Unexplainable – "The Codfather"

Podcast: Unexplainable (Vox)
Episode: The Codfather
Date: February 25, 2026
Host: Noam Hassenfeld
Guest: Ian Coss (host of "Catching the Codfather")
Theme: The story of Carlos Rafael, "The Codfather," New Bedford’s notorious fishing mogul; scientific attempts to count fish, the resulting mistrust between regulators, scientists, and fishermen, and what it says about science and trust in America.

Episode Overview

This episode explores the tangled web of fishery science, industry regulation, and the notorious case of Carlos Rafael—a.k.a. "The Codfather"—who built a fishing empire in New Bedford, Massachusetts through a combination of business prowess and outright fraud. The episode investigates the massive mistrust between scientists, government regulators, and fishermen over how fish are counted and managed, and what happens when a system’s scientific credibility breaks down. The story reveals how deep-seated skepticism of scientific data can have consequences reaching far beyond the fishing industry, touching on themes of economics, culture, identity, and authority.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Who is "The Codfather"?

[01:47-02:54]

• Carlos Rafael became the dominant fishing mogul in New Bedford, MA, even as tighter regulations and dwindling stocks squeezed his competitors.

• Nicknamed "The Codfather," Rafael was a polarizing figure: admired, resented, and suspected.

  “The American dream. It’s a certain amount of sacrifice you gotta make. And they say, Locke. Locke. Bullshit. You have to go look for Locke. Luck doesn’t come to you.”
  — Carlos Rafael [02:11]

• IRS investigators grew suspicious, posing as Russian businessmen to uncover Rafael’s secrets; rather than uncovering drugs or guns, they found… fish.

  “They show up in their full getup. Rolex watches, pinky rings, Versace belt, and Louis Vuitton shoes.”
  — Ian Coss [03:43]

• The case revealed a secret set of books, documenting off-the-books fish sales.

  “I go in the bottom drawer and I got another set of books that just says cash.”
  — Carlos Rafael [04:39]

2. Fish Counting: The Science and the Skepticism

[06:16-16:15]

Why is Counting Fish So Hard?

• Fish move, hide, and live in immense, inaccessible environments ("Two things I know about fish: they’re in the water and they move around" — Noam Hassenfeld [07:32]).
• The federal government uses "trawl surveys"—systematic net-dragging in randomized ocean quadrants—to estimate populations.

Conflicting Perspectives: Scientists vs. Fishermen

• Marine biologist Linda Desprez pioneered survey techniques, facing both sexism and adventurous challenges (“We brought up anchors, we brought up the kitchen sink, we brought up tires.” — Linda Desprez [11:01]).

• Fisherman Tony Alvarez (and many peers) deeply mistrust survey methods, arguing outdated nets miss substantial catches, making data unreliable.

  “In my opinion, your data sucks.”
  — Carlos Rafael [11:49]

• Surveys are seen as "scripture": whatever the survey finds, that’s the law for the year, regardless of fishermen’s experience.

  “This is the boat that sets the rules. This is like the voice of God.”
  — Noam Hassenfeld [12:32]

Trawlgate and the "Perfect Storm" of Mistrust

• "Trawlgate" (2002): mismatched net lines rendered government trawls unreliable for years—a huge scandal cementing mistrust.

• Later, a new survey vessel and updated net technology led to a disconnect between old data and new, deepening suspicion.

• At the same time, fish numbers tanked (possibly due to environmental warming), compounding uncertainty.

  “A perfect storm for mistrust.”
  — Ian Coss [17:59]

3. The Symbolic Meaning of Cod

[21:26-23:14]

• Cod isn’t just a fish; it’s the symbolic foundation of New England’s identity and economy.

  • The “Sacred Cod” hangs in the Massachusetts State House—a five-foot wooden cod above the House chamber.

  “Counting the cod is not just counting fish. This is like counting the soul of Massachusetts. … It’s counting the symbol of our abundance and God-given fortune.”
  — Ian Coss [23:06, 23:14]

4. Regulations, Choke Species, and the Incentive Problem

[24:10-28:00]

• After survey data reported dramatic declines, catastrophic quota cuts followed (e.g., 77% reduction in 2013 for Gulf of Maine cod).

• Fishermen face "choke species" challenges: once you meet your cod quota (even accidentally), you’re done for the season—even if you’re targeting other fish.

• Three choices:

  1. Buy expensive extra quota;
  2. Secretly discard (and waste) over-quota fish (illegal, but common);
  3. Fraudulently relabel the catch—exactly what Carlos Rafael did.

  “This is a lose-lose for everyone. Nobody gets to eat the fish. … It is pure waste. This is the unintended consequence of this regulation at that time.”
  — Ian Coss [27:04]

  “He was like the buyer and the seller… He called it painting the fish. ... 'I can paint the fish any color I want.'”
  — Ian Coss quoting Carlos Rafael [30:18, 30:38]

5. Carlos Rafael’s Downfall and the Mistrust Ecosystem

[30:49-34:08]

• Rafael eventually pleaded guilty in 2017, hit with raids, permit freezes, and a prison sentence.

• Despite this, public opinion in New Bedford is mixed: many express ambivalence or even sympathy.

  “Some people I would meet… I would ask them straight out, do you think what Carlos did is wrong? And they would tell me, no, no, he was right.”
  — Ian Coss [32:31]

• Root cause: broad-based and deeply shared mistrust of rule-making and scientific data, especially when regulations threaten livelihoods.

  “Carlos could not have gotten away with it for so long if there weren’t a whole lot of other people around him who shared that mistrust.”
  — Ian Coss [33:28]

6. Trust in Science: Lessons and Reflections

[34:08-39:13]

• Both scientists and fishermen possess forms of expertise—one scientific, one experiential—but the two are often irreconcilable.

• Attempts at data-driven persuasion fail in the face of entrenched mistrust.

  “The scientist does not win that argument with logic and data... When that mistrust is there and it’s so deep, you’re never going to break through that. You have to get it back to a place of shared understanding and working together.”
  — Ian Coss [36:15]

  “If you have difficult science … and they don’t trust it, you do not overcome that mistrust by proving that you are right. You need to somehow incorporate their worldview and their understanding…”
  — Ian Coss [37:47]

• Final message from a regulator (2014) at a fishery meeting:

  “You can have the best science in the world, and if there isn’t an understanding of that, it just simply doesn’t matter.”
  — Regional Regulator [38:34]

  “It doesn’t matter if people don’t believe it.”
  — Ian Coss [38:58]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Carlos Rafael on the “Codfather” nickname:

  “We gonna have to call him the Codfather. And that stupid shit stuck.”
  [03:05]

• On trawl survey skepticism:

  “In my opinion, your data sucks.”
  — Carlos Rafael [11:49] “This is the boat that sets the rules. This is like the voice of God.”
  — Noam Hassenfeld [12:32] “The net would make scripture.”
  — Carlos Rafael / Tony Alvarez paraphrased [12:35]

• On fraud and “painting the fish”:

  “The more rules they put on my ass, I’ll keep painting the son of a bitch.”
  — Carlos Rafael [30:38]

• On integrating local knowledge:

  “You need to somehow incorporate their worldview and their understanding, their curiosity, their knowledge into what you’re doing.”
  — Ian Coss [37:47]

• Final plea for trust:

  “You can have the best science in the world, and if there isn’t an understanding of that, it just simply doesn’t matter.”
  — Fishery Regulator [38:34]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:47] – Introduction of Carlos Rafael, his reputation, and the Codfather operation.
• [04:39] – Discovery of the cash ledger and fraudulent “painting” of fish labels.
• [06:16–09:13] – How fish populations are scientifically counted (trawl surveys).
• [11:49] – Fishermen’s criticism of scientific methods.
• [15:05] – "Trawlgate" scandal and its lasting impact.
• [21:26] – Symbolic/cultural significance of cod in New England.
• [24:10–27:41] – Quota cuts, choke species, waste, and fraud mechanics.
• [30:39] – Rafael's confession and evasion methods.
• [32:31] – Ambivalence and sympathy for Rafael within the local community.
• [34:08] – Reflections on trust, expertise, and the persistent distrust divide.
• [38:34] – The regulator’s call for rebuilding trust and shared understanding.

Episode Takeaways

• Fishery science is an extraordinarily challenging, imperfect process; mismatches in expertise, priorities, and lived experience breed deep mistrust between scientists and working communities.
• When communities lose faith in scientific systems, persuasion with more data is ineffective; rebuilding trust requires engaging other forms of knowledge, lived experience, and honest partnership.
• The Codfather scandal was not just about fraud—it was about how systemic distrust can corrode institutions, creating an environment where wide-scale deception is tolerated and sometimes even justified.
• Questions about who counts, who decides, and who benefits are universal across all scientific policymaking, far beyond the ocean.

Further Listening

• For a deeper dive into the full story of Carlos Rafael, check out season 3 of "The Big Dig" podcast: "Catching the Codfather."