Podcast Summary: Unexplainable – "No data, just vibes" (Jan 26, 2026)

Overview

This episode of Unexplainable explores the importance of federal data collection in science and public health, and the alarming consequences of recent rollbacks under the second Trump administration. Hosted by Meredith Hodinot, the conversation features Vox reporters Dylan Scott (health) and Umair Irfan (science & climate), who break down how key government agencies and their data-gathering missions have been dismantled or disrupted. They discuss the cascading effects—on research, policy, public trust, and our fundamental understanding of reality—when robust, publicly available government data disappears.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Vital Role of Federal Data

• Historical Impact: Blood lead level surveys by the CDC in the 1970s led to sweeping health regulations and massive reductions in lead exposure.
  • “Survey data ... is the bedrock of good science, so it can profoundly impact our everyday lives.” (Meredith Hodinot, 01:58)
• The federal government is uniquely positioned to collect large-scale, reliable data across the nation.
  • “The federal government is like the biggest public health pollster that we have.” (Dylan Scott, 03:10)
• Only the federal government can deploy resources—like nationwide surveys, weather satellites, and environmental monitoring networks—at the required scale.
  • “Without this, we have a much more murky picture of what's going on in the country.” (Umair Irfan, 03:54)

Erosion of Data Collection Under the Trump Administration

• In the past year, key data-gathering offices like the EPA’s Office of Research and Development have been shuttered.
  • “The United States is now functioning without one of the most robust and best institutions that was doing this kind of work.” (Umair Irfan, 05:20)
• Deliberate Suppression: Government efforts to remove or obscure climate change data, e.g., Project 2025 and deleting climate references.
  • “Literally deleting the words ‘climate change’ in some cases ... There’s a pretty deliberate effort to stop data collection, to stop scientific research around the climate.” (Umair Irfan, 05:37)

Impact on Health, Science, and Everyday Life

• Reduced Data Collection: Certain health and demographic categories may not be tracked (e.g., LGBTQ health data, opioid overdose trends), leaving major blind spots.
  • “The administration just won’t collect data related to LGBTQ people. We’re going to have a much fuzzier picture into what's happening with those folks and their health.” (Dylan Scott, 06:41)
• Funding Cuts: Layoffs and changes at agencies like NIH reduce the capacity for critical research—both in monitoring problems and finding medical solutions.
  • “We won’t know what we missed out on ... we’re going to miss out on something as a result of these cuts.” (Dylan Scott, 08:20)
• Invisible Consequences: The lack of data will likely be invisible for years, leading to slow response times to emerging health or climate crises.
  • “Our blind spots are getting bigger and because those blind spots are getting bigger, we are more likely to get blindsided.” (Meredith Hodinot, 09:54)
• Trust at Risk: As public data sources shrink, trust in institutions (like weather forecasting) erodes—potentially endangering lives during disasters.
  • “If you don’t trust your weather forecast, are you going to believe when they issue an evacuation warning for a hurricane?” (Umair Irfan, 10:08)

Can We Recover Lost Ground?

• Archiving Efforts: Nonprofits and academics are racing to preserve government data before it disappears, but these efforts are small-scale and cannot replicate ongoing federal collection.
  • “In terms of the collection of the data itself, nothing really rivals the US Federal government ... it’s always going to be a stopgap measure.” (Umair Irfan, 13:34)
• Limits of Private Data: Private companies may fill some gaps but often have incentives (like paywalls) that reduce public access.
  • “Some of this publicly available information ... could end up behind a paywall.” (Umair Irfan, 15:32)
• Global Effects: The U.S. cutting climate monitoring cripples worldwide scientific efforts.
  • “The whole world is going to be losing an important measurement tool.” (Umair Irfan, 16:42)

Practical Struggles for Journalists and Researchers

• Reporters now face significant friction to answer basic questions, as official databases disappear.
  • “There used to be central places where I could reliably go to find basic facts ... They took that database offline.” (Umair Irfan, 17:02)

The Danger of Ideological Resistance to Data

• Data itself is often perceived as apolitical, but deciding what to measure and how is inherently political.
  • “People often think of data as this completely objective, apolitical, bloodless thing, and it’s not. There’s a lot of political decisions and value judgments that go into data collection.” (Umair Irfan, 20:45)
• The Trump administration’s solution to imperfect data is to stop collecting it or to question the validity of all data.
  • “They acknowledge an imperfect picture, and their solution is to not look at the picture at all.” (Umair Irfan, 21:00)
• Motivated reasoning—seeking data to match a predetermined conclusion—undermines scientific integrity.
  • “If you reach a conclusion first and then look backwards for the numbers that will support you, very likely you’ll find those numbers. But that’s not how you do science.” (Umair Irfan, 21:44)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the vanishing of trustworthy data:
  • “The reliability of that data might be more doubtful than it was in the past. An asterisk on every research paper that cites it might be appropriate.” – Dylan Scott (14:10)
• On the changing relationship to official sources:
  • “If the official sources are not aligning with your priors, you can find somebody else. And that ... sows distrust in the official sources of information.” – Dylan Scott (19:31)
• On the future’s unknowables:
  • “There are going to be health problems, health trends ... that we’re going to look back and think like we could have gotten on this sooner.” – Dylan Scott (09:00)
• Summing up the risk:
  • “Our blind spots are getting bigger and because those blind spots are getting bigger, we are more likely to get blindsided.” – Meredith Hodinot (09:54)
• Political choices behind science:
  • “There’s a lot of motivated reasoning going on here and that’s why this ... pushback on the numbers and trying to erode how we measure the world is so important and so troubling.” – Umair Irfan (21:59)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Lead survey and the bedrock of good science: 00:41–01:58
• Why federal data is irreplaceable: 03:10–04:21
• EPA Office of Research and Development shutdown: 04:33–05:26
• Deliberate erasure of climate change data: 05:37–06:38
• Rollbacks in health data collection and funding: 06:41–08:54
• Invisible and long-term consequences: 09:00–10:08
• Loss of public trust and social harms: 10:08–10:31
• Private/Nonprofit archiving efforts and their limits: 13:34–14:10
• Private sector’s role and challenges in filling the gap: 15:32–16:57
• Practical challenges for reporting: 17:02–18:22
• The ideological fight over data itself: 19:20–21:59

Tone and Language

The conversation is urgent yet measured, with reporters expressing both technical expertise and deep concern about the future of knowledge, research, and trust in American life.

For listeners, this episode reveals not just the details of disappearing public data, but also its real-world consequences—reminding us that without robust government science, we’re left not with facts, but just vibes.