilization that stands as proof of objectivity. Sports and specifically statistics. It's not. It's not an artistic subjective review. Because there's definitionally a scoreboard.

[Alex Rucker]

Yeah.

[Pablo Torre]

And these numbers, we have something that is the closest thing to truth.

[Alex Rucker]

We thought.

[Pablo Torre]

We thought.

[Alex Rucker]

This is one thing Alex Rucker mentioned to me and it stuck with me in my head is it's good to have a healthy appreciation, a healthy respect, a healthy skepticism of data.

[Pablo Torre]

Right. If the incentives are to make the game popular by giving people what they want, which is points. And we lose the ability to both interview the people who were, as Alex Rucker was self, admittedly guilty of juicing the game themselves. And also we lose the ability to even look at the tape, as you put it. It just feels like we are obligated to ask more questions about the things that we consider historical. Quote, unquote, fact.

[Alex Rucker]

Right. Statistical record. It's. Now we have to revisit it. Look, is today's NBA objectively pure? Pablo like is this, is this the purest form of basketball?

[Pablo Torre]

Because we now have the statistical controls on the scorekeepers to fact check them in real time.

[Alex Rucker]

Is the human element removed from the game?

[Pablo Torre]

What do you think?

[Alex Rucker]

I think the human element is appearing in a different form. The NBA knows because they've done this with focus groups. They tell the viewers to dial up how much enjoyment you're getting out of watching a game.

[Pablo Torre]

Right.

[Alex Rucker]

People are dialing it up, their enjoyment when there's high scoring, more scoring. Right. So is there manipulation in today's NBA game? I don't think it's taken the form of a stackkeeper on the sidelines. I think the manipulation comes in kind of like behind the scenes, like from up top.

[Pablo Torre]

Right. Like the league office deciding we want faster paced games that are more open.

[Alex Rucker]

We're going to introduce freedom of movement rules so that Steph Curry can break free and get shots off. So Pablo, what I found out today is that there's two inflations we're talking about here, right? There's the inflation of, hey, there's so many, so many points being scored now the games are 150 to 152 and, and Luka Dod is 73. That's a certain type of inflation. And so there's that like where the league is prioritizing certain parts of the game that they want to see.

[Pablo Torre]

But the title of the most inflated era in NBA history, which is what so many people are declaring the modern game to be, who deserves that title? Now that we've done our investigation, the.

[Alex Rucker]

Era that we're most nostalgic about, it's the Jordan era.

[Pablo Torre]

It's our childhoods, man.

[Alex Rucker]

The Alan Parsons Project. The Bulls, just the, the Dream Team.

[Pablo Torre]

80S and the 90s.

[Alex Rucker]

Magic Larry, that's the pure league, right?

[Pablo Torre]

Back when men were men and were earning every point at every block except for when a guy in a media guide tells you, actually I was boosting, literally inflating the numbers because this whole thing has been show business in a way that was quite real. What we have found out today is that the human element has always been a part of the thing that we made our careers on, which is you guys need to stop trusting your eyes and start trusting math.

[Alex Rucker]

Start trusting the data till the data is impure.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah. Tom Haberstro, thank you for ruining everything that we hold dear.

[Alex Rucker]

I'm sorry. Oh man, I just need to take a bath after that one. Speaking of impure, I just need to clean myself up.

[Pablo Torre]

And this cardigan has never been sweatier. For more Tom Haverstro. By the way, tomthefinder.com is his substack. You'll find high level data driven insights and analyses. But for now this has been Pablo Torre finds out a Metal Arc Media production and we'll talk to you next time.